Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Volta River Basin
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Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Volta River Basin

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Presented by Matthew McCartney at the "Water in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Science and Governance. Indicators, Thresholds and Uncertainties of the Global Water System" conference in Bonn,......

Presented by Matthew McCartney at the "Water in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Science and Governance. Indicators, Thresholds and Uncertainties of the Global Water System" conference in Bonn, Germany May 2013

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  • 1. Implications of climate change on existing andplanned water resource development in the VoltaRiver BasinGWSP 2013 Conference21-24 May 2013,Bonn GermanyMatthew McCartney, Gerald Forkour, Aditya Sood,Barnabas Amisigo, Fred Hattermann and Lal MuthuwattaResearch funded by:
  • 2. Background• Water resources in the Volta basin is vital- Hydropower, agriculture, fisheries, livestock, tourism, etc.• Inability to manage rainfall variability is a key constraint toagriculture and economic development.• Increasing pressure on water resource• Plans to build more dams for hydropower and irrigation• CC and its associated uncertainty, may aggravate pressureon water resource
  • 3. Objectives• Simulate water demand for major production activities(existing and planned)• Evaluate the possible implications of CC on waterresources/scheme performance (how do long-termbenefits change?)• Assess impacts of water resources development andCC on river flows
  • 4. ApproachClimate change simulation (CCLM)• temperature• rainfall• potential evapotranspirationHydrological modeling (SWAT)• actual evapotranspiration• groundwater recharge• river flowWater Resources Modeling (WEAP)• irrigation• hydropower• river flow
  • 5. Changing climate (Downscaled A1B)Rainfall(mm)PotentialEvapotranspiration(mm)ActualEvapotranspiration(mm)GroundwaterRecharge (mm)1983-2012 835 2,729 717 762021-2050 757 2,813 668 532071-2100 666 3,323 606 36Basin wide annual averages400500600700800900100011001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Rainfall(mm)2500270029003100330035003700390041001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Pot.Evapotranspiration(mm)0204060801001201401601801980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100GroundwaterRecharge(mm)Rainfall(mm) PE(mm) Groundwater Recharge(mm)
  • 6. Impacts on flow1101001000100001000000 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 11983 -2012 2021-2050 2071-21000500100015002000250030003500400045001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Flow(m3s-1)m3s-1CV1983-2012 1,610 0.342021-2050 1,217 0.492071-2100 885 0.67
  • 7. Development ScenariosA1B scenario run with three development scenarios:• Current Development (baseline)• Intermediate Development: Planned development(feasibility studies)• Full Development: Potential development(Basin Master Plans)
  • 8. Existing and Planned schemesCurrentDev.Inter.Dev.FullDev.Irrigation(ha)30,468 63,253 78,007Hydropower(MW)1,044 1,547 2,032Storage(Bm3)153 180 203NanggodiDapolaKanazoe Dam(75 Mm3)YakalaWayenIrrigation(66.2 Mm3)Bagre Dam(1700 Mm3)Irrigation(2.6 Mm3)NawuniSabariLivestock3.5 Mm3Irrigation(46.4 Mm3)Irrigation(19.2 Mm3)NwokuyLerinordLivestock3.8 Mm3BlackVoltaArlyLivestock3.3 Mm3Hydropower577 Mm3Irrigation27 Mm3Livestock1.3 Mm3PrangIrrigation81 Mm3AkosomboHydropower38,660 Mm3Tono (93 Mm3)Irrigation67 Mm3Vea (16 Mm3)IrrigationLerinord Seouro(277 Mm3)WhiteVoltaLivestock5.5 Mm3Livestock16.3 Mm3Livestock5.5 Mm3Livestock13.4 Mm3Livestock12.5 Mm3Livestock2.6 Mm3EkumdipeDiversionsReservoirKoumangouOtiLowerVoltaNoumbielBamboiPwaluguKompiengaMangoSenchiLivestock4.9 Mm3EstuaryFlow gauging stationBurkina FasoTogoBurkina FasoGhanaTogoBeninGhanaBeninSRs: (0.6 Mm3)SRs: (41.6 Mm3)SRs: (7.7 Mm3)SRs: (5.8 Mm3)SRs: (1.0 Mm3)SRs: (24.3 Mm3)SRs: (12.9 Mm3)SRs: (22.6 Mm3)SRs: (2.1 Mm3)SRs: (6.5 Mm3)SRs: (42.6 Mm3)SRs: (64.9 Mm3)SRs: Small reservoirsZiga Dam(200 Mm3)Subinja dam(135 Mm3)Tanoso dam(125 Mm3)Amate Dam (120 Mm3)
  • 9. Results: Irrigation135001400014500150001550016000165001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Avg.AnnualIrrigationdemand(m3ha-1)04008001,200CurrentdevelopmentIntermediatedevelopmentFull developmentVolumeofwater(MCM)ScenarioIrrigation water delivered Unmet demand04008001,200CurrentdevelopmentIntermediatedevelopmentFull developmentVolumeofwater(MCM)ScenarioIrrigation water delivered Unmet demand04008001,200CurrentdevelopmentIntermediatedevelopmentFull developmentVolumeofwater(MCM)ScenarioIrrigation water delivered Unmet demand1983-20122012-20502071-2100
  • 10. Results: HydropowerCurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFullDevelopment1983-2012 4,678 6,975 8,4672021-2050 3,159 4,779 5,6732071-2100 1,569 2,599 2,7010500010000150002000025000300001983 1998 2013 2028 2043 2058 2073 2088GeneratedElectricity(GWhy-1)Full development Intermediate development Current development
  • 11. Conclusion• The exact impact of CC on water resources of theVolta basin is still uncertain• Mid-range CC is likely to impact the performance ofplanned irrigation and hydropower schemessignificantly by the end of the 21stcentury.• Fulfilling irrigation demand and meeting hydropowerpotential production will be increasingly difficult.Prospects for development and economic growth inGhana could be hindered by CC• Adaptation to climate change and development areclearly linked and need to be considered together.• In comparison to the past, planning of water storageneeds to be much more systematic and integratedacross a range of levels and scales
  • 12. Thank you