Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World

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Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World - David Molden, Deputy Director General, International Water Management Institute

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  • Changed title. Many will not recognize ‘CC’ as an abbreviation ‘climate change’. Changed ‘landscapes’ to ‘agriculture’. Many in your audience are likely to think ‘lawn care’ when they read ‘landscapes’. Replaced & with ‘and’. Changed point size of last two points to match first four.
  • Agricultural Water Management - The Key To Food Security In A Changing World

    1. 1. Agricultural Water Management:  The Key to Food Security in a Changing World<br />David Molden<br />International Water Management Institute<br />
    2. 2. Water Scarcity 2000<br />1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity<br />Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007<br />
    3. 3. Drivers of Water Use<br />Other Water Pressures<br />Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025<br />Agriculture – Water fuels production increases<br />Population & Diet– food grain production projected to increase by 100% by 2050<br />Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land<br />Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability – potential yields decline in Africa<br />
    4. 4. Limits – Reached or Breached<br />River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left<br />Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets<br />Fisheries– ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent<br />Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production<br />
    5. 5. ASIA: High Numbers of Poor, AFRICA: High Percentage Poor <br />1.7M poor, 960M undernourished people (12/2008, FAO)<br />
    6. 6. Policy Concerns<br />Food self-sufficiency – increase food production to meet growing population needs (need more water)<br />Save water from agriculture – to meet needs of growing cities and environment (less water for ag)<br />Water to fight poverty (more water)<br />IS THERE ENOUGH WATER?<br />
    7. 7. Will there be enough water?<br />
    8. 8. Will there be enough water?<br />More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050<br />More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050<br /> More calories & more meat, fish, milk<br /> More food production – need to double grain production by 2050<br /> More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs double <br />Something has to change <br />More calories & more meat, fish, milk<br />More food production – need to double grain production by 2050<br />More water for food – if practices don’t change, double water needs <br />This equation doesn’t work – something has to change <br />
    9. 9. Water Use – Today and 2050<br />Today<br />2050<br />No Water<br /> Productivity Gains<br />Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA<br />Without Water Productivity Gains, <br />Crop ET doubles by 2050 <br />
    10. 10. Climate Change<br />
    11. 11. Some areas will be wetter, others drier, more rainfall variability, all hotter<br />Source: Arnell, 2003.<br />
    12. 12. Water Scarcity and Climate Change<br />Some areas wetter, some areas drier<br />Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007. <br />
    13. 13. Climate Change, Water, Agriculture3 Critical Concerns<br />Glacial Snowmelt – Himalayas, Andes, African Highlands<br /> Rising Sea Levels - River delta systems<br /> Mekong, Egypt’s Nile Delta<br /> Climate Variability – across <br /> sub-Saharan Africa<br />
    14. 14. Water implications of mitigation measures?<br />Biofuels<br />Afforestation<br />
    15. 15. Water Management<br />Solutions<br />Olivia Molden<br />
    16. 16. Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands<br />Invest in rainfed agriculture<br />Invest in irrigation<br />Improve productivity of existing systems<br />Expand irrigation<br />Promote trade from highly productive to less productive regions<br />Manage demand, consume and waste less<br />
    17. 17. Consider the Full Range of Agricultural Water Management Options<br />Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services<br />
    18. 18. 1. Water to Fight Poverty –what is potential?<br />
    19. 19. Where are the rural poor in SSA ?<br />Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty<br />
    20. 20. Poverty reduction potential of AWM solutions across livelihood zones<br />Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty<br />
