Grand challenges and uk foresight

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Presentation about how UK foresight has dealt with the sorts of big issue that are known in Europe as "Grand Challenges".

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Grand challenges and uk foresight

  1. 1. OManchesterMIIRInstitute ofInnovation Research Grand Challenges and UK Foresight Ian Miles Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, MBS, UK and Research Laboratory for the Economics of Innovation, HSE, Moscow) September 2012 European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  2. 2. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Grand Challenges Research • Water security and vulnerability • Energy security and vulnerability • Health, illness, well being 21 Grand Challenges – • Sustainability and climate change major problem areas, • Ageing and demographic issues where interdisciplinary • Food security and culture research is required- for • Globalization and localization EU identified in “ERA • Social cohesion and diversity Toolkit” at • Technological security, hazard & risk • Consumption and behavioural http://community.iknowfutures.eu/ change • Globally, pervasive Innovation, knowledge & technology • problems include: Climate Work-life balance and mental health • Science, technology, ethics Change; Demographics/ • Crime, security, justice Ageing/ Health; Security of • Water/Energy/Food Governance, democracy, citizenship Multi- • Coexistence and conflict Supplies. • Social pathologies and ethics Grand Challenges involve disciplinary • Social exclusion, poverty, affluence Problems not so much Grand • Economic prosperity and dynamics • Solutions, as Urban and rural dynamics • Education and skills dynamics Great Multi- Responses Stakeholder European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012 Responses
  3. 3. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research “We don’t do Grand Challenges” European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  4. 4. OManchesterMIIRInstitute of We do do Foresight 3 Cycles, 18 years of the National Foresight ProgrammeInnovation Research Much documentation on website, http://www.foresight.gov.uk though some older material has been discarded European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  5. 5. OManchesterMIIRInstitute of We do do ForesightInnovation Research Foresight and related activities well beyond Programme The are also many regional and Foresight nongovernmental activities Programme Strategy DGRC Unit projects Research Council projects DEFRA Government RC & TSB “horizon departments prioritisation scanning” NHS,HSE horizon Risk scanning Agency More STI oriented More STI oriented More policy innovation oriented More policy innovation oriented European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012 (Little social innovation) (Little social innovation)
  6. 6. O Manchester First Cycle (1990s) ForesightMIIR Institute of Innovation Panels: Mix of technology and “demand” Research • ANRIE Agriculture, Horticulture & Forestry S&T •  Natural Resources & Environment users • Marine • Leisure & Learning • Food & Drink • Retail & Distribution • Transport • Financial Services • Defence & Aerospace • Health & Life Sciences • Manufacturing, Production & Business Processes • Chemicals • Construction S&T • Energyproducers All sectors examined drivers • Materials of change, often involving • IT, Electronics & Communications GCs for which they Foresight – British Council/Argentinian Visitors February 2012 considered responses
  7. 7. O Manchester <1/4 Steering Group Priorities MIIR Institute of Innovation Research Key Key priority priority areas areas Attractiveness Attractiveness Inter- Inter- mediate mediate areas areasEmergingEmerging areas areas Feasibility Feasibility European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  8. 8. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research The Third Cycle (ongoing) • Foresight relaunched in 2002. • The role of UK Foresight Programme now is NOT setting overall priorities. • This is largely carried out in the public sphere by (1) Research Councils [more basic research] and (2) the Technology Strategy Board [more applied research]. Also (3) many government departments (ministries) also fund research, especially DEFRA, DoH. • The Foresight Programme runs projects, horizon- scanning, plus some wider overviews European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  9. 9. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research Third Cycle• Focused Foresight , which is NOT: – setting overall priorities. – (generally) a matter of assessing a wide spectrum of technologies. – trying to “wire up” the innovation system overall – run around a set of standing (sector/technology) panels• At any one time there is a mix of projects (problem-driven vs. technology-driven; starting vs. concluding)• Aiming to: – inform (not instruct) public and private research funders, policy more generally – address issues which cross government department boundaries – “joined up government”• Embedded; evaluated in 2007 as successful and value for money. European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  10. 10. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Third Cycle project focus Research• Projects range over many areas of “technology-push” and “demand-pull”.• They vary in organisation, but typically: – Aim to last 2 years (+) – Pre-history: will only launch only if major stakeholder can be located who will engage with and champion the project SEPT.2012 European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  11. 11. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Third Cycle - methods Research• Begin with initial scoping seminar,• Literature and horizon scanning, in-house and external support,• State of science review• Use of futures techniques (eg scenarios) deliberately to avoid relying upon extrapolation or Business as Usual• Limited roles of panels, strong roles for coordinator(s) and key experts.• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will look like, recommendations for action,• Create/ mobilise Networks that are willing and able to take recommendations forward• One-year review of success after project official completion (is this enough?) European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  12. 12. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation 3rd Cycle Approach Research • Get range of ideas, locate high-level support • Limited roles for panels, strong roles for coordinator(s) and key experts • Begin with initial scoping seminar • Literature and horizon scanning, in-house and external support -> State of science review • Develop scenarios and appraise opportunities (success) - avoiding simple extrapolation or Business as Usual • Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will look like, recommendations for action, • Seek implementation through networks willing and able to take recommendations forward • One-year review of success after project official completion (is this enough?) • Impacts on broad policies, not just “classic” STI European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  13. 13. DIID Roadmap - technology to identify & characterise OManchesterMIIRInstitute of infectious diseases - designing smart swabs, hand-held or portable devices to analyse fluids.Innovation Research •Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level Foresight – British Council/Argentinian Visitors February 2012
  14. 14. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research DIID ImpactsDefra Biosecurity R&D funding styles •Click to edit Master textChip 2006-9 announcement£1.5bn env/agr 2008: £55m over 5 years STI Second levelInternational policy impacts – FAO summit Third level agrcommunique 2006, new Crisis Management Centre Fourth level- 25 African institutions collaboration in Fifth levelSACIDS – “major funding from donors” agr/hUK stakeholders – better awareness ofunderlying challenges(s), and scope forradical innovation Visitors February 2012 Foresight – British Council/Argentinian in future responses agr/h
  15. 15. O Manchester Other Foresight Programme Activities MIIR Institute of Innovation Research• Foresight Unit also coordinates horizon- scanning across UK government European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  16. 16. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research Other Activities - 1 European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  17. 17. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Horizon Scanning and Other Activities Research European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  18. 18. OManchester Technology and Innovation FuturesMIIRInstitute ofInnovation 2010 (update Expert group: Research imminent) •Undertook interviews and workshops with 180 representatives from industry, research, •international institutions and social enterprises •Identified 53 technologies which are •likely to be important to the UK in the 2020s, (comparative advantages, future needs, potential market size). “As the UK comes out of the economic downturn, it seems likely that future economic prosperity will derive in large part from seizing opportunities offered by technologies such as these.” •53 technologies - 28 clusters – 7 cross-cutting areas (But 4 main groups for workshops etc.) 1) Materials and Nanotechnologies; 2) Biotech and Pharmaceuticals; 3) Digital and Networks, 4) Energy and Low Carbon - estimates of size of the potential market in 2025, the disruptive potential of the technology, UK capability, and barriers and enablers. Messages about IP.SMEs, skills, and need for roadmaps. European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012 Promoted by minister
  19. 19. OManchester A Diverse EnvironmentMIIRInstitute ofInnovation Research• Overall (pure) S&T priority setting across areas is now the function of an overarching body for Research Councils (RCUK). This selects key areas to propose to HM Treasury. DGRC work feeds in here - Foresight as rationale. Some RCs undertake own Foresight work occasionally (e.g. ESRC Genomics Scenarios), or sponsor programmes on “the future of...” (e.g. EPSRC “manufacturing”).• TSB for innovation-oriented R&D - searching for tools?.• Foresight activities have been underway continually and/or on occasional basis in many locations, and many other parts of public sector and government have taken this on board.• Currently - limited use of Delphi-type methods in UK, though EU development ongoing.• The surprise is that so far much Foresight work has survived severe cuts to public expenditure and social research in the UK. European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  20. 20. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research Priorities beyond Foresight• The main applied R&D mechanism in the UK is the Technology Strategy Board, funding R&D programmes and Knowledge Transfer Networkshttp://www.innovateuk.org/ European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  21. 21. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research Technology Strategy Board 2 European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  22. 22. OManchesterMIIRInstitute of ResilienceInnovation Research and Risk European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  23. 23. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research DEFRA http://horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk/ European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012
  24. 24. MIIR OManchesterInstitute ofInnovation Research Foresight and Grand Challenges• Foresight is a way to bring together multi- disciplinary” analysis of challenges, and multi- stakeholder approaches to responses.• In the UK it is embedded into the policy mix, but is only part of the STI (and other) policy formation process – varying across challenges and over time.• Problems for democracy and technocracy in complex societies: short-term (and ideological) decision making, communication across boundaries.• These are Grand Challenges FOR Foresight European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

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