Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns


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Keynote at the MP Workshop Bristol 5sep11

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Progress: Despite the Law of Diminishing Returns

  1. 1. Abstract ... Why does it take millions of transistors to realise the broadcast radio receiver done in five in the 70s? Why are there millions of lines of software in products that are not programmable? And why do we throw things away before they break? The last 40 years saw the exponential growth of silicon capacity and the technology lead markets that ensued. Complexity was never an obstacle whilst design cost was 2nd order, but now that limits are upon us it is also apparent that p p buy , p pp people y products not technology ... so we strive to deliver elevated expectation despite Diminishing Returns. My intent is to give context to subsequent Multicore discussions in and beyond this event. I will do this by looking at Efficiency in a context of increasingly Diminishing Returns This will lead quite naturally to Multicore (CMP); its rationale Returns. and its role. But will also raise questions about the way(s) forward ... as technology moves out of the market driving seat. 1
  2. 2. 1v0Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r, Progress: ARM Visiting Prof. at ... Despite the Law of p Diminishing Returns ORContribution to Industry Award 2008 Whatever happened to the 6 transistor radio? Multi-Processor Workshop 5sep11 2
  3. 3. Things Haven’t Always Been Like This ...!3
  4. 4. A Moment of Retrospection  I learned all I know in the past! ... I just have more of it than most people!  I’ll take you back 36yrs to 1975 ...  New: Degree, Home, Job, Wife, Baby, Car, Phone ... Mk1: H man bab Mk1 Human baby C1975 Mark’N’: Mud-Hut M k’N’ M d H t C1975 Aka Dylan-Paul Phillips Aka: 5 Manor Close.Mk1: Ian Phillips C1975 ... M More-or-less th same t d ! l the today! 4
  5. 5. 1975: Technology Products Vauxhall Viva HB SL90 GPO Type 706 Telephone... Recognisably the same, but very different today. 5
  6. 6. 1975: Semiconductor Electronics Domestically we had...  Portable Radio  Pocket Calculator  Hi-Fi (Partial)  Colour TV (Partial) ... That’s about all! Professionally we had... TI SR 51 Calculator c1975 1975 BeoVision 3500 c1975  Computers & First PCs  Radio Receivers  Satellites  Under-Sea Cables  Transmitters (Partial)  TV C Cameras (P ti l) (Partial)  Telephony (Partial) Stuart 5 Transistor Radio 1975 IBM 220PX c1975 6
  7. 7. 2010: Electronics Everywhere but Nowhere 7
  8. 8. Confusing Technology with P Products ...8
  9. 9. The Computer ... Or Is It? 9
  10. 10. Computer: A Machine for Computing ...Computing ... ... A general term for algebraic (mathematical) manipulation of data ... Numerated Processed Data/ Phenomena y=F(x,t,s) F( t ) Information OUT (y) IN (x) ... State and Time are factors in this.  It can include phenomena ranging from human thinking to calculations with a narrower meaning. Wikipedia  Usually used it to exercise analogies (models) of real-world situations; Frequently in real-time. q y ... No mention of Implementation Technology in this! 10
  11. 11. Planet Motion Computer – Orrery c1700 Mechanical Technology• Inventor: George Graham (1674-1751)• Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!) 11
  12. 12. Babbages Difference Engine 1837 Mechanical(Re)construction Technology c 000 c2000  Th diff The difference engine consists of a number of columns, numbered f i i t f b f l b d from 1 t N E h column is able to store one decimal number. The only operation to N. Each l i bl t t d i l b Th l ti the engine can do is add the value of a column n + 1 to column n to produce the new value of n. Column N can only store a constant, column 1 displays (and possibly prints) the value of the calculation on the current iteration. Computer for Calculating Tables: A Basic ALU Engine 12
  13. 13. Enigma ~1940 Mechanical Technology Data Encryption/Decryption Computer13
  14. 14. Colossus Computer 1944 Valve/Mechanical Technology Code-Breaking Code Breaking Computer: A Data Processor14
  15. 15. Digital Computer – Baby 1947 (Reconstruction) Valve/Software Technology General Purpose, Quantised Time and Data, (Digital) Electronic Computing15
