Karkheh basin focal project, synthesis of approach, findings and lessons

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Karkheh Basin Focal Project: Synthesis of approach, findings and lessons. Poolad Karimi on behalf of the BFP1 team 2nd International Forum on Water & Food Addis Ababa, Ethiopia November 2008

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  • Hawr Al Azim is also another important issue being internationally observed! Because of the remaining of Mesopotamia marshland. However plans like Karkheh Dam and water export to Kuwait can affect this. Also Iraq did not helped the plan of restoration during Saddam Hussein because of draining up the marshland for security! This area is also a mine polluted and also oil –and gas rich which makes it even more important!
  • Based on secondary data analysis, average sub-cathment level Wheat yield ranges from 0.3-1.5 tons/ha (rainfed) to 2- 4.4 tons/ha (irrigated) across Karkheh in 2003. Maize yield shows even higher variability and is between 5-11.5 tons/ha for the same period. This variation is largely related to water availability and fertilizer use.
  • 1. For both rainfed and irrigated areas, better and increased use of inputs. 2. For irrigated areas, better targeted irrigation applications. 3. For rainfed areas, exploring means of additional water application wherever possible, though considering possible trade-offs with downstream areas. 4. While opportunities of improving productivity exist in both the upper and lower Karkheh, the upper basin appears to be most promising for productivity improvement potential.
  • Karkheh basin focal project, synthesis of approach, findings and lessons

    1. 1. Karkheh Basin Focal Project: Synthesis of approach, findings and lessons Poolad Karimi on behalf of the BFP 1 team 2 nd International Forum on Water & Food Addis Ababa, Ethiopia November 2008 BFP 1- Basin Focal Project
    2. 2. Source: IWMI,2008
    3. 3. Work Package 2 Water Availability
    4. 4. WP 2-Approach <ul><li>Synthesis studies </li></ul><ul><li>Time series meteorological and hydrological data collection from secondary sources/relevant ministries </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of information/ data gaps and filling </li></ul><ul><li>Quick understanding of hydrology and water balance, a simple spreadsheet water account applied with help of Mac Kirby </li></ul><ul><li>Detailed hydrological analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessment of the spatial variability in land use classification, precipitation and actual evapotranspiration using surface energy balance model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time series analysis of stream flow mainly using Flow Duration Curves (FDC) approach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Detailed sub-catchment level water balance analysis using HBV and SWAT 1 models </li></ul></ul>SWAT 1 : Soil Water Assessment Tool
    5. 5. Spatial distribution of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (2002-3) Rainfall distribution in the Basin (2002-3) Actual evapotranspiration in the Basin (2002-3) Source: Lal Muthuwatta, IWMI
    6. 6. Percentage distribution of ET a from different land use classes (year 2002-03, summary of SEBS results) (a) Upper Karkheh (b) Lower Karkheh Source: Lal Muthuwatta, IWMI
    7. 7. WP 2 Findings <ul><li>Scarcity and Competing Demands Meeting the competing water demands is emerging as the key challenge in Karkheh mainly because of increasing allocations for irrigation </li></ul><ul><li>Groundwater Overdraft Rapidly increasing reliance on groundwater use for agriculture, especially in upper Karkheh. Groundwater withdrawals have already exceeded the safe limits in Gamasiab and Gharsu sub-basins and pose a threat to agricultural sustainability. </li></ul><ul><li>High Variability in ET 1 Remote sensing analysis showed high inter- and intra-subcatchment level variability in evapotranspiration which is mainly attributed to fragmented and diverse land uses in Karkheh-possible opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Flow Variability and Planning FDC 2 analysis reveals that planning on the basis of mean annual surface water availability could only provide a supply security in the range of 35-50%. There is a need to incorporate the natural variability of surface water availability in water resources development and allocation strategies, particularly for low flow years when meeting the competing water demands becomes more difficult. </li></ul>ET 1: Evapotranspiration FDC 2: Flow Duration Curve
    8. 8. Hawr Al Azim Swamp Devolution Year 1973-76 Year 2000 7,600 Km2 of primary wetlands areas disappeared Source: UNEP, 2001
    9. 9. Work Package 3: Water Productivity
    10. 10. WP 3 - Approach <ul><li>1. Synthesis study </li></ul><ul><li>2a. Secondary data collection (district) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop production, Livestock production, Forest production, Prices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2b. Remote sensing based analysis </li></ul><ul><li> Land use classification, Yield estimation for major crops, RS determined Et (surface energy balance), RS interpolated yield </li></ul><ul><li>3. Farm Survey </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sample survey, all sub-basins in Karkheh </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small, medium, large farmers; rainfed, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>irrigated and mixed farms. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>data on factors of production </li></ul></ul>RS: Remote Sensing Et: Evapotranspiration
