Kyoto and Beyond                                                  ROAD                                                   T...
IntroductionKyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving internationalclimate treaty process that began w...
Contents                        Historical Background                        Conference Overview                        Mu...
Background: Timeline                                      1997                                  Kyoto Protocol            ...
Background: UNFCCC, 1992The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is aninternational climate trea...
Background: UNFCCC, Annex PartiesThe Convention divides countries into three groups according to differingcommitments. An...
Background: COP3 Kyoto, 1997The UNFCCC’s COP3 produced the Kyoto Protocol (KP), a legally bindingaddition that assigns nat...
Background: COPs 15 & 16Recent COPs have not engendered confidence in the ability of the multilateralprocess to improve th...
Background: A Milestone in 2011?COP17 in Durban, South Africa proposed a 2nd KP period and broke new groundby creating a r...
Overview: COP18 Doha 2012COP18 will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.The 2012 meeting is the 18th Conference ...
Overview: COP18 ObjectivesCOP18’s primary objectives are to finalize the extended KP, close the LCA, andcreate an all-incl...
Overview: Qatar’s Leadership        Hosting a climate conference in the heart of the oil-        producing Gulf will test ...
Overview: Qatar’s ReadinessThe wealthy nation of Qatar is not lacking in resources to comfortably hostCOP18.The Conference...
Process: UN PreparationsThe UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP18 involves manyinterconnected UN bodies and wo...
Process: Pre-COP Meeting, BonnThe May 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference was tense and unproductive,challenged by a heavy...
Process: Pre-COP Meeting, BangkokThe informal additional session in Bangkok Aug. 30-Sept. 5, though confusingat times, ult...
Process: Conference ScheduleThe 12-day gathering at COP18 in Doha includes meetings of CMP, SBI,SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, an...
Issues: KP2, TransitionEnsuring a smooth transition to the KP 2nd commitment period at this late datewill be challenging, ...
Issues: KP2, “Hot Air”The “hot air” details of the 2nd KP period – new emissions targets and carry-over of surplus carbon ...
Issues: LCAThe Durban Platform stipulates that the LCA* be retired at COP18, assumingits work is concluded or successfully...
Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Vision”Negotiators must begin the delicate task of defining how the Durban Platformvision of “applic...
Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Ambition”Parties are also charged with increasing the level of ambition to close the gapbetween pled...
Issues: Too late for 2 ?The UNFCCC’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called forglobal emissions cuts of 25%-...
Outcomes: KP2 as the BridgeRealistically, KP2 is shaping up to be a very rickety bridge to the proposed“superhighway” of a...
Conclusion: Politics & NatureAs always, UN climate negotiations will be influenced by economics, politics,and nature.Lesso...
SourcesBello, Walden. Sept. 12, 2012. Breaking the Climate Stalemate. Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/walde...
SourcesKing, Ed. Sept. 11, 2012. Bangkok 2012: UN climate talks close with ‘unofficial’ draft on Kyoto Protocol 2nd period...
SourcesPeters, Glen P, Gregg Marland, Corinne Le Quéré, Thomas Boden, Josep G. Canadell, & Michael R. Raupach. Rapid growt...
Final Thought“Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by  the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in ...
CitationWhen referencing this presentation please use the following citation.  ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Doha COP18. A sli...
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Road to Doha COP18

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Road to Doha is a summary of preparations for COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC.

and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which

will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.

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  • http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/08/3-key-issues-watch-during-bangkok-climate-talks
  • In what was described by UNFCCC Executive Secretary Figueres as a “roll up your sleeves and work session” delegates dug into substantive issues.
