Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction: Three geographic scales and three challenges

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International Day for Disaster Reduction at the World Bank

Disaster Risk Management in the Information Age

A joint training workshop by GICT, GFDRR, infoDev and LCSUW to mark the International Day for Disaster Reduction

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Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction: Three geographic scales and three challenges

  1. 1. Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction: Three geographic scales and three challenges Uwe Deichmann Development Research Group World Bank, Washington DC <udeichmann@worldbank.org> International Day on Disaster Risk Reduction at the World Bank Disaster Risk Management in the Information Age October 8-9, 2008
  2. 2. ICTs are widely used, but challenges remain <ul><li>Successful shift from disaster response to risk reduction </li></ul><ul><li>Bank support for risk analysis and risk management at all spatial scales </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial ICTs play a central role </li></ul><ul><li>GIS, GPS, remote sensing – linked by internet and other communication technologies </li></ul><ul><li>But: Technology is not the main problem. The bottlenecks are institutional! </li></ul>
  3. 3. Bank initiatives at three geographic scales <ul><li>Global natural disaster risk </li></ul><ul><li>Country catastrophic risk assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Local risk identification </li></ul><ul><li>Awareness raising, priority setting, screening tool </li></ul><ul><li>Improving baseline information, methodologies, tools </li></ul><ul><li>Support specific interventions: mitigation & transfer </li></ul>
  4. 4. The standard risk assessment model applies across spatial scales Damages Losses Mitigation or risk transfer policy analysis, costs/benefits e.g., average annual losses, loss exceedance curves damage ratios Hazard probability Exposure Vulnerability people, assets social/econ/phys conditions geophysical drivers
  5. 5. Combining information on hazards … Severe Storms, 1981 - 2000 World Bank/Columbia University: Natural Disaster Hotspots Study 2005 based on storm track data compiled by UNEP-GRID Geneva Cyclone Frequency Global Analysis: Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots
  6. 6. … and exposure … Population distribution
  7. 7. … to generate risk profiles Multi-hazard mortality risk hotspots Updated global analysis forthcoming in the UN/WB Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009
  8. 8. Country catastrophic risk assessment <ul><li>Operational risk assessments </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g., Central America Probabilistic Risk Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National level assessments in hotspot countries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Knowledge management: tools and guidance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MIRISK open source tool for risk assessment and guidelines on what to do about it </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Guidance Note for Common Country Catastrophic Risk Assessment Methodology (C3RAM)”, GFDRR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Post disaster information sharing: “Using Data for Disaster Response” (PREM/GFDRR) </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Local risk identification: Use of very high resolution satellite data <ul><li>Image derived physical risk factors and exposure data </li></ul><ul><li>Complements GPS field data collection </li></ul><ul><li>Supports local risk identification </li></ul><ul><li>Case studies: Legaspi (Phl) and Sana'a (Yem) </li></ul>
  10. 10. Challenges <ul><li>Capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient at local levels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leading to highly centralized disaster management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Coordination </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inter-agency coordination within countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internationally (UN/national/NGOs) during disaster response </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data and tools: limited access and black box models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data readiness </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. What to do <ul><li>Capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Learn from decentralization of other government functions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invest in learning at the local level </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Coordination </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Use mix of incentives and enforcement while minimizing coordination costs (e.g., spatial data infrastructure) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High level agreements on binding protocols for IT use during disaster response </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Invest in data and analytical tools as public goods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure data readiness well before disaster strikes </li></ul></ul>

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