Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm

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Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm

A presentation by Prof. Johan Rockström from Stockholm Resilience Centre

Water Land Ecosystem
High level dialogue
New Delhi

3rd May 2013


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  • Ag trade-offs interesting as it’s a service of high importance for society… Interface of private and common propoerty
  • Vi är alla beroende av fertila jordar. Dock förs näring ut från jordar via vind/vatten-erosion, foder/bete till djur och mat till människor på både landsbygd och städer. För att kompensera för förlusterna och hålla uppe skördarna så använder vi oss i det morderna jordbruket av kemiska gödselmedel. Jordbrukssektorn arbetar med att minska förlusterna från erosion och djurskötsel. Den näring som försvinner med skörden betraktas dock ofta som ”förlorad” från jordbrukssektorns synvinkel. Sanitetssektorn satsar krut på att hindra smittspridning och tänker inte kretslopp. Humangödsel blind fläck i systemet, ett viktigt hållbarhetsgap mellan jordbruks och sanitetssektorn. I utvecklade länder vi äter mycket kött (näringsförlusterna i djurhållningen mkt större), använder mkt konstgödsel, relativt sett kretslopp av humangödsel mindre viktigt på kort sikt för jordbruket, men viktigt för miljöskydd och på lång sikt I utvecklingsländer kan återanvändning det göra stor skillnad – I Afrika, storleksmässigt ca samma mängd näring via djur som människor och som används som konstgödsel på kontinenten.

Transcript

  • 1. Water Land EcosystemHigh level dialogueNew Delhi3rd May 2013Prof. Johan RockströmStockholm Resilience CentreSustainable Intensification ofAgricultural Development:The scientific support for a new paradigm
  • 2. 2 Photos: Mattias Klum3 - 6 - 9A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity
  • 3. GrowingHuman Pressure[20/80 dilemma]Climate change[560/450/400 dilemma]Surprise[99/1 dilemma]Ecosystemdecline[60 % loss dilemma]GlobalFreshwaterResources
  • 4. 13-05-29 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke,Stockholm Resilience CentreHumanity has reached aplanetary saturationpointThe Human ability to do hasvastly outstripped ourability to understandA resilient biosphere thebasis for humendevelopmentFierce urgency of nowA great transformation toglobal sustainabilitynecessary, possible, anddesirable
  • 5. Goal 1: Ending Extreme PovertyGoal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary BoundariesGoal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, Human Rights and the Rule of LawGoal 4: Achieving Food Security and Rural ProsperityGoal 5: Empowering Inclusive, Productive and Resilient CitiesGoal 6: Achieving Health and Wellbeing at all AgesGoal 7: Ensure Effective Learning for Every Child for Life and LivelihoodGoal 8: Curbing Human-Induced Climate ChangeGoal 9: Securing Ecosystem Services and BiodiversityGoal 10: Transforming Governance for Sustainable Development
  • 6. …Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475Global fresh-water useTransgressing safeboundaries
  • 7. Global water resources inthe Anthropocene
  • 8. IPCC AR4 Scenario, Meandeviation (%) 2080-2099,ensemble modelsSocial futures 20507000  > 9000 km3/yr
  • 9. Hansen et al 2012
  • 10. Extreme weatherevents morecommon, withlarger social andeconomicimpacts, coupledto humaninduced climatechange
  • 11. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
  • 12. Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicatehunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009)02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00019601970198019902002201520302050yearkm3010020030019601970198019902002201520302050yearkm3Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 20152002 base lineThe MDG Water Challenge
  • 13. In the search of a new paradigmFor Sustainable IntensificationOf Agriculture for HumanProsperity
  • 14. Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep
  • 15. Green-Blue resources for sustainabledevelopment100%100%60%60%40%40%GLOBALINDIAKENYA
  • 16. Dependence on green and blue water 2000114654108023978715051692907219Comprehensive Assessment 2007
  • 17. Critical transitions or regime shiftsRegime shifts are substantial, persistent, reorganizations inecosystem structure and processesDiverse CoraldominatedAlgaeDominated ReefParklandSavanna Bush steppe
  • 18. Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flowsIrrigation + 1800-2500 km3/yrDeforestation - 3000 km3/yrGordon et al. 2005, 2008Total ET roughly 67000 km3/yrMonsoon collapseSavannisationDry savanna – wetsavanna
  • 19. Moisture feedback critical for rainfall
  • 20. Operationalising aParadigm Shift
  • 21. Elements of a Paradigm Shift• Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture(participation; watershed management; blue-greenintegration)• Nexus approach to land-water-ecosystems; agriculture-energy-water• Landscape and water restoration• Rural water and sanitation – resource reuse• Water and wastewater use• Integated land, water ecoystem management• Institution reform (national water framework)
  • 22. IrrigatedRainfed
  • 23. A triply Green Revolution– 2-3 X production– Social-Ecological Resilience– Green water managementMeeting the Global food challenge
  • 24. Strategies to upgraderainfed agriculture• Increase Crop wateruptake capaciy• Increase Crop waterAvailabilityUpgrading Rainfed agriculture
  • 25. Smallholder Agriculture+ Water =Solutions to RuralPoverty & Hungerwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org
  • 26. Resource Reuse and Recovery:Productive Sanitation35Drip irrigation: urine + waterPhotoB.ComoePhoto:DrRodda.WUnivofKwaZulu-Na
  • 27. Integrated Land and water resource managementPayments for Ecosystem Services< 25%25 - 50%50 - 75%75 - 100%Green Water CreditsTana Basin, Kenya0 50 10025 Km±Decrease in Erosion (%)
  • 28. Improved landmanagement practices inAgriculture has thepotentialt to sequester 0.4– 1.2 Gt C/år(Rathan Lal, Science 2004)TransformingAgriculture fromSource to SinkCoupling land management,fertilisation and water resourcemanagement (e.g., CA, ES, WH)
  • 29. A new framework forSustainable Development
  • 30. Photo Mattias KlumFeeding the world in the Anthropocenewithin a safe operating space of PlanetaryBoundaries requires a major globaltransformation of AgricultureSustainable Intensification for foodsecurity and rural prosperity the onlypossible strategy
  • 31. TitleOur vision:A world in which agriculture thriveswithin vibrant ecosystems, wherecommunities have higher incomes,improved food security and the abilityto continuously improve their lives