Mandeep mann_kolkata

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  • The figure, at face value, may look daunting but in real terms could be narrowed down to a few trouble spots or belts ; Nadia and Murshidabad and Birbhum ; Area under 20 more PS would be added to 28 already included and affected by Maoist Threats
  • A closer examination of the violence prone districts could possibly reduce the actual footprint by say another 20 to 30 per cent
  • the security grid so established should form the basis of protecting (orguarding) the populaceand logistic bases for kinetic operations of security forces as well as deny logistical support to insurgents
  • cover the entire area to obtain actionable Intelligence using HUMINT and technical resources (radio intercepts/UAV surveillance /WAAS sorties Coverage/satellite imagery. (BFSR/heat sensors /thermal mapping / UAV’s/satellite imagery/WAAS).
  • Internal security is going to remain an issue of concern for a long time and we can not always depend on Army( can 40 – 50 Km on foot and in case of Heptrs, can operate up to a distance of 200 KM from the bases)
  • Large extent of the area, difficult geography/terrain, cultural and language complexity and lack of infrastructure and communications. Intelligence collection, tactical response, comd & control, as well as governance and information campaigns have to be tackled simultaneously
  • This will make Intelligence more transparent as well as reduce redundancies and element of error. Humongous data can be analyzed and therefore better chances of quality analysis and prevent corrupt and age old archaic practices
  • This is the question I will leave it for you all to ponder and debate. Look at what happened to railways. See the IT revolution and BPO industry. Countering Terrorism with Intelligence as well Operational capability of Security forces is what that will make or mar the way we do things. Please gentle man use your influences as well as wherewithal to make this country not only grow but maintain the inclusiveness in the growth as well as prevent it from being affected by incidents of terror which as all of the previous speakers have explained are going to be even more heinous and lethal.
  • Broken Windows Theory. No place is safe and unsafe places can also be made safe with better planning Look for abnormalities and see and prepare organizations for same

Transcript

  • 1. Strategic and OperationalImperatives to Tackle Naxalism & Urgent Need of Technology Augmentation Mandeep Mann Orkash Services Pvt Ltd
  • 2. About OrkashOrkash is an India headquartered, international management-consulting and high-technologyR&D company operating in the following areas: ― Investment & Transaction Advisory Support ― Operational Risk and Security Risk Management ― Strategic Business & Market Intelligence ― Battlefield Management, Intelligence, Decision Support & Homeland Security PlatformsOn the technology side, ORKASH is focused on creating new technology applications (and thehighly-scalable back-end infrastructure) to plug the gap between information access (searchengines, etc.) and information analysis (human-intelligence). These are designed to supportdecision makers in the business, the government and the security agencies. The company hascutting edge technology and R&D expertise across: – AI systems, NLP and Expert Engines – Massively large and parallel data-mining systems – Automated Intelligence Analysis, Business Intelligence & Decision Support Analytics – Geographical Information Systems – Parallel computing, clusters & cloud computing© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 3. SCOPE Perspective – Areas under the influence of Naxalism Counter Insurgency Strategy Left Wing Extremism Cost Benefit Analysis Operational Imperatives Intelligence Challenges Technology Augmentation Q&A© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 3
  • 4. What would Guerilla do “There is nothing in the purely military pages of Mao, Nguyen Giap, Che Guevara or other manuals of guerrilla warfare which a traditional guerrilla or band leader would do other than simple common sense.” “Failure to prepare is preparing to fail “© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 4
  • 5. Characteristics of Naxalism Affected Areas Spans in nine states and includes some thirty-five districts (highly impacted districts) In terms of acreage, the Naxal belt translates into approximately 209,787 square kilometres. • Dantewada, Bastar, Bijapur and Narayanpur in Chattisgarh (32,189 sq.kms) • Malkinigiri and Rayagada in Orissa (12,814 sq. kms), • West and East Singhbhum in Jharkhand (8,884 sq. kms), • Gadchiroli in Maharashtra (9,275 sq. kms), • West Midnapore in West Bengal (9,296 sq. kms); Bankura and Purulia not included Mainly rural areas alongwith large contiguous forested areas with low-habitat Complex demographic profile - tribal communities Limited communications and connectivity infrastructure
