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The Road to Durban PowerPoint is a summary of the events and negotiations that have transpired since COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010) and preparatory to COP17 (Nov. 28-Dec.9, 2011).

The Road to Durban PowerPoint is a summary of the events and negotiations that have transpired since COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010) and preparatory to COP17 (Nov. 28-Dec.9, 2011).

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  • Climate change – with or without agreement What will happen to the climate and to the multilateral process post-2012 as the Kyoto Protocol ends, the 2  C cap becomes unattainable, and the effects of climate change intensify? *Ric say add a slide to preceed th

Road to durban_share Road to durban_share Presentation Transcript

  • Kyoto and Beyond The 5th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change www.isciences.com November 7 th , 2011
  • Introduction Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Road to Durban is a summary of the events and negotiations that have transpired since COP16 (Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 2010) and preparatory to COP17 (Nov. 28-Dec.9, 2011).
    • Other presentations in the series include*:
      • Kyoto and beyond: the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change (2008)
      • Report on Copenhagen COP15 (2009)
      • Road to Cancun COP16 (2010)
      • Report on Cancun COP16 (2011)
      • * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
  • Contents NOTE: Throughout this presentation clickable hyperlinks that provide additional information will be underlined and written in green .
  • A Brief Review of COP16 COP16 (Conference of the Parties) was held from Nov. 29 to Dec. 10, 2010 in Cancun, Mexico. “ Cancun was a big step... Governments renewed their trust in each other, but to succeed fully they need to press boldly ahead with what they have agreed. “ Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary
    • COP16 was deemed a relative success , restoring global belief in the process of climate change legislation.
    • The meeting resulted in the Cancun Agreements , tangible steps towards reducing the effects of climate change through 5 drafted mechanisms.
    • The meeting failed to resolve the future of the Kyoto Protocol , which ends in 2012.
    Image Credit: UNFCCC Website
  • A Brief Review of COP16 The 5 Mechanisms of the Cancun Agreements
    • The Green Climate Fund
    • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+)
    • Monitoring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV)
    • Incorporation of the CopenhagenAccord
    • Adaptation Framework
    For more information click on an item in the list
  • Significant Events Between COP16 & COP17 January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December Oct 1 - 7 UN Climate Change Conference in Panama Aug 29 Maite Nkoana-Mashabane meets Organized Labour Event Key Official UNFCCC Meetings Other Significant Meetings and Events Aug 22 Maite Nkoana-Mashabane meets business leaders Sept 26 – 27 Pre–COP17 Summit June 6 - 17 UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn August 26 – 27 Eighth BASIC Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change January 27-28 South African Civil Society Meeting April 3 – 11 UN Bangkok Climate Change Conference For more information click on an event box
  • Essential Points of Understanding “ We go to Durban with no illusions that it will be a walk in the park“ Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa
    • This is the last conference before the 1 st commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends (Dec. 31, 2012) and there is no binding instrument post-2012 to address climate change.
    • The differing viewpoints between developed and developing countries continue to block significant progress.
    • Climate is changing, impacts of climate change are now emerging , and will intensify over the coming decades.
    COP17 Nov. 28 – Dec. 9, 2011, Durban, South Africa
    • Increasingly, scientists suggest that the window of opportunity to avoid long-term consequences is closing as global temperatures rise.
  • Provisional Agenda*
    • Discuss progress and implementation of the mechanisms created at COP16, as well as how these mechanisms will be funded.
    • Discuss and review country commitments to matters such as global financing, emissions reductions, and development and transfer of green technology.
    • Discuss the financial and technological needs of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and methods for adapting to current effects of climate change.
    • Discuss methods for equitable access to sustainable development for both Developed and Developing countries.
    COP 17 Key Agenda Items * The agenda will be finalized in Durban. Provisional agenda can be found here .
  • South Africa’s Contextual Role As host country, South Africa will bring the most vulnerable nations into the center of the climate change discussion. Click map image for more information on South Africa’s preparations
    • South Africa is an influential and credible voice of developing nations , particularly as a member of the BASIC countries .
    • Many hope South Africa will facilitate understanding and cooperation between developed and developing nations. Global confidence in South Africa’s ability to lead negotiations is high.
    • South Africa, a top 20 GHG emitter, has committed to reducing emissions 34% by 2020 and 42% by 2025. However, some economists say this would require significant restructuring of the country ’s industries.
    Image Credit: south-africa.purzuit.com/
  • South Africa’s Leadership Role Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s President, believes COP17 will highlight the impacts climate change has had on Africa. Zuma cautions leaders not to be “ overly theoretical when countries face life and death situations as a result of climate change , ” and he seeks an outcome that is balanced and fair with support for legislative action.
    • Determine the future of the Kyoto Protocol,
    • Make adaptation central to climate change legislation,
    • Implement COP16 decisions.
      • Zuma ’s COP17 objectives:
    “ It is a timely conference for our country. Disaster events have become an increasing burden.” President Zuma image credit: Wikimedia Commons
  • South Africa’s Leadership Role
    • Avoid the deadlock and inactivity present at COP15,
    • Build upon the progress made at COP16.
    Click here for information on Nkoana-Mashabane’s main concerns for COP17 Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President Designate, faces pressure to facilitate cooperation between developed and developing nations. Nkoana-Mashabane must: Nkoana-Mashabane, South Africa ’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, hopes to prove that developing nations have a credible voice in climate change discussions. image provided by Wikimedia Commons
  • Points of View: Developed vs. Developing Countries On Primary Concerns for COP17
  • Points of View: Developed vs. Developing Countries On a Second Commitment Period for the Kyoto Protocol
  • Addressing the Growth Cap Attempts to limit global temperature rise to 2  C may no longer be an option.
    • To constrain the increase to 2  C, GHG emissions should not exceed 450ppm (parts per million) of CO2 equivalent.
    • Avoiding catastrophic consequences of a 4  C rise is not achievable with current emissions reductions pledges, and will require a change in policy.
    • According to the EIA*, the projected emissions pathway is 650ppm, which could cause a global temperature rise of around 4  C with severe consequences .
    * US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Image Credit: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3076.aspx
  • Addressing the Growth Cap Limiting global temperature rise to 2  C will require transformative changes*.
    • Reducing the use of fossil fuels, and increasing energy conservation and efficiency will not be enough .
    • Oil, natural gas, and coal demand must peak before 2020 .
    • Green tech spending must increase to $18 trillion per year between 2010 and 2035 – $13.5 trillion more than currently planned.
    • The amount of CO2 emitted per dollar of GDP must be reduced in 2008-2020 two times faster than in 1990-2008, and four times faster in 2020-2035.
    *IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf The technology to make these changes exists, but a transformation of this scope has never occurred.
  • Current State of Global Emissions Parts Per Million (PPM) – measurement of atmospheric C02 levels Gigatonne – one billion tonnes, the typical measurement for C02 emissions data 1 PPM = 2.13 Gigatonnes** Emissions measurements for 2009 were the highest in history.* * IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 Factsheet; Online at: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2010/factsheets.pdf ** Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center *** http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1959 A chief economist at the IEA has stated that record emissions hinder hopes of limiting global temperature rise to less than 2  C.*** Gigatonnes PPM 2009 Recorded Emissions 30.6 14.4 2008-2035 Projected Emissions 1,384.5 650 2008-2035 Emissions Needed to Limit Global Temp. Rise to 2 Degrees Celsius 958.5 450
  • Current State of Global Emissions
    • About 75% of the 2009 emissions increase came from developing countries compared to 60% in 2008.
    • 80% of 2020 projected emissions from the power sector are already locked in – amounts are significant and will come from existing power plants and plants currently under construction.