  16. 16. Analogue Computer – AKAT c1960 Transistor TechnologyGeneral Purpose, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing16
  17. 17. Evolution of Radio Tele Verta Tele-Verta Radio 4 Valves 1 Rectifier Valve BTH c1945Crystal Set 1 Diode Evoke DAB Radio c1925 100 M Transistors 2-3 Embedded Processors Bush Radio c2005 7 Transistors 1 Diode c1960 Ian’s ‘Span’17
  18. 18. Radio as Computation ... Integrated Circuit Transistor Valve Technology Vi Vrf=Vi*100 Vrf Vro=Bandpass(Vif*1000) Vif Vro Vif=Vrf*Vlo Vlo Vlo=Cos(t*1^6) Single-Task, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing18
  19. 19. Products Make Business 21c Businesses have to be  Operations and Competition is Global and so are Investors  Nationality has little meaning Business needs  End-Customers buy Products, not Technology  Technologies enable Product Options  Business-Models make Money New Products are  Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised  New Technology increases Cost/Risk ... ... But does not always increase Value  HW, SW, Mechanics, Optics, etc are (just) means to an end!... New Technology ≠ Market Success (Any More) 19
  20. 20. High Performance Computing (HPC) The exponential progression of Moores Law has enabled the fantastic computation power we now take for granted ...  AF T Few Tens of h dli f headline-grabbing bbi  A Few Hundred Million visible ... BUT...  Tens of Billions of invisible ubiquitous... Gives impression that General Purpose Digital Computation is what it is all about. 20
  21. 21. Products are Solutions; Products Not The Other-Way Other- Round ...21
  22. 22. Embedded Computing Is ... Entertainment Remote Control Security Televisions ID C d Cards Memory Logistics Transport Banking g Manufacturing Energy Communications Medical ... etc, etc, etc. t t t 22
  23. 23. High Performance (Embedded) Computing Obvious: Less-Obvious:  Business Model  Infrastructure ...  Manufacture and Distribution  Aesthetics A th ti  Road network, Fuel supply, Tyres  Performance  Service network & Training  Brand & Image  Sales and Marketing, etc  Finance schemes Fi h  Technologies  Dealership  Internal Combustion Engine ...  Warranty, etc  Bearings, Casting, Metal forming, Paint, Aerodynamics Glass Rubber, Paint Aerodynamics, Glass, Rubber Suspension ...  Manufacturing, Reliability, Quality ...  Electronic Systems23
  24. 24. The Evolution of Customer(kind) Universe – 13.6Byr Earth – 4.5Byr (Us!) – appeared 35,000 yr ago  ‘Developed’ from Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) 100,000 yr ago  Primary Objective: Survive Nature (1,000 generations) - appeared ~2,000 yr ago  Pythagoras Socrates Plato Aristotle Archimedes ... Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, Pythagoras  Objective: Understand Nature (100 gen.) - appeared ~1,000 yrs ago  Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad)  Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad) Galileo  Objective: Manipulate Nature (50 gen.) - just 260 yrs ago  Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n)  Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation  Objective: Exploit Nature (10 gen.) Brunell... Remember: Real (Cro-Magnon) Customers Dont Buy Technology! 24
  25. 25. The iConic Must-Have Product ...25
  26. 26. ... Cool Design(California) & Manufacture(China) ! 26
  27. 27. ... Most Design Never Noticed or Valued27
  28. 28. The Threshold of Magic 1: Clarke: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Everybody has a threshold, beyond which Functionality is Indistinguishable From Magic1!  Chemical Systems Ch i l S t  Biological Systems  Economic Systems y  Electronic Systems The Incandescent Light: is the for most non-scientific, but well educated people!... Its not a crime, to Not Understand Technology!... The crime is not realising people don’t when you are the one who suffers as a result! 28
  29. 29. All Technologies Are Important ... p29
  30. 30. Exciting Technology ... At the ModuleInside the Case iPhone 4s vibrator motor. rear-facing 5 MP camera with 720p video at 30 FPS, tap to focus feature, and LED flash. , 30 Source ...
  31. 31. Exciting Technology ... At the ModuleInside the Case The Control Board. 31 Source ...
