2013.11.18 konferencja japonia bez atomu eng summary


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2013.11.18 Konferencja Japonia bez atomu - eng summary

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2013.11.18 konferencja japonia bez atomu eng summary

  1. 1. (Summary) The Present Situation in Japan after Fukushima Nuclear Catastrophe Yasuhiro Igarashi igar.w.waw@gmail.com * NPP = Nuclear Power Plant, EJ = elektrownia jądrowa (in Polish) * TEPCO = Tokyo Electric Power Company --- Slide 2 In the end of the film the lady told about Hanamiyama. During Spring it looks like that with Japanese cherry and peach bloom. But unfortunatelly this mountain has been contaminated. --- 3 Review basic information: The blue points symbolize NPP. The 4 reactors in Fukushima are to be decommissioned so right now Japan has 50 reactors. Even so there is no nuclear reactor now working. Japan copes without NPP. --- 4 It is nothing strange because it has been known that Japan had the suitable number of water, gas and coal power plants for her needs. This slide presents potential (yellow colour) and actual use (blue colour) of water, gas, coal and nuclear power plants. As you can see the rest of the power plants can produce enough power to completely replace NPP. Why then Japan doesn't make use of it? It is very simple: 1. The Electricity Business Act guarantees huge benefits to power companies who posses NPP. 2. It is well known that Japan has been trying to obtain nuclear weapon. Nuclear weapon is of Plutonium. And Plutonium is from spent nuclear fuel. --- 5 The basic fact: The inhabitants of Fukushima have never used the electricity from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. They have never used even 1W. This is the map of TEPCO power plants. This company provides energy for the Kanto region. Fukushima is located 250 km away from Tokyo. You can see here also water, gas, coal and nuclear power plants around Tokyo. As you can see contrary to the other power plants, NPP are located in a big distance from Tokyo. There was a recommendation in 1964 that "it is better to build NPP in a region with small number of people because in case of an accident a recompensation would be lower". That means "the benefits from using energy for big cities and danger for the countryside". The Mayor of the village Futaba – Katsutaka Idogawa said: "We were proud that the energy produced here sent to Tokyo and so we support thier lives. We belived in the government and TEPCO". But people in Tokyo were not aware that the energy came from Fukushima. The inhabitants of Fukushima only suffered because of the NPP. A lot of them were forced to evacuate.
  2. 2. --- 6 State and range of contamination in Fukushima and Warsaw. Area 20 km in radius (off limits) + defined in red (suggestion to evacuate) The regulation changed recently: one can enter this region, but can’t spend over 24 hours. --- 7 The Report on thyroid cancer in Fukushima (12.11.2013) Thyroid cancer examination is still going on in Fukushima. Finished on 216,809 children (total around 360,000) 1 : 1,000,000 = rate of crisis in normal condition 26 children confirmed to have thyroid cancer, and 32 suspected. 1 : 8,400 = prevalence rate at present ( 26 / 216,809 ), or 1:3,800 ( (26+32) / 216,809 ) 1 : 4,500 = Chernobyl case published by Dr. Shun-ichi Yamashita (1995) It may be too early to relate this prevalence rate and explosion in Fukushima. It’s necessary to keep epidemiological survey. --- 8 At the Festival of Science in Warsaw, Prof. Ludwig Dobrzyński from the National Center for Nuclear Research gave a lecture about catastrophe in nuclear industry for the public on 28.09.2013. He talked about Fukushima but didn’t mentioned this thyroid cancer examination. I asked him after his lecture, and the answer was: “I knew it from my colleagues, but I didn’t hear about it from the Japanese delegation (that’s why I didn’t mention it)” --- 9 Japanese delegation never tell negative information about Fukushima, because Japan is now promoting its NPP abroad. Polish experts never tell such information (even they know), because Poland is now going to build a NPP. As a result Polish public is isolated from trustworthy information. “We don’t know what we don’t know (and experts keep silent)” is the symbolic phrase on this issue. --- 10 Another example of Polish nuclear expert. The President of the National Atomic