  • Road to Doha COP18

    1. 1. Kyoto and Beyond ROAD TO DOHA The 10th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate changewww.isciences.com November 16, 2012
    2. 2. IntroductionKyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving internationalclimate treaty process that began with the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.Road to Doha is a summary of preparations for COP18, the 18th session of theConference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of theParties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which will be heldNov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar. Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:  2008 Kyoto and Beyond  2011 Report on Cancun COP16  2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update  2011 Road to Durban COP17  2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15  2012 Report on Durban COP17  2010 Road to Cancun COP16  2012 Road to Rio+20  2012 Report on Rio+20 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 2
    3. 3. Contents Historical Background Conference Overview Multilateral Process Issues & Positions Possible OutcomesThis presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 3
    4. 4. Background: Timeline 1997 Kyoto Protocol 1992 adopted 2001 2007 UN Framework IPCC 3rd IPCC 4th Convention on Assessment Report Assessment Report Climate Change 2010 Cancun Agreements 2005 drafted at COP16 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 1995 IPCC 2nd Assessment Report 2011 Durban Platform 1990 adopted at COP17 IPCC 1stAssessment Report 2009 released Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 1999 Sept. 2011 (Image Credit: NASA) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 4
    5. 5. Background: UNFCCC, 1992The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is aninternational climate treaty whose objective is to achieve stabilization ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere.The treaty was drafted at the UN Conference on Environment andDevelopment (the “Earth Summit”) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1992. (Image Credit: UNFCCC)Called a “framework convention,” it is a starting point. Though it sets no mandatoryGHG limits or enforcement mechanisms, it provides for updates (“protocols“) to do so.The UNFCCC entered into force in 1994 and convenes an annual “Conference of theParties” (COP) for its 195 members to assess progress. “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments …is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” – Article 2, UNFCCC 1992 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 5
    6. 6. Background: UNFCCC, Annex PartiesThe Convention divides countries into three groups according to differingcommitments. Annex I Parties: developed countries required to reduce ANNEX I COUNTRIES emissions. Industrialized countries who were members of Australia Liechtenstein Austria Lithuania the OECD* in 1992, plus countries with economies in Belarus Luxembourg Belgium Malta transition (EIT). Bulgaria Monaco Canada Netherlands Annex II Parties: developed countries required to provide Croatia Czech Republic New Zeeland Norway financial resources and technology transfer to developing Denmark Poland Estonia Portugal countries and to EIT countries for emissions reductions. European Union Romania Finland Russian Federation Includes Annex I, but not EIT countries. France Slovakia Germany Slovenia Non-Annex I Parties: developing countries. The Convention Greece Hungary Spain Sweden also recognizes the needs of certain groups of developing Iceland Ireland Switzerland Turkey countries who are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts Italy Ukraine Japan United Kingdom of climate change and to economic impacts of climate Latvia United States change response measures. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 6* Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
    7. 7. Background: COP3 Kyoto, 1997The UNFCCC’s COP3 produced the Kyoto Protocol (KP), a legally bindingaddition that assigns national limits for GHG emissions. The KP regulates six GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Annex I countries agreed to reduce emissions an average of 5% below 1990; Non-Annex countries are not bound; targets vary by country. International aviation and shipping are exempt. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) The UNFCCC created national inventories of emissions/removals to establish 1990 benchmarks. To assess progress Annex I countries provide regular inventory updates. The KP is binding but with no severe penalty for noncompliance. It opened for signatures in 1997, entered into force in 2005, has 193 Parties; 1st commitment period is 2008-2012. The US did not ratify the KP, China and India (Non-Annex nations with high emissions) are not bound by it, Canada has withdrawn, and Russia and Japan may not commit beyond 2012. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 7
    8. 8. Background: COPs 15 & 16Recent COPs have not engendered confidence in the ability of the multilateralprocess to improve the global emissions pathway in time or at scale.COP15 Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009 failed to establish a new agreementto follow the KP, whose 1st commitment period expires Dec. 31, 2012.Through a last minute, non-conference effort The Copenhagen Accord –unofficial, non-binding and voluntary – was drafted, establishing a 2 Ctarget for capping global temperature increase.COP16 Cancun, Mexico, 2010 also failed to resolve the future of the KP.Still, the Cancun Agreements included work on: Green Climate Fund;REDD+; Measurement, Reporting, and Verification; Incorporation of theCopenhagen Accord; & Adaptation Framework. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 8
    9. 9. Background: A Milestone in 2011?COP17 in Durban, South Africa proposed a 2nd KP period and broke new groundby creating a roadmap for a post-KP treaty that will require commitments fromboth developed and developing nations.“Also decides to launch a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome withlegal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties …” – Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, 2011The Durban Platform reinterpreted the UNFCC’s (Image Credit: UNFCCC)“common but differentiated responsibilities” “The Parties should protect the climate system …on the basis of equity(CBDR) principle by emphasizing common and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developedresponsibilities. country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.” – UNFCCC Article 3, Paragraph 1, 1992This change may encourage influential US engagement by requiring commitments frompreviously exempt nations whose emissions are substantial, such as China and India. However, the thorny details of this new leveling must be advanced in Doha, and the issues of respective capabilities and historical responsibility remain divisive. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 9
    10. 10. Overview: COP18 Doha 2012COP18 will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.The 2012 meeting is the 18th Conference of the Parties to theUNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Partiesserving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The Conference will be hosted by Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, President-Designate of COP18/CMP8* and ChristianaFigueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Al-Attiyah isDirector of Qatar’s Administrative Control and TransparencyAuthority. More than 17,000 people are expected, representing 195 nations and more than 5,000 observer organizations. * Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 10
    11. 11. Overview: COP18 ObjectivesCOP18’s primary objectives are to finalize the extended KP, close the LCA, andcreate an all-inclusive new treaty from the directive of the Durban Platform.  Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules.  Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the AWG-LCA (Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) under the Bali Action Plan* and retire the LCA in Doha.  Create a new treaty. Translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. * More about the Bali Action Plan http://unfccc.int/meetings/bali_dec_2007/meeting/6319.php Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 11
    12. 12. Overview: Qatar’s Leadership Hosting a climate conference in the heart of the oil- producing Gulf will test Qatar’s leadership and commitment to the issues. Qatar has the highest per-capita CO2 emissions in the world*, almost double the next-highest (Kuwait), and three times the US. COP18 President al-Attiyah has been prominent in Qatar’s energy industry for 30 years and served as (Image Credit: Courtesy of State of Qatar, http://www.cop18.qa) Chairman of Qatar Petroleum, the state-owned company which operates all of Qatar’s oil and gas QATAR FACTS**Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, President COP 18 activities.  2nd highest per-capita income country, (Image Credit: UNFCCC) lowest unemployment  oil/gas 50% of GDP, 85% of export Qatar could improve its climate leadership by making a earnings, 70% of government revenues  oil reserves of 25 billion, enabling output mitigation pledge and persuading other Arab nations to for 57 years  natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic pledge. meters, 3rd largest & 13% of world total * World Bank **World Factbook 2012 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 12
