Achim Dobermann
Research Prioritization, IDOs, and
the Post-2015 Sustainable
Development Agenda
Jharkhand, Eastern India, September 2013
Mandu, Jharkhand, 8 September 2013
A product that meets
a clear demand.
• IR74371-70-1-1 (parents: 1 IRRI, 1 TV)
• Cross made in 1997: target was upland rice
• Succession of projects and IRRI br...
VARIETY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINES
TRAIT DISCOVERY
GENE DISCOVERY
MARKER APPLICATIONS
 Traits
 QTLs, Genes,
DNA-sequences
 D...
Key questions for us
What needs to be done?
How are we going to do it?
How much does it cost?
Where can we find the money?...
Strategic assessment of research
priorities for IRRI in Asia, 2010-2013
• Does IRRI’s greatest potential to benefit the po...
Approach
1. Background
analysis (baseline
scenarios, etc.)
2. Analysis of data
on problem
prevalence
3. Characterization
o...
1 - IR 2 - IR / other 3 - IR / IR 4 - IR / IR / other 5 - RF 6 - RF / RF 7 - RF / RF other 8 - RF Dry/Upland
New rice agro...
Projected change in harvested area 2012-
2035 (ARIMA, proportion)
D. Raitzer, IRRI
Example of constraint characterization output – average area
affected by flooding (proportion harvested area)
D. Raitzer, ...
Example of constraint
characterization process - biotic
Detailed loss surveys of
456 farms in 6
Production Situations
RICE...
Stage 4: Modeling - logistic diffusion
Adoption over time is modeled against a symmetric logistic
diffusion curve by solvi...
Overall results
• Gains do not exceed yield gaps
– Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035 due
to the 63 technolo...
Aggregate impact potential (2005 PPP$, discounted
at 5%), low attributable scenario 2013-2035
Results by ecology & subregion – total
benefits (2005 PPP$ billions)
Results by ecology & subregion – benefits
to the PPP$2 poor (2005 PPP$ billions)
Potential international research impacts from 2013
to 2035 – ‘constant’ elasticity with positive shutdown price in “low”
s...
Major individual international rice research solutions (“low”
scenario, positive shutdown price, 2013-2035 surplus effects...
Results by upstream/downstream
What can we use it for?
• Transparent, documented methodology and data:
baseline for subsequent assessments (ex, post)
• E...
How should the CGIAR spend its money?
CRP CRP Title
Actual unpsent
carried forward
from 2012
Expected new
W1for 2013
Expec...
Can this be done in the CGIAR?
• Robust methodology for a new SRF and the
whole CGIAR portfolio?
• Robust methodology for ...
1 Genetic
Resources
2 New
Varieties
3 Production
Systems
5 Targeting
& Policy
6 Regional
Delivery
Global and Regional
R&D ...
The Timeline for C4 Rice
Gene
discovery
and
molecular
toolbox
development
Characterize
regulatory
controls
Transform
rice ...
Theme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6
Genes, varieties,
management
technologies,
informati...
Schematic impact pathway
Product
Pilot site farmer
adopters, and
benefits seen
Large scale
dissemination
Large numbers
of ...
GRiSP Theme 1
Genetic Diversity
GRiSP Theme 2
Breeding
GRiSP Theme 5
Policy and Impact
GRiSP Theme 6
Capacity and Delivery...
GRiSP IDOs
SLO 1: Reduced rural poverty
SLO 2: Improved food security
SLO 3: Improved nutrition and health
SLO 4: Sustaina...
Potential performance indicators
Indicator IDO Theme Asia Africa Latin America Global
India-Bihar
India-Odissa
B’desh-Sout...
What is an IDO? How are we going to
measure it?
Are we going to measure real or virtual
performance?
Will this inspire and...
How can the CGIAR contribute to the
post-2015 sustainable development
agenda?
Economic development
Social inclusion
Enviro...
