Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue Nile

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Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue NileWater-Food-Energy Nexus in the context of groundwater use in India: Experience from three Indian …

Implications of climate change on existing and planned water resource development in the Upper Blue NileWater-Food-Energy Nexus in the context of groundwater use in India: Experience from three Indian States

A presentation by Matthew McCartney, Michael Girma and Solomon Demissie

Presented at the AFRICA2013 conference in Addia Ababa, Ethiopia, 16-18 April 2013.

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  • 1. Implications of climate change on existingand planned water resource development inthe Upper Blue NileAFRICA 2013 Conference: 16-18 April 2013Matthew McCartney, Michael Girma and Solomon Demissie
  • 2. • Simulate water demand for major production activities(existing and planned)• Evaluate the possible implications of CC on waterresources/scheme performance (how do long-termbenefits change?)• Assess impacts of water resources development andCC on river flowsObjectives
  • 3. ModelingClimate change simulation (CCLM)• temperature• rainfall• potential evapotranspirationHydrological modeling (SWAT)• actual evapotranspiration• groundwater recharge• river flowWater Resources Modeling (WEAP)• irrigation• hydropower• river flow
  • 4. Application of WEAP• Water accounting model (mass balance) –simulates water use across a range ofdemands• Data from:– MoWR/EEPCo/NMA– Basin Master Plans– Irrigation efficiency studies– New scheme feasibility studies• Simulation 1983-2100 (monthly time step)
  • 5. Development ScenariosA1B scenario run with three development scenarios:• Current Development (baseline)• Intermediate Development: Planned development(feasibility studies)• Full Development: Potential development(Basin Master Plans)
  • 6. Schematic of development scenariosCurrentdevelopmentIntermediatedevelopmentFullDevelopment
  • 7. Existing and Planned schemesCurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFullDevelopmentIrrigation (ha) 15,345 272,018 364,355Hydropower (MW) 218 2,194 10,276Storage (Bm3) 11.6 70.2 167
  • 8. Hydrological Impacts-60-40-200201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18%changeinannualflowSub-BasinA1B scenario:changes inflow2021-2050 2071-2100-40-30-20-10010201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18%changeinannualflowSub-BasinA1B scenario: changes in groundwater recharge2021-2050 2071-2100
  • 9. Climate Impacts (A1B scenario)1920212223242526271980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Temperature(oC)Basin: annual temperature (oC)6008001000120014001600180020001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Rainfall(mm)Basin: annual rainfall12001250130013501400145015001550160016501980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Potentialevapotranspiration(mm)Basin: potential evapotranspirationImpacts greatest in thesecond half of the century
  • 10. Climate impacts summaryAverage annualtemperature (oC)Average annualrainfall (mm)Potential Evapotranspiration(mm)1983-2102 20.9 1,310 1,3632021-2050 21.9 1,290 1,4052071-2100 24.9 1,110 1,535
  • 11. Irrigation (1)6,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,0001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100AverageannualirrigationRequirment(m3ha-1)Basinaverage irrigationrequirement1983-2012: 8,2442021-2050: 8,4912071-2100: 9,72605001,0001,5002,000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecIrrigationdemand(m3ha-1)Average monthly requirement1983-2012 2021-2050 2071-2100
  • 12. Irrigation (2)1983-20122021-20502071-21000500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull developmentMm3Irrigation water delivered Unmet demand0500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull developmentMm3Irrigation water delivered Unmet demand0500100015002000250030003500CurrentDevelopmentIntermediateDevelopmentFull developmentMm3Irrigation water delivered Unmet demand
  • 13. Hydropower (1)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00019831989199520012007201320192025203120372043204920552061206720732079208520912097HydrolectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)Current development Intermediate Development Full Development
  • 14. Hydropower (2)Current Development Intermediate Development Full DevelopmentElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotentialElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotentialElectricityGenerated(GWhy-1)% ofpotential1983-2012 1,397 100 12,814 98 40,803 912021-2050 1,390 100 12,962 99 44,245 982071-2100 1,138 82 8,422 64 28,449 63
  • 15. Lake Tana: water levels1,7831,7841,7851,7861,7871980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Waterlevel(masl)Lake Tana: average annual water levelCurrentdevelopment Intermediate Development Full Development
  • 16. Flows02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Flow(m3s-1)Annual flowat KessieCurrent development Intermediate Development Full Development05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Flow(m3s-1) Annual flow at the Ethiopia-SudanborderCurrent development Intermediate Development Full Development
  • 17. Flow Summary (m3s-1)Current Development Intermediate Development Full DevelopmentOutflowTanaKessie Border OutflowTanaKessie Border OutflowTanaKessie Border1983-2012 177 617 1,655 81 522 1,622 87 528 1,5992021-2050 158 659 1,713 61 563 1,678 63 564 1,6832071-2100 45 444 1,327 10 409 1,305 21 421 1,301
  • 18. Conclusions• Combining climate, hydrological and water resourcesmodels provides a useful tool to assess the possiblewater resource implications of CC.• Results indicate:• long time horizon for full effect of climate change(“end of the century“)• considerable spatial variability in hydrologicalimpacts of CC• clear trends but increasing variability in manyhydrological variables• Mid-range climate change is likely to impact theperformance of planned irrigation and hydropowerschemes significantly by the end of the 21st century.
  • 19. Thank you