The New State of South Sudan and the Challenges of Secession


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South Sudan’s recent independence from Sudan has been complicated by disputes over access to natural resources and shared borders. As part of our Interactive Community Roundtable series, Dr Salman M.A. Salman discussed in detail some of the problems facing Africa’s newest state.

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The New State of South Sudan and the Challenges of Secession

  1. 1. The New State of SouthSudan and the Challenges of Secession S. Salman September 20, 2012 ETH - Zurich
  2. 2. Structure of the PresentationThe political, geographical and historicalsetting of Sudan - South SudanThe road to secession / independenceMajor pending issues / challenges betweenthe two states Oil Borders Abyei Nile watersConclusion 2
  3. 3. Political and Geographical settingSouth Sudan was born officially on July 9, 2011 after six years of an interim period, following conclusion of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Jan 2005; referendum on January 9, 2011 South Sudan is 193rd nation of the world, 54th of AfricaSix neighbors, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, CongoDR, Central African Republic and Sudan About 2000 km borders with SudanLandlocked, bordering three landlocked states(Ethiopia, Uganda and CAR) 3
  4. 4. Celebrations of Independence of theRepublic of South Sudan, July 9, 2011 4
  5. 5. Celebrations of Independence of theRepublic of South Sudan , July 9, 2011 5
  6. 6. Celebrations of Independence of theRepublic of South Sudan , July 9, 2011 6
  7. 7. Celebrations of Independence of theRepublic of South Sudan , July 9, 2011 7
  8. 8. Sudan Prior to Secession of South Sudan
  9. 9. Republic of South Sudan 12
  10. 10. Land and PeopleArea size 640,000 square kilometersTotal size of Sudan (pre July 9, 2011) 2.5million square kilometersAbout 26% of SudanPopulation 8.2 million peopleTotal population of Sudan 39.1 millionAbout 21% of population of SudanLarge border areas in dispute with northIllimi triangle dispute with Ethiopia &Kenya 14
  11. 11. Socio-economic Setting of South SudanAt the bottom of the developing world.A majority of its people (about 80%) live on less than adollar a day.A 15-year-old girl has a higher chance of dying in childbirththan she does of finishing primary school.More than 10 percent of children do not make it to their fifthbirthday.About three-quarters of adults cannot read40 percent of population need food aid to surviveHalf-dozen rebel groups, with thousands of fighters,More than 4000 people killed in ethnic & rebel violence lastyear (2011).Widely reported corruption and misuse of public funds 15
  12. 12. South Sudan PotentialThe country has huge potential Oil: production: 375,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, currently suspended Extensive Fertile land, 20 million feddans/ha Water – more than 1,000 BCM of rain Forests, around 400,000 square km Huge animal resources wealth: about 12 million cows, 24 million goats & sheep, • not part of the economy Other mineral resources: gold, copper, uranium 16
  13. 13. Historical Relationship between North and South of SudanRelationship dominated by war even beforeindependence of Sudan in 1956 The first civil war 1955 – 1972 Demand for federation in 1955, 1958, 1965 Addis Ababa Agreement 1972 Collapse of Agreement in 1983 Resumption of civil war in 1983; SPLA/M Comprehensive Peace Agreement 2005 17
  14. 14. Reasons for Turbulent RelationshipEthnic, cultural, linguistic & religious differencesSouth declared closed districts during most of thecolonial era (1922 – 1947)Failure of national governments to recognizedifferences, be inclusive Imposition of northern culture – Islamic religion, Arabic language, way of life, holidays, and then sharia law in 1983; As a means for national integration Viewing problem as one of law & order Adopting a military solution 18
  15. 15. Did the South Really want to Secede?Demand for federation in 1954Round Table conference in 1965 andrenewed demand for federationRegional Autonomy reached in AddisAbaba agreement in 1972Major breaches by Khartoum Introduction of Sharia law in 1983Birth of Sudan People’s Liberation ArmyUnity based on equality; confederationRight of self determination in 1991 19
  16. 16. Comprehensive Peace AgreementNegotiations started in early 2002, in Kenya,concluded on Jan 9, 2005Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPA)consisted of six separate agreements: The Machakos Protocol on self determination Security Arrangments Power Sharing Wealth Sharing Abyei Protocol Protocol on Blue Nile & S. Kordofan provincesTreaty-based right of self determination 20
  17. 17. 21
  18. 18. The Comprehensive Peace AgreementThe rocky Interim Period 2005 – 20111 Major differences on ministerial posts, Abyei, Islamic law, oil contracts, Differences over percentages for referendum Death of Garang who adopted “New Sudan”The referendum Act 2009Results of the Referendum (July 9, 2005) 98.5% for secession; 1.5% for unityFormal Secession July 9, 2011 (6 months interim 22
  19. 19. South Sudan Referendum Act 2009Article 67 of the Act listed the following tenitems as the issues for post referendumdiscussion and agreement Nationality, currency, public service, position of integrated joint military units, and security and intelligence agencies, international agreements and treaties, debts and assets, oil and its production and export, water resources In addition there are the issues of the borders and Abyei 23
  20. 20. Major Pending issuesMost of the issues remain pendingHave to be dealt with after 9 July 2011 bytwo sovereign nationsMajor issues still pending Oil, borders Abyei Dispute The Nile WatersOther issues: citizenship, debt & assets 24
