David Molden International Water Management Institute Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management

Presentation Drivers of Water Use Agriculture, Population & Diets, urbanization, energy, politics, poverty, closing basins, water scarcity, climate change Future Water Needs Adaptive Responses Propositions

Drivers of Water Use

Agriculture, Population & Diets, urbanization, energy, politics, poverty, closing basins, water scarcity, climate change

Future Water Needs

Adaptive Responses

Propositions

One liter of water produces one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories One liter of water produces one calorie on average

Will there be enough water? A question posed to 700 researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.

A question posed to 700 researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.

Investing in Irrigation Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species

Urbanization

Urbanization Increased demand for water for cities Reallocation from irrigation to cities Cities generate more wastewater – an important source of agricultural supplies Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond to different demands Voting dynamics shift Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment

Increased demand for water for cities

Reallocation from irrigation to cities

Cities generate more wastewater – an important source of agricultural supplies

Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond to different demands

Voting dynamics shift

Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment

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Water and Energy

Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector

Water for Biofuels Water use per liter of biofuel production Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water China 3800 2500 India 4100 3500 US 1750 300 Brazil 2250 200

Energy in Nepal Hydropower in Nepal: Potential: 42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW

River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production Limits – reached or breached

River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left

Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets

Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent

Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production

Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) 840 million malnourished people remaining

Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems? No, unless …. We change the way we think and act on water issues. Answer from the Comprehensive Assessment –

Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems?

No, unless ….

We change the way we think and act on water issues.

WHAT OF THE FUTURE?

Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr) USA projections data 2003 1961 2050 China India 140 20 120 100 40 60 80 World Meat consumption kg/cap/yr

How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains

Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles by 2050 2050 Water Use – Today and 2050 No Water Productivity Gains Today

Water Use – Today and 2050 Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario No Water Productivity Gains CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade 2050

Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.

Costs 1/3 rd of growth potential Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia

Costs 1/3 rd of growth potential

Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods

Water storage mitigates variability Source: World Bank But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance Days of storage capacity Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability

Policy Agenda – Where is there hope?

Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services

Address Drivers of Change Our policies and actions outside the water sector; Agriculture Trade Response to climate change Diets Energy/biofuels have a profound impact on water resources. Photos from Diet for a Small Planet

Our policies and actions outside the water sector;

Agriculture

Trade

Response to climate change

Diets

Energy/biofuels

have a profound impact on water resources.

Political Drivers Regional stability and conflicts International agreements Corruption and transparency International goals and objectives Challenge: to develop solutions in the context of fragile states, countries in conflict, weak governance arrangements

Regional stability and conflicts

International agreements

Corruption and transparency

International goals and objectives

Productivity United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Maize yield (tons/hectare)

Increase Water Productivity Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop To reduce future water needs For food production increases Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop For more income, growth Integrated, multiple use systems

Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop

To reduce future water needs

For food production increases

Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop

For more income, growth

Integrated, multiple use systems

Adapt yesterday’s irrigation to tomorrow’s needs To reduce rural poverty To improve performance of many systems, particularly in South Asia To keep up with changing food demand To adapt to changes – water scarcity, competition, climate change, energy To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem services, while reducing negative impacts

To reduce rural poverty

To improve performance of many systems, particularly in South Asia

To keep up with changing food demand

To adapt to changes – water scarcity, competition, climate change, energy

To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem services, while reducing negative impacts

Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies

Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited.

Manage Externalities Deal with negative impacts of water development Ecosystem degradation Negative health impacts Inequitable benefits Loss of biodiversity

Deal with negative impacts of water development

Ecosystem degradation

Negative health impacts

Inequitable benefits

Loss of biodiversity

Propositions Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and management responses. Refocus on agricultural productivity, especially water productivity in light of scarcity. Share benefits. Focus on access to water for the poor through technology and rights, in particular for women and marginalized groups. Upgrading rainfed agriculture has high potential. Reinvent and revitalize irrigation in light of water scarcity and changing societal needs, with a focus on institutional and policy change. Identify and manage externalities brought about by water resources development and management in doing the above. Considering local context, increasing demand & competition, complexity & integration, drivers of change, local politics

Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and management responses.

Refocus on agricultural productivity, especially water productivity in light of scarcity. Share benefits.

Focus on access to water for the poor through technology and rights, in particular for women and marginalized groups. Upgrading rainfed agriculture has high potential.

Reinvent and revitalize irrigation in light of water scarcity and changing societal needs, with a focus on institutional and policy change.

Identify and manage externalities brought about by water resources development and management in doing the above.

Thank You ! “ Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy