Perception of the significance and nature of events before they have occurred.
Care in providing for the future; prudence.
The act of looking forward.
knowing when to shut your mouth before someone suggests it!
Looking ahead – for significant things Relating future opportunities and threats to current capabilities and strategies We all do this : but how systematically? How long –term and challenging? Using what resources and pooled resources? How embedded into culture? into action?
Not Really! Crisis economy: more sorts of knowledge relevant to sustainable recovery Policy Technology External factors Denial: ignore “weak” signals Environment Energy Finance Knowledge-driven economy: more sorts of knowledge about a wider range of issues Technologies Markets Globalisation
National (and other mainly government-funded programmes emerged in Europe mid-1990s; response to funding and legitimacy crises in STI policy and ongoing weaknesses in innovation systems.
Initial European learning from Japanese approaches, which in turn had “borrowed” American futures tools in new contexts.
Major national programmes conducted in most countries
Evolution of focus, away from narrow technology foresight to include more socioeconomic dimensions
Increasing number of “focused” exercises, alongside or instead of very wide-ranging programmes. Embedded foresight in agencies.
Meanwhile, European business use of futures approaches very much influenced directly by US corporate futures work.
Three Main Components Beyond the usual suspects: distributed knowledge and governance Beyond the ivory tower: analysis for (and with) policy users, within policy processes Beyond the business plan : responding to longer-term, boundary-crossing issues. Prospectives Planning Participation
Freight varies much more across Scenarios than Passenger Transport Road remains dominant, though other modes grow
UK Foresight Programme Accepting of integrated intelligent infrastructure Low impact transport High impact transport Resistant to integrated intelligent infrastructure Intelligent Infrastructure Futures OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT