A GLOBAL PICTURE OF DROUGHT OCCURRENCE, MAGNITUDE, AND PREPAREDNESS Nishadi Eriyagama, Vladimir Smakhtin and Nilantha Gama...
OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE To examine the global patterns and impacts of droughts as an individual natural disaster  Why?   A...
METHODOLOGY How?   <ul><ul><li>AQUASTAT (FAO) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grid d ed Population of the World (Columbia Unive...
SOME EXAMPLE INDICES Source: Figures created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Popula...
MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, COEFFICIENT OF VARIABILITY & DROUGHT Mean Annual Precipitation  Coefficient of Variability (CV)...
DROUGHT RISK INDEX  Precipitation Drought Risk Index Measure of frequency of drought occurrence and drought intensity (aft...
STORAGE DROUGHT DURATION INDEX (SLI) What proportion of the annual hydrological drought duration can a country’s present s...
STORAGE DROUGHT DEFICIT INDEX (SDI) What proportion of the annual hydrological drought deficit can a country’s present sto...
INFRASTRUCTURE  VULNERABILITY INDEX Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (0-100)  Measure of Anti-drought coping capacity  S...
SOCIOECONOMIC DROUGHT VULNERABILITY INDEX Measure of dependence on agriculture and diversity of crops  Socioeconomic Droug...
SOME KEY MESSAGES (1) <ul><li>Naturally arid and semi-arid areas: higher probability of drought occurrence </li></ul><ul><...
SOME KEY MESSAGES(2)  <ul><li>In drought years the highest per capita water losses occur in areas which are not normally w...
CONCLUSIONS AND THE WAY FORWARD <ul><li>It is hoped that this study may: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>develop into a Global Droug...
THANK YOU! http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/IWMI_Research_Reports/PDF/PUB133/RR133.aspx Reference : Eriyagama, Nisha...
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A global picture of drought occurrence, magnitude, and preparedness

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Nishadi Eriyagama, Vladimir Smakhtin and Nilantha Gamage, International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka, Second International Conference on Drought Managementm, Istanbul, Turkey, March, 2010

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A global picture of drought occurrence, magnitude, and preparedness

  1. 1. A GLOBAL PICTURE OF DROUGHT OCCURRENCE, MAGNITUDE, AND PREPAREDNESS Nishadi Eriyagama, Vladimir Smakhtin and Nilantha Gamage International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka Second International Conference on Drought Management Istanbul, Turkey March, 2010
  2. 2. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE To examine the global patterns and impacts of droughts as an individual natural disaster Why? Affect all world regions Severe social and economic impacts, especially in developing countries Studies that map global patterns, impacts of droughts are limited or non-existent Climate change: more frequent, more severe and longer lasting droughts
  3. 3. METHODOLOGY How? <ul><ul><li>AQUASTAT (FAO) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grid d ed Population of the World (Columbia University) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>University of East Anglia (CRU* data) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams) </li></ul></ul>*CRU- Climate Research Unit Mapped 14 drought related characteristics and indices Cover various aspects: meteorology, social vulnerability, drought preparedness At either country scale or a regular grid scale Produced by integrating about 15 publicly available global data sets:
  4. 4. SOME EXAMPLE INDICES Source: Figures created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University), University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams etc. Mean Annual Precipitation and variability Per Capita Mean Annual River Discharge Agricultural Water Crowding Drought Risk Index Mean Drought Run Duration Infrastructure Vulnerability Index Socioeconomic Drought Vulnerability Index Storage-Drought Duration Index Storage-Drought Deficit Index
  5. 5. MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, COEFFICIENT OF VARIABILITY & DROUGHT Mean Annual Precipitation Coefficient of Variability (CV) of Mean Annual Precipitation Probability (%) of annual precipitation in any year being less than 75% of its long term mean Naturally arid and semi-arid areas have higher CV and higher probability of drought occurrence Source: Figures created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University), University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams) etc.
  6. 6. DROUGHT RISK INDEX Precipitation Drought Risk Index Measure of frequency of drought occurrence and drought intensity (after Hashimoto et al. 1982 and Zongxue et al. 1998) Range: 0-1 River Discharge Drought Risk Index <ul><li>River discharge drought risk higher than precipitation drought risk </li></ul><ul><li>Naturally arid and semi arid areas show higher drought risk </li></ul><ul><li>Europe: “better-off” Africa: the worst case </li></ul>Source: Figures created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University) , University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams) etc.
  7. 7. STORAGE DROUGHT DURATION INDEX (SLI) What proportion of the annual hydrological drought duration can a country’s present storage satisfy, based on its monthly water needs If SLI>=1: Satisfactory Storage (green and blue) Source: Figure created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University) , University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams) etc.
  8. 8. STORAGE DROUGHT DEFICIT INDEX (SDI) What proportion of the annual hydrological drought deficit can a country’s present storage satisfy, based on its monthly water needs If SDI>=1: Susceptible to river fragmentation, overexploitation of freshwater resources (dark green and blue) Source: Figure created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University), University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams) etc.
  9. 9. INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY INDEX Infrastructure Vulnerability Index (0-100) Measure of Anti-drought coping capacity Source: Figures created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University), University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams etc. rural accessibility improved drinking water availability
  10. 10. SOCIOECONOMIC DROUGHT VULNERABILITY INDEX Measure of dependence on agriculture and diversity of crops Socioeconomic Drought Vulnerability Index (0-100) Source: Figure created by N.Eriyagama (IWMI),2008 using data from AQUASTAT, ProdSTAT, Gridded Population of the World (Columbia University), University of East Anglia and the World Register of Dams (International Commission on Large Dams etc. Percentage employed in agriculture Share of agricultural GDP Crops diversity
  11. 11. SOME KEY MESSAGES (1) <ul><li>Naturally arid and semi-arid areas: higher probability of drought occurrence </li></ul><ul><li>Generally river discharge drought risk is higher than precipitation drought risk </li></ul><ul><li>Areas more prone to multi-year hydrological droughts: Majority of Africa; South, Southwest, Central Asia; and northern Australia </li></ul><ul><li>Out of them, Australia and southern Africa appear to have sufficient storage to satisfy their water needs during drought </li></ul><ul><li>South and Central Asia have no apparent hydrological barriers for increasing storage in the future </li></ul>
  12. 12. SOME KEY MESSAGES(2) <ul><li>In drought years the highest per capita water losses occur in areas which are not normally water scarce due to climate </li></ul><ul><li>Potential for rainwater use in agriculture which could be tapped with increased rainwater harvesting </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural economies (Asia and Africa) are much more vulnerable to adverse societal impacts of meteorological droughts </li></ul><ul><li>The African continent lags behind the rest of the world on many indicators related to drought preparedness </li></ul>
  13. 13. CONCLUSIONS AND THE WAY FORWARD <ul><li>It is hoped that this study may: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>develop into a Global Drought Indicators ‘Atlas’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>feed into operational drought tools (drought monitoring, drought early warning systems) and national drought preparedness plans </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Future research should concentrate on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>quantifying and indexing vulnerability to droughts within countries and at local and household levels to identify vulnerable regions or populations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the differences between short term and long term droughts (impacts and response options) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>identifying how some of the mapped indices might change with climate change </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. THANK YOU! http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/IWMI_Research_Reports/PDF/PUB133/RR133.aspx Reference : Eriyagama, Nishadi; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Gamage, Nilantha. 2009. Mapping drought patterns and impacts: a global perspective. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 23p. (IWMI Research Report 133) doi: 10.3910/2009.132 http://dx.doi.org/10.3910/2009.132

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