    11. 11. Source: IWMI
    12. 12. A paper based on Water Productivity is submitted for BPF Special Session, 13 IWRA World Water Congress at Montpellier, France – September 2008. Source: IWMI
    13. 13. WP 3 Findings <ul><li>Likely substantial room for water productivity through changed practices. Studies done for the project found that achievable increases in water productivity through reduced soil moisture loss and more efficient irrigation application could reduce irrigation requirements by 60 million m 3 for the entire basin. </li></ul><ul><li>Likely substantial room for water productivity increase through reallocation , though our models not sufficient for analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Importance of Livestock (fish, others?) </li></ul>
    14. 14. Work Package 1 Poverty
    15. 15. WP 1-Approach <ul><li>Synthesis study </li></ul><ul><li>Use Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for Iran covering the last 2 decades and calculate urban and rural poverty lines for Iran </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We were lucky it existed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Re-categorize data to perform analysis on the Karkheh and its sub-basins </li></ul>
    16. 16. WP 1 Findings <ul><li>Poverty in Iran and the Karkheh has dropped over the last 20 years, particularly in rural areas. </li></ul><ul><li>The Karkheh basin is less poor than is Iran as a whole. </li></ul><ul><li>Rural areas of the Karkheh are less poor than urban, when adjusted for differing costs of living </li></ul><ul><li>The poorest rural area of the Karkheh is the lower reach- based on 6 sub-basin breakdown </li></ul>
    17. 17. Work Package 4 Institutional Analysis
    18. 18. WP 4- Approach <ul><li>Examine the history of the basin-in terms of water use as well as the policy environment in which that use changed. </li></ul><ul><li>Gain an understanding of the formal institutions directly involved in the water sector within the Karkheh. </li></ul><ul><li>Look at those institutions within Iran in general and the Karkheh in particular which are directly related to the alleviation of poverty . </li></ul><ul><li>Look at some of the broader policy issues within Iran which are likely to influence both water use and poverty within the Karkheh. </li></ul>
    19. 19. WP 4 Findings <ul><li>Basin has gone through a series of phases since 1900, the most recent of which has put substantial emphasis on wheat production, not water productivity. Questions of sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>“ Standard” set of partially overlapping water management institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Large set of poverty alleviation institutions </li></ul>
    20. 20. 4) Broader issues <ul><li>Fall of Shah, conflict with US/West and Iran-Iraq war made food self-sufficiency a national priority </li></ul><ul><li>Ongoing wars on two borders and nuclear conflict with west given continued reason for policy </li></ul><ul><li>Result is use of water for low productivity grains that could be imported </li></ul><ul><li>Pricing and subsidy system that benefits mostly the urban sector and encourages waste-Iran now one of largest agricultural importers </li></ul><ul><li>Implicit subsidy on fuel equal to 12% of GDP-targeted redistribution of about ½ would eliminate poverty </li></ul>
    21. 21. Work Package 5 Water, Poverty and Productivity Linkages (Analysis of Interventions)
    22. 22. PODIUMSim: 2025 Horizon <ul><li>Three scenarios are developed: </li></ul><ul><li>1- Wheat Self-Sufficiency </li></ul><ul><li>2- “Sustainable” (environmental focus) </li></ul><ul><li>3- “Best Case” Scenario </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on tradeoffs and social optimums </li></ul></ul>(Food & Water Demand and Supply) Source: Sara Marjanizadeh. 2008. Developing a “Best Case Scenario” for Karkheh River Basin Management (2025 Horizon); a Case Study from Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences of Vienna (BOKU) (March 2008). 185p
    23. 23. Source: IWMI
    24. 24. WP 5 Findings <ul><li>No question that increase in water use has allowed expansion of area and increase in yields </li></ul><ul><li>But now no direct connection between production and rural poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Probably greater connection between production and urban poverty and/or national food security goals-which may be in opposition to WP maximization </li></ul>
    25. 25. Source: IWMI
    26. 26. <ul><li>the use of non-agricultural water measures is likely to be a more effective solution to remaining rural poverty in the Karkheh basin and Iran. </li></ul><ul><li>In the short to medium term , agricultural water policy should focus on improvements in physical water productivity so as to improve the use scarce water resources for given national food security priorities. Promising options include: </li></ul><ul><li>In the longer term , shift towards economic water productivity by moving water away from lower productivity grain production and towards higher value agricultural and other activities including hydropower generation and urban uses. </li></ul>Karkheh Recommendations