  21. 21. Oil: catalyst for conflict or cooperation?75% of oil in the South, 25% in the NorthNorth got 50% of South oil during interim period2005-2011; as a result, 62% of total Sudan oilAfter July 9, North has to live with 25%North has the oil infrastructure, pipeline, refinery,port facilities, technical personnelProven so far as a major element for conflict No agreement yet on South Sudan oil transport South closed oil fields in January; Lamu pipeline Clashes over Heglig oil fieldInterwoven with border disputes 25
  22. 22. The Unique Nature of Abyei DisputeDispute was about an undefined area Whole initial process was about its boundaries Followed by a referendum on to whom it belongsThe large number of agreements between thetwo parties Not to resolve dispute, but to put mechanismsSignificant involvement and contribution ofinternational community USA; IGAD; ABC; PCA; AU; UN (UNSC) No precedent for an internal dispute to have such wide international intervention
  23. 23. The Unique Nature of Abyei DisputeDispute involves GoS and SPLM, and alsoNgok Dinka (south) and Misseriya (north)tribes who share parts of Abyei Water rights: The genesis of the dispute Discovery of oil: complicating factorGradual shift of dispute from one involvingboundaries to who is eligible to vote Role of the ABC and PCAEscalation of dispute from a local to anational and then international one Birth of Republic of South Sudan on July 9, 2011 UNSC Resolution 1990/20111
  24. 24. Main Agreements on Abyei DisputeAbyei Protocol Role of the US Special EnvoyUnderstandings on the Abyei BoundariesCommission (ABC)Implementation Modalities of the AbyeiProtocolText ToR for the ABCRules and Procedures for the ABCAgreement to refer dispute to the PCAAddis Ababa Agreement 2011
  25. 25. Main Issues addressed by PCAReview of the decision of the ABCIssues addressed by the PCA: Whether ABC exceeded its authority Abyei defined in territorial or tribal sense Review ABC analysis for correctness or reasonableness Grazing rights do not get distinguished by emergence of new states Decreased Abyei area considerably From 18,500 sq kilometres to 10,640. Confirmed grazing rights of Misseriya 31
  26. 26. Dissenting opinionDissenting opinion by judge Al-Khasawneh PCA exceeded its authority; just as ABC did Ignored Rights of MisseriyaWho gave the Experts or the Tribunal theright to reduce the Misseriya to second classcitizens in their own land and to createconditions which may deny them access towater? 32
  27. 27. Figure 2, The Boundaries of the Abyei Area as Proposed by the Government of Sudan.
  28. 28. Figure 3, ABC Experts’ map of the Abyei area
  29. 29. Figure 4, PCA final award map of the Abyei area
  30. 30. Figure 5, PCA map comparing the PCA award map with the ABC Experts’ map
  31. 31. Current Situation in AbyeiAddis Ababa Agreement June 20, 2011UN Security Council Resolution 1999/2011.June 27, 2011: Demilitarized Abyei (as defined by PCA; 10,400 km) 4,200 Ethiopian soldiers (UN Interim Security Force for Abyei UNISFA) Ethiopian Police Force & civilian staff Joint Dinka / Misseriya management of Abyei Budget to be shared equally by Sudan and S. Sudan Resolution issued under Chapter VII of UN Charter, protection of UN staff & civilians Quarterly report by the UN SG to the UNSC
  32. 32. South Sudan and the Nile90% of South Sudan is in the Nile Basin20% of the Nile Basin is in South Sudan 45% in Northern Sudan Three largest cities in South Sudan, Juba, Wau and Malakal are on the NileWhite Nile loses itself and remerges inSouth Sudan Evaporation and seepage in the swamps of about 50 BCM Canals (including Jonglei) could add 20 BCM to the Nile flow 40
  33. 33. The Nile Basin World’s longest river (6,650 km);Largest swamps; 2nd largest lakeOldest and largest damsOldest and most controversial treaties 300 m people (600m by 2025)10% of the African ContinentEthnic, religious and linguistic diversity Shared by 11 countriesBurundi D.R. Congo EgyptEthiopia Eritrea Kenya Rwanda South Sudan SudanTanzania Uganda Region of Extremes  Poverty: 6 of 15 poorest in world  High variability & climate change  Landscape vulnerability  Conflict: 8 countries since 1994  Flow pattern of the Blue Nile and White Nile
  34. 34. The Nile Basin• Small flow system-wide (~ 85 bcm/yr) 2% Amazon; 6% Congo; 12% Yangtze; 17% Niger; 25% Zambezi• Very limited infrastructure….  10% HEP potential developed  15% population with electricity  < 10% irrigable land irrigated (excluding Egypt & Sudan)• High rainfall variability across the Basin  Ethiopia: tributaries contribute 86-95% flow at Aswan  High equatorial flows lost in Sudd, about 50%; White Nile contributes 14%  Egypt: minimal rain & no flow additions 90% of population on 5% of Nile land  Sudan: 65% basin and confluence of major tributaries – now about 40%, 20%• High variability intra- & inter-annually (+/- 25 – 30%); high system losses
  35. 35. Proposed Jonglei canal
  36. 36. Nile Waters Pending IssuesDivision of the Nile waters allocated to theSudan under 1959 Nile Agreement Agreement bilateral Position of other riparians Status of 1929 AgreementPreservation of swamps waters in South Sudan Jonglei canal and other projectsNile Basin Cooperative FrameworkAgreement (CFA) South Sudan became member of NBI on 7/2012 Status of CFA Likely role of South Sudan on the CFA 45
  37. 37. ConclusionBoth countries face tremendous challenges ofpoverty, under-development and securityMajor issues still pending disputes withnorthern Sudan – oil, borders, Abyei, Nilewaters, citizenship, debt and assets Continued tension, clashes in Heglig, border areas Can they afford another war?Role of international community UN, USA, IGAD, AU, Arab League, PCAWhat are prospects for peaceful coexistence?46
  38. 38. Thank YouKaruma Falls
  39. 39. Thank You