Scenarios, Foresight, Knowledge Platforms [email_address]

Scenarios, Foresight, Knowledge Platforms [email_address] Based on two projects, mainly and on three presentations: 1 process and results of genomics exercise 2 some lessons from this (as cnveyed to sponsor) 3 Success scenario approach applied to nanotechnology

Based on two projects, mainly and on three presentations:

1 process and results of genomics exercise

2 some lessons from this (as cnveyed to sponsor)

3 Success scenario approach applied to nanotechnology

Part 1 “Genomics” Workshop and preparatory material commissioned by Research Council to aid selection decisions (funding decisions already taken - but see later) Client wanted “traditional” scenario workshop - focusing on change in S&T impacting on Soc sci - not on alternatives for soc sci as such

Workshop and preparatory material commissioned by Research Council to aid selection decisions (funding decisions already taken - but see later)

Client wanted “traditional” scenario workshop - focusing on change in S&T impacting on Soc sci - not on alternatives for soc sci as such

ESRC Genomics Scenarios - material from evaluation session with sponsor Clem Bezold Institute for Alternative Futures Ian Miles Centre for Research and Innovation

Project Overview Input for Forecasts and Scenarios: Dec. Design Meeting IAF/CRIC Research (-> series of documents) Interviews with 22 Experts (activists, social scientists, scientific researchers, business professionals) Convened January 2002 Workshop. Used three different “lenses” to help clarify the role of Social Science Research for Genomics COUNCIL group collaboration software 24 Participants

Input for Forecasts and Scenarios:

Dec. Design Meeting

IAF/CRIC Research (-> series of documents)

Interviews with 22 Experts (activists, social scientists, scientific researchers, business professionals)

Convened January 2002 Workshop.

Used three different “lenses” to help clarify the role of Social Science Research for Genomics

COUNCIL group collaboration software

24 Participants

Multiple Approaches for Determining Priorities 4 reports prepared - fed into workshop - result was new reports and workshop report plus LEARNING, NETWORKING Key Drivers for Genomics Thematic Priorities Genomics Applications Scenarios Priorities for Social Science

Design workshop -> report -> scenario workshop: Key Drivers of Genomics Functionality of Genomics Regulation of Genomics Business Forces and Beyond Genomics Itself Politics and Geopolitics Demand Social Attitudes Social Mobilization Governance of Knowledge Events Risk Environment

Functionality of Genomics

Regulation of Genomics

Business Forces and Beyond

Genomics Itself

Politics and Geopolitics

Demand

Social Attitudes

Social Mobilization

Governance of Knowledge

Events

Risk

Environment

Thematic Priorities -> Themes for Social Science Specificities of Genomics nature and impact of scientific activity Science and Technology Knowledge relationship between public and private science Regulatory Issues privacy and data protection Social and Health Policy Challenges insurability and health impacts Interfaces Between Disciplines effects on social and economic structures Cultural Implications and Institutional Resources social science in relation to natural sciences

Specificities of Genomics

nature and impact of scientific activity

Science and Technology Knowledge

relationship between public and private science

Regulatory Issues

privacy and data protection

Social and Health Policy Challenges

insurability and health impacts

Interfaces Between Disciplines

effects on social and economic structures

Cultural Implications and Institutional Resources

social science in relation to natural sciences

Using Archetypal IAF Scenarios 4 Scenarios constructed out of variations of the Drivers: Genomics, Inc. Broken Promises Out of Our Control Genomics for All First shot prepared before workshop, break-out groups elaborated

4 Scenarios constructed out of variations of the Drivers:

Genomics, Inc.