  • 6. Area Characteristics - Implications • Affected area is too large for military oriented classical anti- insurgency operations - will consume too many troops (in millions) • Demographic complexity and strong political ideological factors further limit pursuit of a classical anti-insurgency approach • Isolation of Naxals from population centers and habitation clusters an imperative. Large contiguous forest areas to some extent are an advantage for achieving such isolation • Command & Control and operational logistics difficult for the anti- insurgent • Reliance on electronic communications by Naxals can be exploited, as also their (semi-permanent) bases in jungles leave signatures that can be detected and monitored by surveillance platforms
  • 7. Centre of Gravity of Naxalism Identified• Vulnerable area identified within this - Not more than 70,000 sq km.• An operational coy can dominate 5X 5 Sq Km• At present deployment is 348 coy’s. Each Coy thus may be covering on an average of 150 - 200 Sq km i.e 6 times thinner than required.• Each police post in Chhattisgarh covers 450 Sq Km. Communication infrastructure does not exist, lacks resources to tackle any threat• We need to prioritise, if tactical weight of operations has to succeed
  • 8. Success Ingredients of the Operational Strategy : Punjab Three Pronged strategy • The Quality of Local Intelligence (police driven; with focus on grass root ‘Thana’ level operational int, collated together at State level for strategic picture) • A Capacity for Synchronized Operations (police led) - Stress was on Kinetic operations • Transformation of the Punjab Police, and the Degree of Political Resolve Objective of strategy • Objective of operations was to break the collective mental paralysis of police through mass-psychological transformation and operational successes • Army was used as an "Anvil” and police was used as “Hammer” • Empowering of Police Stations; Proper Documentation of all crimes; Generated Information which was collated meticulously • Exceptional police leadership at the SPs level
  • 9. Multi Pronged Strategy • Local Community Oriented Developmental ( Education, Jobs, NERGA, PDS Distribution, children mid-day meal scheme) and Governance Initiatives needed in support of ant-insurgency efforts • Specialized Information and Psychological campaigns to neutralize Naxal’s ideological campaign and influence • Capacity Building of Security Forces with emphasis on jungle craft training and intelligence gathering • Operational and Tactical aspects for existing forces need to be stressed, and augmented through technological resources
  • 10. Advantages : CI Grid Strategy • Create a dynamic CI Grid based on sustainability of operation through prioritization of AOR based on Naxalite threats and Terrain/Demography Configuration (jungle, sparse habitation, rural, urban, etc.) • Maintain unified command, control and communication along interstate boundaries for better sharing of information • Habitat areas both rural and urban clusters dominated and isolated (from insurgents) by local police in conjunction with paramilitary forces with local administration infrastructure co located • Large dense jungle areas sparsely populated need to be left unoccupied but kept under surveillance using aerial, ground surveillance, radio interception and HUNINT resources (deployed tactically on the fringes of jungles) • Developing actionable intelligence and surgical strike capabilities (police Cdo units) in jungles as well as in other areas
  • 11. Available OptionsOption – IIITight CI GridCRPF , IRB/SAPused Police commando’s raised Units in existing withOption - III Additional commando’s units) Raise more CRPF & IRB and augmented CI Grid – Police and (CRPF & IRB and for surgical strikes CRPF used to haveIntelligencecommando’sCRPF/IRB targetwith 25 % local youth to psychologically break the willand police Raise more used to units ” liberated Zones” to target operational &effective CI Grid in Naxal affected areas and employ themto create aninsurgents inIntelligence Grid in critical areas to force Naxalites into jungles . Use Special Forces /policeof insurgents. CRPF and IRB units act can be denied by Wide Area Surveillanceliberated zones. Less sensitive areasas anvil and consolidate near population centers.commando’s for surgical strikes in jungles. Create effective population control measures as wellIntelligence capability can be augmented through additional resourcesSorties(WAAS) and population control measures ( controlling supplies) as well as aerialas surveillance measures using intelligence units augmented with technical equipment tosurveillancecover difficult terrain Implications Implications • •ImplicationsIt is mostbe a costly option, augmentsentail raising 300 new CRPF Bns It will cost effective as it as it will operational dynamics • • It will cater to developmental not effective tocreatingliberated areas Manpower Intensive, yet needs without target large security force. The • Needs intelligence units created can be from capability in Police commando’s • capacity building for surprise and deception good incentive for sharing Lesser chances of creating strike locals thus • In absence of effective grid it will be a wasted strategy information to synergize operations as well as to control population • Though a cheaper option, but may alienate population in case of human righton • Deny insurgents free space using augmented technical intelligence based violation by police communication and intelligence Grid
