Rethinking water storage for agricultural adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa
Dr. Matthew McCartney¹ and Dr...
Project
Project rationale – water storage as adaptation to CC*
Water Storage Continuum
Approach
Research results – example...
Project 2008-2011
Objective 
Guidance on storage options that ensure optimal adaptation to CC-induced impacts on water
ava...
Project 2008-2011
Blue Nile River basin/ Ethiopia
Volta River basin/ Ghana
Source: IWMI
Partners
Arba Minch University (AM...
Project Rationale
Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for CC adaptation
Little analysis of how CC affects...
Physical Water Storage Continuum
Conceptual overview developed by project participants (IWMI Policy Brief 31)
Project Rationale
Each type has niche in terms of technical feasibility, socioeconomic suitability, externalities and inst...
Project Approach
Blue Nile basin watersheds
Koga – Gumara – Indris
Volta basin watersheds
Vea (Yaragagna) – Saata – Goling...
Basin scale analyses (Blue Nile and Volta)
Climate  - rainfall, temperature, evaporation 
  Historic climate  
  CC scenar...
Climate Modeling (Blue Nile and Volta)
Approaches of downscaling  
Dynamical climate models: CCLM and REMO (both for A1B) ...
Hydrological Modeling (sub-catchments)
Rainfall-Runoff simulation to determine impacts of CC on flow regimes and  groundwa...
Water Resource Modeling
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model at basin level/ of selected sub-catchments
Water accoun...
Site Level Analyses/ Ethiopia
Ethnographic research
 acquisition of storage facilities
 rules & regulations
 land &amp...
Research results – Blue Nile basin 
Blue Nile/ Ethiopia
Existing and planned schemes
Results (no climate change)
Source: M...
Regulated flows
Unregulated flows (downstream of proposed dams and unregulated rivers)
Beles hydropower
 transfer
Gilgel A...
Koga site
Source: Image provided by ZEF, obtained from the Koga irrigation project planning office
Research results – Koga watershed
Evaluating the technical Performance of the Koga and Gomit reservoirs in the Blue Nile u...
Research results – Koga watershed
Tropentag 2010 
poster session: water management
Evaluating the technical Performance of...
Research results – Koga dam & irrigation
Institutional and organizational aspects of irrigation management
Pilot proje...
environ-
mental
technical
economic
social
socio-
economic
Project output  - evaluation metrics
Evaluation metrics to deter...
Project output  - evaluation metrics
Metrics to determine
 The suitability of different options
Metrics to determine
The n...
Social cost scores (emic perspective)
Does the project entail high social costs?   ► No  (score 4-3). ► Considerably high ...
Thank you.
Project leadership: 
Dr. Matthew McCartney
IWMI East African regional office Addis Ababa
m.mccartney@cgiar.org
...
References
Eguavoen, I. (2009) The aquisition of water storage facilities in the Abay River basin, Ethiopia. ZEF Working P...
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Rethinking water storage for agricultural adaptation to climate change in sub Saharan Africa

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Rethinking water storage for agricultural adaptation to climate change in sub Saharan Africa.
Dr. Matthew McCartney and Dr. Irit Eguavoen
Tropentag Conference on International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development
Tropentag ,Zürich, 16 September 2010

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Rethinking water storage for agricultural adaptation to climate change in sub Saharan Africa

  1. 1. Rethinking water storage for agricultural adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa Dr. Matthew McCartney¹ and Dr. IritEguavoen² Tropentag Conference on International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development Tropentag,Zürich, 16 September 2010 Research funded by: 1= International Water Management Institute, 2= ZEF, Center for Development Research, University of Bonn
  2. 2. Project Project rationale – water storage as adaptation to CC* Water Storage Continuum Approach Research results – example Koga watershed Project output – evaluation metrics *CC- Climate Change
  3. 3. Project 2008-2011 Objective Guidance on storage options that ensure optimal adaptation to CC-induced impacts on water availability in SSA* Research Questions How can the need for water storage and the effectiveness and suitability of different storage options be evaluated and compared for different climate scenarios? How can water resource planning and management processes be modified to better account for the uncertainties arising from climate change? Principal output Guidelines on how to build climate change into decision-making processes for the planning and management of agricultural water storage in sub-Saharan Africa *SSA- Sub-Saharan Africa
  4. 4. Project 2008-2011 Blue Nile River basin/ Ethiopia Volta River basin/ Ghana Source: IWMI Partners Arba Minch University (AMU), Ethiopia Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA) Water Research Institute (WRI), Ghana Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), Ghana Center for Development Research (ZEF), Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany Source: ZEF- Centre for Development Research, GLOWA Volta project
  5. 5. Project Rationale Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for CC adaptation Little analysis of how CC affects existing water storage or how to account for CC in the planning and management of new water storage Photo credit: Irit Eguavoen, ZEF
  6. 6. Physical Water Storage Continuum Conceptual overview developed by project participants (IWMI Policy Brief 31)
  7. 7. Project Rationale Each type has niche in terms of technical feasibility, socioeconomic suitability, externalities and institutional requirements Considered within the context of a basin or a sub-basin, they can collectively contribute to overall water and food security CC will affect the function and operation of different storage types, differently Because of uncertainties in CC predictions, storage options need to be able to function under a range of CC scenarios How to build consideration of CC into the planning and management of water storage?
