Urbanization and Changes in Farm Size in Sub-
Saharan Africa and linkages to food security
and nutrition
Agnes Andersson D...
The big picture
• Urbanization
• Changes in farm size
• Consequences for food security and
farming
• Limitations of the bi...
Urbanization and urban
growth
• Urban population growth rate
• Urban growth driven by
-natural increase
-(net) rural to ur...
Measuring urban growth
• Global comparisons and analysis
based on UN projections
• Based in turn on latest census
data and...
Empirical tendencies
• African urban growth driven
primarily by natural increase
• Break with patterns from the
1960s/1970...
African population growth rates
1950-2015
• Slowing rates of urban annual growth,
peak in the 1960s (explains
overestimate...
Changes in farm size in
Africa
• Declining average farm size
• Also mean per capita land size
seems to be declining.
• Top...
Effects on agriculture and
food security in rural areas
• Shifting urban dietary
preferences
• Potential commercial
opport...
Limitations of relying on the big picture
• Pockets of intensification
• Differences in soil fertility and
climate
• Diffe...
Available micro level data
The Afrint Project
•2002: the possibilities and
challenges of staple crop
intensification
•2008...
African micro study
• 9 countries
• 20 regions
• 103 villages
• 4000 households (2354 in the
panel from 2002 to 2008)
• Pu...
What is the problem?
2000-
2002
Mean
yield
(t/ha)
2000-
2002
Potential
yield
(t/ha)
2000-
2002
Yield gap
(%)
2006-
2008
Me...
Why is this a problem?
• Farmers are greatly reliant on farm income
• Non farm cash income makes up 34% of
total cash inco...
Production related
constraints
• Decreasing farm sizes – from 2.42 to
2.16 ha.
• Very low use of fertilizer
• Low use of i...
Market related
constraints
• Smallholder are both producers
and consumers
• Expensive inputs, low producer
prices
• Liveli...
Consumption pressures related to multi-local
patterns of consumption and production
• Livelihoods prone to seasonality, ex...
Food security and maize transfers
Income
quintiles
countrywise
Maize
retained
per CU
including
transfers
(kg)
Maize
retain...
Agricultural growth dynamics strongly
concentrated
• Two dynamic types of production systems: mixed
farming, grain focused...
Linkages to the nonfarm sector
• Panel level data suggests a movement out
of the nonfarm sector and a return to
farming.
•...
Strategic areas for agricultural
research vary by region
Well-connected, dynamic, intensive
-extension/education to meet s...
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Agnes Andersson Djurfeldt, Lund University "Urbanization and Changes in Farm Size in Sub-Saharan Africa and Linkages to Food Security"

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Science Forum 2013 (www.scienceforum13.org)
Breakout Session 9: Farm Size, Urbanization and the Links from Agriculture to Nutrition and Health
Agnes Andersson Djurfeldt, Lund University

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Agnes Andersson Djurfeldt, Lund University "Urbanization and Changes in Farm Size in Sub-Saharan Africa and Linkages to Food Security"