    13. 13. Overview: Qatar’s ReadinessThe wealthy nation of Qatar is not lacking in resources to comfortably hostCOP18.The Conference venue is Qatar National Convention (Image Credit: Qatar Foundation)Centre (QNCC), a gold LEED-certified project whosefacade was inspired by the Sidra tree, a traditionalQatari meeting place for scholars and poets. (Image Credit: Qatar National Convention Centre)To raise environmental awareness mosques will hostlectures on the environment, energy, and climate change. QNCC FACTS  3 levels  40,000 square meters of exhibition space  2,300 seat theatreQatar has increasingly positioned itself as a mediating force  three other auditoriums in the Middle East and has hosted global summits on  57 meeting rooms green technologies for water saving,economic, technological, and trade issues. energy efficiency, indoor environment quality, solar panels These changes are part of Qatar’s stated ambition to move from a carbon economy to a knowledge economy. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 13
    14. 14. Process: UN PreparationsThe UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP18 involves manyinterconnected UN bodies and working groups. (Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/ 6241.php) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 14
    15. 15. Process: Pre-COP Meeting, BonnThe May 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference was tense and unproductive,challenged by a heavy workload and bickering over procedural issues.Delegates were charged with the onerous tasks of: “If this slow pace of negotiations continues ... it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban ensuring a smooth transition between KP periods; package...We are very concerned that the spirit of aligning remaining workflows with new directives; cooperation that prevailed in Durban has not carried over into this session.” Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen, interpreting the constructively ambiguous EU delegate language of the Durban Platform.Discussions were mired in lengthy bickering over agendas and election of officers, someunresolved until the last day. Dissention between and within negotiating blocs, as well as the formation of a new bloc, added to the unrest and reflected the changing dynamics in the 20 years since UNFCCC principles were forged. Lack of progress in Bonn necessitated an additional meeting to convene in Bangkok, presenting a financial challenge for UN resources. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 15
    16. 16. Process: Pre-COP Meeting, BangkokThe informal additional session in Bangkok Aug. 30-Sept. 5, though confusingat times, ultimately eased tensions from Bonn and put negotiations on track.Legal transition to a 2nd KP period* requires an amendment and ratification. Optionswere discussed that may enable countries to participate while awaiting ratification.Plans for resolving elements under the LCA** were divided, withdeveloped countries contending that issues have been concludedor integrated while developing countries disagreed. UN Building, Thailand (Image Credit: United Nations Thailand)Two Durban Platform*** work streams established in Bonn were initiated in Bangkok:enhancing mitigation ambition pre-2020, and the post-2020 regime. “Universality ofapplication,” said some, should not become “uniformity of application.” By the end of the session most parties agreed that some progress had been made on all three tracks. * AWG-KP, Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; **AWG-LCA, Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ***ADP, Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 16
    17. 17. Process: Conference ScheduleThe 12-day gathering at COP18 in Doha includes meetings of CMP, SBI,SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, and ADP. SCHEDULE OF MEETINGSCMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of SESSION DATE AGENDA the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol COP 18 26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012 FCCC/CP/2012/1SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation CMP 8 26 Nov – 7 Dec 2012 FCCC/KP/CMP/2012/1SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice SBI 37 26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012 FCCC/SBI/2012/16AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol SBSTA 37 26 Nov – 1 Dec 2012 FCCC/SBSTA/2012/3AWG-LCA – Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term AWG-KP 17-2 27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 AWGKP/2012/AGENDA Cooperative Action under the Convention AWG-LCA 15-2 27 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 AWGLCA/2012/AGENDAADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action ADP 1-2 28 Nov - 7 Dec 2012 ADP/2012/AGENDA (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 17