Post-2015 process work streams
• UN GA session, Sep 25
• Open Working Group
http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org
• UN Syst...
http://unsdsn.org
03 June 2013
10 Sustainable Development Goals
1. End Extreme Poverty Including Hunger
2. Achieve Development within Planetary Boundarie...
Goal 6: Improve Agriculture Systems and
Raise Rural Prosperity
Targets:
• 6a. Ensure sustainable food production systems t...
Target 6a: Sustainable food production
systems
Indicators:
• Cereal yield growth rate (% p.a.)
• Crop yield gap (actual yi...
Target 6a: Sustainable food production
systems
Aspirational outcomes:
• Annual yield growth rate of major food crops appro...
The CGIAR should adopt the post-2015
framework and terminology
Post-2015 SD
• SDG
• Targets
• Indicators and metrics
for t...
Could the CGIAR also step up and - as
a major contribution to the post-2105
agenda - become the world leader in
monitoring...
Messages
• Embrace the ongoing SDG process and use the
same framework.
• Focus on the unique role of the CGIAR:
outcome-or...
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Research Prioritization, IDOs, and the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda - Achim Dobermann

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Transcript of "Research Prioritization, IDOs, and the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda - Achim Dobermann"

  1. 1. Achim Dobermann Research Prioritization, IDOs, and the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda
  2. 2. Jharkhand, Eastern India, September 2013
  3. 3. Mandu, Jharkhand, 8 September 2013 A product that meets a clear demand.
  4. 4. • IR74371-70-1-1 (parents: 1 IRRI, 1 TV) • Cross made in 1997: target was upland rice • Succession of projects and IRRI breeders (3) • 1 key NARS (CRURRS) + drought network partners • Official release in 2009 in JH and OR for RL • Spreading rapidly in many states through local partners + IRRI: seed + agronomy • Funds: CGIAR core, GCP, Cirad, BMZ, IFAD, BMGF, government, state, …. • Released and spreading in Bangladesh and Nepal (e.g., USAID-FtF, BMGF) • Shared with many other countries and companies “Rice developed through collaboration”
  5. 5. VARIETY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINES TRAIT DISCOVERY GENE DISCOVERY MARKER APPLICATIONS  Traits  QTLs, Genes, DNA-sequences  DNA-markers, marker applications  Product profiles - trait packages  Varieties, Variety portfolios  Breeding lines, Parental lines  Breeder / Foundation seeds TRAITDEVELOPMENT E. Nissilae, IRRI
  6. 6. Key questions for us What needs to be done? How are we going to do it? How much does it cost? Where can we find the money? How can we track it and adjust?
  7. 7. Strategic assessment of research priorities for IRRI in Asia, 2010-2013 • Does IRRI’s greatest potential to benefit the poor – rest in irrigated or rainfed environments? – arise in South Asia or Southeast Asia? – stem from genetic improvement or enhanced management? – result from upstream science or downstream adaptation and delivery? • Approach: compile and integrate state of the art understanding, data and tools to evaluate 63 potential technology solutions (IRRI role) D. Raitzer, IRRI
  8. 8. Approach 1. Background analysis (baseline scenarios, etc.) 2. Analysis of data on problem prevalence 3. Characterization of scientific solutions (assumptions, timeframes, effectiveness) 4. Estimation of outcomes and effects at scale (adoption, productivity, supply) 5. Partial equilibrium modeling Output: Expected impacts quantified
  9. 9. 1 - IR 2 - IR / other 3 - IR / IR 4 - IR / IR / other 5 - RF 6 - RF / RF 7 - RF / RF other 8 - RF Dry/Upland New rice agro-ecologies for Asia (ca. 2005)
  10. 10. Projected change in harvested area 2012- 2035 (ARIMA, proportion) D. Raitzer, IRRI
