The future of services

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Presentation from HSE Foresight conference October 2013

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  • There is much interesting insight here. I think it is better to think in terms of value (and Value Systems) and Offerings as things enterprises orchestrate in these value systems. These offerings are a combination of products and services. You cannot see these in isolation and these are embedded in Physical or Human activities. That is how I think of these. Foresight is essential and is offered from external people as a service.
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The future of services

  1. 1. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 The Future for Services Ian Miles Higher School of Economics Moscow 2013 www.hse.ru
  2. 2. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 The Future for Services • The Future for Service(s) versus the Futures is Service(s) • Service versus Services • Trends “we all know” • Transformations of Service • Challenges • Foresight work ignores service developments at its risk. • Importance of: • Grasping trends and transformations • Seeing services as users of Foresight • Seeing Foresight as service
  3. 3. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Common Knowledge: Expansion of Service Industries World Bank, 2000, Beyond Economic Growth at: www.worldbank.org /depweb/beyond/ global/chapter9.ht ml
  4. 4. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 20 30 40 50 60 70 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* World Developed Economies and European Union Central and South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS East Asia South-East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends, January 2009 http://www.ilo.org/wcms p5/groups/public/@dgre ports/@dcomm/docume nts/publication/wcms_10 1461.pdf Service Sector Employment growing in all regions Services-Dominated Economies
  5. 5. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Common Knowledge: Services are a Global Force • Service Transnationals • Service Offshoring
  6. 6. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Common Knowledge: Services are being Transformed through IT use • Service Industries as Major Consumers of new IT • New IT as Technological and Industrial Revolution in Service Industries • Service Innovation in Process and Products
  7. 7. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Information Technology evolution 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s? Inspired by Marc Weiser et al: - cf: I Miles (2005) “Be Here Now”, INFO Vol. 7 No. 2, pp49-71 Mainframe  mini VANs Experts Centralised Numbers Micro  PC LANs Profess- ionals “End- User” Text/ graphics Networks & laptops Web Public Content Commun- ication Tablet, sm artphone WiFi, 3G Wide public Web2.0, P2P Multimedia Sensors, A ctuators WiMax, 4 G,cloud Ubiquit- ous Internet of things, loc ations Control Biodevice + + + Ambient Semantic web Enhance- ment
  8. 8. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Mainframe  mini VANs Experts Centralised Numbers Micro  PC LANs Profess- ionals “End- User” Text/ graphics Networks & laptops Web Public Content Commun- ication Tablet, sm artphone WiFi, 3G, Wide public Web2.0, P2P Multimedia Sensors, A ctuators WiMax, 4 G,cloud Ubiquit- ous Internet of things, loc ations Control Biodevice? + + + Ambient Semantic web Enhance- ment Information Society 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s? One for Many People One for a Few People One for Each Person/Place A Few for Each Person/Place Many for Each Person/Place Isolation Connectivity Networking Ubiquity Island Archipelago Continent Ecosystem Sottware unbundling: new KIBS industry Network and new Online Services Apps Everyday services: health and lifestyleLocational Services
  9. 9. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Mainframe  mini VANs Experts Centralised Numbers Micro  PC LANs Profess- ionals “End- User” Text/ graphics Networks & laptops Web Public Content Commun- ication Tablet, sm artphone WiFi, 3G, Wide public Web2.0, P2P Multimedia Sensors, A ctuators WiMax, 4 G,cloud Ubiquit- ous Internet of things, loc ations Control Biodevice? + + + Ambient Semantic web Enhance- ment Information Technology Use is one shaper of Service Economy 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s? One for Many People One for a Few People One for Each Person/Place A Few for Each Person/Place Many for Each Person/Place Service Economy 1.0 Service Economy 2.0 Service Economy 3.0 Evolving Views of Service Economy (and Service Innovation)
  10. 10. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Service Economy 1.0 Service Economy 1.0 “Post-Industrial Society” - 1960s-’80s • Economy of services sector(s) • Growth driven by consumer demand, welfare state provision, low productivity growth • Innovation relatively low, supplier-driven; MoT seen as adoption of technology from elsewhere • Industries are pre- or post-industrial - too complicated or particularised for mass production • Industrialisation of services via scale and modularisation • Examples: Bell, Fuchs,Levitt, Touraine
  11. 11. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Service Economy 2.0 Service Economy 2.0 Knowledge-Based Economy: 1980s-2000s • New Information Technology widely adopted in service organisations- especially back-office in large organisations. • New IT-related services assisting this - supporting business processes and innovation across the economy. • New services and service delivery, new e-services. • Information Society, Knowledge Economy • Examples: Barras, Gershuny, Quinn.
  12. 12. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Service Economy 3.0 Service Economy 3.0 Economy of Service(s) 2010s- • Service orientation (Service-Dominant Logic) to forefront: Synthesis viewpoint • Continuing Emergence of Processes and Practices– will be invigorated by use of new technologies like sensors, data analytics, etc. • Manufacturing – servicisiation and beyond. • Product-service solutions and Grand Challenges • Examples: Gallouj, Spohrer, Vargo/Lusch.
  13. 13. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Received wisdom is evolving... • But may still fail to adequately deal with several important factors and forces: – Diversity of services – Service is not necessarily upgraded – New technologies may play major roles – Manufacturing may be further transformed – New tools for design of service systems.
  14. 14. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Three Transformational Types Physical Transformations e.g Cleaning, Transport Often much manual, sometimes low-skill work Environmental sustainability, “self-service” Power and engine systems; technologies under repair etc. Business model change Human Transformations e.g. Health, Personal Services High presence, often high involvement of Consumer/User Human diversity, Interpersonal relations Many specialised, from very low to very high-tech Changing role of public sector Informational Transformations e.g Finance, Communicati ons Range of mass and customised services Keeping apace of platforms and users,IP IT and supporting systems (e.g. Batteries) New functionality (e.g. Location) and knowledge (e.g. Neuro...) Manual Activity Knowledge-intensive activity Examples Features Challenges Technologie s Trends Many activities, and most service industries, involve some mixture of all three
  15. 15. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Services Innovation =/= Service Improvement • Industrialisation and standardisation • Mass customisation and (a) choice dilemmas (b) personal distance – overfamiliarity • Scope for using social media, etc.
  16. 16. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Manufacturing-Services • Beyond servicsiation • Communications systems linking manufacturing production processes with customers... • ...and consumption processes with producers. • Plus new modes of factoryless manufacturing, including 3-D printing, nanomanufacturing
  17. 17. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Product-Service Systems • Complex systems to analyse and model: • Need for new tools and new design approaches. • Service design as critical for Future for Services – and Future in general... • Innovation and innovation management for tools.
  18. 18. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 New Service Technologies • Neurotechnology/cognitive science • Information and biotechnologies for health, sports, etc.
  19. 19. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 Conclusions • Service thinking has evolved alongside growth of “service economy” (-> economy of services) • Services need Foresight • Foresight is a service process and should be approached as such • Foresight exercises and activities need to take into account growth and changing nature of services.
  20. 20. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013 End of Presentation

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