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Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity
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Can desalination and clean energy combined help to alleviate global water scarcity

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By Aditya Sood and Vladimir Smakhtin. Presented at the "Water in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Science and Governance. Indicators, Thresholds and Uncertainties of the Global Water System" …

By Aditya Sood and Vladimir Smakhtin. Presented at the "Water in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Science and Governance. Indicators, Thresholds and Uncertainties of the Global Water System" conference in Bonn, Germany May 2013.

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  • 1. CAN DESALINATION AND CLEAN ENERGY COMBINED HELPTO ALLEVIATE GLOBAL WATER SCARCITY?ByAditya Sood and Vladimir SmakhtinInternational Water Management InstituteColombo, Sri Lanka
  • 2. Water Stress Indicator – ratio of water withdrawn to water available afterenvironmental needs are satisfied. Red = tapping into environmental needsAFR - sub-Saharan Africa, MENA - Middle East and North Africa, ECA - Eastern Europe and Central Asia, SAS - South Asia,EAP - East Asia and the Pacific, LAC - Latin America and the Caribbean, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operationand Development, and ROW – Rest of the World Source - IWMIGLOBAL WATER SCARCITY:Withdrawals and Environment
  • 3. sea waterfreshwaterIS DESALINATION THE ANSWER?COASTAL POPULATIONCities with population of one million and greaterCities with population of five million and greaterMore than 40% of the globalpopulation lives with in 100 Kmof the coast
  • 4. DESALINATION TRENDSTop 10 countries (Top 3 – SaudiArabia, USA, UAE);Either where energy is inexpensive, orcountry is wealthy, or no water, or acombinationSource: http://www.desaldata.com/Growth of Cumulative globalcapacity of desalinated water
  • 5. DESALINATION IN A NUTSHELLDesalination – is a process that produces freshwater from sea water orbrackish waterTechnologyThermal – phase change of waterElectromechanical - no phase change;Energy SourceConventional - hydrocarbonsRenewable - solar or wind3 Dominant Technologies*:Multi-stage flash (MSF) distillation – 27% of total desalinated water.Multi-effect distillation (MED) - 8% of total desalinated water.Reverse osmosis (RO) – 60% of total; Membrane based*Source: IEA-ETSAP and IRENA, 2012
  • 6. DESALINATION IS STILL EXPENSIVE!!Cost of Desalination with different energy sources(Source: Karagiannis and Soldatos, 2008)
  • 7. BUT THE COSTS ARE FALLING RAPIDLY
  • 8. THE BIGGEST COST FACTOR IS ENERGY
  • 9. IS RENEWABLE ENERGY THE ANSWER?Cost of energy in 2005 US$Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)Source: 2009 Renewable Energy DataBook, US Department of Energy
  • 10. RENEWABLE ENERGY DESALINATION1 % of current Global CapacitySolarConcentrated Solar Power• Concentrated Solar Power• PhotovoltaicWindThermalbasedDesalinationMembranebasedDesalinationDominant renewable desalination process: RO (62%)Dominant renewable energy source: PV (43%) Source: IEA-ETSAP and IRENA, 2012
  • 11. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENTWorld divided into 7 regionsGlobally, about 33% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coast:AFR: 18% ECA: 17% SAS: 24% MENA: 37%EAP: 38% LAC: 45% OECD: 50%Only consider demand for industrial and domestic use:Willingness to Pay information for these consumers.Using 2050 as the scenario timeframe – compare at what production the price of desalinationcan match willingness to pay.
  • 12. LEARNING CURVES• PROGRESS RATIO• LEARNING RATEln(Ct) = ln(C0) + β * ln(nt)WhereCt is expected cost at nt cumulative production levelC0 is known cost of a product at initial phase (i.e., nt = 1) andhas same unit as Ct;and β is slope parameter obtained by regression
  • 13. LEARNING CURVES FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGYSource: Breyer et al., 2010
  • 14. LEARNING CURVES FOR DESALINATION TECHNOLOGY(WITHOUT ENERGY COMPONENT)19752010All cost values are in 2010 USD Progress Ratio: 0.71Learning Curve: 29%
  • 15. PROJECTING FUTURE PRICE OF WATERBased on 180 cities data collected fromhttp://www.globalwaterintel.com/tariff-survey/
  • 16. PROJECTING FUTURE ENERGY (NON-THERMAL)TRENDS IN DESALINATIONPast TrendsProjected Trends
  • 17. PREDICTING FUTURE COST PROPORTIONS INDESALINATIONProjected WaterTariffMINUSTransportationCost($0.06/m3/100Km)** Zhou and Tol (2004)Total Projected Price of WaterTotal Projected Cost of ElectricityTotal Projected Cost of Rest of the processELECTRIC ENERGYTO TOTAL COSTRATIO
  • 18. INCREASE IN PRODUCITON REQUIRED (IN TERMS OF“DOUBLING”)PV DesalinationRegion 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050AFR 24 21 19 18 7 5 4 4EAP 14 12 10 9 1 - - -ECA 14 12 10 9 4 3 2 1LAC 14 12 11 9 2 1 - -MENA 15 14 12 11 1 < 1 - -OECD 10 10 9 8 - - - -SAS 25 22 20 19 8 6 5 4
  • 19. INCREASE IN PRODUCITON REQUIRED (IN TERMS OFACTUAL CAPACITY)PV(Million MW/year)Desalination Capacity(Million m3/day/year)Region 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050AFR 50851 4170 718 171 1154.6 214.4 72.2 31.8EAP 70 8 2 < 1 9.7 - - -ECA 74 8 2 < 1 159.3 31.9 10.1 3.7LAC 66 8 2 < 1 25.9 3.4 - -MENA 155 21 5 1 17.6 1.7 - -OECD 5 1 1 < 1 - - - -SAS 129657 9218 1491 343 2300.6 393.3 128.8 56.3Current globalproduction: 65 millionm3/dayCurrent globalcumulative production:40 GW. From 1992, grewat a rate of 2.2 GW/year
  • 20. CONCLUSIONS Developed learning curve for desalination technology by separating energy component. Looked at the production levels of desalination and PV technology, at which desalinationcan become a viable option. If energy is not a constraint, desalination will become viable option by 2030 in most of theregions of the world. Even with PV energy, desalination is feasible with minimal growth in most of the region ofthe world. For feasibility in sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, growth of roughly 170 and350 MW/year new production required. This will ease water scarcity in the urban areas and free up water for the environmentalflow regulations, also reduce pressure on agriculture. Environmental issues of disposing off brine and other chemicals used in the process arerelevant and not considered here. These concerns (and cost) need to be addressed.
  • 21. THANK YOU!Acknowledgements:-CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture andFood Security (CCAFS) for providing funds to carry out this researchstudy.-Most of the analysis was carried out using data provided byGlobal Water Intelligence

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