    “ The figures are a stark warning to governments to make rapid climate progress . ” Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary. Emissions are increasing from the developing world, and projected emissions from the power sector are locked in. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
  • Current State of Global Emissions * Global C02 emissions statistics for 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration (US EIA). EIA statistics for 2010 have not yet been compiled for public release. Click here to download the Excel file containing the full set of statistics. Click here to view a graphic of the statistics (Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton , The Guardian). Emissions status of the big emitters: US, China, India*
    • The US ranks 1st in per capita emissions among the biggest economies –18 tons per person.
    • China’s emissions have increased 171% since 2000 – its emissions levels are greater than the US and Canada combined.
    • India ranks 3rd and Russia ranks 4 th in the list of largest CO2 emitters.
  • Current State of Global Financing
    • There is uncertainty about which financing mechanisms are most effective in helping developing countries reduce emissions and implement green development.
    • The majority of donor countries received low scores in a funding transparency scorecard **, suggesting that there is little way of knowing how much money is contributed to which projects.
    • Pledges for REDD+ may be too little considering the number of implementing economies. And, funds are not being distributed in a timely manner, adversely affecting the political will of rainforest nations who need to alter agricultural methods.
    * World Bank ** International Institute for Environment and Development It is estimated that each year for the next 20 years $275 billion is needed for adaptation and mitigation.*
    • The international carbon credits market has suffered a nearly total collapse, with only $1.5bn of credits traded last year - the lowest since the market opened in 2005.*
  • Emerging Science: The Role of Forests There is an increase in attention to the role carbon sinks will play in sequestering GHG emissions.*
    • According to a report released in Sciencexpress by Pan et al., forests play an important role as global carbon sinks .
    * Pan et al. “A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests” ** 1 petagram = 1,000,000,000,000,000 grams Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons Land monitoring policies, such as REDD+ have become increasingly important to preserve forests
    • Studies by Pan et al. have revealed that the world’s forests are currently sequestering 861 ± 66 petagrams** of carbon (PgC).
    • Some sinks have increased in size. The boreal sink in European Russia increased in size by 35% due to factors that include agricultural abandonment and reduced harvesting.
    • Others, such as some tropical sinks, have decreased due to deforestation for agriculture and pasture.
  • Emerging Science: Extreme Weather Now A recent IPCC draft report* states a 2-in-3 probability that extreme weather has already worsened due to human-induced GHG emissions.
    • IPCC scientists are 99% certain that the world will experience an increase in extremes of heat and decrease of cold.
    • Heat waves may peak at 5 degrees hotter by mid-century and at 9 degrees hotter by the end of the century.
    * IPCC draft report, The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). Final report is expected to be released in mid-November, 2011.
    • The extremes include long droughts, monsoonal rains and heavy flooding, and intense heat waves.
    • The frequency, duration, and intensity of extremes will continue to increase over the coming decades.
    Image Credit: NASA, Wikimedia Commons
  • Emerging Science and COP17 How will the emerging scientific knowledge impact discussions and outcomes in Durban?
    • Inability to limit temp rise to 2  C. May facilitate cooperation and decrease deadlock as pressure to act intensifies.
    • Current emissions pathway (650ppm, +4  C) . May result in more “finger pointing” between nations, creating disagreement and deadlock similar to COP15 in Copenhagen
    • Extreme weather now. May intensify discussions on adaptation for the most vulnerable nations, and developed nations may participate with a new sense of urgency as their vulnerabilities are also exposed.
    • Carbon sinks. May propel more funding for programs such as REDD+ and the Green Climate Fund as the importance of green land-use, such as carbon sinks grows.
    By US Army Africa [CC-BY-2.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
  • Moving Forward in an Uncertain Future Upcoming opportunities to advance climate change progress.
    • The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM ) ends with the 1st commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (Dec. 31, 2012), but some hope that CDM can be kept alive, even without binding targets.
    • The European Union, with its own reduction targets and credits (ending in 2020), is predicted to be a driving force for CDM post-2012.