  8. 8. Project Approach Blue Nile basin watersheds Koga – Gumara – Indris Volta basin watersheds Vea (Yaragagna) – Saata – Golinga Source: ZEF- Centre for Development Research, GLOWA Volta project Basin scale analyses Evaluation of climate change impacts on storage at basin scale ► effectiveness Site level analyses Understanding storage at the local (hydrological, economic, socio-political aspects) ► need, effectiveness & suitability Evaluation metrics to determine The need for water storage The effectiveness of different options The suitability of different options
  9. 9. Basin scale analyses (Blue Nile and Volta) Climate - rainfall, temperature, evaporation Historic climate CC scenarios (downscaled to the basins) Current and future storage plus water use in each basin Evaluation of climate change impacts on storage at the basin scale Analysis of sub-catchments/ watersheds P R O J E C T P ERIOD Hydrological model (SWAT/ SWIM) Results: Flow at key locations (sub-catchments) Water resource modeling (WEAP) current water resource development future water resource development Results: Water availability for irrigation/hydropower Effectiveness of existing and planned storage SWAT: Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWIM: Soil and Water Integrated Model WEAP: Water Evaluation and Planning
  10. 10. Climate Modeling (Blue Nile and Volta) Approaches of downscaling Dynamical climate models: CCLM and REMO (both for A1B) + bias correction Statistical climate model: WettReg (for different scenarios and GCMs) Resolution: 0.5° (attempt 10 km but not yet complete) Further regionalization / interpolation to locations of interest Mean annual total precipitation (mm) 1971-2000 Source: Hattermann 2010 CCLM: Climate Limited AreaModellingREMO:Regional Model
  11. 11. Hydrological Modeling (sub-catchments) Rainfall-Runoff simulation to determine impacts of CC on flow regimes and groundwater recharge Daily simulation to deduce impacts on extremes – floods and droughts
  12. 12. Water Resource Modeling Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model at basin level/ of selected sub-catchments Water accounting model (mass balance) – optimizes water use (monthly time-step) Sources of data MoWR: Ministryof Water Resources
  13. 13. Site Level Analyses/ Ethiopia Ethnographic research acquisition of storage facilities rules & regulations land & water rights management bodies resettlement & compensation livelihood change gender aspects Socio-economic surveys 200 hh per watershed identification of water sources cost & benefits of water storage farmers´ perception of storage and climate change (data analysis on-going) Indris Source: ZEF
  14. 14. Research results – Blue Nile basin Blue Nile/ Ethiopia Existing and planned schemes Results (no climate change) Source: McCartney et al. 2009
  15. 15. Regulated flows Unregulated flows (downstream of proposed dams and unregulated rivers) Beles hydropower transfer Gilgel Abay Ribb Gumara Megech 1925 216 244 176 Koga Intermediate flow Gondar town 2180 116 246 Lake pumping schemes Lake Tana Andassa 270 Tis Issat Falls Tis Abay power plants Legend Abay (Blue Nile) Irrigation Scheme Mean annual inflow (Mm3) 116 Dam Withdrawals Return flow Rivers Water Resource Modeling WEAP model set up for Lake Tana sub-basin Source: McCartney et al. 2010
  16. 16. Koga site Source: Image provided by ZEF, obtained from the Koga irrigation project planning office
  17. 17. Research results – Koga watershed Evaluating the technical Performance of the Koga and Gomit reservoirs in the Blue Nile under Existing Conditions and Possible Climate change Fuad Abdo Yassin & Matthew McCartney RRV for Koga and Gomit dams in the Nile Basin: Challenge = need to be able to compute these metrics for a number of storage types within a storage system
  18. 18. Research results – Koga watershed Tropentag 2010 poster session: water management Evaluating the technical Performance of the Koga and Gomit reservoirs in the Blue Nile under Existing Conditions and Possible Climate change FuadAbdoYassin & Matthew McCartney Poster created by FuadAbdoYassin & Matthew McCartney
