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Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World
 

Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World

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Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World - David Molden, Deputy Director General, International Water Management Institute

Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World - David Molden, Deputy Director General, International Water Management Institute

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  • Changed title. Many will not recognize ‘CC’ as an abbreviation ‘climate change’. Changed ‘landscapes’ to ‘agriculture’. Many in your audience are likely to think ‘lawn care’ when they read ‘landscapes’. Replaced & with ‘and’. Changed point size of last two points to match first four.

Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World Presentation Transcript

  • Agricultural Water Management:  The Key to Food Security in a Changing World
    David Molden
    International Water Management Institute
  • Water Scarcity 2000
    1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
    Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007
  • Drivers of Water Use
    Other Water Pressures
    Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025
    Agriculture – Water fuels production increases
    Population & Diet– food grain production projected to increase by 100% by 2050
    Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land
    Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability – potential yields decline in Africa
  • Limits – Reached or Breached
    River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left
    Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets
    Fisheries– ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent
    Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
  • ASIA: High Numbers of Poor, AFRICA: High Percentage Poor
    1.7M poor, 960M undernourished people (12/2008, FAO)
  • Policy Concerns
    Food self-sufficiency – increase food production to meet growing population needs (need more water)
    Save water from agriculture – to meet needs of growing cities and environment (less water for ag)
    Water to fight poverty (more water)
    IS THERE ENOUGH WATER?
  • Will there be enough water?
  • Will there be enough water?
    More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
    More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
    More calories & more meat, fish, milk
    More food production – need to double grain production by 2050
    More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs double
    Something has to change
    More calories & more meat, fish, milk
    More food production – need to double grain production by 2050
    More water for food – if practices don’t change, double water needs
    This equation doesn’t work – something has to change
  • Water Use – Today and 2050
    Today
    2050
    No Water
    Productivity Gains
    Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
    Without Water Productivity Gains,
    Crop ET doubles by 2050
  • Climate Change
  • Some areas will be wetter, others drier, more rainfall variability, all hotter
    Source: Arnell, 2003.
  • Water Scarcity and Climate Change
    Some areas wetter, some areas drier
    Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.
  • Climate Change, Water, Agriculture3 Critical Concerns
    Glacial Snowmelt – Himalayas, Andes, African Highlands
    Rising Sea Levels - River delta systems
    Mekong, Egypt’s Nile Delta
    Climate Variability – across
    sub-Saharan Africa
  • Water implications of mitigation measures?
    Biofuels
    Afforestation
  • Water Management
    Solutions
    Olivia Molden
  • Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands
    Invest in rainfed agriculture
    Invest in irrigation
    Improve productivity of existing systems
    Expand irrigation
    Promote trade from highly productive to less productive regions
    Manage demand, consume and waste less
  • Consider the Full Range of Agricultural Water Management Options
    Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
  • 1. Water to Fight Poverty –what is potential?
  • Where are the rural poor in SSA ?
    Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty
  • Poverty reduction potential of AWM solutions across livelihood zones
    Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty
  • Who could benefit from Agricultural Water Management Solutions?
    This Project (Gates funded Ag Water Management Solutions):
    65M rural poor livelihoods improved in 15 years
  • 2. Transform water governance
    Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and ecosystem degradation continue - not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings
    Water availability has changed, but our actions have not
    No blueprints - need to craft local solutions
  • Form Coalitions
    Emerging interest of private sector
    Important to trigger policy change
  • 6150
    7,000
    4729
    6,000
    5,000
    3255
    4,000
    2486
    3,000
    1406
    1287
    2,000
    746
    1,000
    43
    4
    0
    China
    Laos
    Brazil
    South
    Africa
    Kenya
    Ethiopia
    North
    Thailand
    America
    Australia
    Water storage mitigates variability
    3. Water Storage – a safeguard against climate variability
    But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater “groundwater banking” and soil moisture.
    And beyond: insurance, local trade
    Cubic meters per capita
    Source: World Bank data from ICOLD
  • MAKING STORAGE “SMARTER” –storage continuum
    ACCESS
    SURFACE
    SUBSURFACE
    Increasing capital costs
    Increasing complexity of management
    Increasing environmental and social cost
    Reservoirs
    large
    small
    Ponds and Tanks
    Boreholes,
    deep /shallow
    wells
    Aquifers
    deep
    shallow
    Soil Moisture
    Natural wetlands
    Increasing resilience
    Increasing resilience
    Dam outlets,
    pumps,
    off-take towers
    Direct,
    Buckets, pumps
    Planting crops
    All of the above
  • 4. Manage Water Demand
    Reducing withdrawals mitigates – half of India’s irrigation is from groundwater requiring pumps
    Put in place innovative incentives, allocation, pricing policies to curtail water demands
    Food waste is water waste
  • 5. Grow more food per unit of water
  • Increase Water Productivity
    Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop
    • Reduces water needs
    Range shows that there is considerable scope for improvement
    • Wheat 500 to 2000 liters/kg
    • Beef 5000 to 20000 liters/kg
    IPCC – crop yields in SSA could decline by 50%, but
    Comprehensive Assessment says could more than double with investment and management
  • Number of publications related to water productivity from 1990 to 2007
    (The result is from Google Scholar search using fixed term “water productivity” )
  • Opportunities in RainfedAgriculture
    Largest opportunities to build resilience and improve water productivity are in rainfed landscapes – low water productivity, high poverty
    Technology
    water harvesting, supplemental irrigation
    Field water conservation to reduce nonproductive evaporation
    Improved nutrients
    Drought resistance varieties
    Expand Policiesto includeupgrading rainfedsystems
  • Asia needs to feed an extra 1.5 billion people by 2050, with food needs projected to double.
    Cannot rely on rainfed alone
    Asia contains 70% of the world’s irrigated area
    Important to do it right for:
    • Climate change
    • Food security
    • Environment
    Large scope to improve
    Performance
    Water productivity variations
  • It won’t be easy
    Adoption rates are low– water productivity not necessarily a farmer concern, markets may not be in place, need to understand political-economy of water useScale effects- Farm water productivity gains can increase basin depletion, not save water
    Need to understand tradeoffsand align incentivesof different actors by a variety of means (economic incentives, allocation)
  • Water Use – Today and 2050
    Today
    No Water
    Productivity Gains
    2050
    CA Scenario
    CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can further reduce water needs
    Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA
  • Summary - Water Agenda
    Change national perceptions
    Water access and productivity – high poverty reduction potential
    Transform water governance
    Data, monitoring, modeling and feedback to support adaptive management
    Rethink water storage – (eg groundwater banking)
    Manage water demand
    Grow more food per unit of water
    Revitalize irrigation, upgrade rainfed agriculture