  11. 11. Example of constraint characterization output – average area affected by flooding (proportion harvested area) D. Raitzer, IRRI
  12. 12. Example of constraint characterization process - biotic Detailed loss surveys of 456 farms in 6 Production Situations RICEPEST and Epirice modeling Data collected by 3000 Indonesian staff for 22 years on rice damage, reconciled to AEs Expert knowledge Results of on farm experiments in 6 Production Situations Estimates
  13. 13. Stage 4: Modeling - logistic diffusion Adoption over time is modeled against a symmetric logistic diffusion curve by solving for the inflection point using provided points on the curve by season/ecology/subregion International research attributable adoption identified via difference between adoption curve and delayed availability
  14. 14. Overall results • Gains do not exceed yield gaps – Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035 due to the 63 technologies analyzed: 6.4% – 10% – Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035 attributable to international research: 4.0% – 6.3% • Gains consistent with research contributions assessed historically in Asia. • Includes R&D pipeline at various stages, from basic research to ready to use products. D. Raitzer, IRRI
  15. 15. Aggregate impact potential (2005 PPP$, discounted at 5%), low attributable scenario 2013-2035
  16. 16. Results by ecology & subregion – total benefits (2005 PPP$ billions)
  17. 17. Results by ecology & subregion – benefits to the PPP$2 poor (2005 PPP$ billions)
  18. 18. Potential international research impacts from 2013 to 2035 – ‘constant’ elasticity with positive shutdown price in “low” scenario (values in billions of discounted [5%] 2005 PPP$, DALYs in millions) Host plant resistance Abiotic stress tolerance Inbred yield C4 rice Hybrid rice Other traits Management Mechanization Total 3.35 10.92 8.27 2.11 2.28 2.22 7.43 4.14 Consumers 1.31 4.53 3.54 0.85 1.01 0.97 2.79 3.22 Producers 1.84 5.58 4.00 1.07 1.03 1.30 3.72 4.75 Hired labor 0.19 0.76 0.70 0.18 0.23 (0.08) (0.26) (3.87) Poor consumers 0.37 1.60 1.03 0.22 0.35 0.26 0.84 0.93 Poor producers 0.43 1.82 1.06 0.25 0.32 0.31 0.85 0.67 Poor hired labor 0.10 0.49 0.35 0.09 0.12 (0.04) (0.15) (1.81) Total poor (PPP2/day) 0.90 3.90 2.44 0.57 0.79 0.53 1.54 (0.21) DALYs reduced 0.51 2.33 1.98 0.51 0.71 0.49 1.22 1.33 GHG & water 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 1.17 0.04 Germplasm Management related
  19. 19. Major individual international rice research solutions (“low” scenario, positive shutdown price, 2013-2035 surplus effects in million 2005 PPP$ discounted [5%]) Total benefits Total benefits to 1.25 poor (including labor) Total benefits to 2 poor (including labor) DALYs reduced GHG & water Varieties with increased attainable yield 5,393 652.0 1,678.4 1.4 21.0 Inbred yield potential 2,874 283.8 760.4 0.6 7.3 Submergence tolerant varieties 2,326 363.6 812.3 0.5 8.1 Hybrid yield potential 2,281 317.7 789.2 0.7 5.6 Introgression of drought QTLs 2,223 472.8 1,034.2 0.6 8.6 Site-specific nutrient mgt. (NPK) 2,227 216.7 556.0 0.3 13.1 C4 rice 2,112 213.7 569.9 0.5 7.5 Salt tolerant varieties for coastal areas 1,946 299.9 662.2 0.4 4.0 Water-saving irrigation (AWD) 1,469 71.4 158.9 0.1 1,040.0 D. Raitzer, IRRI
  20. 20. Results by upstream/downstream
  21. 21. What can we use it for? • Transparent, documented methodology and data: baseline for subsequent assessments (ex, post) • Easy to update and tailor to various applications: scenarios, hypotheses,… • Internalizes impact thinking and culture • Discover what we know, and what we don’t know: guidance for filling critical data gaps • Guidance for research priorities and fundraising: exposes many trade-offs
