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Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam
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Pipeline, policies & regulation sudha malingam

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  • 1. Asia Energy Security Summit 2012Pipelines: Policies, Regulations & RestrictionsSudha Mahalingam, Colombo Feb 29-Mar 1, 2012
  • 2. Salience of Natural Gas Gas as bridge fuel for this century Abundance, climate-friendly, availability in the neighbourhood Longer pipelines, transcontinental LNG makes it fungible Asia-Pacific has 70% growth in LNG Capacities Is LNG price getting globalised, delinked from crude?
  • 3. Primary Energy Mix World India renewa renewa nuclear nuclear bles hydro 1% bles 1% hydro 5% 1% 5% 6% gas coal 11% 30%gas24% coal 52% oil 30% oil 34%
  • 4. Natural Gas  India’s consumption of natural gas has risen faster than any other fuel in the recent years.Current Sector-wise  Industries such as power generation, fertilizer and consumption petrochemical production are shifting towards natural gas and play a dominant role in creating demand for it. others 10% % Share / CGD CAGR weights 6% 9.0%- power 43% 9.189100%Petroc power 21.37% fertilizer 5% 30% 1.500000%hemic 43% petrochemicals 13.60% 11% 1.496000% als 11% fertiliz Natural Gas demand CAGR 12.185100% er 30%  Using the above Natural gas CAGR, we forecast the demand 20 years hence. However, assuming that slowly the CAGR with match the GDP of India, we use g=10% Total demand 263 mmscmd from 11th year and g=7% from 16th year.
  • 5. Natural Gas Demand Natural Gas Demand 450 387.819 400 Billion cubic meter 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2020-21 2027-28 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2028-29 2029-30 YearSince the only mode of transportation of Natural Gas on land is bypipelines only, so by the year 2030, the Natural Gas pipeline capacitywill be 387.819 bcm =1062.5178 MMSCMD ≈ 1100 MMSCMD
  • 6. Natural Gas: FutureOpportunities Import of gas through pipeline and in the form of LNG. Increase the capacity of import terminals for LNG to 26 million tonnes per year from 13.7 million tonnes. LNG terminals in India: Location Capacity (MMTPA) Status Dahej 10 to 14 Existing with Augmentation Hazira 2.5 to 5 Existing with Augmentation Dhabol 5 Under construction Kochi 5 Under construction Mundra 6.5 Proposed Ennore 5 Proposed Pipavav - Proposed Kakinada - Proposed Paradip, Dhamra, Gopalpur - Proposed Mangalore - Proposed Jamnagar - Proposed
  • 7. How do we incentiviseLNG? Asian sellers & Asian buyers – Australia, Indonesia, PNG, Malaysia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan China, India, Taiwan, S.Korea Common user terminals? Regulated cost-plus tariffs?
  • 8. Natural Gas: Future OpportunitiesTurkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI)pipeline: 38mmscmd of Gas to India. Schlumberger, estimates an initial gas-in-place 300-2,100 trillion cubic feet (TCF) in Indian shale gas basins in Damodar Valley. Reliance’s KG D6 field has proven reserves of just 7-8 TCF. India’s pipeline network needs expansion to get the gas to market. Investment required: Rs 350 billion or US $7 billion
  • 9. Journey to the Year 2030 Natural Gas Pipelines 12000 Kms LENGTH 45000 Kms 300 mmscmd CAPACI 1100 mmscmd TY Petroleum Product Pipelines 13000 Kms LENGTH 30000 Kms 74 MMT CAPACI 400 MMT TY
  • 10. How do we get there? Policy : 33% common carrier Tax breaks for common carrier capacity
  • 11. Regulations - PNGRB Authorisation – Trunk & CGD Tariff Common Carrier Access Code Affiliate Code TSSSS
  • 12. Existing Pipelines HBJ + GREP -5340km Dahej-Uran-Dabhol – 744 km EWPL – 1385 km Dadri-Panipat -132 km Regional networks in Mumbai, Gujarat, Cauvery Basin Assam, Tripura etc Total length: 13170 km
  • 13. Pipeline grid in India
  • 14. Licences Issued prior toPNGRB Chainsa-Jajjar-Hissar Dadri Bhawana Nangal Kochi-Bangalore-Mangalore Jagdishpur-Haldia Dabhol-Bangalore Kakinada-Howrah Kakinada-Vijayawada-Chennai Chennai-Tuticorin Chennai-Bangalore-Mangalore
  • 15. Licenses issued by PNGRB Mallavaram-Bhopal-Bhilwada-2000 km Mehsana-Bhatinda -1600 km Bhatinda-Jammu-Srinagar -725 km Surat –Paradeep – 2000 km
  • 16. Challenges Chicken or egg? State or Market? Viability gap funding Disparities in tariff Stranded capacities – market risk? National Gas Management System Differing taxation precludes swaps?

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