    • Other nations, such as Venezuela and Bolivia, have voiced that CDM should not operate without another binding commitment period.
    Important Meetings Post-COP17 June 2012 - G20 summit, Mexico. May be some discussion on climate change. June 2012 - Rio+20 Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Participants to discuss successes and failures of past 20 years of climate change legislation and ways to tackle future issues. Late 2012 - COP18, Qatar or South Korea. NOTE: It is possible the Kyoto Protocol will have ended completely, therefore eliminating COP18.
  • Conclusion: Possible Outcomes from COP17 Can COP17 generate effective, timely actions to address increasingly urgent climate issues? Regional coalitions of nations pursue collective agreements outside of the UNFCCC process. Time runs out for the Kyoto Protocol. COP17 sets 5-yr target for Protocol successor. Mechanisms of the Protocol and the Cancun Agreements continue, even without binding targets. The Rio+20 Earth Summit gains new urgency as a potential vehicle of change. Image Credit: UNFCCC
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  • Citation When referencing this slideshow please use the following citation: ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The Road to Durban. A slideshow; 5th installment in the series: Kyoto and Beyond . November 7, 2011. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. www.isciences.com November 7, 2011
    • The following slides provide support for information presented in the preceding slides.
    Appendix www.isciences.com November 7, 2011
  • The Green Climate Fund What it is: A fund to be initiated in 2020 that will allocate $100 billion to developed nations to help them reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to aid in adaptation to the negative effects that have already occurred. Current Status: The Fund’s Transitional Committee (TC), consisting of reps from 25 developing countries and 15 developed countries, has been established. The TC has conducted 3 out of the 4 meetings scheduled to take place before COP17. Country reps are currently in disagreement about functions of the fund and are hoping to compromise at the next meeting in Cape Town in October 2011. Christina Figueres believes the TC is on track to present the Fund’s design for approval at COP17.
  • REDD+ What it is : REDD+ emphasizes reduction of harmful emissions from deforestation. It creates incentives for local people, governments, and industries to alter agricultural methods . Current Status: An increased focus on REDD+ began at the Panama Climate Change Conference in October 2011. Discussions were held on progress and workshops were implemented on safeguards and monitoring systems. Pledges for REDD+ total $4.5 billion for 2010-2012. The Volunt a ry REDD+ Database has been established to provide information on financing, action, and results. The database found a discrepancy in the “funding received” numbers between the recipients and the funders. The next meeting is scheduled to take place during COP17.
  • Monitoring, Reporting and Verifying (MRV) What it is: MRV requires developed and developing nations to submit biennial reports of emissions. It creates workshops to verify country targets and helps improve reliability of country pledges. Current Status: MRV was discussed thoroughly at the Panama Climate Change Conference in October 2011. Participants discussed guidelines for the mechanism including which information will be reported and how input will be internationally reviewed. Many feel MRV has seen the most progress, and it is seen as a positive indicator of success at COP17.
  • Incorporation of the Copenhagen Accord What it is: The mechanism was created to bring the non-binding emissions reduction pledges made in the Copenhagen Accord from COP15 into the formal UN process. Current Status: This mechanism has seen little progress. However, there are hopes that an international agreement will be created in Durban that will require this incorporation.
  • Adaptation Framework What it is: The Adaptation Framework assists Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in creating national adaptation plans to cope with negative effects of climate change. Current Status: Still to be determined are the guidelines for possible National Adaptation Plans and the composition of the Adaptation Committee. A work program has been established to map out various approaches to address loss and damage and to solidify the UNFCCC’s role in implementing these approaches. Adaptation will be a focus of COP17.
  • BASIC
    • The BASIC countries, also known as G4, is a group made up of B razil, S outh Africa, C hina, and I ndia, formed by an agreement on Nov. 28, 2009 at COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark.
    • The group, initiated and led by China, drafted the Copenhagen Accord alongside the U.S. during COP15.
    Image Provided by: Wikimedia Commons
  • Impacts of Climate Change South Africa is just one of many nations already experiencing negative effects of climate change. Examples include:
    • An increase of veld fires in the Western Cape
    • Severe drought in the Eastern Cape
    • Exceptionally heavy rain throughout the nation
    • Drastic changes in farming production causing a significant rise in food prices.
  • South Africa’s COP17 Preparations UN representatives have deemed SA’s preparations to be on track. They include:
    • Prepping Media and Hotel Accommodations. More than 6,000 rooms have been booked and paid for.
    • Implementing workshops that offer training sessions on negotiating skills and consensus building. Ex. A training workshop on climate change diplomacy (Feb 28 – Mar 4, 2011). The workshop aimed to increase knowledge and skillsets of government officials who work in the field.
    • Giving presentations on the details of the current deadlock in the process.
    • Establishing a Participation Fund. The fund will allocate money to NGOs and Civil Societies for their preparations for COP17.
  • Nkoana-Mashabane’s Main Concerns
    • Adaptation : Especially for impoverished families who do not have resources to deal with climate change.
    • The Kyoto Protocol : Deciding if there will be a 2 nd commitment period and highlighting what this would mean for countries in Africa and other nations that are the most susceptible to negative effects of climate change.
    • Sustainable Development and financing: Nkoana-Mashabane feels these subjects often take a backseat to others, but that they are equally as important as this is not only an environmental issue.
    • Operationalize Decisions Made at COP16: As it may no longer be probable to avoid a 2 degree Celsius rise, Nkoana-Mashabane feels it is urgent to make progress on COP16 decisions.
  • South African Civil Society Meeting Date: Jan. 27 - 28, 2011 Location: Durban, South Africa Meeting Type: Civil Society The South African Civil Society, consisting of organizations and individuals, met to discuss positions and strategies for COP17. Participants made progress on creating a position paper discussing issues with the various opinions presented. Tasneem Essop, an activist from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), stressed that, from her experience at COP16, small organizations have little influence at COP meetings. According to Essop, the best way to contribute to the meetings is through activism in home countries.
  • UN Bangkok Climate Change Conference Date: April 3 – 8, 2011 Location: Bangkok, Thailand Meeting Type: Official UNFCCC A variety of climate change workshops were held during the conference including:
    • A workshop discussing conditions on gathering emission reduction targets
    • A workshop discussing mitigation actions and the support needed for implementation as well as the varying capabilities across Developing countries
    • A workshop discussing the commitments Annex I countries made under the Kyoto Protocol
    Discussions not concluded in Bangkok were scheduled to be addressed at the Climate Change Conference in Bonn.
  • Maite Nkoana-Mashabane Meets Organized Labour Date: Aug. 29, 2011 Location: Pretoria, South Africa Meeting Type: COP17 Preparatory Nkoana-Mashabane hosted the meeting with labor representatives in preparation for COP17. During the meeting, Nkoana-Mashabane emphasized that climate change would negatively effect developing countries first, particularly nations in Africa. She stressed that jobs must be created in line with a new low carbon path. Any adjustments should be made in such a way that new skills and employment opportunities are developed. Nkoana-Mashabane ended by stating that, in her position as COP17 president, she would make sure nations reach a fair, credible, and transparent consensus.
  • Maite Nkoana-Mashabane Meets Business Leaders Date: Aug. 22, 2011 Location: Johannesburg, South Africa Meeting Type: COP17 Preparatory The meeting was held to discuss the transition of countries into low carbon economies. Michael Sutcliffe, a business forum member, stated that adaptation is just as important to focus on at COP17 as mitigation. Sutcliffe mentioned that the dynamics of negotiations are constantly changing, especially because of the rapidly growing economies of China, Brazil, and India who now “sit in both the developed and developing country camps.” Nkoana-Mashabane expressed her optimism for reaching an agreement on a legally binding treaty at COP17. She restated the African delegation’s hopes for a 2 nd commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
  • Pre-COP17 Summit Date: Sept. 26 – 27, 2011 Location: Durban, South Africa Meeting Type: COP17 Preparatory The summit, attended by over 800 delegates, was called to discuss the development of a KwaZulu-Natal Action Plan during COP17. South Africa’s Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs, Edna Molewa spoke at the summit and expressed optimism that nations will reach a binding agreement. She highlighted 3 achievements that must be made in preparation of COP17:
    • The development, compilation, and approval of the South African negotiating position to be approved by Oct. 27
    • The coordination and implementation of tools that allow COP17 to leave a “lasting legacy”.
