The Big Digital Change Issues in US Publishing in 2012

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Mike Shatzkin explores what he thinks will be the main topics that publishers will have to face in 2012.

Mike Shatzkin explores what he thinks will be the main topics that publishers will have to face in 2012.

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  • 1. THE BIG DIGITAL CHANGE ISSUES IN US PUBLISHING FOR 2012 Mike Shatzkin IfBookThen, Milan February 2012TheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 2. AMAZONS SHARE OF PUBLISHERS REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL)•  Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p)•  Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants)•  Proven impact of Amazons onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal)•  Publishers challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they canTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 3. AMAZONS POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS •  They know reading patterns •  Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion •  Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) •  Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers payTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 4. SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) •  Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) •  New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) •  Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance •  New devices that enable other activities could mean less readingTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 5. VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING•  Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99•  Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) –  Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 –  Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points –  Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books•  Reduction in pricing influence of printTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 6. WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) •  All consistent success is immersive reading •  Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) •  App market pricing discouraging •  Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specificationsTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 7. WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? •  Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! •  Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere •  US publishers looking for ways to expand •  Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authorsTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 8. WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? •  Scale would seem to require it •  The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content •  B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content •  B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to KindleTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 9. CONTACT Mike Shatzkin The Idea Logical Company info@idealog.com @MikeShatzkinTheIdea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.