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Motilal wonderla 02_feb15
1. 30 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Entertainment
Wonderla Holidays
Niket Shah (Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Atul Mehra (Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com) / Sagar K Shah (SagarK@MotilalOswal.com)
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
CMP: INR325 TP: INR410 (+26%) Buy29,183 8,809
Bloomberg WONH IN
Equity Shares (m) 56.5
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 18.4/0.3
52-Week Range (INR) 356/125
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -1/36/-
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 159/597
Free float (%) 29
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR 2015E 2016E 2017E
Sales 1.8 2.1 3.2
EBITDA 0.9 1.1 1.5
NP 0.5 0.6 0.9
EPS (INR) 9.1 11.2 15.7
Gr. (%) -4.0 23.2 39.5
BV/Sh(INR) 63.1 71.4 83.6
RoE (%) 20.4 16.7 20.2
RoCE (%) 29.4 24.9 30.2
P/E (x) 35.6 28.9 20.7
P/BV (x) 5.2 4.6 3.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Performance marred by one-offs; strong long term potential
Revenue growth in line; footfalls hit as schools refrain from picnics: Wonderla
Holidays (WONH) reported 3QFY15 numbers with a revenue of INR474m (est.
INR459m), compared to INR410m in 3QFY14, marking a YoY growth of 15.4%. Footfalls
grew 1% YoY, while ARPU was up 16%. Post the July incident of a girl child being
molested on school premises, Bangalore police has raised the safety norms for
schools. A fallout of this is been felt in the amusement park industry as schools are
refraining from picnics, amid safety concerns. Hence, footfalls from schools, which
form 25% of Bangalore park’s and 30% of Kochi, have been significantly impacted.
Margins lower due to one-offs; PAT growth impacted by higher tax rate: EBITDA
grew by 8.4% this quarter to INR209m (est. INR221m), while EBITDA margin stood at
44.1% (est. 48%) in 3QFY15, a decline of 300bp YoY. Certain one-offs impacted
margins: 1) increase in operating costs (INR6m) due to new recruitments done in
existing parks for transfer to Hyderabad park and 2) increase in operating costs due to
unscheduled maintenance of some rides (INR10m). PAT for 3QFY15 grew 3% YoY and
stood at INR128m (est. INR134m), impacted by higher tax rate (31% v/s 19%).
Hyderabad park launch on track, significant room for margin expansion:
Management highlighted that with all approvals already being in place, Hyderabad
park is on track for launch by March, 2016. In line with its aggressive growth plans,
management is looking to finalize land acquisition for Chennai park shortly.
Management is confident that from a long term perspective ARPU’s will sustain annual
growth of 7-8% along with footfall growth of 4-5% for existing parks. With huge
inherent operating leverage, margins for existing parks can thus touch ~60%.
Valuation and view: We expect WONH’s revenue to clock 25% CAGR to INR3.2b over
FY14-17E and PAT CAGR of 27.1% to INR886m over FY14-17E. In our view, over the
next 10 years, amusement parks will emerge as a strong avenue for entertainment as
penetration improves substantially. We believe the company is on track to be a pan
India player over the long run and will be a major beneficiary of the amusement park
industry’s development. The stock trades at 29x FY16E and 21x FY17E earnings and we
value WONH at 26x FY17E EPS, with a target price of INR410, given its strong industry
positioning, multiple growth opportunities and high entry barriers. Maintain Buy.
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
2. 30 January 2015 2
Wonderla Holidays
Revenue growth in-line; footfalls suffer as schools refrain from picnics
n Wonderla Holidays reported 3QFY15 numbers with a top-line of INR474m (est.