    18. 18. Issues: KP2, TransitionEnsuring a smooth transition to the KP 2nd commitment period at this late datewill be challenging, with many details yet to be resolved.Ratification. Legal transition to a 2nd period Jan. 1, 2013requires an amendment to the KP. Without enough time forcountries to ratify, parties may be encouraged to hastily applythe amendment “provisionally,” if constitutionally possible,pending full ratification.Duration. The EU favors an 8-yr period (2013-2020) in line withtheir own targets for 2020. Developing countries are pushingfor 5 years (2013-2017), fearing a longer period will only delayaction by major emitters. Players. Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine may join KP2. Japan and Russia have opted out. * See also Possible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendments Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 18
    19. 19. Issues: KP2, “Hot Air”The “hot air” details of the 2nd KP period – new emissions targets and carry-over of surplus carbon credits – must also be resolved in Doha.Emissions targets. The IPCC* recommends a 25-40% reductionby 2020* for developed countries. (As in KP1, developingnations make nonbinding pledges.) The EU might jump from20% to 30%, but not alone. To increase ambition parties may beallowed to raise targets mid-way through KP2.Carbon credits. Under KP1 countries beating their target cansell excess units (AAUs**). Doha must reconcile surplus AAUsfrom KP1 to KP2. Credit carry-over could flood the market andsuppress ambition. No carry-over could penalize achievement. Flexibility mechanisms. Eligibility rules must be set for access to mechanisms like the CDM***. Access granted if: Joined KP1? Joined KP2? All parties to UNFCCC? * IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; By 2020 – compared to 1990 levels ** AAU–assigned amount unit ***CDM–Clean Development Mechanism Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 19
    20. 20. Issues: LCAThe Durban Platform stipulates that the LCA* be retired at COP18, assumingits work is concluded or successfully transitioned.The LCA advances goals established by the Bali Action Plan(2007) and encompasses over 55 agenda items on financing;monitoring, reporting, and verifying; equity; intellectualproperty rights; and increasing ambition in line with science.The EU and US maintain that most issues have been resolved orcan be transitioned to permanent UN subsidiary bodies, whilethe LDCs** and China argue that this would be a prematureand ineffective dispatch. Doha must successfully resolve this impasse before negotiations can move on to productive discussion of the post-Kyoto treaty. * LCA - Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention ** LDCs – Least Developed Countries Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 20
    21. 21. Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Vision”Negotiators must begin the delicate task of defining how the Durban Platformvision of “applicable to all” will be actualized in a post-2020 treaty.In the new era all parties will have binding targets. Thesmoldering challenge is to reconcile UNFCCC’s 20-yearembedded principle of CBDR* with the contemporarygeopolitical reality of emissions sources.Creative phrasing is being explored that supports universal,though not uniform, application: “dynamic differentiation,”“actionable differentiation,” “graduated levels of (Image Credit: World Resources Institute, 2005)differentiation.” By framing Convention principles as “enduring but dynamic” negotiators might breathe enough flexibility into the new treaty to bind all parties while recognizing different capabilities and responsibilities. “The ADP* airplane has taken off… it may be too early to * CBDR – common but differentiated responsibilities unbuckle our seatbelts because of turbulence ahead, but we are * ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action flying, and the journey has begun.” Delegate in Bangkok, 2012 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 21
    22. 22. Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Ambition”Parties are also charged with increasing the level of ambition to close the gapbetween pledged cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2 C.Raising the level of ambition prior to 2020 is critical "…the fact is that all of those efforts actually represent 60 percent of theto a meaningful outcome post-2020. global effort that needs to be made if we are to keep to a 2 degree (global temperature) rise.” – Christiana Figueres,Options include: UNFCCC Executive Secretary, 2012 Increasing the number of countries making pledges; (Image Credit: UNFCCC) Increasing the ambition of existing pledges, and; Recognizing supplementary actions at sub-national, national and international levels. Accounting and transparency must also be addressed. One study* suggests that national GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC may understate emissions by as much as 25%. * Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledge Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 22