    21. 21. Who could benefit from Agricultural Water Management Solutions?<br />This Project (Gates funded Ag Water Management Solutions):<br />65M rural poor livelihoods improved in 15 years<br />
    22. 22. 2. Transform water governance<br />Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and ecosystem degradation continue - not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings <br />Water availability has changed, but our actions have not<br />No blueprints - need to craft local solutions<br />
    23. 23.
    24. 24. Form Coalitions<br />Emerging interest of private sector<br />Important to trigger policy change<br />
    25. 25. 6150<br />7,000<br />4729<br />6,000<br />5,000<br />3255<br />4,000<br />2486<br />3,000<br />1406<br />1287<br />2,000<br />746<br />1,000<br />43<br />4<br />0<br />China<br />Laos<br />Brazil<br />South<br />Africa<br />Kenya<br />Ethiopia<br />North<br />Thailand<br />America<br />Australia<br />Water storage mitigates variability<br />3. Water Storage – a safeguard against climate variability<br />But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater “groundwater banking” and soil moisture. <br />And beyond: insurance, local trade<br />Cubic meters per capita<br />Source: World Bank data from ICOLD<br />
    26. 26. MAKING STORAGE “SMARTER” –storage continuum<br />ACCESS<br />SURFACE<br />SUBSURFACE<br />Increasing capital costs<br />Increasing complexity of management<br />Increasing environmental and social cost<br />Reservoirs<br />large<br />small<br />Ponds and Tanks<br />Boreholes,<br />deep /shallow <br />wells<br />Aquifers<br />deep<br />shallow<br />Soil Moisture<br />Natural wetlands<br />Increasing resilience<br />Increasing resilience<br />Dam outlets,<br />pumps, <br />off-take towers<br />Direct,<br />Buckets, pumps<br />Planting crops<br />All of the above<br />
    27. 27. 4. Manage Water Demand<br />Reducing withdrawals mitigates – half of India’s irrigation is from groundwater requiring pumps<br />Put in place innovative incentives, allocation, pricing policies to curtail water demands<br />Food waste is water waste<br />
    28. 28. 5. Grow more food per unit of water<br />
    29. 29. Increase Water Productivity<br /> Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop<br /><ul><li>Reduces water needs</li></ul>Range shows that there is considerable scope for improvement<br /><ul><li>Wheat 500 to 2000 liters/kg
    30. 30. Beef 5000 to 20000 liters/kg</li></ul>IPCC – crop yields in SSA could decline by 50%, but<br />Comprehensive Assessment says could more than double with investment and management<br />
    31. 31. Number of publications related to water productivity from 1990 to 2007<br />(The result is from Google Scholar search using fixed term “water productivity” )<br />
    32. 32. Opportunities in RainfedAgriculture<br />Largest opportunities to build resilience and improve water productivity are in rainfed landscapes – low water productivity, high poverty<br />Technology<br />water harvesting, supplemental irrigation<br />Field water conservation to reduce nonproductive evaporation<br />Improved nutrients <br />Drought resistance varieties<br />Expand Policiesto includeupgrading rainfedsystems<br />
    33. 33. Asia needs to feed an extra 1.5 billion people by 2050, with food needs projected to double.<br />Cannot rely on rainfed alone<br />Asia contains 70% of the world’s irrigated area<br />Important to do it right for:<br /><ul><li>Climate change
    34. 34. Food security
    35. 35. Environment</li></ul>Large scope to improve<br />Performance<br />Water productivity variations<br />
    36. 36. It won’t be easy<br /> Adoption rates are low– water productivity not necessarily a farmer concern, markets may not be in place, need to understand political-economy of water useScale effects- Farm water productivity gains can increase basin depletion, not save water<br /> Need to understand tradeoffsand align incentivesof different actors by a variety of means (economic incentives, allocation)<br />
    37. 37. Water Use – Today and 2050<br />Today<br /> No Water<br /> Productivity Gains<br />2050<br />CA Scenario<br />CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can further reduce water needs<br />Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA<br />
    38. 38. Summary - Water Agenda<br />Change national perceptions <br />Water access and productivity – high poverty reduction potential<br />Transform water governance<br />Data, monitoring, modeling and feedback to support adaptive management<br />Rethink water storage – (eg groundwater banking)<br />Manage water demand<br />Grow more food per unit of water<br />Revitalize irrigation, upgrade rainfed agriculture<br />

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