Does the New Economy demand New Statistical Approaches?
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Does the New Economy demand New Statistical Approaches?

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Discusses how indicators and statistical systems may need revision in light of socioeconomic macrochanges in advanced countries, proposes scenario workshop approach to progressing the issue.

Discusses how indicators and statistical systems may need revision in light of socioeconomic macrochanges in advanced countries, proposes scenario workshop approach to progressing the issue.

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Does the New Economy demand New Statistical Approaches? Does the New Economy demand New Statistical Approaches? Presentation Transcript

  •  
  • Does the New Economy demand New Statistical Approaches ? [email_address] http://les1.man.ac.uk/cric/ http://les1.man.ac.uk/prest/
  • Outline
    • Challenge of new economy - Knowledge-Based Society
    • An approach to determining new directions for activity - success scenario workshops
    • A “thought experiment” of how it might work for new economy statistics - statistical goals for the knowledge-based society
    • Some very provisional conclusions
    View slide
  • “ Knowledge-Based Society ”
    • Challenges to statistics associated with:
    • Information Society
    • Services Economy
    • Knowledge Production and Use
    • Innovation
    • Globalisation
    View slide
  • Information Society “ Moore’s law” 1960 1970 1980 1990  Millions of Instructions per second (MIPS) 100 10 1.0 0.1 .01 Mainframe Minicomputer PC Embedded
  • Information Society
    • Continuing dramatic performance trends (Moore’s Law, Gilder’s Law, Metcalf’s Law, etc.)
    • Rise (and rising relative cost) of software, services
    • Hedonics
    • Impact on economic performance (productivity paradox, US upturn)
    • Technology measurement
    • Digital divide
    • IS evolution - islands  archipelago  continent  ??ecosystem
    • etc…
    • MUCH measurement effort on some topics - esp ICT use, ecommerce - e.g. SIBIS
    Mainframe Minicomputer PC Embedded 1960 1970 1980 1990  Millions of Instructions per second (MIPS) 100 10 1.0 0.1 .01
  • Service Economy
    • Services’ Employment Growth - trend only somewhat less marked in terms of output growth; very strong trends for business services
    • No longer “residual”
  • Service Economy
    • Problems in measuring output, quality change, and also trade etc.
    • Distinctive features of services organisation (though convergence?)
    • “ Services” grow in all sectors, little track of associated service output
    • Business services and KIBS in particular contribute to performance of whole economy (e.g. Tomlinson); these are often very poorly tracked, and functions little understood
  • Knowledge Production and Use “ Intangible investment”: R&D, technology payment, software expenditures, public expenditure on education (proxy for training expenditures), and advertising expenditures. 1985 1989 1991 1992 source: European Commission 1998 Share of GDP: 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
  • Knowledge Production and Use: eWORK Enterprises with 50+ employees, EU15 + 3 accession states, 2000 source: EMERGENCE eOutsourcing> in-firm eWork “ classic” telework < mobile telework
  • Knowledge Production and Use
    • Knowledge activated in distributed systems, networks: new unit of analysis?
    • Much effort in firms in knowledge management, rise of intangible assets and of accounting for intangibles (and their performance)
    • Lifelong learning and other issues for human capital; skills shortages
  • Innovation Globalisation
    • Services’ Innovation
    • R&D as only part of innovative effort
    • Patents capture only part of innovative output
    • Innovations are not all equal, and take many forms (not just technological)
    • New actors...
    • Expansion of global firms: where to attribute activity, how to deal with transfers
    • New forms of competition in network economy
    • ...
  • Role of Statistics in “ Knowledge-Based Society ”
    • Rapid change, complex relations - demand for more rapid intelligence
    • Using knowledge to inform decisions better - evidence-based policy etc.
    • But also changes in knowledge production - “mode 2”, “distributed systems”, etc.
    • And more uncertain, provisional, cross-disciplinary issues - need “trans-science”, expertise
    • Emergence of new approaches to mobilising knowledge - and expertise
  • One Approach: Success Scenario Workshops
    • Essentially examine ~ What could be feasible, desirable success in the field?