Energy Agency, Janusz Włodarski, spoke in the interview for a mook published in Japan: “Nuclear energy is clean energy and environment friendly. Even if accidents were to happen such as like in Fukushima, Poland wants to implement nuclear power”. He must be neutral on NPP project for his position, but in fact his priority is implementation NPP rather than nuclear safety. One can verify his talk with registered translators in the link. --- 11, 12 Back to Fukushima: contaminated water leak to the Pacific Ocean is a serious problem. --- 13 One result of computer simulation: how much the Pacific Ocean would be contaminated. We’ll not be sure whether the Sushi in front of our eyes is risky or not. Such a day is coming.
  3. 3. --- 14 The myth of nuclear industry: “Nuclear is cheap” is already demolished in Japan. The upper: from typical promotion material stating that NPP is cheapest as for costs. It’s just a forecast calculation without governmental subsidies: ( (costs of electricity company) / (produced electricity) ) The lower: Real costs calculated from securities report: ( (costs of electricity company + governmental budget) / (produced electricity) ) then nuclear is more expensive than water and fossil fuel power plant. By Prof. Ken-ichi Ohshima (2010, before the Fukushima accident) --- 15 The argument by Prof. Ken-ichi Ohshima is important. It should be introduced to Polish experts. Even in his calculation, the costs of spent fuel management is estimated lower than it could be. NPP can be safe without accident, theoretically, but still the problem with spent fuel is left. It’s better for Polish statesmen to pay attention and to know the reality in other countries on this issue seriously. --- 16 The symbolic phrase “We don’t know what we don’t know” is easily justified in nuclear industry, with reasons 1. “it’s privacy of private company”, then 2. “it relates to nuclear security”. Every corruption, every technical error has been covered with these reasons. Do we need such a society? Example: An Upper House member showed a document smeared on almost all pages. He demanded from the Ministry of Economy to show documents about nuclear export from Japan to Vietnam. A person with legal right as an upperhouse member only receives such documents. -- 17 Anti-nuclear movement is not only leftist’s issue. Now in Japan, Right-wing and patriots say “Nuclear power is harmful to our beautiful homeland” Buddhists say “Nuclear power isn’t harmonious to human being”, etc. The important thing is to widen supporters whatever their policy is, and to share the common interest. Recent opinion poll (March 2013): Q2, What is your opinion on NPP? 1.8 % : build more NPP, 25.2 % : keep the present state 40.5 % : Fade out from NPP, 27.6 % : Stop immediately NPP policy Q8, Which electricity source should we increase? 11.8 % : LNG, 6.3 % : Water, 6.3 % : NPP, 67.0 % : Renewable --- 18 There is a group of parliamentary members “Zero NPP Alliance” 37 from Lower House (7.7%), 22 Upper House (9%), 4 members from Liberal-Democratic Party, the governing party now. Ex-Prime ministers are now negotiating to form “Ex-PM anti-nuclear alliance”: Koizumi (Liberal-Democratic Party), and Hosokawa, Hatoyama, Kan (Democratic Party).
  4. 4. --- 19 If I’m allowed to comment on the Polish program. I would ask a fundamental question: Pro-nuke lobby is saying it’s necessary for Polish energy independence. But in reality, the nuclear fuel will be imported, the reactor will be imported, and there is no plan for spent fuel (probably it’ll be covered with foreign technology). So how one can say it’s independent? It looks rather a traitorous argument. --- 20 Summary Japan can function without NPP. Benefits from NPP are just for the industry, a very small part of society. NPP is based on social discrimination Dilemma: Who is a neutral expert? Nuclear expert in his youth joined the industry with hope. Such a person doesn’t pay attention to negative aspects, that’s why the sentence “We don’t know what we don’t know” is realized. Poland has a great chance to be a leader of renewable energy, without contamination by its own nuclear industry. All countries have the same problem: spent fuel. Why Poland is going to have it now? Giving up nuclear policy does not mean “following Germany”, it means a great advance: “Poland learns from other's mistakes”. It’s positively stepping forward ahead of others.