Prof. K Srinath Reddy
President, Public Health Foundation of India
President, World Heart Federation
Prof. K Srinath Reddy...
GBD 2010
Lancet 2012
• Total = 52.8 Million Deaths
NCDs = 34.5 Million
• Communicable, Maternal, Neonatal and
Nutritional ...
Projected global numbers of deaths by cause for high, middle and low income
countries (WHO, 2008)
The Rising NCD Challenge In Developing Regions Including
Younger Populations
Source: World Bank, 2011
High-Income Countries
Cardiovascular disease
(Age-standardized death rate per 100 000, males)
Cardiovascular disease
(Age-standardized death rat...
Is NCD an issue for poor countries? YES!Is NCD an issue for poor countries? YES!
Source: Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Alleyne G...
GBD 2010
Lancet 2012
Risk Factors
(Top Contributors to DALYs)
1. High Blood Pressure
2. Smoking (excluding SHS)
3. Alcohol...
Stages of Health Transition
Stage I
Age of
Pestilence
and Famine
Stage II
Age of
Receding
Pandemics
Stage III
Age of ‘Man
...
The Nutrition Transition in
Developing Countries
The Nutrition Transition in
Developing Countries
Shift in diet structure ...
OVERWEIGHT – OBESITY : GLOBAL PROFILE
• 1 billion adults are currently overweight (BMI 25-29.9 Kg/m²), and
a further 475 m...
Low birth weight and its
consequences
Low birth weight and its
consequences
Rebound
Adiposity
Hypertension
Coronary
heart ...
NCDs: Economic ImpactNCDs: Economic Impact
NCDs accounted for five of the six top causes
of economic loss in 2008
Heart di...
UN-WHO GOAL
25
By
25
Srinath Reddy, World Heart Federation "Global Burden of NCDs and Risk Factors"
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Srinath Reddy, World Heart Federation "Global Burden of NCDs and Risk Factors"

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Science Forum 2013 (www.scienceforum13.org)
Breakout Session 2: Non Communicable Diseases
Dr. Srinath Reddy main presentation

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Srinath Reddy, World Heart Federation "Global Burden of NCDs and Risk Factors"

  1. 1. Prof. K Srinath Reddy President, Public Health Foundation of India President, World Heart Federation Prof. K Srinath Reddy President, Public Health Foundation of India President, World Heart Federation Global Burden of NCDs And Risk factors Global Burden of NCDs And Risk factors
  2. 2. GBD 2010 Lancet 2012 • Total = 52.8 Million Deaths NCDs = 34.5 Million • Communicable, Maternal, Neonatal and Nutritional causes = 24.9% (Down From 34.1% in 1990) • Non-Communicable Diseases =65.3% (Up From 57% in 1990) Mortality
  3. 3. Projected global numbers of deaths by cause for high, middle and low income countries (WHO, 2008)
  4. 4. The Rising NCD Challenge In Developing Regions Including Younger Populations Source: World Bank, 2011 High-Income Countries
  5. 5. Cardiovascular disease (Age-standardized death rate per 100 000, males) Cardiovascular disease (Age-standardized death rate per 100 000, males) Yach D., 2009 723-1030 347-390 391-426 391-426 427-464 542-722 723-1030 138-205 206-281 282-346 347-390 391-426 427-464 465-541 542-722 723-1030 No Data
  6. 6. Is NCD an issue for poor countries? YES!Is NCD an issue for poor countries? YES! Source: Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Alleyne G, et al for the Lancet NCD Action group UN HLM on NCDs: Addressing four questions. Lancet 2011; POL June 13 2011
  7. 7. GBD 2010 Lancet 2012 Risk Factors (Top Contributors to DALYs) 1. High Blood Pressure 2. Smoking (excluding SHS) 3. Alcohol Use 4. Household Air Pollution 5. Low Fruit 6. High Body Mass Index 7. High Fasting Plasma Glucose 8. Childhood Underweight 9. Ambient PM Pollution 10 Physical Inactivity Diet & Physical Inactivity Cluster Responsible For Largest Global Disease Burden
  8. 8. Stages of Health Transition Stage I Age of Pestilence and Famine Stage II Age of Receding Pandemics Stage III Age of ‘Man Made’ Degenerative Diseases Stage IV Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases Stage V Age of Social Upheaval and Health Regression Stage VI Era of Environmental Degradation Omran (1971) Olshansky and Ault (1986) Yusuf and Reddy (2001) Thakker and Reddy (2008) Sub Saharan Africa Rural India Urban India Russia Latin America
  9. 9. The Nutrition Transition in Developing Countries The Nutrition Transition in Developing Countries Shift in diet structure – towards a high fat and refined sugar Western Diet Accelerating rate of change in diet Shift in activity patterns Link between diet and activity changes and increases in obesity Shift in diet structure – towards a high fat and refined sugar Western Diet Accelerating rate of change in diet Shift in activity patterns Link between diet and activity changes and increases in obesity Popkin, 2001
  10. 10. OVERWEIGHT – OBESITY : GLOBAL PROFILE • 1 billion adults are currently overweight (BMI 25-29.9 Kg/m²), and a further 475 million are obese • Applying Asia-specific cut-off points for the definition of obesity (BMI>28 kg/m2), number of obese adults globally is over 600 million • Globally, up to 200 million school children are either overweight or obese; of those 40-50 million are classified as obese. IASO/IOTF (2010)
  11. 11. Low birth weight and its consequences Low birth weight and its consequences Rebound Adiposity Hypertension Coronary heart disease Atherosclero sis, Stroke Type II Diabetes, Insulin resistance Adult lung function ? Cancer
  12. 12. NCDs: Economic ImpactNCDs: Economic Impact NCDs accounted for five of the six top causes of economic loss in 2008 Heart disease : $752bn Stroke: $298bn Diabetes: $204bn NCDs accounted for five of the six top causes of economic loss in 2008 Heart disease : $752bn Stroke: $298bn Diabetes: $204bn NCDs cost developing countries between 0.02% to 6.77% of GDP; this economic burden is more than that caused by Malaria (1960’s) or AIDS (1990’s) - IOM Report 2010 NCDs will lead to a loss of 30 Trillion Dollars globally up to 2030 representing 48% of global GDP in 2010 – Harvard + WEF Study 2011
  13. 13. UN-WHO GOAL 25 By 25
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