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Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction: Three geographic scales and three challenges

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International Day for Disaster Reduction at the World Bank …

International Day for Disaster Reduction at the World Bank

Disaster Risk Management in the Information Age

A joint training workshop by GICT, GFDRR, infoDev and LCSUW to mark the International Day for Disaster Reduction

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  • 1. Spatial ICTs for risk identification and risk reduction: Three geographic scales and three challenges Uwe Deichmann Development Research Group World Bank, Washington DC <udeichmann@worldbank.org> International Day on Disaster Risk Reduction at the World Bank Disaster Risk Management in the Information Age October 8-9, 2008
  • 2. ICTs are widely used, but challenges remain
    • Successful shift from disaster response to risk reduction
    • Bank support for risk analysis and risk management at all spatial scales
    • Spatial ICTs play a central role
    • GIS, GPS, remote sensing – linked by internet and other communication technologies
    • But: Technology is not the main problem. The bottlenecks are institutional!
  • 3. Bank initiatives at three geographic scales
    • Global natural disaster risk
    • Country catastrophic risk assessment
    • Local risk identification
    • Awareness raising, priority setting, screening tool
    • Improving baseline information, methodologies, tools
    • Support specific interventions: mitigation & transfer
  • 4. The standard risk assessment model applies across spatial scales Damages Losses Mitigation or risk transfer policy analysis, costs/benefits e.g., average annual losses, loss exceedance curves damage ratios Hazard probability Exposure Vulnerability people, assets social/econ/phys conditions geophysical drivers
  • 5. Combining information on hazards … Severe Storms, 1981 - 2000 World Bank/Columbia University: Natural Disaster Hotspots Study 2005 based on storm track data compiled by UNEP-GRID Geneva Cyclone Frequency Global Analysis: Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots
  • 6. … and exposure … Population distribution
  • 7. … to generate risk profiles Multi-hazard mortality risk hotspots Updated global analysis forthcoming in the UN/WB Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2009
  • 8. Country catastrophic risk assessment
    • Operational risk assessments
      • E.g., Central America Probabilistic Risk Assessment
      • National level assessments in hotspot countries
    • Knowledge management: tools and guidance
      • MIRISK open source tool for risk assessment and guidelines on what to do about it
      • “ Guidance Note for Common Country Catastrophic Risk Assessment Methodology (C3RAM)”, GFDRR
      • Post disaster information sharing: “Using Data for Disaster Response” (PREM/GFDRR)
  • 9. Local risk identification: Use of very high resolution satellite data
    • Image derived physical risk factors and exposure data
    • Complements GPS field data collection
    • Supports local risk identification
    • Case studies: Legaspi (Phl) and Sana'a (Yem)
  • 10. Challenges
    • Capacity
      • Insufficient at local levels
      • Leading to highly centralized disaster management
    • Coordination
      • Inter-agency coordination within countries
      • Internationally (UN/national/NGOs) during disaster response
    • Content
      • Data and tools: limited access and black box models
      • Data readiness
  • 11. What to do
    • Capacity
      • Learn from decentralization of other government functions
      • Invest in learning at the local level
    • Coordination
      • Use mix of incentives and enforcement while minimizing coordination costs (e.g., spatial data infrastructure)
      • High level agreements on binding protocols for IT use during disaster response
    • Content
      • Invest in data and analytical tools as public goods
      • Ensure data readiness well before disaster strikes

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