INR459m) as compared to INR410m in 3QFY14, marking a YoY growth of 15.4%.
n Footfalls grew 1% YoY to 6,41,000 for 3QFY15, while ARPU grew 16% to INR709.
n Post July incident of a six-year old girl child being molested while at school,
police authorities in Bangalore have mandated numerous safety guidelines for
all schools to ensure high degree of security for children.
n These included ID cards for parents who picked their children up from school,
having all school staff registered with local police, CCTVs in all classrooms, and
buses and vigilance officers in glass cabins on every floor of the school building.
n An impact of this has been felt on the amusement park industry, causing schools
to refrain from picnics as they look to firm up their safety standards.
n WONH management highlighted that footfalls from the institutional business
which form 25% of Bangalore park footfalls and 30% of Kochi park footfalls have
been significantly impacted due to avoidance of picnics by schools.
Exhibit 1: Revenue growth at 15% YoY
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 2: Footfall growth flat at -1%
Source: Company, MOSL
Margins lower on account of one-offs
n EBITDA grew by 8.4% this quarter to INR209m (est. INR221m), EBITDA
margins stood at 44.1% (est. 48%) in 3QFY15, a decline of 300bps YoY.
n Certain one-offs impacted margins, like 1) Increase in operating costs due to
new recruitments done in existing parks for transfer to Hyderabad. 2)
Increase in operating costs due to unscheduled maintenance of some rides.
n Management highlighted that in the absence of these one-offs margins
would have remained flattish YoY at 47%.
Exhibit 3: EBITDA margins decline due to one-offs
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 4: PAT flat due to higher tax rate
Source: Company, MOSL
410
474
15%
3QFY14 3QFY15
Revenues (INR m) Growth(%)
649 641
-1%
3QFY14 3QFY15
Footfalls (In'000s) Growth(%)
193
209
47%
44%
3QFY14 3QFY15
EBITDA (INR m) Margins (%)
124
128
3%
3QFY14 3QFY15
PAT (INR m) Growth(%)
3. 30 January 2015 3
Wonderla Holidays
Bangalore park performance
n Bangalore posted 15% revenue growth led by 14.6% growth in pricing.
Exhibit 5: 3QFY15 performance of Bangalore park
Particulars 3QFY14 3QFY15 YoY (%)
Total Revenues (INR m) 217 250 15.0%
No of Visitors (In ‘000) 310 311 0.3%
Avg. Revenue Per Visitor (INR) 700 802 14.6%
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: 9MFY15 performance of Bangalore park
Particulars 9MFY14 9MFY15 YoY (%)
Total Revenues (INR m) 676 830 22.7%
No of Visitors (In ‘000) 917 997 8.7%
Avg. Revenue Per Visitor (INR) 737 833 13.0%
Source: Company, MOSL
Kochi park performance
n Kochi posted 13.5% revenue growth led by 16.7% growth in pricing.
Exhibit 7: 3QFY15 performance of Kochi park
Particulars 3QFY14 3QFY15 YoY (%)
Total Revenues (INR m) 181 205 13.5%
No of Visitors (In ‘000) 339 330 -2.7%
Avg. Revenue Per Visitor (INR) 533 622 16.7%
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 8: 9MFY15 performance of Kochi park
Particulars 9MFY14 9MFY15 YoY (%)
Total Revenues (INR m) 491 578 17.7%
No of Visitors (In ‘000) 833 845 1.4%
Avg. Revenue Per Visitor (INR) 590 684 15.9%
Source: Company, MOSL
Bangalore resort performance
n Bangalore resort posted 57% revenue growth led improvement in occupancy
rates from 31.6% to 50.3%. ARR’s for the hotel were flat YoY.
Exhibit 9: 3QFY15 performance of Bangalore resort
Particulars 3QFY14 3QFY15 YoY (%)
Total Revenues (INR m) 17.9 28.1 57.0%
Occupancy (%) 31.6% 50.3% 59.2%
Avg. Room Rental for the period (INR) 4,386 4,387 0.0%
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 10: 9MFY15 performance of Bangalore resort
Particulars 9MFY14 9MFY15 YoY (%)
Total Revenues (INR m) 48 80.2 67.1%
Occupancy (%) 26.9% 48.9% 81.8%
Avg. Room Rental for the period (INR) 4,342 4,324 -0.4%
Source: Company, MOSL
4. 30 January 2015 4
Wonderla Holidays
PAT subdued due to higher tax rate
n Other income stood at INR21m as against INR5m in 3QFY14, while tax rate for
the quarter stood at 31.1% as against 19.5% in 3QFY14.
n Consequently, PAT for 3QFY15 stood at INR128m (est. INR134m) as compared
to INR124m in 3QFY14 marking a YoY growth of 3%.
