2011 International Book Market Overview

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Jonathan Nowell shows 2011 in numbers: how has been last year in market for books?

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2011 International Book Market Overview

  1. 1. 2011 International Book MarketOverviewJonathan Nowell – President, Nielsen Book Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  2. 2. What we do … 2 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  3. 3. Agenda•  Global consumer confidence•  International book markets•  Market summaries: –  US –  UK –  Ireland –  Australia –  New Zealand –  South Africa –  Italy –  Spain –  India –  China?•  The impact of e-books•  Key findings•  The link between metadata and sales 3 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  4. 4. Global consumer confidence Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  5. 5. 5Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  6. 6. India, Brazil and China are in the Top 10Consumer Confidence Index Countries 6 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  7. 7. Global consumer confidence in our territories Q2 ‘11 v Q1 ‘11Q3,  2011  Nielsen  Consumer  Confidence  Index   Consumer  Confidence  has  fallen  in  29  out  of  56  markets   Increase Decrease No Change 140 New markets 121 120 Global average 88 104 98 97 100 78 77 80 73 64 56 60 52 40 20 0 Base : All respondents n=31,031 Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey 7 Q3 2011 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  8. 8. International book markets Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  9. 9. Print book sales decline across allmarkets 9 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  10. 10. Broad sector declines across markets 10 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  11. 11. Broad sector market share 11 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  12. 12. Market Summaries Title of Presentation Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  13. 13. Italy Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  14. 14. Italy annual sales trends +3.7% -1.7% 14 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  15. 15. Italy annual sales trends – broad sectors 15 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  16. 16. 2011 top Italy titlesTitle Author VolumeLe Primo Luci del Mattino Fabio Volo 272,935Il Profumo delle Foglio di Clara Sanchez 201,386LimoneIl Linguaggio Secreto dei Vanessa Diffenbaugh 186,995FioriNessuno si Salva da Solo Margaret Mazzantini 177,786Il Gioco Degli Specchi Andrea Camilleri 173,844Vieni Via Con Me Roberto Saviano 148,988Un Regalo da Tiffany Melissa Hill 140,579Steve Jobs Walter Isaacson 129,895Il Piccolo Principe Antoine de Saint-Exupery 118,239Tre Atti e Due Tempi Giorgio Faletti 116,021 16 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  17. 17. US Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  18. 18. US annual sales trends -4.5% -9.2% 18 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  19. 19. US annual sales trends – broad sectors 19 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  20. 20. 2011 top US titlesTitle Author VolumeHeaven is for Real Todd Burpo 1,993,654The Help Kathryn Stockett 1,831,972The Hunger Games Suzanne Collins 1,577,952Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Jeff Kinney 1,563,302Cabin FeverSteve Jobs Walter Isaacson 1,385,441The Help Kathryn Stockett 1,011,136Catching Fire Suzanne Collins 985,174Unbroken Laura Hillenbrand 912,871Inheritance Christopher Paolini 900,145Mockingjay Suzanne Collins 853,314 20 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  21. 21. UK Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  22. 22. UK annual sales trends -4.3% -7.2% 22 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  23. 23. UK annual sales trends – broad sectors 23 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  24. 24. 2011 top UK titlesTitle Author VolumeOne Day David Nicholls 637,969Jamie’s 30-minute Meals Jamie Oliver 504,557Guinness World Records 491,1912012A Tiny Bit Marvellous Dawn French 459,183Room Emma Donoghue 418,002Jamie’s Great Britain Jamie Oliver 401,950One Day David Nicholls 338,793The Confession John Grisham 326,393The Help Kathryn Stockett 325,020Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Jeff Kinney 291,015Cabin Fever 24 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  25. 25. Ireland Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  26. 26. Ireland annual sales trends -7.8% -8.6% 26 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  27. 27. Ireland annual sales trends – broadsectors 27 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  28. 28. Australia Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  29. 29. Australia annual sales trends +0.5% -7.2% 29 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  30. 30. Australia annual sales trends – broadsectors 30 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  31. 31. New Zealand Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  32. 32. NZ annual sales trends +1.2% -14.8% 32 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  33. 33. NZ annual sales trends – broad sectors 33 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  34. 34. South Africa Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  35. 35. ZA annual sales trends -6.1% 35 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  36. 36. ZA annual sales trends – broad sectors 36 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  37. 37. Spain Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  38. 38. Spain annual sales trends -7.2% -3.9% 38 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  39. 39. Spain annual sales trends – broadsectors 39 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  40. 40. India Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  41. 