    • The creation of the Public Climate Change Outreach and Mobilization Programme
  • UN Climate Change Conference Date: June 6 – 17, 2011 Location: Bonn, Germany Meeting Type: Official UNFCCC The conference presented a bleak outlook of COP17. Christina Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, warned attendees of inaction and deadlock at the meeting. Figueres stressed the importance of realizing that COP17 may turn out few substantial decisions. Figueres admitted that there is not enough time left to approve a text for a 2 nd commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol. If a text is agreed upon, there will be a significant gap between the end of the 1 st commitment period and beginning of the 2 nd . In order to increase the chances of COP17’s success, the major interests of the BASIC countries, the U.S., and the European Union must be taken into account as these countries have proven to play a leading role in negotiations.
  • Eighth BASIC Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change Date: August 26 – 27, 2011 Location: Inhotim, Minas Gerais, Brazil Meeting type: Official BASIC BASIC ministers attending this meeting included, among others, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane (COP17 President), Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (Minister of External Relations of Brazil), Xie Zhenhua (Vice-Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission of China), and J.M. Mauskar (Special Secretary for Environment and Forests of India). Ministers agreed on the importance of reaching an international agreement centered on sustainable development at COP17. They also seek equity between expectations of Developed and Developing countries, while ensuring that responsibility is relative to the capability of each country. BASIC ministers believe the future of the Kyoto Protocol is the most important aspect of COP17. They also believe that the mechanisms discussed in the Cancun Agreements should be implemented immediately.
  • UN Climate Change Conference Date: Oct. 1 - 7, 2011 Location: Panama City, Panama Meeting Type: Official UNFCCC The conference focused on creating texts for further development at COP17 regarding how to help developing countries adapt to climate change and gain access to clean energy technology. Discussions were held exploring ways to limit developing countries emissions with support from developed countries. Participants presented ideas on how to mobilize the Green Climate Fund to help developing countries deal with climate change by 2020. The Panama conference was the last formal UNFCCC session before COP17. Issues that were not addressed or left incomplete will be continued in Durban.
  • Conditions in a 4  C Warmer World The following effects would occur from a 4 degree temperature rise:
    • Extensive, recurring droughts
    • Flooding of coastlines
    • Altering of the types of crops that can survive, therefore disrupting agriculture and food distribution
    • Sea levels may rise between .5 and 2 meters meaning forced resettlement of about 187 million people
    • Extreme weather patterns
  • Current State of Global Financing The funding transparency scorecard NOTE: Only two donor countries received transparency scores of 50%. This table shows transparency scores calculated by IIED for 10 donor countries. Scores represent the level of transparency reflected in the information these countries provided to IIED on “how much money, when, and for what.”* Click here to view the full IIED briefing including scores for each category.
  • Clean Development Mechanism CDM is a mechanism written into the Kyoto Protocol. It allows an Annex I nation with an emission reduction commitment to implement emission reduction projects in developing countries. These projects earn the Annex I nation a certified emission reduction credit that is counted towards meeting Kyoto targets. It is the first international credit technique of it kind.
  • Carbon Sink A carbon sink is a natural environment, such as a forest or ocean, which absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
  • Global Carbon Sinks This image, provided by the Pan et al. article*, portrays the forest carbon budget by country. * Pan et al. “A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests”