Kyoto and Beyond                               Report                                 on                             DOHA ...
IntroductionKyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving internationalclimate treaty process that began w...
Contents                      Overview                      Outcomes                      Climate Science                 ...
Overview: Timeline                                      1997                                  Kyoto Protocol             1...
Overview: Global Conditions    Increasingly, the global community has issued urgent warnings about the need    for action ...
Overview: ObjectivesCOP18’s objectives were to: finalize KP2, close the Long-term Cooperative Action strand, and advance d...
Outcomes: Doha Climate GatewayThe term "Doha Climate Gateway,” coined by COP18 President al-Attiyah,refers to the package ...
Outcomes: KP2 Transition“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If nothere, then where?”Before breathing last gasps o...
Outcomes: KP2 “Hot Air”Agreement was reached on KP2’s “hot air” details – new emissions targets andcarry-over of surplus c...
Outcomes: KP2 DissentOne of the most vocal dissents at COP18 came from Russia over restrictions oncarbon credit carry-over...
Outcomes: LCA & Bali Action PlanNegotiators in Doha retired the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term CooperativeAction under ...
Outcomes: Shared VisionCOP18 asserted the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities principle(CBDR) as Parties “urgently ...
Outcomes: MitigationMuch of the oversight responsibility for mitigation efforts was transferredto UNFCCC subsidiary bodies...
Outcomes: REDD+Little progress was made on REDD+ at COP18. Negotiationscentered on results-based finance.REDD+* donor coun...
Outcomes: MarketsTasks related to the use of markets and of “new market mechanisms” inmitigation were passed on to the UNF...
Outcomes: AdaptationThe COP made decisions on two important adaptation matters: NationalAdaptation Plans and the Adaptatio...
Outcomes: “Loss & Damage”One surprise at Doha was the emergence of a strong movement to articulatethe UNFCCC’s role in add...
Outcomes: TechnologyDoha did not advance the conversation on technology transfer or thecontentious issue of intellectual p...
Outcomes: FinancesAt COP18 countries were urged to scale up climate finance since many have notbegun to fulfill commitment...
Outcomes: 2020 TreatyParties agreed to work speedily toward a universal climate change agreementcovering all countries fro...
Science: Emerging IssuesBut while the multilateral negotiating process slowly grinds on, climatescience supports more aggr...
Science: Balancing the BudgetMany scientists believe that 2C is too lenient a target, and that the window ofopportunity t...
Ahead: COP19 WarsawThe UNFCCC will reconvene at COP19 in Warsaw, Poland Nov.11-22, 2013.Poland, like Qatar, has work to do...
SourcesBeyer, Jeff. Jan. 23. 2013. Doha: It kept the show on the road – but only just . Carbon Trust. http://www.carbontru...
SourcesKrishnan, N. R. Jan. 2, 2013. Doha climate talks not a failure. The Hindu Business Line. http://www.thehindubusines...
SourcesStewart, Heather, and Larry Elliot. Jan. 26, 2013. Nicholas Stern: I got it wrong on climate change – its far, far ...
Final Thought“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?”                             Naderev Sa...
CitationWhen referencing this presentation please use the following citation.  ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Doha COP18. A s...
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Report on Doha is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which was held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.

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Report on Doha COP18 from ISciences

  1. 1. Kyoto and Beyond Report on DOHA COP18 The 11th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate changewww.isciences.com April 5, 2013
  2. 2. IntroductionKyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving internationalclimate treaty process that began with the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.Report on Doha is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP18, the 18thsession of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of theConference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol,which was held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar. Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:  2008 Kyoto and Beyond  2011 Road to Durban COP17  2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update  2012 Report on Durban COP17  2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15  2012 Road to Rio+20  2010 Road to Cancun COP16  2012 Report on Rio+20  2011 Report on Cancun COP16  2012 Road to Doha COP18 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 2
  3. 3. Contents Overview Outcomes Climate Science Looking AheadThis presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 3
  4. 4. Overview: Timeline 1997 Kyoto Protocol 1992 adopted 2001 2007 UN Framework IPCC 3rd IPCC 4th Convention on Assessment Report Assessment Report Climate Change 2010 Cancun Agreements 2005 drafted at COP16 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 1995 IPCC 2nd Assessment Report 2011 Durban Platform 1990 adopted at COP17 IPCC 1stAssessment Report 2009 released Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2012 Doha Climate Arctic Sea Ice Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 1999 Sept. 2011 Gateway adopted at COP18 (Image Credit: NASA) Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 4
  5. 5. Overview: Global Conditions Increasingly, the global community has issued urgent warnings about the need for action on climate change. “We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.” – US President Barack Obama, inaugural speech Jan. 21, 2013(Image Credit: Center for American Progress “We’re on track for a 4°C warmer world marked by extreme heat-waves, declining global Action Fund via Wikimedia Commons) food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise.”– World Bank and Potsdam Institute Report, Nov. 2012, Turn Down the Heat "I got it wrong on climate change - its far, far worse … Do we want to play Russian roulette with two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential … What were talking about then is extended world war.“ – Lord Nicholas Stern, economist, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013 “Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled” – Christine Lagarde, managing director International Monetary Fund at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013 "There will be water and food fights everywhere.“ - Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013 Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 5
  6. 6. Overview: ObjectivesCOP18’s objectives were to: finalize KP2, close the Long-term Cooperative Action strand, and advance discussionson the new post-KP 2020 treaty. Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules. (AWG-KP*) Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the Bali Action Plan and retire the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action. (AWG-LCA*) Create a new treaty. Begin a process to translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. (ADP*) At its conclusion COP18 closed the working groups on the Kyoto Protocol and on Long-term Cooperative Action. Henceforth, the Durban Platform will be the single negotiating forum. * AWG-KP Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 6
  7. 7. Outcomes: Doha Climate GatewayThe term "Doha Climate Gateway,” coined by COP18 President al-Attiyah,refers to the package of outcomes from COP18 in Doha. "Doha has opened up a new gateway to biggerAfter 13 lackluster yet contentious days, a package of ambition and to greater action - the Doha Climatedecisions called the “Doha Climate Gateway” was delivered, Gateway” – Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah,accompanied by sighs of relief but no fanfare. President COP 18 (Image Credit: UNFCCC)Al-Attiyah, whose advisors included oil company lawyers, eventually enlisted the help ofBrazil’s Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado, a force at Rio+20, and South Africa’s MaiteNkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President. In the final plenary, Al-Attiya quickly gaveled through all the decisions and overruled a serious objection from Russia on carry-over of surplus allowances in the Kyoto Protocol. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 7
  8. 8. Outcomes: KP2 Transition“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If nothere, then where?”Before breathing last gasps of life into the Kyoto Protocol byadopting terms of its 2nd period, negotiators witnessed thisimpassioned plea from Philippine representative Naderev Sano. (Image and Video Credit: DavidLeeWilsonYT; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY)Duration. The 2nd KP commitment period is 8 years, Jan. 1, 2013-Dec. 31, 2020.Ratification. Parties may provisionally apply the amendment , pending its entry into force through national ratification.Players. Japan, New Zealand, and Russia will not participate. Canada left the Protocol in 2011. Whats left will have limited impact as the KP now represents only 15% of carbon emissions. Global reactions included both relief that the troubled Protocol would bridge the gap until a 2020 treaty and disappointment that the Protocol would never fulfill the destiny envisioned at its inception. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 8
  9. 9. Outcomes: KP2 “Hot Air”Agreement was reached on KP2’s “hot air” details – new emissions targets andcarry-over of surplus carbon credits. Emissions targets. KP2 Annex I parties committed to emissions reductions averaging 18% below 1990 levels and will review commitments by 2014 to increase ambition to at least 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020. Flexibility mechanisms. KP2 Annex I parties will be able to trade carbon credits generated by flexibility mechanisms. Non-KP2 parties (Canada, Japan, Russia, New Zealand) may participate in CDM* projects but cannot acquire or transfer credits. Carbon credits. KP2 parties are allowed limited, conditional carry-over of surplus credits from KP1. Credits will be held in a new account (“Previous Period Surplus Reserve”) and can be traded if a country exceeds its new target and if that target is more ambitious than KP1. The number of credits countries can trade is limited. Currently, the new targets trail significantly behind the IPCC’s recommendation of 25%-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2C. * CDM-Clean Development Mechanism Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 9
  10. 10. Outcomes: KP2 DissentOne of the most vocal dissents at COP18 came from Russia over restrictions oncarbon credit carry-over. Russia BelarusFor some time now Russia has declared that it will not Ukraine Kazakhstanparticipate in KP2, but now may take other countries with it.Russia and several other Eastern European countries hadamassed a huge cache of carbon credits from closure of state-owned industrial enterprises and fought to retain these.A month after COP18, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan met to discuss an amendmentto the KP that requires industrialized countries to not exceed 2008-10 emissions levels. Theycontend that they should not be required to meet the goal as they continue to industrialize. There is speculation that Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan could refuse to ratify the extension of Kyoto. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 10
  11. 11. Outcomes: LCA & Bali Action PlanNegotiators in Doha retired the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term CooperativeAction under the Bali Action Plan (AWG-LCA) and channeled remaining issues intoongoing UNFCCC subsidiary bodies. Issues:  Shared Vision  Mitigation  Adaptation  Loss and Damage  Technology  Finances  Economies in Transition Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Dec. 8, 2012 Doha’s actions on these issues were rendered in the outcome document “Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan.” Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 11
  12. 12. Outcomes: Shared VisionCOP18 asserted the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities principle(CBDR) as Parties “urgently work towards the deep reduction in globalgreenhouse gas emissions.”This “shared vision” includes attainment of global peaking of GHG emissions as soon aspossible, consistent with science and the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section I, Dec. 8, 2012 COP18 reaffirmed that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and that their efforts will be based on “respective capabilities.” Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 12
  13. 13. Outcomes: MitigationMuch of the oversight responsibility for mitigation efforts was transferredto UNFCCC subsidiary bodies. Mitigation outcomes for developed countries focused on ambition and targets.  Work to increase ambitions in line with the IPCC AR4*;  Clarify emissions targets through a work program to be established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA*); countries must submit clarification of their targets by Mar. 25, 2013. NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions Mitigation outcomes for developing countries focused on Introduced as a new mechanism in the Bali Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). Action Plan 2007, NAMAs recognize individual country actions defined on the  Advance the understanding of NAMAs through a work program to be basis of economic and social development established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI*); needs, and thereby make them eligible for international support in the form of  The Secretariat will organize regional technical workshops on NAMAs. capacity building, technology and financial assistance. The NAMA Partnership – a coalition of UN agencies, development banks, and bilateral organizations - was launched on the sidelines of COP18 to share information and coordinate NAMA activities * IPCC AR4-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 13
  14. 14. Outcomes: REDD+Little progress was made on REDD+ at COP18. Negotiationscentered on results-based finance.REDD+* donor countries, led by Norway, asserted that paymentsshould be tied to quantified emissions reductions, and urged Mangrove Forestindependent verification. Credit: Arunchristopher via Wikimedia CommonsDeveloping countries, led by Brazil, want results-based finance to include social andenvironmental benefits, and argue that they are already required to submit GHGinventories to receive climate finance.COP18 concluded with no agreement on the issues. The SBSTA* and SBI* will initiate aprocess to improve the coordination and support for REDD+ activities. Some believe that REDD+ will move in the direction of forest carbon trading. * REDD+- Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 14
  15. 15. Outcomes: MarketsTasks related to the use of markets and of “new market mechanisms” inmitigation were passed on to the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific andTechnical Advice.COP18 requested the SBSTA* to conduct separate work programs to elaborate aframework for using markets and non-market approaches, and to establishprocedures for “new market-based mechanisms.” New Market MechanismsNew market mechanisms might cover a whole sector in Building on the success of the Clean Development Mechanism, the UNFCCCa developing country rather than individual projects as intends to establish new market-based instruments within the international climatethe CDM* does. policy framework that would generate carbon credits which can be used to meet part of developed countries targets.Concepts include sectoral trading (cap-and-trade) andsectoral crediting (a baseline-and-credit approach). Parties also agreed to recognize mechanisms established outside the UNFCCC, such as national or bilateral offsets. * SBSTA - SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; CDM-Clean Development Mechanism Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 15
  16. 16. Outcomes: AdaptationThe COP made decisions on two important adaptation matters: NationalAdaptation Plans and the Adaptation Committee.COP18 approved guidelines to help Parties develop NationalAdaptation Plans (NAPs) – long-term, flexible, and iterativeplanning processes to help build adaptive capacity and respond toclimate change. Monsoon floods in Ambala, India 2010 Credit: Harsh Mangal via Wikimedia CommonsThis is a departure from National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) – short-term,highly project-based, limited to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Both LDCs and non-LDC developing countries will receive funding to develop NAPs from the GlobalEnvironment Facility. A 3-yr work plan of the Adaptation Committee to unite various adaptation workstreams under the UNFCCC and outside the Convention was also approved. The Adaptation Committee will hold an annual forum in conjunction with the COP to improve global exchange on adaptation. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 16
  17. 17. Outcomes: “Loss & Damage”One surprise at Doha was the emergence of a strong movement to articulatethe UNFCCC’s role in addressing loss and damage associated with climatechange.Under pressure from LDCs* and island statesParties agreed to establish institutionalarrangements to help vulnerable, developingcountries deal with losses and damages from Draft decision-/CP.18, Approaches to address loss and damage, para 9climate change.This could provide means to address rehabilitation, reconstruction, and compensation fordamages from extreme and slow-onset weather events such as storms, heavy rainfall,hurricanes, flooding, and drought. However, interpreting this declaration into action wasleft to future COPs. Some developed countries voiced objections to any articulation in the loss and damage concept that implied liability by countries with historically high GHG emissions. *LDCs-Least Developed Countries Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 17
  18. 18. Outcomes: TechnologyDoha did not advance the conversation on technology transfer or thecontentious issue of intellectual property rights.The UNFCCC has evolved several conduits for development and transfer of technology.*In Doha Parties agreed to clarify at upcoming COPs the relationships between thesebodies, particularly between the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the ClimateTechnology and Network Centre (CTNC). UNEP was selected to lead a consortium anddevelop the CTCN.The contentious issue of intellectual property rights (IPR), one of the most controversialissues in Doha, generated spirited discussion. Developing countries supported furtherconsideration of IPR, while developed countries were opposed. There is no reference to IPR in the outcome document, rendering IPR’s relation to technology transfer in the UNFCCC decidedly vague. Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section IV, Dec. 8, 2012 * See: UNFCCC Technology Work, http://unfccc.int/focus/technology/items/7000.php Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 18
  19. 19. Outcomes: FinancesAt COP18 countries were urged to scale up climate finance since many have notbegun to fulfill commitments made in Copenhagen to mobilize US$100 billionper year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation.The Doha agreement called on them to pledge a portion specificallyfor 2013-15 to prevent a gap between the “fast start finance”period (which ended in 2012) and 2020.Germany, UK, France, Denmark, Sweden and the Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section V, Dec. 8, 2012EU Commission pledged $10 billion USD up to 2015.Economies-in-Transition (EITs) will be allowed some flexibility until 2020 with regard tothe provision of financial resources to non-Annex I parties. EITs are Parties officiallyrecognized by the UNFCCC as transitioning to a market economy. Recognizing that financial tracking has been problematic, Doha scheduled accounting issues to be addressed by 2014. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 19
  20. 20. Outcomes: 2020 TreatyParties agreed to work speedily toward a universal climate change agreementcovering all countries from 2020 to be adopted by 2015, and to scale up effortsbefore 2020 beyond existing emissions reduction pledges.Discussions on the Durban Platform will proceed under twoworkstreams: pre-2020 and post-2020.  Meetings and workshops will be held in 2013 to prepare the new agreement. Image: UN Flags Credit: Aotearoa via Wikimedia Commons  Proposals to enhance ambition must be submitted by governments by Mar. 1, 2013.  To mobilize political will world leaders will convene in 2014 at the request of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.  Elements of a negotiating text must be available at the end of 2014 and a draft text must be available before May 2015. To work speedily toward a new treaty, a second session of the ADP* may be held Apr. 29-May 3, 2013 in Bonn, Germany if funding is available. * ADP-Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 20
  21. 21. Science: Emerging IssuesBut while the multilateral negotiating process slowly grinds on, climatescience supports more aggressive efforts.Current KP2 emissions reduction commitments from Annex I countries average 18%*. Anew study** suggests that Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions by 50% for a“medium chance of achieving 2C.” “One of the main findings is that new BAU emission projectionsAccording to the report, the contribution to the global CO2 have led to about 2.5 GtCO2eqbudget reduction from non-Annex I countries is tracking in higher emission levels expected from pledges by non-Annex Ifigures low enough to necessitate a significant jump in the countries…This implies that for a medium chance of achieving 2 C,target for Annex I countries. Annex I countries would need to reduce its emissions by about 50% below 1990 levels by 2020” Though COP18 articulated that Annex I commitments - Michel G. J. den Elzen, et al, Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of must increase to 25-40% by 2020, as recommended in the the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands , 2013 IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, this may not be enough. * average of 18% emission reduction by Annex I parties below 1990 levels by 2020; BAU-business as usual ** den Elzen, Michel G.J., Andries F. Hof,Mark Roelfsema. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Department of Climate, Air and Energy, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 21
  22. 22. Science: Balancing the BudgetMany scientists believe that 2C is too lenient a target, and that the window ofopportunity to constrain that trajectory is quickly closing.Current scientific estimates place our global “carbon budget” atno more than about 565 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 to still have areasonable chance of staying within the 2C target.Average global temperature is up 0.8C, and models indicate that “With a twenty-year delay, youeven if CO2 levels stabilized immediately the increase would continue. can throw as much money as you have at the problem, and the best outcome you can get is a fifty-fifty chance of keeping temperatureAt current rates (2011 emissions were 31.6 gigatons, up 3.2% from rise below two degrees.” – Keywan Riahi, IIASA* energy program2010) we are projected to expend that budget by 2024. leader Tough targets could force sequestration of 80% of an estimated 2,795 gigatons of untapped fossil fuel reserves. * IIASA – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 22
  23. 23. Ahead: COP19 WarsawThe UNFCCC will reconvene at COP19 in Warsaw, Poland Nov.11-22, 2013.Poland, like Qatar, has work to do to convince the global forum that it canlead an effective climate summit. During COP18 Poland argued overcarbon credits and held the EU back from greater emissions cuts.The larger issue is whether the UNFCCC’s lumbering and What’s Next? Nov. 11-22, 2013: COP19 Warsaw,beleaguered brand can produce effective multilateral 19th Session of the Conference of theaction. Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 9th Session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to theFailing that, will any strong bi- or tri-lateral coalitions Kyoto Protocolemerge in time? Watch for future installments of ISciences’ “Kyoto and Beyond” series at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 23
  24. 24. SourcesBeyer, Jeff. Jan. 23. 2013. Doha: It kept the show on the road – but only just . Carbon Trust. http://www.carbontrust.com/news/2013/01/doha-it-kept-the-show-on-the- road-but-only-justBusiness Green. Jan. 29, 2013. Russian row over Kyoto extension rumbles on . The Green Business Guide. http://www.greenbusinessguide.co.za/russian-row-over-kyoto- extension-rumbles-on/Carbon Protocol of SA. COP18 at Doha. http://www.carbonprotocol.org/news-announcements/246-cop18-at-doha.htmlCarus, Felicity. Nov. 12, 2012. American Energy Renaissance Redraws Global Energy Map: IEA . AolEnergy. http://energy.aol.com/2012/11/12/american-energy- renaissance-redraws-global-energy-map-iea/den Elzen , Michel G.J. , Andries F. Hof, Mark Roelfsema. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020. Energy Policy, Volume 56, May 2013, Pages 633–643. Science Direct. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513000426Doebbler., Curtis F.J. Dec. 17, 2012. What Did Doha Conference Do for Efforts to Combat Climate Change? Al-Jazeerah. http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20Editorials/2012/December/17%20o/What%20Did%20Doha%20Conference%20Do%20for%20Efforts%20to%20Combat%20 Climate%20Change%20By%20Curtis%20FJ%20Doebbler.htmGruen, Gianna. Jan. 4, 2013. Act now – or you’re (perhaps) wasting money. The Global Ideas Blog. Deutsche Welle. http://blogs.dw.de/globalideas/tag/keywan-riahi/Hanley, Charles J. Feb. 21, 2009. Lord Nicholas Stern Paints Dire Climate Change Scenario: Mass Migrations, Extended World War. Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/21/lord-nicholas-stern-paint_n_168865.htmlIISD Reporting Services. Dec. 5, 2012. NAMA Partnership Launched at COP 18. International Institute for Sustainable Development. http://climate-l.iisd.org/news/nama- partnership-launched-at-cop-18/InsideClimate News. Feb. 17, 2013. 