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Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20
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Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol-CDM AR and H20

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Climate Change and IWMI: …

Climate Change and IWMI:
Global Analysis of
Kyoto Protocol -CDM AR and H20

Robert Zomer
Deborah Bossio
Antonio Trabucco
Oliver Van Straaten

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  • 1. Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol - CDM AR and H20 Robert Zomer Deborah Bossio Antonio Trabucco Oliver Van Straaten
  • 2. Aspects of Climate Change • Local – Wetting or drying – Increased uncertainty in rainfall – Livelihoods and vulnerability – Increased extreme events • Global – Direct climate change impacts on production, farming systems, food security water supply, ecosystems… – International treaties affect land use and indirectly affect water use • New partnerships – Global change research community
  • 3. Global Issue • Various International Treaty Conventions and Agreements are currently in effect: – Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC), Biodiversity Convention, Desertification, etc.. • “Hidden” Water Dimension (water use and supply) of Agreements not necessarily taken into account, and/or treated as ancillary issue.
  • 4. Kyoto Protocol CDM-AR • Kyoto Protocol has been ratified in 2005 – Kyoto calls for mandatory reductions of emissions to 1992 levels for Annex I Parties. – The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows for countries to trade carbon credits for investing in carbon reducing projects in Non-Annex I countries. – One percent of all the required reductions is allowed to be satisfied by “carbon sink” projects, (CDM-AR) • afforestation and reforestation, tree plantations, agroforestry (2008-2012) – This potentially represents billions of dollars flowing into developing countries and development.
  • 5. Global Analysis of CDM-AR impacts on water related issues • Questions: – Where is the land suitable for these CDM-AR projects? • What is there now (current landuse) • What kind of land is it (elevation, slope, NPP, degradation) • Who is there now (population density) – How much land is actually required to meet the CDM-AR cap (1% of total CO2 reductions)? – If those sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on water cycles • Globally, regionally, locally
  • 6. How much land is suitable and where is it?
  • 7. How much land is suitable and where is it? • Suitable land >700 Mha • 46% is in South America • 27% is in SS Africa • More than 75% of suitable lands in Asia are classified as agricultural land use. Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Existing Landuse Type 350 300 250 Barren or Sparsely Vegetated 200 Savanna Mixed Shrubland/Grassland 150 Cropland 100 50 0 South Subsahara South Asia SouthEast East Asia America Africa Asia Region
  • 8. How many people live on that land? Almost all of the biophysically suitable land with low population density is found in Africa and South America Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Population Density 250 200 150 East Asia South-east Asia South Asia Sub-Sahara Africa 100 South America 50 0 0 0 5 10 25 50 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 40 10 20 30 50 75 - 10 10 - - - 1 - - - - - - 6 11 26 > - 1 51 1 1 1 1 30 1 10 20 40 50 75 Population Density
  • 9. What is the potential of CDM AR projects to mitigate land degradation, globally? • Only 2 - 3 % of eligible lands are required to meet the current CDM sink cap – 1.4 Million Sq Km • Globally CDM-AR is a ‘drop in the bucket’ to help address enormous scope of land degradation
  • 10. Hydrological impacts of implementing CDM-AR projects If suitable sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on water cycles •Globally, regionally, locally Tested for methods that could be easily applied at global scale, and as a support tool for feasibility studies associated with local reforestation. A monthly Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water budget is calculated as: SWC is the soil water content EPrec is the effective precipitation ∆SWC = E Pr ec − AET − R AET is the Actual Evapotranspiration R is the Excess Water or Runoff
  • 11. Increase in Vapor Flows (AET) with CDM-AR • Large areas exhibit significant increases in vapor flow • Drier areas, • Semi-arid tropics, • Conversion from grasslands • Conversion from subsistence ag •Significant variation amongst biomes and bioclimatic zones
  • 12. Decrease in Runoff with CDM-AR Low Impact - 20% Moderate Impact - 28% High Impact - 25% Severe Impact - 27% Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Decrease in Runoff (%) 250.00 200.00 150.00 East Asia South-East Asia South Asia SubSahara Africa 100.00 South America 50.00 0.00 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Decrease in Runoff (%) Global Impact: Minimal Locally and Regionally: potentially significant
  • 13. Four Case Studies of Local Impact: • Four Case Study Sites: – Ecuador • Coastal Tropical – Pasture to Mixed Native Agroforestry • Sierras – Community Forestry - Pine Plantation – Bolivia • Amazon - – Small Farm Agroforestry • Sierras - Tunari National Park – Ecological Restoration – Native Species
  • 14. Local Impact: Water Use Change with CDM-AR Project: Precipitation: 900 mm Impact: High Impact (27%) Possible Flood Mitigation Tunari National Park: Bolivia
  • 15. Chapare Case Study – Bolivian Amazon Community Based Agroforestry Annual Precipitation: > 3000 Impact Minimal with 100% Adoption
  • 16. Guamote Study Site - Ecuador Precipitation: 700 mm Impact: Severe Ground Water Decrease
  • 17. Conclusion • H2O Dimension of Multilateral Treaties – Needs to be explicitly articulated • Local Impact of CDM-AR Can Be Significant – Communities, Food Security, Ecosystem • Model results can be applied to optimize planning and mitigate impact • Model can be used to quantify impact of trees in the landscape under range of scenarios
  • 18. Thank You…

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