Trends and Scenarios in Agricultural Development COLIN CHARTRES International Water Management Institute

What is causing the world food crisis? Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization are transforming food consumption, production and markets (von Braun (2008) Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply shocks at a time of surging demand for feed, food and fuel have lead to drastic price increases Biofuel production has further impacted the situation and disproportionately affects the poor through price level and volatility effects

Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization are transforming food consumption, production and markets (von Braun (2008)

Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply shocks at a time of surging demand for feed, food and fuel have lead to drastic price increases

Biofuel production has further impacted the situation and disproportionately affects the poor through price level and volatility effects

A WATER CRISIS? The underlying hypothesis is that water scarcity will be a predominant factor in future food cries

The underlying hypothesis is that water scarcity will be a predominant factor in future food cries

The question was asked as to whether we have enough water resources to grow enough food to meet future demand for food and biofuels? The Comprehensive Assessment answered No, unless …. We change the way we think and act on water issues. KEY QUESTION

The question was asked as to whether we have enough water resources to grow enough food to meet future demand for food and biofuels?

The Comprehensive Assessment answered

No,

unless ….

We change the way we think and act on water issues.

DRIVERS OF WATER DEMAND What are the driving forces? Growing population Dietary change Urbanization Biofuel production Need for environmental water Climate change i.e. similar to the food crisis

What are the driving forces?

Growing population

Dietary change

Urbanization

Biofuel production

Need for environmental water

Climate change

i.e. similar to the food crisis

WE ALREADY INHABIT A WATER SCARCE WORLD 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining

SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON WATER AVAILABILITY e.g. Rainfall and GDP growth in Ethiopia

Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production

Meat China India USA Consumption and income 1961-2000 Milk China India USA

Water and land for biofuels now and 2030 irrigated Million ha Harvested area irrigated rain fed rain fed biofuels 2003 2030 400 800 1200 1600 biofuels irrigation irrigation directly from rain directly from rain Crop water consumption km 3 2000 4000 6000 8000 2003 2030

Water needs for biofuel production, but a word of caution ….. 2500 3800 China 200 2250 Brazil 300 1750 US 3500 4100 India Liters of Irrigation water liters of ET

Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with baseline levels (%)

Source: WA Water Corporation. CLIMATE CHANGE: a big uncertainty INFLOWS INTO PERTH’s STORAGES 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1911 1917 1923 1929 1935 1941 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2004 Total annual inflow (GL) Annual inflow 1911–1974 ( 338 GL ) 1975–1996 ( 177 GL ) 1997–2004 ( 115 GL )

Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley, Victoria Australia For recent climate and current development Last 10 years have seen a 11% and 26% reduction in rainfall and runoff. Translation of this into a developing country scenario could portend catastrophy Temperature

For recent climate and current development

Last 10 years have seen a 11% and 26% reduction in rainfall and runoff.

Translation of this into a developing country scenario could portend catastrophy

Water for Food – 1 liter per calorie 2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water! 500 to 2,000 Liters of Evapotranspiration (ET) 1kg of Grain 5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ET Livestock products (meat, milk) 20 – 500 Liters of Water Daily Household Use 2 – 5 Liters of Water Daily Drinking Water Liters of Water

Sectoral water consumption is increasing due to increased demand Demand will double in the next 40 years

Increasing groundwater usage is a water time bomb

Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI). Green solution with blue impacts! % of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes Water for food and feed today Future water for food, CA scenario Water for biofuels* *Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030 No water scarcity Approaching water scarcity Water scarce 0% 60% 75% 100%

SOLUTIONS?

REVITALIZE IRRIGATION Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species How to avoid? ?

Water storage improves water and food security “ Irrigation” has dominated public investment in agriculture in Asia. Very little water storage has been built in Africa. Irrigated area is only 7% of arable land (3.7% in SSA). Source: World Bank

“ Irrigation” has dominated public investment in agriculture in Asia.

Very little water storage has been built in Africa.

Irrigated area is only 7% of arable land (3.7% in SSA).

WHAT CAN WE DO?

RETHINK STORAGE Renewed interest in storage infrastructure for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan Africa Explore wide range of options: large scale reservoirs, small village ponds, groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil moisture storage), virtual storage (food) Diversity of storage options within a basin Storage creation processes determine who benefits New hydropower schemes and their impacts will be inevitable

Renewed interest in storage infrastructure for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan Africa

Explore wide range of options: large scale reservoirs, small village ponds, groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil moisture storage), virtual storage (food)

Diversity of storage options within a basin

Storage creation processes determine who benefits

New hydropower schemes and their impacts will be inevitable

Turn waste water into a valuable resource Public Health Farmer Laborer Consumer Wastewater irrigation Soil Fodder Ground water Livestock Milk (Meat) Rice Vegetables Short term and Long term health impacts

REFORM WATER GOVERNANCE By demonstrating that evidence based policy and management works best By providing options for policies and institutional reform By improved determination of water rights By better valuation and pricing of water that protects the rights of the poor By improved management systems that are equitable and gender friendly

By demonstrating that evidence based policy and management works best

By providing options for policies and institutional reform

By improved determination of water rights

By better valuation and pricing of water that protects the rights of the poor

By improved management systems that are equitable and gender friendly

Demand continues to rise

THEN WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario Practices like today CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade

CONCLUSIONS No doubt that we have a water crisis Given current projections of food and water demand we can possibly avert future food crises Ensuring availability of water for agriculture is vital, but requires major productivity increases and underpinning water reform The impacts of climate change are still uncertain, but investment in adaptation to CC will also be relevant to the impacts of the other drivers of water scarcity

No doubt that we have a water crisis

Given current projections of food and water demand we can possibly avert future food crises

Ensuring availability of water for agriculture is vital, but requires major productivity increases and underpinning water reform

The impacts of climate change are still uncertain, but investment in adaptation to CC will also be relevant to the impacts of the other drivers of water scarcity