  22. 22. How should the CGIAR spend its money? CRP CRP Title Actual unpsent carried forward from 2012 Expected new W1for 2013 Expected W2 for 2013 90% OF 2012 expenditure Proposed W/W2 allocation 1.1 Drylands Systems 0.9 6.4 8.2 15.5 15.5 1.2 Humid tropics 0.2 8.5 5.0 13.5 13.7 1.3 AAS 4.1 1.9 8.7 7.8 14.7 2 PIM 11.7 7.8 12.9 17.8 32.4 3.1 WHEAT 1.6 5.3 4.8 10.9 11.7 3.2 MAIZE 4.7 9.7 4.2 14.0 18.6 3.3 GRiSP 0 25.8 6.1 31.9 31.9 3.4 RTB 11.3 9.8 12.8 20.1 33.9 3.5 Grain legumes 2.6 11.2 9.3 23.1 23.1 3.6 Dryland cereals 2 6.2 3.4 9.9 11.6 3.7 Livestock and fish 7.5 0.0 15.2 7.4 22.7 4 A4NH 8.1 5.0 16.2 11.4 29.3 5 WLE 6.7 8.3 10.2 21.9 25.2 6 Forests, Trees & Agroforestry 0.2 19.7 6.6 26.3 26.5 7 CCAFS 4.9 32.8 4.0 36.8 41.7 Gene banks 2.6 8.6 2.2 10.8 13.4 Total CRP 69 167 130 279 366
  23. 23. Can this be done in the CGIAR? • Robust methodology for a new SRF and the whole CGIAR portfolio? • Robust methodology for all CRPs? • What adaptations would be needed? Who will do it? • Monitoring mechanisms?
  24. 24. 1 Genetic Resources 2 New Varieties 3 Production Systems 5 Targeting & Policy 6 Regional Delivery Global and Regional R&D Product Lines 2.1. Informatics and MET 2.2. Improved traits 2.3. Stress-tol. rice 2.4. HY irrigated rice 2.5. Hybrid rice 2.6. Healthier rice Activities Products Milestones Regional/National Initiatives - System solutions - Public & private partners Outcomes ( Regional) for target regions Impact 4 New Products & Value Chains GRiSP R&D Themes Partners • 5-yr work and business plan: 2011-2015 • Interdisciplinary, product-oriented R&D: 94 R&D Products clustered in 26 Product lines under 6 Themes • New frontiers research projects • Capacity building & gender 15-20% 25-30% 20-30% 5-10% 5-10% 10% GRiSP Themes, Product Lines & Products
  25. 25. The Timeline for C4 Rice Gene discovery and molecular toolbox development Characterize regulatory controls Transform rice to express Kranz anatomy and the C4 metabolic enzymes Optimize C4 function in transgenic rice Breed C4 transgenics into local varieties 3 years 3 years 5 years 4 years
  26. 26. Theme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6 Genes, varieties, management technologies, information gateway, models, data, tools, capacity, etc Products locally adapted and promoted by public, NGO, and private sector Products adopted by farmers, value chain actors, policy makers, other stakeholders Increased nutritious rice production Stable and affordable price of rice Increased resource use efficiency Rural Poverty Nutrition and health Food Security Sustainability Products Intermediate Development Outcomes Impact Development partnerships Science partnerships Timeline Farmers: 1000s 10.000s 100.000s millions GRiSP CGIAR SLOs
  27. 27. Schematic impact pathway Product Pilot site farmer adopters, and benefits seen Large scale dissemination Large numbers of farmers adopt Increased productivity SLO (food security, poverty, sustainability, H&N) Collaborative partner adopters, and benefits seen GRiSP “Outside” Research outcome – Intermediate and end user Intermediate development Outcome (IDO) 5->10 years 3-6 years 6-9 years 9-12 years >> 12 years 100s 1000s 100,000s 1,000,000s Farmers
  28. 28. GRiSP Theme 1 Genetic Diversity GRiSP Theme 2 Breeding GRiSP Theme 5 Policy and Impact GRiSP Theme 6 Capacity and Delivery GRiSP Theme 4 Value adding GRiSP Theme 3 CNRM SLO1 Rural PovertySLO3 Nutrition and healthSLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability Gene Bank; Novel gene pool; Valuable-trait genes Breeding tools; breeding lines; (hybrid) varieties for biotic and abiotic stress, high yield, nutritious value Resource-use efficient, low carbon-footprint management practices; Adaptations to stresses and Climate Change; Mechanized and Diversified systems Post-harvest technologies, Strategies for market access, Specialty rices, Novel rice-based products C4 rice Information and tools for technology targeting; Impact assessments; Global rice information for policy analysis Tools for communication