Outcomes of European Foresight Projects – FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/ Presentation by Ian Miles, PREST [email_address] Note: this is a personal view, not necessarily consensus or majority view among project members!!

FISTERA A Thematic Network on Foresight on Information Society Technologies in the European Research Area Competitive action under the European FPV IST programme 3 years (+) from 01 September 2002 Three objectives: Compare results of national foresight exercises Provide a new forum for consensus building on future visions for IST Contribute to constructing the European Research Area through benchmarking and community building, by providing a dynamic pan European platform on foresight on ISTs Several discrete lines of work

A Thematic Network on Foresight on Information Society Technologies in the European Research Area

Competitive action under the European FPV IST programme

3 years (+) from 01 September 2002

Three objectives:

Compare results of national foresight exercises

Provide a new forum for consensus building on future visions for IST

Contribute to constructing the European Research Area through benchmarking and community building, by providing a dynamic pan European platform on foresight on ISTs

Several discrete lines of work

Workpackages PREST Workpackage 1 Review and Analysis of National Foresight Results Workpackage 2 Key European Technology Trajectories Workpackage 3 IST Actor Space Mapping Workpackage 4 IST Futures Forum Workpackage 5 Dissemination and Interaction with the Research Community Workpackage 6 Management IPTS ITAS ARCsys TiLab

Workpackage 1 Workpackage 1 Review and Analysis of National Foresight Results Variations in Foresight practices Zeitgeist problems (  extra work!) perceptions of EU diversity, plus common challenges (ageing, bureaucracy)… common themes across projects – Moore’s Law, convergence, AI, sensors… Application areas: education, e-govt., health, transport Drivers: security, entertainment

Variations in Foresight practices

Zeitgeist problems (  extra work!)

perceptions of EU diversity, plus common challenges (ageing, bureaucracy)…

common themes across projects – Moore’s Law, convergence, AI, sensors…

Application areas: education, e-govt., health, transport

Drivers: security, entertainment

Workpackage 2 Workpackage 2 Key European Technology Trajectories Workpackage 2 Key European Technology Trajectories

Workpackage 2 Reports, presentations and online tool Technology Functionality Service Ambient Four Layers List of developments Year related today 2008 2020 Disruptions; cost and geographical trends, etc. – ambitious, rich content Workpackage 2 Key European Technology Trajectories

Technology

Functionality

Service

Ambient

List of developments

Year related

today

2008

2020

Workpackage 2 Reports, presentations and online tool http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com/ Storage Computation Sensors Display Wet ware Nano technology Local Wireless Access Printing bits into atoms The Grid Language Understanding Workpackage 2 Key European Technology Trajectories

Storage

Computation

Sensors

Display

Wet ware

Nano technology

Local Wireless Access

Printing bits into atoms

The Grid

Language Understanding

Workpackage 3 Workpackage 3 IST Actor Space Mapping Workpackage 3 IST Actor Space Mapping

Workpackage 3 database of actors patent analysis of EU S&W priorities of major labs study of software Workpackage 3 IST Actor Space Mapping

database of actors

patent analysis of EU S&W

priorities of major labs

study of software

Patent analysis of strengths

Workpackage 4 Workpackage 3 IST Actor Space Mapping Workpackage 4 IST Futures Forum Workpackage 4 IST Futures Forum

Workpackage 4 Delphi and Scenario Studies Key application areas (delphi) Scenario review, Multiple scenario workshop, Success scenario and policy priority workshop Workpackage 4 IST Futures Forum

Delphi and Scenario Studies

Key application areas (delphi)

Scenario review, Multiple scenario workshop, Success scenario and policy priority workshop

The Delphi Focus on Applications, not enabling technologies Asked about implications for EU goals, not about forecasts of when developments happen

6 “Lisbon” Goals

European Capabilities Also inputs on Actions, Challenges, Impediments and Stakeholders