    • Had a sponsor with demand for the process, decisions to make
    • Recognised need for drawing on widely-dispersed knowledge to develop viable vision and make useful plans
    • Use background research and analysis to inform dialogue; focus on applications and not just “disciplinary” problems
  • ICT, genomics and most recently nanotechnology as subject areas. 06/02 - “output” published - but action was already underway Royal Statistical Society Conference - Plymouth, September 2002 Nanotechnology CRIC
  • Workshop Preparation
    • Define subfields - e.g. for nanotechnology, 6 application areas - drug delivery informatics, instrumentation,, new materials, sensors & actuators , tissue engineering.
    • Prepare background reports - benchmarking, SWOT analyses, Foresight reviews, data (even modelling), scenarios...
    • Select participants - researchers, policymakers, users and intermediaries (e.g. investors)
  • Workshop Structure
    • Starting from the benchmarking studies and “snapshots” for the application areas, break-out groups and plenary sessions consider:
    • Where the UK stands
    • What are Drivers and Shapers of, and Barriers to - Change?
    • What would SUCCESS SCENARIOS look like?
    • How to get to Success? What actions are required (by whom)?
    • What are indicators of progress?
  • Hypothetical NESSS Workshop - New Economy Statistics Success Scenario
    • Assume that focus will be on official and semi-official data sources and definitions - not so much on analyses, techniques (is this right?)
    • BACKGROUND MATERIAL
    • Some summary of major themes, issues, conclusions from IAOS Conference London Aug 2002 “Official Statistics and the New Economy” - - how strong is the case for rethink of statistics?
    • Argumentative analyses of nature of knowledge-based society trends, demands for statistics. Demystification of some myths (e.g. self-employment, innovative role of SMEs - Johnstone, Tether).
    • “ Benchmarking” - review of major initiatives and efforts elsewhere
    • Scenarios? Different prospects for role of official statistics in society?
    New Statistics
  • Hypothetical NESSS Workshop - New Economy Statistics Success Scenario
    • What subfields to organise around?
    • Major areas of challenge?
    • Our analysis of KBS sees 3-5 major elements - Information Society, Services Economy, Organised Knowledge, Innovation, Globalisation
    • Or other approaches; OECD, DTI, or Australian Bureau of Statistics framework model’s 5 dimensions - Context, Innovation and entrepreneurship, Human capital, Information and communications technology, Outcomes (Sheridan Roberts IAOS paper 2002)
    • Major application areas?
    • E.g. use by policymakers - macroeconomic policy, public sectors (health, education, etc), policies for drivers of KBS (trade, competition, etc) and capabilities (R&D, human resources, innovation, etc. And use by economic actors - financial services, consultancies, industry associations, etc.
    • Other?
    • Major fields of statistics, or even methods of production?
  • Success Scenarios
    • Credible, optimistic
    • Expert consensus if possible
    • Informed by benchmarking and other inputs
    • “ Stretch target”
    • Shared visions, improved understanding (break out of “boxes”)
    • Better indicators of progress (and projections)
    • Action points
    WHAT? WHY?
  • Drivers of Change
      • Nanotechnology application groups’ orientation:
      • Access to technology:
        • New knowledge in the UK and internationally
      • Local & global markets & competition:
        • demand pull from users
        • appreciation of opportunities from knowledge
      • Other issues
        • Special features that distinguish your area ?
        • UK’s special advantages or problems compared to competitors?
  • Hypothetical NESSS Workshop Drivers of Change
      • Challenges associated with Knowledge BS
        • Rate of Change
        • ICT and Information Society (productivity paradox, hedonic pricing...)
        • Services and Service Economy (service quality change, role of KIBS...)
        • Knowledge Production and Use (KM, intangible assets, network orgn...)
        • Innovation (innovative effort, collaboration...)
        • Globalisation (intrafirm/network trading, ecommerce...)
        • Others?
      • New Demands:
        • Changing roles of government; intersection of policy areas Legitimacy, public attitudes?
        • Business appreciation of opportunities from data analysis
        • Others?
      • Other issues:
        • Possible new data sources, methods - new modes of dissemination?
        • Scope for international collaboration?
  • Hypothetical NESSS Workshop Drivers of Change
      • Outcomes would be:
        • Revised List of Drivers
        • Identification of Key Factors
        • Potentially, identification of degree of uncertainty, need for further research, other sources of knowledge (and participants) required)
        •  Input to next steps in process.
  • What Indicators of ‘Success’?
    • key products and applications
    • impact of products on end-user performance
    • local and global end-user markets - size and UK share
    • industry structure - large firms, SMEs, spin-outs
    • business model (e.g. high value added)
    • where are the UK companies in the supply chain?
