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Biotechnology, Chemistry, and the Nine Billion
 

Biotechnology, Chemistry, and the Nine Billion

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Senior Fellow Val Giddings, as part of "Innovation Day" 2011, presents on the importance of chemistry in evolving sustainable agricultural practices. He argues both Green Revolution Solutions ...

Senior Fellow Val Giddings, as part of "Innovation Day" 2011, presents on the importance of chemistry in evolving sustainable agricultural practices. He argues both Green Revolution Solutions (internal involving topical applications of pesticides/herbicides, external apps of fertilizers) and Doubly Green Revolution Solutions (building on GR but adding solutions from work with internal chemistry) are essential and indispensible to feeding a world population of billions.

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    Biotechnology, Chemistry, and the Nine Billion Biotechnology, Chemistry, and the Nine Billion Presentation Transcript

    • Biotechnolog y,Chemistry, and the Nine Billion L. Val Giddings, Ph.D. Senior Fellow, ITIF 20 September 2011 Chemical Heritage Foundation 315 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA
    • “The greatest challenge of the 21stcentury: feeding 9 billion people witha sustainable agricultural productionsystem.” --Chrispeels, 2000
    • GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY1999 -- 70% of people grow whatthey eat2025 -- 50% will live in cities, willneed to be fed through marketchannels.
    • “It took some 10,000 years to expandfood production to the current levelof about 5 billion tons per year.By 2025, we will have to nearlydouble current production again.” --Norman Borlaug, 2000
    • FAO Projections…“…prices above historic equilibriumlevels during the next ten years…”higher costs for animal feeddemand increase 100% over 40y
    • How can weincrease productionby 100% in 40 years?
    • To double productionFAO estimatesgains will come from: additional farmlands 20% increased intensity 10% innovative technologies 70%
    • 20th Century ~ Chemistry fertilizers & pesticides (munitions…) green revolution saved billions through chemistry21st Century ~ Biology nucleic acids greater challenges; require more complex solutions chemistry will remain indispensible
    • Where does chemistry fit in?
    • “The reports of my death are greatlyexaggerated…” -- Mark Twain
    • …fertilizers, pesticides andtransgenes are the best possible protectors of the planet. -----The Economist, “Ears of Plenty: The story of man’s staple food” 24 December 2005.
    • “A truly extraordinary variety ofalternatives to the chemical control ofinsects is available. All have this incommon: They are biological solutions,based on understanding of the livingorganisms they seek to control. …Someof the most interesting of the recentwork is concerned with ways of forgingweapons from the insects’ own lifeprocesses.”
    • “A truly extraordinary variety ofalternatives to the chemical control ofinsects is available. All have this incommon: They are biological solutions,based on understanding of the livingorganisms they seek to control. …Someof the most interesting of the recentwork is concerned with ways of forgingweapons from the insects’ own lifeprocesses.” --Rachel Carson, Silent Spring, 1962
    • It’s ALL chemistry… chemistry is the keystone.
    • Where are we headed?
    • Green Revolution Solutions = externalinvolve topical applications ofpesticides/herbicides, external apps offertilizersDoubly Green Revolution Solutions:build on GR but add solutions fromwork with internal chemistry Both are essential and indispensible
    • Products of agriculturalbiotechnology are becoming thenew “conventional” standard
    • Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2009: Industrial and Developing Countries (M Has, M Acres) M Acres 346 140 296 120 Total Industrial 247 100 Developing 198 80 148 60 99 40 49 20 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: Clive James, 2010
    • Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2009: By Crop (Million Hectares, Million Acres)M Acres198 80173 70 Soybean148 60 Maize Cotton124 50 Canola 99 40 74 30 49 20 25 10 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: Clive James, 2010
    • Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2009: By Trait (Million Hectares, Million Acres)M Acres 222 90 198 80 Herbicide Tolerance 173 70 Insect Resistance (Bt) 148 Herb Tolerance/Insect resistance 60 124 50 99 40 74 30 49 20 25 10 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Clive James, 2010
    • Global Adoption Rates (%) for PrincipalBiotech Crops (Million Hectares, Million Acres), 2009 M Acres 445 180 158 395 160 Conventional 346 Biotech 140 296 120 90 247 100 198 80 148 60 99 40 33 31 49 20 0 0 77% 49% 26% 21% Soybean Cotton Maize CanolaSource: Clive James, 2010
    • Biotech Crop Countries and Mega-Countries, 2009
    • GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPS Million Hectares (1996 to 2009) 200 “Trait Hectares” 180 Total Hectares 25 Biotech Crop Countries Industrial 160 Developing 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 A record 14 million farmers, in 25 countries, planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres) in 2009, a sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) over 2008.Source: Clive James, 2009.
    • Over the next five years, we anticipate… 17 new soybean events (currently ~5) From 9 maize events to 24 From 4 canola to 8 From 12 cotton to 27 From 1* rice to 15 From 1* or 2 potatoes to 8 From 7 to 23 minor crops R&D on at least 57 crops in 63 countries
    • Technology source Commercialization Regulatory Advanced Projected approval R&D total by 2015 current pending pipelineUSA and EU 24 7 10 26 67Asia 9 0 11 34 54Latin America 0 0 2 1 3
    • 1st generation = agronomic traits2nd gen = quality/consumer traits3rd gen = GURTS/ inducible traits4th gen = complex, polygenic traits: watermetabolism, customized biofuels, N2fixation, etc.
    • “…Societies initially lacking anadvantage either acquire it fromsocieties possessing it or (if they failto do so) are replaced by those othersocieties.” --Jared Diamond Guns, Germs and Steel; W.W. Norton, 1998, p. 407