Grand Challenges, Disruptive Inovations, and Foresight

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Presentation ot OECD and HSE conference on Foresight for Grand Challenges

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Grand Challenges, Disruptive Inovations, and Foresight

  1. 1. Foresight for Grand Challenges: Grand Challenges for Foresight. Ian Miles© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012 Higher School of Economics Moscow 2012 www.hse.ru
  2. 2. Grand Challenges • Water security and vulnerability • Energy security and vulnerability • Health, illness, well being 21 Grand Challenges – • Sustainability and climate change major problem • Ageing and demographic issues areas, where • Food security and culture interdisciplinary research is • Globalization and localization required- for EU identified • Social cohesion and diversity in “ERA Toolkit” at • Technological security, hazard & risk • Consumption and behavioural change http://community.iknowfutures.eu/ • Innovation, knowledge & technology Globally, pervasive • Work-life balance and mental health problems include: Climate • Science, technology, ethics Change; Demographics/Multi- • Crime, security, justice Ageing/ Health; Security ofdisciplinary • Governance, democracy, citizenship Water/Energy/FoodProblems • Coexistence and conflict Supplies. Multi- • Social pathologies and ethics Grand Challenges involve Stakeholder • Social exclusion, poverty, affluence not so much Grand Responses • Economic prosperity and dynamics Solutions, as • Urban and rural dynamics Great • Education and skills dynamics Responses© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  3. 3. Grand Solutions - technologicalIn many cases, a large part of the Social and economicproblem reflects current modes causes or impactsof use of available technology of challenge Major Grand Technological Challenges Innovation Changing or sustaining The problem could be ameliorated social and or forestalled through prospective economic practices modes of use of new technology If current technologies contribute to, or cannot cope with, problems – then innovate our way around them – Grand Solutions.© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  4. 4. Techno-Optimism Change our sources of energy Social and economic causes or impacts of challenge Major Grand Technological Challenges Innovation Changing or sustainingGeoengineer the symptoms social and economic practices Major transitions may not require dramatically new technologies - likewise for “disruptive innovations”© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  5. 5. Problems with Tech Fixes Technology trajectories Social and economic liable to be driven by other causes or impacts factors: ideal unrealised. of challenge Adoption of technologies may Major Grand result in rebound effects Technological Challenges Underlying drivers of GC may continue to accumulate or Innovation accelerate Changing or sustaining Failure to address “side- social and effects” and other uses economic practices Transition to major new technologies is often a slow process, with many features where it is difficult to anticipate, or to use anticipations.© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  6. 6. Grand Challenges Dialogues, kno Situations that wledge fusion transcend across multiple single disciplines disciplines Complex Deeper and interaction of more shared processes at understanding different levels of “boundary areas”© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  7. 7. Grand Challenges: Great Responses, rather than Grand SolutionsGrand UnderstandingChallenges Dialogues, kno Situations that wledge fusion transcend across multiple single disciplines disciplines Demand Responses that Alignment of involve multiple action across actions multiple Great stakeholders Responding Responses© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  8. 8. Grand Challenges and Great Responses Analysis of Grand Challenge Communication among and development Dialogues, kno translation of experts and trajectories involved understandings into Situations that wledge fusion rationales for action transcend across multiple single disciplines disciplines Responses that Alignment of involve multiple action across actions multiple Specification of Action Mix Envisioning interactions and stakeholdersstakeholders and Communication with among and Outcomes identification of features of Contingencies and Risks action© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  9. 9. GCs are “Wicked Problems” C. West Churchman. Multiple 1967. "Guest Editorial“ disciplines Management Science Vol. 14, No. 4 Grand Multiple Multiple Policy Actions Challenge Actors H. Rittel and M. Webber; 1973, "Dilemmas in a Multiple General Theory of Planning," Stake- Policy Sciences, Vol. 4 pp. holders 155–169,© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  10. 10. Great Solutions require alignment Multiple disciplines Alignment of agents Multiple Multiple Policy Actions across Actors groups Multiple Stake- holders© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  11. 11. Alignment takes various forms and requires various approaches Multiple disciplines Alignment of knowledge Alignment of agents Multiple Multiple Policy Actions within Actors groups Alignment of In each case there is action uncertainty and learning Multiple over time: thus need Stake- scope for ongoing holders experimentation and adjustment© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  12. 12. Technological Responses • Major shifts in technological regime may not involve radical new technologies • Disruptive Innovations* may involve changing business models etc – more a matter of quantitative than qualitative change in technology • But revolutionary technologies by definition underpin disruptive technological innovations* Clayton M. Christensen (1997), The Innovators Dilemma, Boston, Mass:Harvard Business School Press© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  13. 13. Revolutionary technologies New • Displacement of existing Heartland technological regimes Technologies • Rise of new industrial sectors New • Transformation of costs Processes and • New functionality Products • New entrants, intruders from New Business other industries Models • Change in market structures and consumption patternsFreeman, Perez, etc.; cf C. Perez, (1983) “Structural Change and Assimilation ofNew Technologies” Futures 15 no 5 pp357-375© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  14. 14. Forecasting Technological Revolutions is also a Wicked Problem Pervasive Technologies preceded by Pervasive Uncertainties New Heartland Technologies Response from Incumbents Combinations of Knowledge Rate of Development Risks and Hazards (technologies) From Forecasting Application Areas to Foresight Combinations of Knowledge Development and Diffusion Demand and Modes of Use Reinvention Changing Practices© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  15. 15. At Least Two Wicked Problems Disruptive Grand Technologies as Challenges Multiple, Key to Great related, ongoing, Solutions embedded,, Foresight activities© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  16. 16. Knowledge can be brought to bear: but much remains underdeveloped Knowledge of Dynamics of Technological Change: Sociotechnical Constituencies, Product Cycles, etc. New Heartland Technologies Knowledge of Social and Combinations of Knowledge Rate of Development Risk Assessment and Economic Dynamics Management Application Areas Combinations of Knowledge Development and Diffusion Demand and Modes of Use Reinvention Changing Practices© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  17. 17. Grand Challenges for Foresight Problems of Engagement and Translation, Legitimacy Outreach and Expertise Aligning Narratives Political Institutions Advanced Concepts and Policy Cycles and Methods© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  18. 18. Some elements of a Great Response for Foresight Problems of Engagement and Translation, Legitimacy OutreachLinks to many organisations, and Expertisebuilding their capability, Tools and methods forembedding processes Science and visualisation, debate, decisions Policy beyondCross-institution collaborations Foresight Shadowing highly elaborate modelsand non-partisan initiatives and techniques with more explicable, hands on approaches Political Institutions Advanced Concepts and Policy Cycles and Methods Sharing experience across Foresight practitioners: a GC/GR forum? Links to other communities working on GC/GR policy.© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  19. 19. End of Presentation© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  20. 20. Challenges themselves vary Products of socioeconomic structures Acts of Acts of Nature Humans ThreatsOften combination of the tovarious features, and oftenoverlap between GCs wellbeing© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  21. 21. as does the role of technologies Products of socioeconomic structures Technological Technological elements of modes of elements of modes destruction of production and Acts of Acts of Nature consumption Humans Technological elements of responses to GCs Threats to wellbeing© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
  22. 22. Major new technologies Possibilities of major change in how socioeconomic activities are undertaken – Products of affecting problems in complex ways socioeconomic structures Technological Technological elements of modes of elements of modes destruction of production and Acts of Acts of Nature consumption Humans Technological elements of responses to GCs Threats Possibilities of major change Possibilities of major change to in how destructive activities in what and how responses are undertaken – wellbeing are undertaken – new security threats preventative or ameliorative action© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012

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