Hyderabad park launch on track for March - 2016
n Management highlighted that all approvals, including land acquisition, are well
in place and construction is as per schedule.
n The park is likely to become operational by March, 2016 and contains the
capacity to entertain as much as 9,000-10,000 people in a single day.
n Construction has started at Hyderabad in full swing and expected to be
completed as per planned schedule.
n During the quarter, management recruited personnel in existing parks and they
are undergoing training for transfer to Hyderabad.
Exhibit 11: Construction of Wonder Splash
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 12: Construction of Tower building
Source: Company, MOSL
Other major conference call highlights
n Management guided that footfall growth for 4QFY15 as well is expected to be
subdued due to negative growth in institutional school children footfalls.
n Price paid by institutional buyers like schools are subsidized to the extent of 50%
n Management doesn’t see the World Cup impacting footfalls, in line with past
trends. On the negative side, something like a Swine Flu can impact footfalls.
n Management maintains capex guidance of INR0.3b for FY15 / INR2.5b for FY16.
n Gaming centers in malls are one form of indirect competition for amusement
parks from a long term potential.
n Management is confident that ARPU’s will sustain annual growth of 7-8% from a
long term perspective along with footfall growth of 4-5% for existing parks.
n NRIs footfalls in Kochi park are minuscule, hence direct impact of lower crude oil
prices and lower spends will not impact as much.
n Given, 2015 has a number of long weekends; footfalls will be positively
impacted for FY16. Peak margins for existing parks can touch ~60%.
n Management is scouting for land in Chennai for its 4th
amusement park.
5. 30 January 2015 5
Wonderla Holidays
Valuation and View
We value WONH at 26x FY17E EPS with a target price of INR410, which we believe is
justified considering:
n Company is one of the largest and most profitable parks in India. With the new
park opening in Hyderabad in FY17, we believe it has huge potential to grow.
n There are ~140 amusement parks in India, of which only ~10% are of large
formats. Thus, the competition intensity is very low.
n Development of an amusement park requires huge capex and operational
expertise to be successful. Hence, it is a huge entry barrier for new entrants.
n Lack of any large amusement park in the vicinity of Bangalore and Kochi gives a
huge advantage.
n Globally, most large amusement parks are loss-making and are trading at 22.2x,
19.2x and 18.1x FY15E, FY16E and FY17E PE. We believe that a target multiple of
26x to WONH is justified given its profitable operations, experienced
management and significant opportunity for amusement parks’ growth in India.
We believe the following factors can pose risks to our estimates:
n Any occurrence of accidents or mishaps at amusement parks exposes the
company to possible financial liabilities and legal proceedings, resulting in
adverse publicity.
n Lower-than-expected footfall growth for Hyderabad park and a decline in
footfall growth for existing matured parks such as Bangalore and Kochi can
significantly affect company’s earnings.
n Any delay in completion of construction of Hyderabad park can delay our
earnings estimates.
n Company is currently focused only on South markets. Any political instability,
natural calamity or epidemic breakout in the Southern region may result in
significant lowering of our earnings estimates.
n Environmental risk like floods, heavy rainfalls etc can significantly affect the
footfall growth. Kochi saw de-growth in footfalls due to heavy rainfalls.