  • 12. Police Capacity Building - Cost • Existing Police and Paramilitary personnel need to be trained in Jungle warfare - Police and Paramilitary personnel recruited from this region and trained for insurgency; courses can be tailor made for them • Create Intermediate Leadership - Short tactical courses to train DSP’s & SP’s on operational tactics and jungle craft • Additional Indian Reserve Battalions( IRB) created : IRB concepts in Manipur and Nagaland quite successful; Each will cost approx 30 - 33Cr • Raise Special Intelligence Units : Raised for each affected state (will cost 20 Cr each) . Each unit can cover an area of 25X35 Km • CTJW schools raised for continuation training – One per affected state on the lines of CTJW Kanker (cost will be 6 - 8 Cr each) • Create one Special Force/Police commando battalion per state - Fully trained and equipped by the latest weaponry and communication systems as per Army Special forces concept ( for Jungle warfare); each will cost 44 Cr. Army can be used to train them operationally.© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 12
  • 13. Deployment Voids: CRPF/SAP Area under Maoists Critical Area state wise Vulnerable Existing Additional Battalion Area Units needed ( 5 Years) Total Deployment Sq Km Bns State Units Ratio Needed In Sq Km Thin in No of 58 Chhattis 32189 215 148 40 51 Times ( X ) garh Rest of the Area covered byTotal Area 208787 1392 24 Orissa 12814 85 59 30 19 surveillance and denied using surgical strikes along withCritical Area 72458 483 8 Jharkhan 8884 59 41 25 16 Information d campaignsPriority Area 58000 387 7 Maharas 9275 56 43 23 20 htraVulnerable West 50000 334 6 9296 56 43 26 17Area BengalWe are 6- 8 Times Thinnerin critical areas - Major 483 334 144 123 67Challenge for security forces
  • 14. Units to be Raised and Cost ( next 5 Years) Area to be Existing New Cost Per Cost (in Crores) covered No of Units Units Units Unit Units in sq Km Needed Deployed neededTotal Area 72458 483 58 425 33 14025 Covered Para Military 18750 123 40 83 33 2739(CRPF/IRB)State Police 627 7950 37 18 19 33 (SAP)Intelligence 15000 25 0 30 20 600 UnitsCommando NA 5 0 8 44 352 Bn CTJW NA 10 NA 10 8 80 School 41700 4398 Crores
  • 15. Cost to Benefit Analysis Commando Battalion CRPF/IRB Battalion Cost Cost Intelligence Unit CTJW School Cost for Cost of 120 Units Cost of 8 Units Cost of 30 Units Cost of 10 units In Crores In Crores In Crores In Crores Training 1 3 2 1Leadership 1 2 1 1Admin 12 10 1 1Transport 1 2 1 1Equipment 5 10 4 2 Intelligence Fund 1 2 5 0 Salary 12 15 6 2 Cost Per Unit 33 44 20 8Total Cost 2739 352 600 80 Total 4398 Crores Cost to benefit 4398/$100Billion 4398/466200 $ 1 ~ Rs 46.62 Cost to benefit Ratio 0.94 % of the Benefit
  • 16. Special Forces augmented with Intelligence Special Forces ( Strike commando Battalions) • They are force multiplier to break the psychological superiority of insurgents as well as provide surgical strike capability • They can operate well away from bases and can target liberated zones • They can synergize operations with real time intelligence obtained in operations • They can target the top leadership with minimum collateral damage Intelligence Units • To augment the field intelligence effort as well as use specialized intelligence equipment • These units will be equipment intensive and not manpower intensive • They will have advanced communication , surveillance and monitoring equipment • They can double up as surveillance and communication units on eradication of insurgency
  • 17. Intelligence Challenges and augmentation through technology© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 18. Intelligence and Operational Challenges to Connect Dots..• Intelligence is generated at multiple levels and consumed at operational level• Manual analysis of large data is difficult - with automation it can be quickly sorted and interpreted through link analysis• Linkages of historical data essential for better interpretation• GIS and 3 D imagery linked to database systems are powerful tools to interpret in real time• Pull Model of Intelligence is not efficient, it needs to be pushed down as a consumable commodity
  • 19. Intelligence Grid over Command and Control grid : Features • Databases managed and updated in real time – generated at grass root level as intelligence collection, and integration of data through database systems and data- mining • Data, Images and records available online across different levels of operational assets, facilitating analysis and authentication • Video Image sharing through - powerful tool for planning operations • Mapping of population ( ID Management) linking it with developmental activities and demographical survey’s; it will also facilitate better governance and informational campaigns at grass root level • Finger printing and verifying suspects using palm top devices from the data bases is a powerful use of technology
  • 20. Intelligence Equipment • Surveillance devices for day and night surveillance video/thermal image employing UAV, RPV’s and Aerial surveillance – It can give you virtual results • GIS Platform for collation of intelligence and terrain mapping – online accessibility • Aerial surveillance technologies for interpreting images for Insurgent Camps, logistic movements, as well as forest • Management and tracking of suspects in the population by rolling out biometric ID management system (UID?)