and Extension; Models and tools for capacity building; Platforms for innovation and delivery; Seed and variety delivery systems NARES and ARIs use tools, genes, (pre-)breeding lines to develop improved local rice varieties Pro-poor and pro-gender improved management practices locally adapted by NARES and promoted by public, NGO, and private sector Post-harvest technologies, market-access solutions, and value-added products locally adapted by NARES Local policy makers and decision takers enlightened about rice policy opportunities Extension, delivery, and capacity building models employed by local stakeholders Functional (public, NGO, private) local rice seed delivery systems/markets Farmers adopt improved and nutritious rice varieties Farmers adopt sustainable and environmentally-friendly rice management practices Rice value-chain actors adopt improved post- harvest practices New cadre of high-quality rice researchers and extension agents; extended partnerships for delivery and impact at scale Policies in place that support positive impact from rice research Increased rice yield Increased rice production Enhanced ecosystem resilience Reduced pesticide use Increased water, labor, and energy use efficiency Increased consumption of nutritious rice Stable and affordable price of rice Increased expandable income on nonrice items by poor rice farmers (and urban dwellers) Stable and sufficient market availability of rice Increased income by actors in the rice value chain Reduced cost of rice production Reduced mycotoxin contamination in rice Farmers produce value- added and novel products Reduced GHG emissions. carbon footprint in rice production Reduced post- harvest loss in rice Increased value adding in the rice value chain Intermediate Development Outcome Research Outcome Outputs: products End user Partners Enablingactions Local rice seed distribution systems deployed Enablingactions Increased health of rice farmers and rice consumers Urban Poverty Breeders effectively access genebank for trait mining Improved and accelerated variety development with novel traits Increased women empowerrment Participation of women in decision making MDG: reduced poverty MDG: increased gender equity
  29. 29. GRiSP IDOs SLO 1: Reduced rural poverty SLO 2: Improved food security SLO 3: Improved nutrition and health SLO 4: Sustainably managed natural resources # IDO SLOs 1 Increased rice yield 1,2,3 2 Increased rice productivity (or resource-use efficiency) 1,2,3 3 Decreased poverty of net rice consumers (urban and rural) and rice producers 1 4 Increased sustainability and environmental quality of rice-based cropping systems 4 5 Improved efficiency and increased value in rice value chain 1,2,3 6 Improved nutrition status derived from rice consumption 3 7 Increased rice genetic diversity for current and future generations 1,2,3 8 Increased pro-poor and gender-equitable delivery systems for improved rice technologies 1-4 9 Increased gender equity in the rice value chain 1,2,3
  30. 30. Potential performance indicators Indicator IDO Theme Asia Africa Latin America Global India-Bihar India-Odissa B’desh-South, coastal Myanmar- cebtral,delta Vietnam-South Laos,cambodia Philippines Nigeria Ghana Tanzania Mozambique Senegal Madagascar Peru,Equador, Colombia Venezuela Dominicanrep., Nicaragua Uruguay,RGS- Brasil 1 Genetic gain 1 1,2 x x X 2 Farmers’ yield 1 2,3 x x x x X 3 Water productivity 2,4 3 4 Fertilizer productivity 2,4 3 5 Consumer expenditure on rice 3 5 X 6 Income from rice farming 3 5 7 Pesticide use 4 3 8 Greenhouse gas emissions 4 3 X 9 Post-harvest loss 5 4 10 Value added through specialty products 5 4
  31. 31. What is an IDO? How are we going to measure it? Are we going to measure real or virtual performance? Will this inspire and guide us to do better research? Will anyone outside the CGIAR understand all that?