    • effect on GDP/employment? And impact on inward investment?
    • our competitors, and how we compare
    • where is the leading-edge research? where UK stands?
    • other features
    How much change by 2006?
    • What key new statistics?
    • What in terms of timeliness, adaptability?
    • What level of user uptake and impact on end-user performance (different types of users and uses)
    • possible estimation of value for money of new developments?
    • where UK work compares with leading-edge research elsewhere
    • influence on EU, international practice
    • other features??
    Hypothetical NESSS Workshop Indicators of ‘Success’ How much change by when? Quantifiable??
    • New statistics:
    • Output measures for 75% of public and private services widely accepted; services coverage improved (esp KIBS), data on IT vintages and utilisation; innovation statistics cover organisational and service change; data on business processes; skill gaps; better input-output...
    • Research explicates:
    • Valuation of intangibles; “impacts” of IT use; role of outsourcing and service use; innovation processes in networks
    • Roadmap for future statistics developments
    • timetable for continuing development, benchmarked
    • Influence on international processes
    • change-enabling role in Eurostat, OECD, UN… Use of ERA… quantify??
    • Use of statistics in UK:
    • 10% increase in citation of each of a set of data resources in academic journals; impact on ESRC programmes; 15% increase in business-initiated contacts with NSO...
    Hypothetical NESSS Workshop (Very) Speculative Indicators
  • What Enables Change
      • Quality of research
      • Ownership of research
      • Availability of skilled people
      • Sources of finance
      • Instrumentation, standards
      • Infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities (e.g. fab facilities)
      • Structure and organisation of industry and markets
      • Regulatory Environment
      • Policies for Health Services and other public sector markets
      • Intellectual Property Regimes
      • Other issues (please add your own)
  • Hypothetical NESSS Workshop Enablers of Change
      • Quality and legitimacy of routine statistical apparatus, research efforts into improving data, scope for satellite accounting etc.
      • Links to user constituencies ( need more development ?)
      • Links to social science ( ESRC sees stats problems )
      • Availability of skilled people ( shortages ? - interdisciplinarity ?)
      • Finance
      • Infrastructure and technology
      • Public sector and administrative by-product data
      • Good examples from elsewhere
      • Other issues ...
  • Indicators of ‘competitiveness’
      • Performance relative to other countries:
      • UK research recognised by global players as leading edge
      • UK firms assembling high value added patent portfolios
      • Venture capitalists and inward investors investing in UK start-ups (statistics-based KIBS??)
      • International collaborations
      • End users seeking/ recognising value of UK products (market share) (citation, use in social research, use overseas?)
      • Availability/size of facilities in the UK
      • Number of graduates and post-graduates in relevant disciplines
      • Other issues (please add your own)
  • What do we do to make it happen?
      • S teps which need to be taken to maximise the likelihood of your success scenarios
        • Research
        • People
        • Facilities
        • Finance and taxation
        • Access to technology [and international collaboration]
        • Regulatory issues
        • Other issues
    Moving from science to commercial/socially useful applications
  • Hypothetical NESSS Workshop
      • Key Actions:
        • Research (where priorities - problems that could be effectively tackled)
        • People (what skills, organisation, management, linkages with HEI research)
        • Facilities (IT for production, processing, dissemination)
        • Finance
        • International collaboration (inc privacy, survey control)
        • Regulatory issues
        • Other issues - political support, autonomy/ professionalism, public attitudes
  • Provisional Conclusions
    • Many pressures for change
    • Already much clamour about specific problems and new data requirements
    • Despite ‘new economy’ hype, substantial challenges are evolving
    • Time ripe for significant initiatives on several fronts, despite (a) inertia and (b) need for time-series
    • Worth exploring new processes. Heavy challenges - resource needs - need to develop case to justify effort.
  • Workshop Method
    • Would it be worthwhile? New approach, new dialogue; new case to make to paymasters?…How to organise (e.g. real-time, IT use…) What alternatives?
    • Would need sponsor, champion, links to change agents
    • Could be transnational rather than UK
    • Need to link to ongoing efforts underway in UK (e.g. ecommerce), OECD and EU (e.g. SIBIS), “academic” research
    • Who to organise?
  • End of Presentation CRIC Success in Nanotechnologies