  1. 1. Urbanization and Changes in Farm Size in Sub- Saharan Africa and linkages to food security and nutrition Agnes Andersson Djurfeldt Department of Human Geography, Lund University
  2. 2. The big picture • Urbanization • Changes in farm size • Consequences for food security and farming • Limitations of the big picture
  3. 3. Urbanization and urban growth • Urban population growth rate • Urban growth driven by -natural increase -(net) rural to urban migration -reclassification -boundary changes • Why does this matter? • Urbanization: urban population growth is faster than rural population growth
  4. 4. Measuring urban growth • Global comparisons and analysis based on UN projections • Based in turn on latest census data and estimates • Quality and comparability issues • Other data sources: E-geopolis, World Bank agglomeration index use universal criteria
  5. 5. Empirical tendencies • African urban growth driven primarily by natural increase • Break with patterns from the 1960s/1970s, migration, 40% • Reclassification, around 25% between 1950-1980 • Regional differences pronounced, overall urban population share 37%
  6. 6. African population growth rates 1950-2015 • Slowing rates of urban annual growth, peak in the 1960s (explains overestimated urban growth) • Lower mortality in urban areas and high fertility, but signs of falling fertility in the 1990s • Decline in migration as a source of urban growth • Poverty rates much less improved than in Asia • More than half of urban population in towns below 500 000 inhabitants Source: UN-DESA World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 revision
  7. 7. Changes in farm size in Africa • Declining average farm size • Also mean per capita land size seems to be declining. • Top quartile farms on average four to nine times bigger than in the bottom quartile. • Large variation in farm size within countries
  8. 8. Effects on agriculture and food security in rural areas • Shifting urban dietary preferences • Potential commercial opportunities • Household level RUL • Inclusion rests on accessibility, type of urban growth dynamics, city size distribution and institutional aspects
  9. 9. Limitations of relying on the big picture • Pockets of intensification • Differences in soil fertility and climate • Differences in access to urban areas, markets, etc. • Local institutional aspects • Village level studies an important complement to macro-level ones
  10. 10. Available micro level data The Afrint Project •2002: the possibilities and challenges of staple crop intensification •2008: follow up on round one, to gauge changes in the staple crop sector. •2013: farm-non farm interaction and gender
  11. 11. African micro study • 9 countries • 20 regions • 103 villages • 4000 households (2354 in the panel from 2002 to 2008) • Purposively sampled in dynamic and less dynamic regions (21 in total) • Representative at the village level 11
  12. 12. What is the problem? 2000- 2002 Mean yield (t/ha) 2000- 2002 Potential yield (t/ha) 2000- 2002 Yield gap (%) 2006- 2008 Mean yield (t/ha) 2006- 2008 Potential yield (t/ha) 2006- 2008 Yield gap (%) Maize 1,26 3,71 66% 1,08 2,91 63% Sorghum 0,71 1,54 54% 0,39 1,04 63% Rice 1,21 3,01 60% 1,23 2,82 57% Partly/fully irrigated rice 1,75 4,27 59% 1,92 3,88 51%
  13. 13. Why is this a problem? • Farmers are greatly reliant on farm income • Non farm cash income makes up 34% of total cash income for those who have this type of income • Around half the sample (51% in 2002 and 47% in 2008) lack non-farm income
  14. 14. Production related constraints • Decreasing farm sizes – from 2.42 to 2.16 ha. • Very low use of fertilizer • Low use of improved seed technology • Uneven access to land • Gender based discrimination in access to productive resources
  15. 15. Market related constraints • Smallholder are both producers and consumers • Expensive inputs, low producer prices • Livelihoods prone to seasonality, extreme weather events – hedging bets outside agriculture to avoid seasonal shifts • Division of labour over time and space crucial • Multi-spatial systems of consumption • Vicious cycle of poor producer and consumer confidence in the market as a provider of food • Only half of the growers of maize, cassava, and rice sell some any output. A third for sorghum. • Share of non-commercialized farmers has increased from 17% to 21%. • More maize but less sorghum is being sold. • Staple crop amounts sold remain very low.
  16. 16. Consumption pressures related to multi-local patterns of consumption and production • Livelihoods prone to seasonality, extreme weather events • Division of labour over time and space crucial • Multi-spatial systems of consumption – urban reliance on rural food • Generally not reported in surveys – considered to be part of household consumption • Underestimates the subsistence obligations of the rural household
  17. 17. Food security and maize transfers Income quintiles countrywise Maize retained per CU including transfers (kg) Maize retained per CU excluding transfers (kg) Number of meals eaten during lean season N Q1 82 64 1,95 151 Q2 103 86 2,16 205 Q3 138 113 2,20 238 Q4 185 152 2,29 280 Q5 247 209 2,41 316 Total 165 136 2,24 1190
  18. 18. Agricultural growth dynamics strongly concentrated • Two dynamic types of production systems: mixed farming, grain focused, extensive versus intensive, high value crops in areas close to urban markets. • Male earnings in the grains sector versus entry into vegetable markets by female headed households • Pro-poor agrarian growth strongly concentrated to particular villages. • Geographic rather than internal polarization • Connection to markets varies greatly • Most marginal areas: a retreat into subsistence, withdrawal from technology use, shrinking household sizes
  19. 19. Linkages to the nonfarm sector • Panel level data suggests a movement out of the nonfarm sector and a return to farming. • High mobility between the two sectors and types of nonfarm earnings • Clear gender implications, with earnings from the nonfarm sector making up for poorer access to farm incomes for female headed households • The role of the nonfarm sector differs by type of region
  20. 20. Strategic areas for agricultural research vary by region Well-connected, dynamic, intensive -extension/education to meet standards -market co-ordination -irrigation Grain based, mixed farming -Technology for rainfed agriculture -Commercial opportunities outside grains -Small stock, livestock -Micro-credit schemes Marginal areas -food security must be prioritized – little scope for commercialization -subsidized inputs -cash transfers -education improvements

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