E-Scienceand e-research: how can we understand their development and forecast their futures? Paper given to major e-Science conference in 2008.

2. WHAT SORT OF BEAST IS e-RESEARCH? Using e-infrastructure Diffusion: No of users (or: intensity of use; Range of applications…) Product cycle: “ maturity” of product Pioneers Laggards Take-off into mass acceptance: less “expert” users Changing Communities: types of user, of network Product/service designs in flux: Growing focus on functionality, supply efficiency, commoditisation Differentiation, bottlenecks, next big thing Changing Services and Impacts: types and modes of application Time What timescale: years? Decades?

3. WHERE ARE WE WITH e-RESEARCH? Using e-infrastructure Time Diffusion: No of users (or: intensity of use; Range of applications…) Product cycle: “ maturity” of product 1) Are we just at the beginning? How far will diffusion go? Is this something really new? Can we extrapolate from pioneers? 2) Is take-off underway, has it happened? Are communities established and expanding? Have usage patterns stabilised? What timescale: years? Decades? 3) Are things really pretty mature – no prospect of radical change, because requisite facilities well-diffused?

4. WHERE ARE WE WITH e-RESEARCH has… Using e-infrastructure Implications for the ways in which we can think about sorts of community and practice, sorts of application and effect, whether we expect change to be incremental or (potentially) revolutionary, how problems and opportunities may be identified and addressed What timescale: years? Decades? Time Diffusion: No of users (or: intensity of use; Range of applications…) Product cycle: “ maturity” of product

5. Two other thoughts about these trajectories - 1 Envelope Curves What timescale: years? Decades? Time Diffusion: No of users (or: intensity of use; Range of applications…) Product cycle: “ maturity” of product We can expect many specific technological trajectories Uptake data for a specific application will not tell whole story – nor will evidence on use, problems, etc.

6. The other thought about these trajectories Trajectory of Hype Technology Trigger Peak of . Inflated .. Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Time Optimism/ excitement about the service or technology Political &/or business support? Source: Gartner Group , who place various Technologies on this; according to Wolfgang Gentsch, in 2006 they put Grid Computing here and tera-architectures here What timescale: years? Decades?

18. End of presentation