41. BookScan India – the first year ofour panel•  2011 was the first full year in which we measured Indian book sales. In total we measured:•  Volume sales of 12.6m units•  Value sales of INR 3,281m•  Sales for over 386k unique ISBNs 41 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  42. 42. Make up of the Indian market by broadgenre 42 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  43. 43. Quarterly sales in India 43 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  44. 44. Like-for-like quarterly growth Q2 vs Q1 Q3 vs Q2 Q4 vs Q3Total 13% 16% 14%Fiction 18% 28% 43%Non-Fiction 9% 25% 5%Children’s 13% 2% 7% 44 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  45. 45. China Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  46. 46. China value sales grow by 6% from 2008 to2010 through the OpenBook panel China value sales in billions RMB Estimated figures from OpenBook34   showed the China market up 31.9 6.3% year on year to October32   31.3 2011 30.130   This represented 29.3bn Yuan in28   2008 sales 200926   2010 These figures do not include24   online book sales, which OpenBook estimated to be:22   5bn Yuan in 201020   10bn Yuan in 2011 Value  52  weeks Source: Openbook 46 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  47. 47. Non-Fiction is becoming less dominant asChildren’s and Fiction take a larger valueshare of the Chinese market Source: OpenBook 47 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  48. 48. The impact of e-books Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  49. 49. Tablets and E readers at a very early stage Germany. U.K. 5% 6% 2% 8% Spain 7% 7% Italy 8% U.S. 2% 8% 11% Tablet eReader Base: General Population Aged 16-64 Years (All Markets Except USA) Source: Smartphone Insights Q3 2011 / Mobile Insights Q3 2011 (USA) 49 Mobile Users Aged 13+ Years (USA) Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  50. 50. USAIndividual Penetration of Connected Devices Trended Individual Penetration of Connected Devices Among Mobile Phone Owners Source: Nielsen Mobile Insights Q1 2010 (n=70,500), Q2 2010 (n=71,210), Q3 2010 (n=69,238), Q4 2010 (n=72,381), Q1 2011 (n=73,452) , Q2 2011 (n=67,863), Q3 2011 (n=7,5187) 50 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  51. 51. UKIndividual Penetration of Connected Devices Individual Penetration of Connected Devices General Population (n=1,043) 38% 23% 12% 8% 6% Tablets eReaders Portable media Smartphones Netbooks players***Source: Nielsen’s Q3 2011 UK Smartphone Insights study 51 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  52. 52. As e-book reader penetration grows, the decline inphysical fiction sales is likely to continue to accelerate -7.2% -18.0% -0.9% -11.7% 52 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  53. 53. The growing UK fiction decline in 2011 53 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  54. 54. The growing UK fiction decline in 2011 54 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  55. 55. US Ebook sales from the AAPIn 2010 2011•  14 publishers reported sales to •  Reporting publisher between 15 the AAP and 18 depending in the month•  Total ebook sales estimated at •  To the end of September ebook $441.3m in 2010 sales totalled $727.7m•  Sales increased by 164.4% on •  Sales $286.4m ahead of the 2009 total 2010 figure•  For the reporting companies •  Sales increased by 137.9% on eBooks sales compensated for ytd sales in 2010 the drop in print revenue •  But and “anecdotally” … sales increasing overall sales by 0.2% growth slowed towards the end of 2011 55 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  56. 56. The first accurately measured combined eBookand print charts appearing in the WSJ Source: Nielsen BookScan 56 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  57. 57. The first accurately measured combined eBookand print charts appearing in the WSJ Source: Nielsen BookScan 57 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  58. 58. Key findings Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  59. 59. Key Findings•  Major book markets are experiencing decline in book sales as the global economy and consumer confidence remain fragile•  The impact of e-book sales is now having a clear effect on physical book sales in the US and UK, with this effect likely to increase in these markets and begin to be felt in other territories•  The rapid growth of eBook sales seems, “anecdotally”, to be slowing in the US•  India is seeing strong growth in book sales, showing that developing economies can hold great opportunities for publishers and booksellers 59 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  60. 60. The link between metadata and sales Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  61. 61. What we do … 61 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  62. 62. Key findings•  Titles that meet the BIC Basic standard see average sales 98% higher than those that don’t meet the standard•  Ensuring that all four key enhanced metadata elements (long description, short description, author biography and review) are present on product records can help average sales rise by 55% in comparison to records where none of the elements are present•  New subscribers to the enhanced service can see annual volume sales increase by up to 28% 62 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Title of Presentation
  63. 63. The online world•  Split into offline and online sales: –  offline sales see an increase of 35% for titles which have all enhanced metadata elements present –  online sales see a massive 178% increase for titles which have all metadata elements present in comparison to those with no enhanced metadata 35% 178% 63 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Title of Presentation
  64. 64. The Link between Metadata and Sales published Wednesday, 25th January, 2012Free PDF download from www.nielsenbookscan.co.ukjonathan.nowell@nielsen.com 64 Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

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