  • 21. Technology - Strategic Level• Satellite, Air Imagery and RPV based monitoring of forested areas• Radio Interception through automated Software• Image interpretation Team can take resources of Armed Forces as also ISRO to initially get the training as well as utilize its expertise• Safeguard strategic assets as well as provide real time information• Data mining and link analysis for intelligence analysis and data visualization for decision support• GIS platforms for integrating tactical planning with intelligence inputs• IED jammers, explosive detectors and other tactical gear for troops
  • 22. Network Analysis and Data visualization Manual approach Graphic based approach Structured analysis approach4(1) Manually creation of (1) Graphically representation (1)Advanced analytical capabilitiesassociation matrix by of insurgent networks using to assist investigationidentifying the relations tools such as Link Analysisthrough raw data (2) It can help in identifying (2) Helpful in visualization of networks to mining of large volumes(2) Helpful in investigation, large amount of relationship of data to discover usefulbecomes ineffective where data but without analytical knowledge and create intelligencedatasets are very large functionality. about the structure and organization of criminal networks - Data Mining - Social Network Analysis - Pattern Tracing and interactions 22
  • 23. Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) Meticulous Emergence of India operational and strategic as a target of planning transnational terrorism Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) Organised Crime Linkages Recruitment is becoming (local & international) local focusing on computer literate youth in big Impacted by neighborhood cities Geo-strategic forces Expanding logistical Mass scale home base Attack - Media Attention© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 24
  • 24. Information Asymmetry - Mining for real time intelligence • Requirement for massive high-performance parallel-processing clusters/cloud computing - consisting of hundreds of servers • Network centric data mining platforms • Massive databases - very specialized database architecture alarbi.alhindi@gmail.com alarbi_gujarat@yahoo.com.uk al_arbi_delhi@yahoo.com Banking and Card Usage LocationInternet accountAccount: Hazi Al IP addressPassword: Hazi_123 MAC address Multiple Sims Metadata Email tracing Telephone Multiple Handsets Historical data analysis would train expert engines to raise triggers and red flags. Real time data mining will generate trends and patterns in the usage© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 25
  • 25. Convergence – Human Int and Tech Int Intelligence Administrative - Agencies - Databases Databases Processing Raw Data into Human Intelligence Usable form Tech Intelligence Internet based information Datamining Better Information collection Collection and investigation (Track Back) Identifying Automated analysis of Triggers & Patterns structured & unstructured data Enhanced Prevent-Prepare-Respond-Recover Structure© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 26
  • 26. What needs to be done - Intelligence • Automation of Intelligence from Tactical level upwards • Integration of HUMINT and various sources of TECHINT • Create Push Model for Flow of Information • Display information sources and intelligence on one platform • Create intelligence maps based on GIS platform© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 27. Unconventional Conflict & Intelligence Management System (UCIMS)© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 28. ORKASH UCIMS FEATURES  Advanced intelligence analysis and intelligence management system  Integrated and networked information system - identifies patterns and trends in intelligence, socio-political events etc  Integrates ground and air surveillance systems  Tactical operations planning modules - 3-D terrain on GIS  Customizable network-centric command and control system 
  Capable of automated visualization of operational and situational updates
 on maps and satellite imagery  Enables collaborative exchange of operational information amongst multiple teams operating from different locations
  Seamless - Pattern analysis, Data-mining, OLAP, network-graphs and link-analysis© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 29. Network Centric Command and Control System • Translates information advantage to competitive advantage through robust networking of well- informed geographically dispersed forces through a centralized Command and Control System • Network Allow Enhance Increase Enable - diverse information Situational mission C4I entities Sharing Awareness effectiveness© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 30. Intelligence Challenges and Connecting the Dots..• Intelligence is generated at multiple levels and consumed at operational level• Manual analysis of large data is difficult - with automation it can be quickly sorted and interpreted through link analysis• Linkages of historical data essential for better interpretation• GIS and 3 D imagery linked to database systems are powerful tools to interpret in real time• Pull Model of Intelligence is not efficient, it needs to be pushed down as a consumable commodity© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 31
  • 31. Intelligence collaboration process Tactical decision making Intelligence sources Socio political events Data repository Demographics Actionable - Raw data - Analysis of data intelligence - Intelligence creation Sat images, maps - Intelligence distribution Technical inputs Intelligence collaboration process© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 32
  • 32. Semantic Enrichment Semantic enrichment is the process of creating or associating semantic tags in unstructured data or text, usually involving concepts, entities, relationships, events and properties described in an ontology or rule based Benefits : