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How much modelling is enough
 

How much modelling is enough

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By Robyn Johnston and Vladimir Smakhtin. Presented at the "Water in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Science and Governance. Indicators, Thresholds and Uncertainties of the Global Water System" ...

By Robyn Johnston and Vladimir Smakhtin. Presented at the "Water in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Science and Governance. Indicators, Thresholds and Uncertainties of the Global Water System" conference in Bonn, Germany May 2013

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  • Authors estimates based on annual reports and other grey sources. Minimum estimates, difficult to separate. DSF – Decision support framework. IBM (Indus Basin Model, R – Revised)
  • Water Utilisationprogra, funded by FINnns (acronyms – model names). Mike BasinVRSAP – operational in VN. Others are not operational, exept flood forecasting. Much of this work has not been used by national gov as for transboundary negotiationsThere is a difference in scale / aims: MRC has to know what flows through boundaries, VN needs to know stages to operate sluice gates. EtcCompilation of the data for Mekong has been useful more than modelingThe strength of the effort was in understanding of where water flows- not much modelling but compilation
  • No need to improve hydrology modeling, it is OK. For Basin planning, MRC suite was good. Finns were better for environmental impacts, MIKE would be better in looking at the effect of individual dams and CC impacts
  • NBI suites similar to MRC. Sub-basin models – national – for operational use. Flow data after 2000 not available.
  • Data is a constraint and did not improve since Sutcliff and Parks
  • International Flood Assessment System?Indus Basin Model (or R- Revised)
  • May be advantage to refine models in Indus, unlike Mekong. ET map, SimIdus consortium structiure (universities and others)
  • Mentioned only 3 basins, but in principle the problem of uncoordinated modelling is more or less the same in all WLE basins
  • All these are valid reasons; all can also just be excusesEasier said then done. Invite for the dialog around this

How much modelling is enough How much modelling is enough Presentation Transcript

  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldHOW MUCH MODELLING IS ENOUGH?Robyn Johnston and Vladimir SmakhtinInternational Water Management Institute (IWMI)Colombo, Sri Lanka
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldOBJECTIVES• For representative large river basins:– Review the types and accessibility of basin-scale models;– Identify overlaps and duplicate investments;– Establish gaps in knowledge;• Examine possibilities for improved coordination and effectiveness ofinvestments in basin model development and application globally
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldRIVER BASIN MODELS• Part of development programs for major transboundary river basins,funded by the World Bank.• Main uses:– national water resources planning and management– transboundary water resources negotiation and coordination– flood forecasting and mitigation• Historical and on-going investments:– Mekong – MRC DSF ~ $20 mill since 2000– Nile – NBI DSF ~ $25 mill since 1994– Indus - WAPDA IBM / IBMR - 30 years of development; $14 mill over 2008–2014• In addition, since 2000 - countless numbers of sub-basin modelingstudies by national agencies, academia and international partners
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldMEKONG• Diversity– four major model suites:• MRC DSF : SWAT, IQQM and iSIS;• U. Washington: VIC;• MIKE suite (ADB, JICA);• WUP-FIN suite (EIA, VMod)– >18 different models reported, including 7 hydrodynamic models forMekong delta and floodplain– Extensive modeling in Vietnam (VRSAP) and Thailand• Objectives:– Transboundary cooperation– Exploration of basin planning scenarios and hydropower impacts– Flood forecasting and management• Access– MRC provides access to model setup info through online toolbox– Software for DSF is proprietary– Regional hydro-meteorological database available
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldMEKONG• Achievements– Shared understanding of “big picture” hydrology of the basin– Impact on the debate – e.g. Chinese dams vs dams in LowMekong; withdrawals upstream of Viet Nam delta• Issues– Incremental improvements in accuracy of hydrology will have littleimpact on decisions. Issues of mainstream hydropower –economics and fish migration – dominate– Existing basin model suites are appropriate for differentapplications (Adamson, 2006)– National modeling objectives differ from basin-wide
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldNILE• Diversity– 4 main Basin scale model suites (with NBI), >12 models,– developed by various international organizations / initiatives – WB,UNESCO-IHE, HydroMet, TecoNile, FAONile / Georgia Tech,FRIEND/Nile; academia– Sub-basin models with national agencies, e.g.• Egypt - NRI / HRI - suite of 9 different models for flood forecasting,dam operations, canal management• Ethiopia – multiple models for Blue Nile sub-basin (>20 SWATapplications alone)• Objective• promote transboundary cooperation and negotiations• National objectives in Ethiopia and Egypt – more operational• Access– Political constraints to sharing data and results throughout the Basin– No public release of flow data from Egypt since ~ 2000– Can access NBI DST by arrangement
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldNILE• Achievements– Reasonable understanding of basin-scale dynamics and implications ofdevelopment options– Detailed models developed for operational use at national level couldfeed into basin-scale assessments• Issues– Political constraints to collaboration– Plethora of international organizations working in Nile Basin, nocoordination– Data availability and sharing hardly improved over 3 decades
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldINDUSDiversity• Agro-hydrological Integrated Basin optimization Model(IBM / IBMR) - WAPDA and WB• Rainfall-runoff models for ungauged flows and potentialfuture changes – SWAT, UBC, HBV, SWIM, DHSVM• Groundwater models (salinity and waterlogging in IndusBasin Irrigation System – IBIS) – MODFLOW, FEFLOW• Operational flood forecasting - Delft-FEWS, IFASObjectives• Planning and operation of IBIS including large groundwatercomponent• Flood forecasting and mitigation• Planning and operating hydropower development
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldINDUS• Achievements– Use of models for planning and management of the IBIS– Good resident national modeling capacity (e.g. SimIndus –technical consortium in Pakistan)• Issues– A trans-boundary basin, with no TB management; IBMR is aPakistan model for planning and management of IBIS– Limited operational use still – expertise mainly in academia;– Lack of data for operational use (canal flows etc) and overall -upstream
  • RIVER BASINS AND WLE PROGRAMRRRIrrigationRainfedBasinsRRRIrrigationRainfedInformationNileVolta, NigerAndesZambezi, LimpopoMekongGangesIndusAmu DaryaSyr DaryaTigris, Euphrates
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldCAN MODELING EFFORT BE BETTER MANAGED?Modeling is a learning process• We can try and speed it up by building on previous work: share your model files through yourinstitutional web sitesLarge diversity of models (or repetition?)• Need to have a clear set of basin development objectives that models can support• Increasing use of standard software (SWAT, MODFLOW, WEAP, MIKE), where appropriate. Itshould improve comparison and coordination but only if model assumptions / input data aresharedExisting basin models are not always well verified / uncertainty is high• Focus more on improving data availability and sharing for input / calibration / validation than ondeveloping / applying models with the same data limitationsPolitical sensitivities make sharing national data and models for transboundary Basins difficult• Invest into new advanced data acquisition methods that spread across national / sub-nationalboundaries. Role for emerging international “decades” and initiativesExisting models data /results for major basins are not always published / available• Develop model inventory for each major basin for free access by modeling community
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldIWMI MODELING INVENTORY• Collection of all setup files for about 30 recent modeling projects (SWAT, WEAP, VIC,MODFLOW for Volta, Nile, Mekong, Ganges and others)• Soon will be online and continuously updated• Can be replicated for every major river basin at the appropriate regional hubs
  • www.iwmi.orgWater for a food-secure worldTHANK YOUWater resources modeling efforts in world major river basin need to be better coordinated