Exhibit 13: Global peer comparison
Market Sales EBITDA Margin (%) RoE (%) P/E (x)
Company Name Currency Cap (M) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E
Six Flags Entertainment Corp USD 3,852 1,213 1,285 1,381 38.8 39.7 39.9 22.9 23.0 23.0 28.9 25.8 25.2
Haichang Holdings Ltd CNY 5,720 1,876 2,129 2,342 42.6 42.8 42.8 6.1 6.2 6.2 24.2 20.1 18.0
Walt Disney Co USD 152,902 51,765 55,885 59,532 29.1 29.9 30.3 17.7 21.9 16.9 19.3 16.7 14.3
Average 36.8 37.5 37.6 15.5 17.1 15.4 24.2 20.9 19.2
Wonderla 1,818 2,126 3,241 48.5 50.5 47.5 20.4 16.7 20.2 34.4 27.9 20.0
Source: Company, MOSL
7. 30 January 2015 7
Wonderla Holidays
Story in charts
Indian amusement park industry still at nascent stage
Exhibit 15: Total footfalls of India’s amusement parks is less than individual global amusement parks
Source: Company, MOSL
Wonderla has a first-mover advantage with rich operating experience
Exhibit 16: Kochi park footfall trend
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 17: Bangalore park footfall trends
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 18: Average ticket realization in Kochi park
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 19: Average ticket realization in Bangalore park
Source: Company, MOSL
18.6
17.2 16.2
14.1
11.2
6.0
Magic Kingdom, US Tokyo Disneyland Disneyland
California, US
Tokyo DisneySea Walt DisneyWorld
Resort, US
Total India
Visitors in2013 (inm)
0.82 0.90 0.89 1.11 1.18 1.21 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.23
10%
-1%
24%
6%
3%
-9%
3% 4% 4%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Kochi Park Footfalls (m) YoY growth
0.62 0.63 0.72
0.92
1.08 1.13 1.19 1.27 1.35 1.43
2%
14%
28% 18%
5% 5%
7%
6% 6%
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Bangalore ParkFootfalls (m) YoY growth
298 327
336
383 423 477 522 574 633
10%
3%
14%
10%
13%
9% 10% 10%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Average Ticket RealisationKochi (INR)
YoY Growth
437 423 440 489
545 598 655 720 793-3%
4%
11% 11%
10% 10% 10% 10%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Average Ticket RealisationBangalore (INR)
YoY Growth
8. 30 January 2015 8
Wonderla Holidays
Corporate profile: Wonderla Holidays
Exhibit 21: Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14
Promoter 71.0 71.0 71.0
DII 2.1 4.1 8.3
FII 7.9 6.9 2.1
Others 19.1 18.0 18.6
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 22: Top holders
Holder Name % Holding
Il and Fs Trust Company Limited 2.3
Handelsbankers Tillvaxtmarknasdsfond 1.8
Aditya Birla Private Equity Trust 1.5
Exhibit 23: Top management
Name Designation
George Joseph Chairman
Arun Kochouseph Chittilappilly Managing Director
Exhibit 24: Directors
Name Name
George Joseph Ramachandran Panjan Moothedath
Arun Kochouseph Chittilappilly Priya Sarah Cheeran Joseph
Kochouseph Chittilappilly
*Independent
Exhibit 25: Auditors
Name Type
BSR & Co LLP Statutory
Exhibit 26: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS (INR)
MOSL
forecast
Consensus
forecast
Variation (%)
FY15 9.1 - -
FY16 11.2 - -
FY17 15.7 - -
Company description
Wonderla Holidays (WONH) is one of the largest
operators of amusement parks in India, which
owns and operates two parks under the brand
name “Wonderla”, situated at Kochi and Bangalore.
In FY14, it had a cumulative annual footfall of 2.3m.
WONH raised INR1.8b through an IPO to set up its
third park in Hyderabad, which is awaiting the final
stages of approval. Company has also developed
the Wonderla Resort in Bangalore, a Three Star
leisure resort, next to its amusement park,
comprising of 84 luxury rooms
Exhibit 18: Sensex rebased
12. 30 January 2015 12
Wonderla HolidaysDisclosures
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Disclosure of Interest Statement WONDERLA HOLIDAYS LTD
§ Analyst ownership of the stock No
§ Served as an officer, director or employee No
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