  32. 32. Exciting Technology ... Inside the ModuleInside The Control Board (a-side) Visible Design-Team Members...  A4 PProcessor, specified b A l d i ifi d by Apple, designed and manufactured b S d d f t d by Samsung ...  The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power.  Inc. ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (also other ARM CPUs and IP?)  ST-Micro (3 axis gyroscope) - (ARM Partner)  Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner)  Skyworks (GSM)  Triquint (GSM PA)  Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner) GPS Bluetooth, EDR &FM 32 Source ...
  33. 33. Exciting Technology ... Inside the ModuleInside The Control Board (b-side) Visible Design-Team Members ...  Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner)  Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner) g ( ) ( )  AKM (Magnetic Sensor)  Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner) Invisible Design-Team Members ... g  OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ...  Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ... 33 Source ...
  34. 34. Exciting Technology ... Inside ‘The Chip’ Memory ‘Package’ 2 Memory DiesGlue Processor SOC Di P Die 4-Layer Platform Package Package’The A4 SIP Package (Cross section) (Cross-section)  The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls.  Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.  Putting the RAM close to the p g processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts p y, g power.  Unknown Mfr (Memory)  Samsung/ARM (Processor)  Unknown (SIP Technology) 34 Source ...
  35. 35. The Phone: Hetrogeneous Computation ... • About 20 Chips in a Smart- Phone • Processing: • Audio, Video, RF, Touch, Temperature, Orientation, G-Force, Orientation G Force Magnetism, Power • Core Functions: • GSM GPS WiFi GSM, GPS, WiFi, 3/4G Net, BlueTooth • Application Functions: • Applets Games Mail, Applets, Games, Mail Diary, Address-book, etc. ... Multi Processing before we Multi-Processing open the ‘App’n Processor’! ... Partitioning: The difference between a good and bad Product!35
  36. 36. Commodity HMP In Qual. Today...Pocket ‘Super-Computer’ ... 10 Programmable Processors  4 x A9 Processors (2x2): ~10,000 MIP P (2 2) 10 000 Block-Diagram for a typical 40nm Mobile  4 x MALI 400 Fragment Proc: ~1Gp/s Computing & Smart-Phone Platform Chip  1 x MALI 400 Vertex Processor  1 x MALI Video CoDec Plus Dedicated Processors  Smart MMUs  Smart Interrupt Controllers  Smart DMA Engines  Smart QoS and Power Mgt  Smart Cache & Memory RepairPlus ...  Customer Additions/Peripherals!... ~15 Proc ~2GHz 1-2W Proc., ~2GHz, ... Strong Application Focus36
  37. 37. 30nm Target Architectures About 50MTr About 50KTr... D li i ~5x speed (A hit t Delivering 5 d (Architecture + P Process + Cl k) Clock)37
  38. 38. There’s D Th ’ Design; and there’s Technical Design ...38
  39. 39. Design A Part-Formalised Process ... Partition and Refine until every Thread has identified an Established (Reuse) path to Physical Implementation Then C Th Construct and V if ... t t d Verify Concept Phone Actual Phone Known-Links from K Li k f AAA cell TFT-LCD Model-to-Reality (Reuse)  High Electronics GaAs Front End H Std Radio Chip Low  Hierarchy of Reuse Baseband Signal Processing ARM CPU MALI MPU H HW Support FP Engine Gates/MC.Code39
  40. 40. Functional F2 F1 F5 Analysis A l i F4 F3 (F2) ( ) (F5) Thread (F1) (F3) HW1 HW2 HW3 HW4 RTOS/Drivers Hardware I t f H d Interface Bus(es) Processor(s) Execution Pl tf E ti Platform40
  41. 41. The Real-Time Execution of Models It is about creating a Functional-Model and an Execution-Platform for it, to meet Functional and Non-Functional needs.  D i A hi Design: hierarchical mathematical process of M d l R fi hi l th ti l f Model Refinement and t d Verification; based on (Heuristic) Architectural decisions.  Implementation: Process of ‘bringing up’ and Validating the Functional- Model on the Physical Execution-Platform. A good Solution is one that ... 1. Meets a valued human need 2. Is Manufacturable to support a Competitive Price/Biz Model 3. Works at least as well as your Competitors 4. Scores well on Aesthetic (Non-Functional) criteria A bad Solution is one where the Technology Shows! 41
