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Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management - David Molden  - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
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Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management - David Molden - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

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Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management by David Molden - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management by David Molden - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

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    • 1. David Molden International Water Management Institute Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management
    • 2. Presentation
      • Drivers of Water Use
        • Agriculture, Population & Diets, urbanization, energy, politics, poverty, closing basins, water scarcity, climate change
      • Future Water Needs
      • Adaptive Responses
      • Propositions
    • 3. One liter of water produces one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories One liter of water produces one calorie on average
    • 4. Will there be enough water?
      • A question posed to 700 researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.
    • 5. Investing in Irrigation Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species
    • 6.  
    • 7. Urbanization
    • 8. Urbanization
      • Increased demand for water for cities
      • Reallocation from irrigation to cities
      • Cities generate more wastewater – an important source of agricultural supplies
      • Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond to different demands
      • Voting dynamics shift
      • Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment
    • 9. 55
    • 10.  
    • 11.  
    • 12. Water and Energy
    • 13. Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector
    • 14. Water for Biofuels Water use per liter of biofuel production Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water China 3800 2500 India 4100 3500 US 1750 300 Brazil 2250 200
    • 15. Energy in Nepal Hydropower in Nepal: Potential: 42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW
    • 16.
      • River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left
      • Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets
      • Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent
      • Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
      Limits – reached or breached
    • 17. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
    • 18. MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) 840 million malnourished people remaining
    • 19.
      • Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems?
      • No, unless ….
      • We change the way we think and act on water issues.
      Answer from the Comprehensive Assessment –
    • 20. WHAT OF THE FUTURE?
    • 21. Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr) USA projections data 2003 1961 2050 China India 140 20 120 100 40 60 80 World Meat consumption kg/cap/yr
    • 22. How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains
    • 23. Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles by 2050 2050 Water Use – Today and 2050 No Water Productivity Gains Today
    • 24. Water Use – Today and 2050 Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario No Water Productivity Gains CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade 2050
    • 25. Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.
    • 26.
      • Costs 1/3 rd of growth potential
      • Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods
      Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
    • 27. Water storage mitigates variability Source: World Bank But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance Days of storage capacity Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability
    • 28. Policy Agenda – Where is there hope?
    • 29. Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
    • 30. Address Drivers of Change
        • Our policies and actions outside the water sector;
          • Agriculture
          • Trade
          • Response to climate change
          • Diets
          • Energy/biofuels
        • have a profound impact on water resources.
      Photos from Diet for a Small Planet
    • 31. Political Drivers
        • Regional stability and conflicts
        • International agreements
        • Corruption and transparency
        • International goals and objectives
      Challenge: to develop solutions in the context of fragile states, countries in conflict, weak governance arrangements
    • 32. Productivity United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Maize yield (tons/hectare)
    • 33. Increase Water Productivity
      • Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop
        • To reduce future water needs
        • For food production increases
      • Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop
        • For more income, growth
        • Integrated, multiple use systems
    • 34. Adapt yesterday’s irrigation to tomorrow’s needs
      • To reduce rural poverty
      • To improve performance of many systems, particularly in South Asia
      • To keep up with changing food demand
      • To adapt to changes – water scarcity, competition, climate change, energy
      • To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem services, while reducing negative impacts
    • 35.
      • Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited.
      Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies
    • 36. Manage Externalities
            • Deal with negative impacts of water development
            • Ecosystem degradation
            • Negative health impacts
            • Inequitable benefits
            • Loss of biodiversity
    • 37. Propositions
      • Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and management responses.
      • Refocus on agricultural productivity, especially water productivity in light of scarcity. Share benefits.
      • Focus on access to water for the poor through technology and rights, in particular for women and marginalized groups. Upgrading rainfed agriculture has high potential.
      • Reinvent and revitalize irrigation in light of water scarcity and changing societal needs, with a focus on institutional and policy change.
      • Identify and manage externalities brought about by water resources development and management in doing the above.
      Considering local context, increasing demand & competition, complexity & integration, drivers of change, local politics
    • 38. Thank You ! “ Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy

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