    23. 23. Issues: Too late for 2 ?The UNFCCC’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called forglobal emissions cuts of 25%-40% by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to2 C. “To be quite candid the idea of a 2 C target is largely out of the window.” – Professor Robert Watson, formerPutting the world on a low-carbon diet IPCC chairmeans reducing the annual global emissions “The global economy now needs to cut carbon intensity by 5.1% every year from now to 2050. To give ourselvesbudget to 44 Gigatonnes (GtCO2eq) by 2020 a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate ofto limit warming to +2 C.* decarbonisation. ” – PwC, Nov. 2012 “I am very worried … It is becoming extremely challenging to remain belowThe current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gt.* 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.“ – Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency, 2011***Even if CO2 levels are stabilized, global temperature will continue to increase fordecades.** The likelihood of limiting increase of global average temperature to no more than 2°C is increasingly remote. * GtCO2eq (Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents); WWF, Plugging the Gigatonne Gap. ** http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdf *** http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/; PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC,. Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 23
    24. 24. Outcomes: KP2 as the BridgeRealistically, KP2 is shaping up to be a very rickety bridge to the proposed“superhighway” of a globally inclusive post-KP regime.KP2’s genetic inheritance includes flaws: too few participants; insufficient incentives; no ability to adapt to new conditions in which the developing world will soon overtake industrialized nations in emissions.Still, the Protocol is a useful experiment in prescriptive mechanisms: flexibility in domestic decision-making; (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) market-based policy instruments – emissions trading schemes, project-level trades among Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), and project-level offsets in developing countries used to meet obligations in Annex I countries (CDM). If the KP2 bridge doesn’t collapse in Doha it will have succeeded, if only in providing passage to the new, all-inclusive regime. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 24
    25. 25. Conclusion: Politics & NatureAs always, UN climate negotiations will be influenced by economics, politics,and nature.Lessons from KP will instruct the equity concepts and policy instruments in the post-2020 treaty, perhaps leading to progressive targets based on per capita income, andsector-based new market mechanisms.Complementary coalitions will evolve that augmentUNFCCC’s multinational platform.Barack Obama’s reelection may move US energy policyin a more climate-friendly direction. And, nature willunleash its own incentives through climate-relatedweather events of increasing frequency and intensity. Hurricane Sandy, US East Coast, 2012 (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Watch for ISciences’ post-Doha analysis of COP18 at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 25
    26. 26. SourcesBello, Walden. Sept. 12, 2012. Breaking the Climate Stalemate. Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/walden-bello/breaking-the-climate- stal_b_1873867.htmlCarbon Disclosure Project. 2012. CDP Global 500 Climate Change Report 2012. https://www.cdproject.net/CDPResults/CDP-Global-500-Climate-Change-Report-2012.pdfCameron, Edward and Yamide Dagnet. Sept. 12, 2012. Analysis: Was enough achieved at UN climate talks in Bangkok? RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/analysis-was- enough-achieved-at-un-climate-talks-in-bangkok/Cameron, Edward and Yamide Dagnet. Aug. 30, 2012. 3 Key Issues to Watch During the Bangkok Climate Talks. World Resources Institute, http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/08/3-key-issues-watch-during-bangkok-climate-talksCIA World Factbook. Qatar. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/qa.htmlClimate Action Network Secretariat. Sept. 3, 2012. AAU Elephants. CAN International, http://www.climatenetwork.org/category/wordpress-tag/unepClimate Action Network Secretariat. Sept. 2, 2012. Qatar: Still time to lead. http://climatenetwork.org/category/tags/cop18-hostsEarth Negotiations Bulletin. May 28, 2012. Vol. 12 No. 546 SUMMARY OF THE BONN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE: 14-25 MAY 2012. http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12546e.pdfEarth Negotiations Bulletin. Sept. 8, 2012. Vol. 12 No. 555 SUMMARY OF THE BANGKOK CLIMATE TALKS: 30 AUGUST – 5 SEPTEMBER 2012. http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12555e.pdfEuropean Environment Agency. 2010. Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets in Europe, EEA Report No 7/2010. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/progress-towards-kyoto/at_download/fileFarah, Thayler. Aug. 9, 2012. Ready for Prime Time? The $100 billion Climate Fund. Council on Foreign Relations, http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2012/08/09/guest-post- ready-for-primetime-the-100-billion-climate-fund/Friedman, Lisa, and Climatewire. Sept. 5, 2012. Most Countries Fail to Plan for Cleaner Energy. Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=most-countries-fail-to-plan-for-cleaner-energy&WT.mc_id=SA_DD_20120905Gastelumendi, Jorge and Budi Kuncoro. Sept. 11, 2012. Readiness for climate finance. Jakarta Post, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/09/11/readiness-climate- finance.htmlHarvey, Fiona. May 29, 2011. Worst ever carbon emissions leave climate on the brink. The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon- emissions-nuclearpowerHarvey, Fiona. Oct. 19, 2012. Saudi Arabia reveals plans to be powered entirely by renewable energy. The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/19/saudi-arabia-renewable-energy-oilHohne, Niklas, and Sarah Moltmann. Aug. 24, 2009. Sharing the Effort Under a Global Carbon Budget. WWF and Ecofys. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_ecofys_carbon_budget_final.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Publications and Data > Reports. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#.UCu0A6AsFFwJames, Bonnie. June 5, 2012. Doha to be key step in climate initiative. Gulf Times, http://www.gulf- times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=510265&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 26
    27. 27. SourcesKing, Ed. Sept. 11, 2012. Bangkok 2012: UN climate talks close with ‘unofficial’ draft on Kyoto Protocol 2nd period. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/bangkok-2012-un- climate-talks-close-with-unofficial-draft-on-kyoto-protocol-2nd-period/King, Ed. Sept. 18, 2012. China calls on Qatar to resolve LCA issues at UN climate talks. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/china-calls-on-qatar-to-resolve-lca-issues-at-un- climate-talks/King, Ed. Sept. 24, 2012. Yvo deBoer: Climate change talks need greater clarity. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/yvo-de-boer-climate-change-talks-need-greater-clarity/King, Ed. Sept. 13, 2012. Fatih Birol: Door to 2 degrees could be closed by 2017. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/business/fatih-birol-door-to-2-degrees-could-be-closed-by- 2017/King, Ed. Sept. 12, 2012. UN climate talks: EU negotiator calls for urgent ambition to avoid 2 degrees. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/un-climate-talks-eu-negotiator- calls-for-urgent-ambition-to-avoid-2c-target/Lacy, Stephen. Aug. 23, 2012. Former IPCC Chair Watson Says ’2C Target Is Largely Out Of The Window’. Think Progress/Climate Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/Liu, Coco, and Climatewire. Aug. 24, 2012. China Seeks Mastery of Carbon Capture and Storage. Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=china-seeks-mastery-of-carbon-capture-and-storageMacan-Markar, Marwaan. Sept. 9, 2012. Kyoto Protocol May End With the Year. Interpress Service New Agency, http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/09/kyoto-protocol-may- end-with-the-year/Meinshausen, Malte, Nicolai Meinshausen, William Hare, Sara C. B. Raper, Katja Frieler, Reto Knutti, David J. Frame, Myles R. Allen. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C. Nature 458, 1158-1162 (30 April 2009), doi: 10.1038/nature0817. lhttp://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7242/full/nature08017.htmlMorgan, Jennifer, and Lutz Weischer. Oct. 29, 2012. Two Degrees Clubs: How Small Groups of Countries Can Make a Big Difference on Climate Change. WRI Insights, http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/10/two-degrees-clubs-how-small-groups-countries-can-make-big-difference-climate-changeMurray, James. Sept. 4, 2012. Bangkok: US courts controversy with support for “flexible” climate deal. Business Green, http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2202593/bangkok-us-courts-controversy-with-support-for-flexible-climate-dealNASA Earth Observatory. Arctic Sea Ice. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/sea_ice.phpNew York Times. Dec. 12, 2011. Kyoto Protocol. http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/subjects/k/kyoto_protocol/index.htmlParnell, John. Sept. 21, 2012. Kyoto Protocol: How is the UN’s flagship climate project faring ahead of COP18? RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/kyoto-protocol-how-is- the-uns-flagship-climate-project-faring-ahead-of-cop18/Parnell, John. Oct. 26, 2012. Bangkok 2012 – Oil producers and emerging economies build powerful new alliance at UN climate change talks. RTCC. http://www.rtcc.org/policy/bangkok-2012-%E2%80%93-oil-producers-and-emerging-economies-build-powerful-new-alliance-at-un-climate-change-talks/Parnell, John. Sept. 6, 2012. Bangkok 2012: Talks offer first glimpses of what Kyoto Protocol MK2 might look like. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/bangkok-2012-talks- offer-first-glimpses-of-what-kyoto-protocol-mk2-might-look-like/Parnell, John. Sept. 11, 2012. Bangkok 2012 – Lead EU negotiator Runge-Metzger says a 30% emission reduction target is still possible. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/bangkok-2012-%E2%80%93-door-not-closed-on-30-emission-cut-says-lead-eu-negotiator/Peninsula. Oct. 30, 2012. Imams to raise awareness of environment as COP18 nears. http://thepeninsulaqatar.com/qatar/212571-imams-to-raise-awareness-of- environment-as-cop18-nears.htmlPeoples Movement on Climate Change. Sept. 4, 2012. IBON Climate Updates No.4: Bangkok Climate Change Conference 2012 . http://www.peoplesclimatemovement.net/component/content/article/1/333--ibon-climate-updates-no4-bangkok-climate-change-conference-2012 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 27
    28. 28. SourcesPeters, Glen P, Gregg Marland, Corinne Le Quéré, Thomas Boden, Josep G. Canadell, & Michael R. Raupach. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change 2, 2-4 (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1332. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n1/full/nclimate1332.htmlReuters. Oct. 2, 2012. U.N. climate chief urges greater ambition in Doha. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/02/us-un-climate-idUSBRE89108M20121002Reuters. Oct. 20, 2012. South Korea picked as HQ of new U.N. Green Climate Fund. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/20/us-climate-fund-idUSBRE89J05P20121020Rook, Daniel. Sept. 5, 2012. Global climate talks make headway: UN. PhysOrg, http://phys.org/news/2012-09-global-climate-headway.htmlShankleman, Jessica. Sept. 5, 2012. Bangkok climate talks prep the ground for Doha. Business Green, http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2203025/bangkok- climate-talks-prep-the-ground-for-dohaSkeptical Science. The Critical Decade - Part 3: Implications for Emissions Reductions. http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=785Stern, Todd. Aug. 2, 2012. Remarks at Dartmouth College. US Dept. of State. http://www.state.gov/e/oes/rls/remarks/2012/196004.htmSmith, Tierney. Sept. 14, 2012. Francois Hollande: EU should adopt 40% emissions reduction target by 2030. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/francois-hollande-eu- should-adopt-40-emissions-reduction-target-by-2030/Sydney Morning Herald. Oct. 2, 2012. Brazil hardens line ahead of climate change talks. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/brazil-hardens-line- ahead-of-climate-change-talks-20121002-26w9s.htmlSydney Morning Herald. Sept. 15, 2012. France call for deeper emission cuts. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/france-calls-for-deeper-emission- cuts-20120915-25z24.htmlThird World Network. Sept. 25, 2012. BASIC ministers express expectations for COP18. http://www.twnside.org.sg/title2/climate/info.service/2012/climate20120905.htmTulloch, James. Jan. 16, 2012. Agenda 2012: What Future for Kyoto Protocol? Allianz. http://knowledge.allianz.com/climate/agenda/?1741/climate-change-policy-agenda- 2012-what-future-for-kyoto-protocolUNFCCC. Nov. 16. 2011. National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990–2009. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sbi/eng/09.pdfUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Process > Essential Background > The Convention. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php. Accessed Aug. 21, 2012.Wikipedia. Qatar. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QatarWright, Chris. Sept. 4, 2012. Bangkok 2012 – Confusion reigns at UN climate talks as negotiators prove inflexible over flexibility but agree to disagree. RTCC, http://www.rtcc.org/policy/bangkok-2012-confusion-reigns-at-un-climate-talks-as-negotiators-prove-inflexible-over-flexibility-but-agree-to-disagree/WWF International. Aug. 2010. Plugging the gap. http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_plugging_the_gap_final.pdf Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 28
    29. 29. Final Thought“Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere?” Svante Arrhenius, Swedish scientist, 1896 It has been over 100 years since Arrhenius correctly answered his own question by calculating how changes in the levels of CO2 in our atmosphere could alter surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 29
    30. 30. CitationWhen referencing this presentation please use the following citation. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Doha COP18. A slideshow; 10th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. November 16, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 30
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