Broken Promises

Out of Our Control

Genomics for All

First shot prepared before workshop, break-out groups elaborated

Social Science Research Priorities – How as well as What Priorities related to Research Organizations and Process: Interdisciplinarity – outreach to natural scientists Engaged Research – provide context for innovation International Research – role of developing world Conflict and Inequality – social division and equity Communication of Results – enhance dialogue

Priorities related to Research Organizations and Process:

Interdisciplinarity – outreach to natural scientists

Engaged Research – provide context for innovation

International Research – role of developing world

Conflict and Inequality – social division and equity

Communication of Results – enhance dialogue

What Social Science Research Priorities – Priorities related to Genomics Research Issues for Social Science: Social Perceptions and Ethical Structures Critical Analysis of Key Social Constucts Business and Economics International Politics and Institutions Cultural Reception and Consumption Practices Co-Evolution of Laws and Legal Structures Food and Agricultural Applications Mobilization of Groups Inter-relations Between Technologies Corporations, Innovation, Technology Transfer Genomics Innovation and the State

Priorities related to Genomics Research Issues for Social Science:

Social Perceptions and Ethical Structures

Critical Analysis of Key Social Constucts

Business and Economics

International Politics and Institutions

Cultural Reception and Consumption Practices

Co-Evolution of Laws and Legal Structures

Food and Agricultural Applications

Mobilization of Groups

Inter-relations Between Technologies

Corporations, Innovation, Technology Transfer

Genomics Innovation and the State

Foresight and Social Research Priorities: Lessons from the Genomics Scenarios Exercise

Lessons from the

Genomics Scenarios Exercise

Types of Lesson Results of the Exercise: publications and other outputs, specific recommendations and areas of uncertainty or controversy Lessons concerning prioritisation in genomics-related research - related to the specific exercise, and to Foresight more generally Lessons that might be applied to prioritisation in (social) research more widely

Results of the Exercise: publications and other outputs, specific recommendations and areas of uncertainty or controversy

Lessons concerning prioritisation in genomics-related research - related to the specific exercise, and to Foresight more generally

Lessons that might be applied to prioritisation in (social) research more widely

Some lessons related to the design and implementation Timing problems in terms of fit with ESRC genomics prioritisation and selection processes Evolution of client demands and motivations Scope for closer client involvement in process design (design workshop issues)

Timing problems in terms of fit with ESRC genomics prioritisation and selection processes

Evolution of client demands and motivations

Scope for closer client involvement in process design (design workshop issues)

Some lessons related to the workshop process Problematic involvement of competing would-be centres Too few natural scientists and industry representatives (conflict of dates, etc) Scope for more scripted sessions?

Problematic involvement of competing would-be centres

Too few natural scientists and industry representatives (conflict of dates, etc)

Scope for more scripted sessions?

Some lessons related to the methods Valuable use of technological aids - need for UK capabilities here? Scenario methodology - need for development of social science analysis and exploitation of various methods (what linkage to existing professionals?)

Valuable use of technological aids - need for UK capabilities here?

Scenario methodology - need for development of social science analysis and exploitation of various methods (what linkage to existing professionals?)

Impacts (just some…) Changed structural ideas for funding as well as election inputs generated internal unease about soc sci capabilities, (staff learning) led then to decision to spread funding, to add plans for new interdisciplinary facilities, to support use of scenario methods for communication Internal communication about issue, thus ongoing support

Changed structural ideas for funding as well as election inputs

generated internal unease about soc sci capabilities, (staff learning)

led then to decision to spread funding, to add plans for new interdisciplinary facilities, to support use of scenario methods for communication

Internal communication about issue, thus ongoing support

Part 2 Success Scenarios: The example of a nanotechnology scenario workshop - material used in workshop (excerpts)

The example of a nanotechnology scenario workshop - material used in workshop (excerpts)

Success for the UK in Nanotechnology Applications by 2006 CRIC Success in Nanotechnologies

Why this Workshop? The Wave of Interest in Nanotechnology Where does the UK stand? What should the UK do? What would constitute ‘Success’? What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and Barriers to - Change? How could we get to Success? What would it look like?

The Wave of Interest in Nanotechnology

Where does the UK stand?

What should the UK do?

What would constitute ‘Success’?

What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and Barriers to - Change?

How could we get to Success? What would it look like?

Success Scenarios WHAT? Credible, optimistic Expert consensus if possible Informed by benchmarking and other inputs WHY? “ Stretch target” Shared visions, improved understanding Better indicators of progress Action points

WHAT?

Credible, optimistic

Expert consensus if possible

Informed by benchmarking and other inputs

WHY?

“ Stretch target”

Shared visions, improved understanding

Better indicators of progress

Action points

Previous Workshops INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN THE UK A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005 Commissioned by: Dr. John Taylor, Director-General of the Research Councils Office of Science and Technology Department of Trade and Industry Funded by: The Economic and Social Research Council Conducted by: Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC), University of Manchester and UMIST Contents Executive Summary 1 . I ntroductio n 1.1 What would ‘success’ look like by 2005? 1.2 Developing the Scenario 1.3 The Workshop Participants 2. The 2005 Scenario and its Rationale 2.1 Technological Change by 2005 2.2 Entrepreneurship, New Business Models and Venture Capital 2.3 Content 2.4 Innovative Business Use of ICTs ... 2.5 Skilled Workers and Innovative Consumers 2.6 Importance of the Science Base 2.7 Government Action 2.7.1 Government as an Innovative... and User of ICTs 2.7.2 Government Providing the Framework for Competition 2.7.3 Government Encouraging Entrepreneurship 2.8 Indicators of Success for the UK in ICTs by 2005 3. The Economic Dimensions of the Scenario 3.1 The Distinction between Production and Diffusion 3.2 How the Contribution of ICT Production to the Economy is Measured 3.3 Estimates of the Contribution Made to the Economy by ICT Production 3.3.1 Value Added 3.3.2 Employment 3.3.3 Trade and the Balance of Payments 3.4 How the Contribution of ICT Diffusion to the Economy is Measured 3.5 Estimates of the Contribution Made to the Economy by ICT Diffusion 3.5.1 Improvements to Industry Performance 3.5.2 Lower Prices and Higher Quality Goods and Services for UK Households 4 . Conclusions BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE UK A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005 Commissioned by: Dr. John Taylor, Director-General of the Research Councils Office of Science and Technology Department of Trade and Industry Funded by: The Economic and Social Research Council Conducted by: Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC), University of Manchester and UMIST

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN THE UK

A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005

Commissioned by: Dr. John Taylor, Director-General of the Research Councils

Office of Science and Technology

Department of Trade and Industry

Funded by: The Economic and Social Research Council

Conducted by: Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC),

University of Manchester and UMIST

BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE UK

A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005

Commissioned by: Dr. John Taylor, Director-General of the Research Councils

Office of Science and Technology

Department of Trade and Industry

Funded by: The Economic and Social Research Council

Conducted by: Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC),

University of Manchester and UMIST

6 Application Areas Informatics Drug Delivery Systems Tissue Engineering, medical implants & devices Novel Materials Sensors and actuators Instrumentation, tooling and metrology N

“ Snapshot” Example - Informatics Confidential

The Workshop will: Build on these starting points to develop improved success scenarios to tell us:  What will drive change?  What will success look like?  What will enable us to get there?  How will we know we are on track?  What do we need to do to make it happen?

Build on these starting points to develop improved success scenarios to tell us:

 What will drive change?

 What will success look like?

 What will enable us to get there?

 How will we know we are on track?

 What do we need to do to make it happen?

Success Scenarios Starting from the benchmarking studies and “snapshots” for the 6 application areas: Where does the UK stand? What does a SUCCESS SCENARIO look like? What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and Barriers to - Change? How could we get to Success? What actions are required?

Starting from the benchmarking studies and “snapshots” for the 6 application areas:

Where does the UK stand?

What does a SUCCESS SCENARIO look like?

What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and Barriers to - Change?

How could we get to Success? What actions are required?

Working Sessions Issues to Consider Current State of UK Major Issues Arising for the Near Future Any Surprises? Metrics for Success and Failure 6 WORKING GROUPS, FEEDBACK INTO PLENARIES

Issues to Consider

Current State of UK

Major Issues Arising for the Near Future

Any Surprises?

Metrics for Success and Failure

Drivers of Change Access to technology: New knowledge in the UK and internationally Local and global markets and competition: demand pull from users’ appreciation of opportunities from knowledge Other issues Special features that distinguish your area ? UK’s special advantages or problems compared to competitors?

Access to technology:

New knowledge in the UK and internationally

Local and global markets and competition:

demand pull from users’

appreciation of opportunities from knowledge

Other issues

Special features that distinguish your area ?

UK’s special advantages or problems compared to competitors?

What would constitute ‘Success’? Indicators key products and applications impact of products on end-user performance local and global end-user markets - size and UK share industry structure - large firms, SMEs, spin-outs business model (e.g. high value added) where are the UK companies in the supply chain? effect on GDP/employment? And impact on inward investment? our competitors, and how we compare where is the leading-edge research? where UK stands? other features How much change by 2006?

Indicators

key products and applications

impact of products on end-user performance

local and global end-user markets - size and UK share

industry structure - large firms, SMEs, spin-outs

business model (e.g. high value added)

where are the UK companies in the supply chain?

effect on GDP/employment? And impact on inward investment?

our competitors, and how we compare

where is the leading-edge research? where UK stands?

other features

How much change by 2006?

What Enables Change Quality of research Ownership of research Availability of skilled people Sources of finance Instrumentation, standards Infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities (e.g. fabrication facilities) Structure and organisation of industry and markets Regulatory Environment Policies for Health Services and other public sector markets Intellectual Property Regimes Other issues (please add your own)

Quality of research

Ownership of research

Availability of skilled people

Sources of finance

Instrumentation, standards

Infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities (e.g. fabrication facilities)

Structure and organisation of industry and markets

Regulatory Environment

Policies for Health Services and other public sector markets

Intellectual Property Regimes

Other issues (please add your own)

How do we know we are beating the competition? Relative performance with other countries: UK research recognised by global firms as leading edge UK firms assembling high value added patent portfolios Venture capitalists and inward investors investing in UK start-ups International collaborations End users seeking/ recognising value of UK products (market share) Availability/size of facilities in the UK Number of graduates and post-graduates in relevant disciplines Other issues (please add your own)

Relative performance with other countries:

UK research recognised by global firms as leading edge

UK firms assembling high value added patent portfolios

Venture capitalists and inward investors investing in UK start-ups

International collaborations

End users seeking/ recognising value of UK products (market share)

Availability/size of facilities in the UK

Number of graduates and post-graduates in relevant disciplines

Other issues (please add your own)

What do we do to make it happen? S teps which need to be taken to maximise the likelihood of your success scenarios Research People Facilities Finance and taxation Access to technology [and international collaboration] Regulatory issues Other issues]

S teps which need to be taken to maximise the likelihood of your success scenarios

Research

People

Facilities

Finance and taxation

Access to technology [and international collaboration]

Regulatory issues

Other issues]

(End of workshop presentation) - much produced on fly!

June 2002 - the “output” - but action already

Foresight.gov.uk has been “refocused” But issues of long-tem challenges do not go away And need to source and combine knowledge inputs from many and novel sources is intensified Thus scenario techniques - OF MANY KINDS (some more Foresight-like) - are revitalised, in business as well as in state, and especially in RTD.

But issues of long-tem challenges do not go away

And need to source and combine knowledge inputs from many and novel sources is intensified

Thus scenario techniques - OF MANY KINDS (some more Foresight-like) - are revitalised, in business as well as in state, and especially in RTD.

Real End of Presentation Thanks! CRIC Success in Nanotechnologies