  42. 42. And so to Multi-P Multi-Processors ...42
  43. 43. The Argument for (C)MP Potentially Much Better Power Efficiency than Large/Fast Uni-Processor  Power is a Major Problem ... On Die and In System.  But 10x-100x improvement required! Potential to deliver Higher Performance than Uni-Processor  Can Amdahl’s Law be broken? Amdahl s  For GP applications difficult to see improvement after 3/4 processors Potential to handle Redundancy Schemes  Many Processor ‘Tiles’ with NoC Connectivity  Potentially a small % malfunction can be ‘re-routed’ Potential to offer a Scalable Standard Implementation Scalable,  Reduces Chip Design/Masks/Qual’n/Production Cost by ~90%  Needs a new (tbd!) GP Software Methodology  Must work with Legacy (90% of designs are inherited). ... Can CMP actually deliver any (let alone all) of this? 43
  44. 44. Amdahl’s Law is Alive and Well 32 100% parallel 28 Speedup on parallel processors is limited by the sequential portion of the program 24 peedup 20 Sequential portion need not be large to significantly constrain speedup! Maximum sp 16 12 95% parallel M 8 90% parallel 4 75% parallel 50% parallel 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 Number of cores44
  45. 45. Many (C)MP Technologies ... even in the UK Transputer (Inmos 1978)  Highly Parallel Apps (Graphics)  Lots of history; no success ... y Pixelfusion –  1,536 processors/chip Clearspeed – p  192 full 64 bit arch/chip Picochip –  Aimed at 3G Pico-Cells Spinnaker –  18 processors (Scal. to 1^6)  18,000 neurons (Scal. To 10^9) XMOS –  New version of Transputer Occam  HandleC – HW synthesys (See also SystemC)  OpenCL – Smartphones / Tablets (GPGPU)... Success(?) requires a End-Product and Market of appropriate Scale. 45
  46. 46. OpenCL Enables Heterogeneity Plug-in architecture  Mali-T604 Vithar GPU  ARM/NEON  Custom Device  Video Decoder Discovery of computational units Scheduling of work... It does not automatically solve “which computation where”46
  47. 47. Architecture: A Viable Mix of Technology YES: Power is a Major Concern ...  Power-Efficiency the way of recovering it.  Away from.. ..towards.. ..wherever possible. But so is Productivity, NRE Cost, TTM, Quality ...  Reuse: As much as possible: Mech, Elect, SW, Acoustic, RF, Stacks, OS, Displays, Keyboards, etc.  Teams: Use people who know how to do the work (duh!)  Use External Expertise: It is seldom a differentiating factor in your Product.  Producible: Make something that can be economically made (duh!)  Performance: Competitive; don’t push the bounds of possibility. don t  New Technology: As little as possible. And so are Aesthetics ...  Colour, Style, Package, Availability, Quality, Business Model, etc ...... Remember: The Product is the way to deliver a Compelling End-Customer Experience. 47
  48. 48. Conclusions Multi-Processing makes sense in lots of Products today...  It will seldom be entire solutions (ie: Small markets)  It will seldom be homogeneous  If the Work-Load and Programming Models are good. Physical Concurrency makes sense in lots of Products Products...  Mechanical, CPU/GPU, Optical, RF, MEM, SAW, etc  Simplifies Productivity, Design, Qualification, Quality and Reuse Few Products (None) have the luxury of a Clean-Sheet Design...  Legacy is unavoidable CPU is not the answer for everything... everything  ‘Software’ is amongst the least energy efficient technology  DSP, Video HW and GPU can be (much) better  But Analogue and Mechanical are best ... Products can be Enabled or Disabled MP Technology 48
  49. 49. The END Th EN ... Th k for L Thanks f Listening49
  50. 50. Reading & References The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Disruptive Tech.)  by Clayton M. Christensen: HBS Press, 1997 Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology (Research in 21C)  by Henry Willi b H William Ch b Chesbrough : HBS Press, 2003 h P The World Is Flat (Globalisation)  by Thomas L. Friedman: Penguin, 2005 Staying Power (Business) y g ( )  by Michael Cusumano: Oxford, 2010 A Short History of Nearly Everything (A different view on what we know)  by Bill Bryson: Black Swan, 2003 y y The Voyages of the Beagle (Scientific Observation)  By Charles Darwin,1860 An Essay on the Principles of Population (Natural Competition)  By Thomas M l h 1789 B Th Malthus,1789 50