Four Futures - Different Patterns of use of new IST Competitive and Dynamic Knowledge Society: rapid growth in IST use economy-driven innovations uneven development Cohesive and Integrated Knowledge Society: rapid growth in IST use economy-driven innovations much reduction in disparities across EU Challenged Knowledge Society: slow and very uneven growth in IST use innovations in specific areas major concerns about technology and market Sustainable and Inclusive Knowledge Society: new paradigms of IST use social & community-driven innovations environmental and other objectives Progress and polaris-ation Challenged and contested Doing things differently Catch Up and Creative WS1 WS1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Competitive and Dynamic Knowledge Society:

rapid growth in IST use

economy-driven innovations

uneven development

Cohesive and Integrated Knowledge Society:

rapid growth in IST use

economy-driven innovations

much reduction in disparities across EU

Challenged Knowledge Society:

slow and very uneven growth in IST use

innovations in specific areas

major concerns about technology and market

Sustainable and Inclusive Knowledge Society:

new paradigms of IST use

social & community-driven innovations

environmental and other objectives

Each scenario seen as reflected to some extent WS1

Rough Mapping of 4 Scenarios on 8 Goals Competitive & Dynamic Catching-up Challenged Cohesive & Sustainable WS2 WS2

Views of a Success Scenario WS2 WS2 The orange line shows the most voted (mode) views for the success scenario The blue line shows average (mean) of the views for the success scenario

Priority-setting Results WS2 WS2 Importance

Top Right Corner… Ensure standards at EU level (standardisation, compatibility) ensure compatibility of past-present-future systems PC-4 Training for IST at all levels in society including SME development, educational programmes at all levels including universities. This includes lifelong learning for pleasure and for the workforce PA-3 E-government applications should drive change. Governments should move directly to adopt e-government services delivery PA-7 Let communities take control. To allow regional/local communities more say in major public IST investment (the principle of subsidiarity) PA-5 Research on security technology, hard and software, communication PC-8 Interdisciplinary R&D should be directly encouraged by the EU and governments PA-8 EU to sponsor education of end-users in security policies for user empowerment (to control the process) at EU level to balance security & privacy, and to educate users regulations to generate competence in the communities public debate, awareness raising, ethical curriculum to educate young people PC-1 Raising awareness of citizens and the business community, (in particular the SME community), to the importance of IST in the future economy of the EU PA-9

Foresight Outputs Intelligence on Foresight and IST Scene RTD policy priority analysis of variable granularity . Scenario Workshop – Innovative Information Society e.g. “user-centred” innovation Delphi – key applications for EU goals e.g. education and learning Trajectories and Capabilities – key underpinning S&T e.g. flexible embedded communications capabilities, profiling and tagging systems All need to be taken into account – IS policy is multilevel, multidomain policy.

Intelligence on Foresight and IST Scene

RTD policy priority analysis of variable granularity .

Scenario Workshop – Innovative Information Society e.g. “user-centred” innovation

Delphi – key applications for EU goals e.g. education and learning

Trajectories and Capabilities – key underpinning S&T e.g. flexible embedded communications capabilities, profiling and tagging systems

All need to be taken into account – IS policy is multilevel, multidomain policy.

Impacts and Uses FISTERA did not `` change FP7 course” but ” had a multiplying effect” Contribution to EU IST policy support EC's advisory groups (eEurope, ISTAG), DGINFSO meetings, ERA National IST Forum, academic & policy conferences, presentation to Commissioner Reding’s Cab., National IST Research Directors Forum, DG RTD KTE group Contribution to national IST policy support FISTERA methodology employed in (running) Foresight Exercises in Romania, Hungary, Austria, Poland and Colombia. Impacts in Austria, etc. Contributions to Research community 20 Reports & Studies, 4 (+ 2) books, articles, CD ROMs; FISTERA reviewed by ETNO, SwissCom’s Vision 2015, NISTEP; links with ESTO, European Foresight Monitoring Network, FOR- LEARN ….

Critical Issues FISTERA produced considerable volume of original output, reviewed well and attracting much interest (?few surprises?) Problems with integration and synthesis of different WPs, low flexibility of working arrangements (several efforts in final publications) Limited interaction with key end-users (e.g. ISTAG) (? novel Foresight remained rather abstract?) Note: this is a personal view, not necessarily majority or consensus among project members!!

FISTERA produced considerable volume of original output, reviewed well and attracting much interest (?few surprises?)

Problems with integration and synthesis of different WPs, low flexibility of working arrangements (several efforts in final publications)

Limited interaction with key end-users (e.g. ISTAG) (? novel Foresight remained rather abstract?)

End of Presentation