Project “Central Eurasia”The project is covers political, economic, security, and energy issues in CentralEurasia and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Russia, China, Central Asia, and insome aspects – India, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia. Country and regional levelrelationships within Eurasia are explored. The issues of regional integration, activitiesof the countries within regional institutions, country and regional level relationships,policy of Russia, China, and other major players in Central Asia are widely researchedand discussed.
Reserves, extraction and consumption Known reserves Oil – 6-8% of the worlds oil – about 9-13 billion tons Gas – 27-29% of the worlds natural gas – about 40-50 trillion cubic meters Extraction/Production Oil – 11-13% – about 480-520 million tons Gas – 16-18% – about 640-690 billion cubic meters Consumption Oil – 6-8% – about 240-280 million tons Gas – 10-12% – about 430-470 billion cubic meters Note: during the last 40 years, the fuels used for electricity generation in thermal power stations were mainly natural gas and oil – about 50% in the energy balance/mix
Export The annual export of hydrocarbons: - 240 million tons of oil - 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas Russia’s impact is limited by: - post-soviet space - European Union - Turkey
Ukraine: 65-70% of Ukrainian needs for oil(about 4 million tones) and about 75% needsfor gas (about 40-50 billion cubic meters)Belorussia: almost all of the oil and gas needsof Belorussia – over 20 million tones of oil and22 billion cubic meters of gasMoldova: almost all needs of Moldova for oiland gas (about 0,5 million tones of oil and 4billion cubic meters of gas)EU: 30-33% of the EU needs for oil (about 200million tones) and about 20% needs for naturalgas(about 100 billion cubic meters)Turkey: about 25% of the Turkey’s needs forgas (about 26 billion cubic meters)China: some Chinas demand for oil – about3% of needs (15 million tons)
Dependence • the markets of raw materials EU: about 80% volume of oil exports and about 50% volume of gas exports Ukraine: about 20% volume of gas exports and 1-2% volume of oil exports Turkey: 12-14% volume of gas exports Belorussia: 12-13% volume of oil exports and about 10% of gas exports China: 6% volume of oil exports • the world and regions (especially European) pricing environment: 60-70% of Russian state budget are revenues from oil and gas export
• the advanced foreign technology and investment necessary to extractmore and more difficult to extract oil and gas, transport them from deep in Siberiaand the northern territories of the Russian segment of Eurasia
• the foreign tanker fleet: since its almost not• transport infrastructure in Europe and Turkey (both land and sea), on which exported most of the Russian energy resources, particularly hydrocarbons: about 50% of exported oil export (110-130 million tones) and about 90% of exported gas (a little less 200 billion cubic meters)Russia is sufficient strongly dependenton controlled by Turkey Bosporus andDardanelles and controlled byDenmark Skagerrak given that a largesupply of oil (more than 30% volume ofexports, a little less than 100 milliontons annually) are made through seaterminals.
Future Forecasting future is a question of trying to calculate the effects of a number of complex and unknown variables. Many assumptions must be made to arrive at what can only be considered a rough estimate, even for the short term (up to 5 years), even more so for the medium term (up to 10 years) and long term (up to 20 years). Russia planed to increase its oil extraction by 25-40% by the year 2020 (from 480-520 to 660 million tones) and its gas extraction by 30-40% (from 640-690 to 900 billion cubic metres). Russia also planed to increase its oil exports by about 90% (from 240 to 450 million tones) and its gas exports by 60% (from 200 to 316 billion cubic metres).
In practice, however, these plans are very unrealistic: it is quite obvious thatRussia’s geography cannot be radically altered, either now or in the future ...According to my team analysis and prognosis, Russia’s oil and gas export willdecrease on 10-30% in the short and medium terms (5-10 years), and probably on50-70% in the long term (20 years) perspectives.But this is the topic of future research and presentation ...