11 years left to cut carbon output, report finds.HeraldNet.com. http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20130217/NEWS02/702179903/0/SPORTS10International Energy Agency. May 24, 2012. Global carbon-dioxide emissions increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to record high. http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2012/may/name,27216,en.htmlInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Jan. 6, 2013. Nature: Limiting Climate Change Will Become Much Harder ‘And More Expensive If Action Is Not Taken Soon’. Climate Progress, Think Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/01/06/1394421/nature-limiting-climate-change-will-become-much-harder-and- more-expensive-if-action-is-not-taken-soon/Jagger, Bianca. Dec. 11, 2012. COP 18 Failed to Turn Down the Heat. Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bianca-jagger/cop18-failed-to-turn-down- heat_b_2278758.htmlKhor, Martin. Jan 12, 2013. Doha 2012: A Climate Conference of Low Ambitions. Economic and Political Weekly, VOL XLVIII NO 2. http://www.epw.in/system/files/CM_XLVIII_2_120113_Martin_Khor.pdf Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 24
  25. 25. SourcesKrishnan, N. R. Jan. 2, 2013. Doha climate talks not a failure. The Hindu Business Line. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/doha-climate-talks-not-a- failure/article4265776.eceLang, Chris. Jan. 24, 2012. FERN on REDD at COP18, Doha: “A proliferation of work programmes, processes and technical issues. Redd Monitor.org. http://www.redd- monitor.org/2013/01/24/fern-on-redd-at-cop18-doha-a-proliferation-of-work-programmes-processes-and-technical-issues/Levin, Kelly. Mar. 7, 2013. Developed Nations Must Cut Emissions In Half By 2020, Says New Study. Climate Progress via WRI Insights. Think Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/07/1685881/developed-nations-must-cut-emissions-in-half-by-2020-says-new-study/McKibben, Bill. July 19, 2012. Global Warmings Terrifying New Math. Rolling Stone. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math- 20120719Meinshausen, Malte, et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C. Nature. Vol 458, 30 April 2009, doi:10.1038/nature08017. Macmillan Publishers Limited. https://www1.ethz.ch/iac/people/knuttir/papers/meinshausen09nat.pdfMorgan, Jennifer. Dec. 14, 2012. Reflections on COP 18 in Doha: Negotiators Made Only Incremental Progress. WRI Insights. http://insights.wri.org/news/2012/12/reflections-cop-18-doha-negotiators-made-only-incremental-progressMoss, Catriona and Michelle Kovacevic. Dec. 4, 2012. “The honeymoon for REDD+ is over”: consensus not yet reached in Doha on MRV, finance. Forest News. http://blog.cifor.org/12941/the-honeymoon-for-redd-is-over-consensus-not-yet-reached-in-doha-on-mrv-finance/#.UV71XUpQoovNelsen, Arthur. Nov. 16, 2012. US considers shifting climate negotiations away from UN track. EurActiv, part of the Guardian Environment Network. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/16/us-considers-climate-negotiations-unParnell, John. Dec. 13, 2012. Belarus threaten to leave Kyoto Protocol after Doha controversy. Responding to Climate Change. http://www.rtcc.org/kyoto-protocol-faces- more-walkouts-after-doha-controversy/Perspectives Climate Change. 2012. Perspectives your partner for pioneering new market based instruments. Perspectives Climate Change. http://www.perspectives.cc/index.php?id=687PWC. Feb, 2013. Global Green Policy Insights (Feb 2013). http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/tax/newsletters/global-green-policy-insights/february-2013.jhtmlRomm, Joe. Feb. 5, 2013. IMF Chief: ‘Unless We Take Action On Climate Change, Future Generations Will Be Roasted, Toasted, Fried And Grilled’. Think Progress. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/05/1546471/imf-chief-unless-we-take-action-on-climate-change-future-generations-will-be-roasted-toasted-fried-and- grilled/Schueneman, Tom. Dec. 13, 2012. The Doha Climate Gateway: Stumbling Toward a Global Agreement at COP 18. The Energy Collective. http://theenergycollective.com/globalwarmingisreal/155996/doha-climate-gateway-stumbling-toward-global-agreementSileryte, Inga Dec, 31m 2912, Doha Conference. Moving Towards Stagnation? Sustainable Business Forum. http://sustainablebusinessforum.com/sbtoolkit/75406/doha- climate-change-conference-moving-towards-stagnation Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 25
  26. 26. SourcesStewart, Heather, and Larry Elliot. Jan. 26, 2013. Nicholas Stern: I got it wrong on climate change – its far, far worse‘. Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/27/nicholas-stern-climate-change-davos?INTCMP=SRCHUNEP. Dec. 9, 2012. Doha Climate Conference Opens Gateway to Greater Ambition and Action on Climate Change. United Nations Environment Programme. http://www.unep.org/newscentre/default.aspx?DocumentID=2700&ArticleID=9353UNFCCC. Feb. 1, 2013. Important update on the possible second session of the ADP (29 April - 3 May 2013). UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/2860.phpWilson, David Lee YT. Dec. 6, 2012. Plea by Naderev M. Sano of the Philippines in AWG-KP final session COP 18 Doha. YouTube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 26
  27. 27. Final Thought“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?” Naderev Sano, Philippine representative at COP18 Doha, Dec. 2012 Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 27
  28. 28. CitationWhen referencing this presentation please use the following citation. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Doha COP18. A slideshow; 11th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. April 5, 2013. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 28

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