  19. 19. Research results – Koga dam & irrigation Institutional and organizational aspects of irrigation management Pilot project for farmer-based management - runs at risk to fail Re-organization of farmers in groups – unclear formal/ legal status Training and involvement of farmers – not sufficient Livelihood changes through irrigation agriculture – unexpected workload Conflicts with Christian orthodox authorities – holidays and religious duties How Winners become losers. Relocatees re-establishment of livelihood. Delay in land allocation - long period of non-farming 400 households were relocated to close town Irregularities in compensation payments Change of livelihood - giving up livestock rearing/ urban activities Process of urbanisation, integration in small town settlement Problems with land for houses Importance of social networks New sources of vulnerability (e.g. HIV/ AIDS) Source: Tesfai 2010, Marx 2010
  20. 20. environ- mental technical economic social socio- economic Project output - evaluation metrics Evaluation metrics to determine The need for water storage The effectiveness of different options The suitability of different options Need/ effectiveness Suitability Evaluation metrics should be as far as possible: Objective /quantitative The same for all storage types Applicable across a range of scales Applicable now and under climate change scenarios Transparent in its evaluation approach Easy to use by advisers and policy makers Illustrate policy options Include veto/ exit options, if needed ► score-based approach, possible to visualize
  21. 21. Project output - evaluation metrics Metrics to determine The suitability of different options Metrics to determine The need for water storage The effectiveness of different options technical economic environ- mental Social evaluation criteria Accessibility 2a. Social cost 2b. Social benefits Management/ Maintenance 4. Options to Adapt social Water storage needed? YES. Water storage effective? YES. socio- economic 2a. Social cost - Measures the social cost of the storage system. Topics: relocation/ compensation, social stratification, social and patronage networks, bargaining power, conflict, health The lower the social cost the greater the social value of the storage system.
  22. 22. Social cost scores (emic perspective) Does the project entail high social costs? ► No (score 4-3). ► Considerably high (score 2) ► Continue ► Yes (score 1 - veto) ► Stop because not suitable.
  23. 23. Thank you. Project leadership: Dr. Matthew McCartney IWMI East African regional office Addis Ababa m.mccartney@cgiar.org IWMI project homepage: http://africastorage-cc.iwmi.org/Default.aspx ZEF project homepage: http://www.zef.de/1393.html
  24. 24. References Eguavoen, I. (2009) The aquisition of water storage facilities in the Abay River basin, Ethiopia. ZEF Working Paper 38. Hattermann, Fred (March 2010). Regional climate scenarios for the Blue Nile and Volta. PIK presentation. IWMI (2009) Flexible Water Storage Options and Adaptation to Climate Change. Policy Brief 31 Johnston, R.& McCartney M. (2010) Inventory of Water Storage Options in the Blue Nile and Volta River basins. IWMI Working Paper 140. Marx, S. (2010) Chances and Obstacles in Implementing a large-scale Irrigation Schememanaged by Farmers: Koga Irrigation and Watershed Management Project. Field research report. Bonn. ZEF. McCartney, M.P., Ibrahim, Y., Seleshi, Y. & Awulachew, S.B. (2009) Application of the Water Evaluation and Planning Model (WEAP) to simulate current and future water demand in the Blue Nile. In: Awulachew, S.B., Erkossa,T., Smakhtin, V. & Fernando, A. (Eds) Improved water and land management in the Ethiopian Highlands: Its impact on downstream stakeholders dependent on the Blue Nile: Intermediate Results Dissemination Workshop 5-6 February, 2009. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 78-88. McCartney, M.P., Alemayehu, T., Shiferaw, A. & Awulachew, S. B. (2010) Evaluation of current and future water resources development in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. IWMI Research Report 134. Tesfai, W. (2010) Relocatees re-establishment of livelihood in the Koga irrigations project, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Field research report. Bonn. ZEF.
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