    27. 27. <ul><li>A compromise between food production, environmental goals and equity is possible. </li></ul><ul><li>Coupled with, for example, improved irrigation management, a further decline of water resources because of increased food demand is not inevitable. </li></ul>
    28. 28. High Priority CP Research <ul><li>What makes basin results comparable or not? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agro-ecosystem similarity? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic similarity? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political similarity? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The answer may change for given basins over time. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What are the national and global water impacts of food self-sufficiency policies, such as those caused by food embargo threats? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>especially applicable to the arid and generally water scarce states of the Middle East/North Africa. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not unreasonable to hypothesize that water productivity gains from policy change in this arena could be as large or larger than those possible through technical intervention. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Is there a general framework to determine when and where (both within and across countries/basins) water is a cost effective poverty alleviation tool? </li></ul><ul><li>How to better consider surface/groundwater interaction and implement effective groundwater policy? </li></ul><ul><li>How best to capture livestock, fisheries, forestry and possibly other agricultural systems? How to easily move from average to marginal water productivity calculations for use in decision making? </li></ul>
    29. 29. Related Publications <ul><li>Mobin Ahmad et. al, 2009, Karkheh BasinFocal Project Report, Unpublished </li></ul><ul><li>Marjanizadeh,Sarah. 2008. Developing a “Best Case Scenario” for Karkheh River Basin Management (2025 Horizon); a Case Study from Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences of Vienna (BOKU) (March 2008). 185p </li></ul><ul><li>Marjanizadeh, S., Qureshi, A.S., Turral, H., Talebzadeh, P. 2009. From Mesopotamia to the thirdmillennium: the historical trajectory of water development and use in the Karkheh RiverBasin, Iran. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 51p. (IWMI Working Paper 135), Forthcoming </li></ul><ul><li>Ahmad MD, Islam A, Masih I, Lal M, Karimi P, Turral H. 2008. Mapping basin level water productivity using remote sensing and secondary data In Karkheh river basin Iran. Paper presented at the 13th IWRA World Water Congress on Global Changes and Water Resources, &quot;Confronting the expanding and diversifying pressures&quot;, Montpellier, France, 1-4 September 2008. 13p. </li></ul><ul><li>2008. Water productivity mapping to identify opportunities to improve agricultural water management in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. In Humphreys, E.; Bayot, R. S.; van Brakel, M.; Gichuki, F.; Svendsen, M.; Wester, P.; Huber-Lee, A.; Cook, S. Douthwaite, B.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Johnson, N.; Nguyen-Khoa, Sophie; Vidal, A.; MacIntyre, I.; MacIntyre, R. (Eds.). Fighting poverty through sustainable water use: proceedings of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10-14 November 2008. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Vol.I. Keynotes; Cross-cutting topics. pp.119-122. ISBN 978-92-990053-0-9 </li></ul><ul><li>Masih I, Ahmad MD, Turral H, Uhlenbrook S, Karimi P. 2008. Understanding hydrologic variability for better surface water allocations in Karkheh Basin Iran. Paper presented at the 13th IWRA World Water Congress on Global Changes and Water Resources, &quot;Confronting the expanding and diversifying pressures&quot;, Montpellier, France, 1-4 September 2008. 15p. Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Ahmad MD, Maskey S. 2008. Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: a case study from Karkheh river basin, Iran. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-00226, 2008 EGU General Assembly 2008. Poster presentation at EGU General Assembly meetings, Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008. </li></ul>
    30. 30. Related Publications <ul><li>Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Ahmad, MD, Maskey S. 2008. Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: a case study from Karkheh river basin, Iran. Presentation at the Boussinesq Center Workshop on Hydrologic science for an ever changing world: search for new hydrologic concepts, theories, models and practices, held on June 23-25, 2008, at Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Available online at: http://www.boussinesqcenter.nl/act_masterclass_newtheorie.htm </li></ul><ul><li>Masih, I., M.D. Ahmad, S. Uhlenbrook, H. Turral, P. Karimi 2008. Overview of streamflow variability and water accounts for the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. In Humphreys, E.; Bayot, R. S.; van Brakel, M.; Gichuki, F.; Svendsen, M.; Wester, P.; Huber-Lee, A.; Cook, S. Douthwaite, B.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Johnson, N.; Nguyen-Khoa, Sophie; Vidal, A.; MacIntyre, I.; MacIntyre, R. (Eds.). Fighting poverty through sustainable water use: proceedings of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10-14 November 2008. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Vol.III. Water benefits sharing for poverty alleviation and conflict management; Drivers and processes of change. pp.32-37. ISBN 978-92-990053-2-3 </li></ul><ul><li>Muthuwatta, L.P., M.D. Ahmad, M.G. Bos, T.H.M. Rientjes 2008. Estimating the spatial variability of water consumption in the karkeh river basin, Iran using MODIS data. In: ACRS 2008 : proceedings of the 29th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing, 10-14 November 2008, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Colombo : Survey Department of Sri Lanka, Asian Association on Remote sensing, 2008. 6p. </li></ul><ul><li>Muthuwatta, L.P., M.D. Ahmad, M.G. Bos, T.H.M. Rientjes 2008. Surface energy balance modeling to track water consumption by heterogeneous land uses in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. In Humphreys, E.; Bayot, R. S.; van Brakel, M.; Gichuki, F.; Svendsen, M.; Wester, P.; Huber-Lee, A.; Cook, S. Douthwaite, B.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Johnson, N.; Nguyen-Khoa, Sophie; Vidal, A.; MacIntyre, I.; MacIntyre, R. (Eds.). Fighting poverty through sustainable water use: proceedings of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10-14 November 2008. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Vol.I. Keynotes; Cross-cutting topics. pp.101-104. ISBN 978-92-990053-0-9. </li></ul><ul><li>Muthuwatta, L.P., M.J. Booiji, T.H.M. Rientjes, M.G. Bos, A.S.M. Gieske, M.D. Ahmad 2009. Calibration of a semi-distributed hydrological model using discharge and remote sensing data. In Yilmaz, K. K.; Yucel, I.; Gupta, H. V.; Wagener, T.; Yang, D.; Savenije, H.; Neale, C.; Kunstmann, H.; Pomeroy, J. (Eds.). New Approaches to Hydrological Prediction in Data Sparse Regions: proceedings of Symposium HS.2 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH), Hyderabad, India, 6–12 September 2009. Wallingford, UK: International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). 7p. (IAHS Publication 333). </li></ul>
    31. 31. Related Publications <ul><li>Masih I, Uhelnbrook S, Maskey S, Ahmad MD, A Islam. 2008. Estimating ungauged stream flows based on model regionalization: Examples from the mountainous, semi-arid Karkheh river basin, Iran. In Brhuthans J.; Kovar, K.; Hrkal, Z. (Eds.). Key note paper for HydroPredict'2008 Conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology, and Water Resources Management: Using Data and Models to Benefit Society 15-18 September 2008, Prague, Czech Republic. pp 7-10. </li></ul><ul><li>Ahmad, M.D., A. Islam, L.P. Muthuwatta, P. Karimi, H. Turral 2009. Mapping basin level water productivity using remote sensing and secondary data in Karkheh river basin Iran. Special Issue: Water, food and livelihoods in river basins. Water International 34(1): 119-133. </li></ul><ul><li>Assadzadeh, Ahmad. Submitted. Poverty in the Karkheh Basin, Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, Scientific and Research Quarterly Journal of the Agricultural Planning and Economics Research Institute, Tehran, Iran. </li></ul><ul><li>Gamage, M.S.D.N; Ahmad MD; Karimi P. 2007. Estimating cropped area and yield using time series of MODIS imagery based vegetation index in Gamasiab Sub-Basin of Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Sri Lankan Journal of Geo-Informatics, 4: 39-55. </li></ul><ul><li>Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Maskey S., Ahmad MD. forthcoming. Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: A case study from the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran. Journal of Hydrology. </li></ul><ul><li>Masih, I, M.D. Ahmad, H. Turral, S. Uhlenbrook, P. Karimi 2009. Analysing streamflow variability and water allocation for sustainable management of water resources in the Karkheh river basin, Iran. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 34:329-340. </li></ul><ul><li>Masih, I., S. Uhlenbrook, S. Maskey, V. Smakhtin 2010. Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the Zagros mountains, Iran. Climatic Change. 22p. Published online: 16 Janurary 2010. DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9793-x. </li></ul><ul><li>Muthuwatta LP, Ahmad MD, Bos MG., Rientjes T.H.M. 2010. Assessment of water availability and consumption in the Karkheh river basin Iran using remote sensing and geo-statistic. Water Resources Management 24(3):459-484 </li></ul>
    32. 32. Thanks For more information visit: www.iwmi.org www.waterandfood.org N.B. This is not a form of technical output. Data and figures shown are subject to change.
    33. 33. Key suggestions for new BFPs <ul><li>Do quick assessments/reports on key issues </li></ul><ul><li>Take an historic perspective to understand how things got to the current state </li></ul><ul><li>Take a broad view of policy and its effects on agriculture and water use </li></ul><ul><li>Make sure any water productivity estimates are inclusive, e.g. livestock-maintain difference between average and marginal </li></ul><ul><li>Think simultaneously about water as a means for overall economic growth, reducer of poverty in general, and reducer of poverty in the agricultural sector and the tradeoffs between the three </li></ul><ul><li>Put another way, don’t force the water poverty issue but think about water as a means for additional poverty alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>MAKE THE PROJECT A TEAM EFFORT WITH EACH PACKAGE LEADER IS INVOLVED IN EVERY WORK PACKAGE </li></ul>

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