  32. 32. How can the CGIAR contribute to the post-2015 sustainable development agenda? Economic development Social inclusion Environmental sustainability Good governance
  33. 33. Post-2015 process work streams • UN GA session, Sep 25 • Open Working Group http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org • UN System Task Team • High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons • Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), http://unsdsn.org • National, regional, global and thematic consultations, http://www.worldwewant2015.org • UN Global Compact, http://www.unglobalcompact.org/
  34. 34. http://unsdsn.org 03 June 2013
  35. 35. 10 Sustainable Development Goals 1. End Extreme Poverty Including Hunger 2. Achieve Development within Planetary Boundaries 3. Ensure Effective Learning for All Children and Youth for Life and Livelihood 4. Achieve Gender Equality, Social Inclusion, and Human Rights for All 5. Achieve Health and Wellbeing at All Ages 6. Improve Agricultural Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity 7. Empower Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities 8. Curb Human-Induced Climate Change and Ensure Sustainable Energy 9. Secure Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Good Management of Natural Resources 10. Transform Governance for Sustainable Development http://unsdsn.org
  36. 36. Goal 6: Improve Agriculture Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity Targets: • 6a. Ensure sustainable food production systems that achieve high yields with high efficiency of water, nutrients, and energy, and have low food losses and waste. • 6b. Halt forest and wetland conversion to agriculture, protect soil resources, and ensure that farming systems are resilient to climatic change and disasters. • 6c. Ensure universal access in rural areas to basic resources and infrastructure services (land, water, sanitation, modern energy, transport, mobile and broadband communication, agricultural inputs, and advisory services).
  37. 37. Target 6a: Sustainable food production systems Indicators: • Cereal yield growth rate (% p.a.) • Crop yield gap (actual yield as % of yield potential) • Livestock and fish productivity growth • Full-chain nitrogen [phosphorus] use efficiency (%) • Crop water productivity (tons of harvested product per unit irrigation water) • ….. • ……
  38. 38. Target 6a: Sustainable food production systems Aspirational outcomes: • Annual yield growth rate of major food crops approaches or exceeds [1.5]%. • The majority of farms achieve [80]% of the attainable water-limited yield potential by 2030. • Livestock productivity in developing countries doubled by 2030, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. • Full-chain efficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus increased by [x]% relative to current levels in each country with sub-optimal efficiency. • Water productivity of crop production increased by [30]% in countries with high water use for irrigation.
  39. 39. The CGIAR should adopt the post-2015 framework and terminology Post-2015 SD • SDG • Targets • Indicators and metrics for them • (specific outcomes) CGIAR • SLOs • IDOs • Indicators • …  the timelines for the post-2015 process, a new SRF and a CRP II portfolio seem to match: 2013-2015
  40. 40. Could the CGIAR also step up and - as a major contribution to the post-2105 agenda - become the world leader in monitoring the performance of agriculture in developing countries?
  41. 41. Messages • Embrace the ongoing SDG process and use the same framework. • Focus on the unique role of the CGIAR: outcome-oriented research for SD. • Do better priority setting at System (SRF) and CRP level using a uniform, transparent, robust theory of change and methodology. • Measure the measurable at critical points along the R&D pipeline, for faster and greater impact. • Leave enough room for the unexpected.
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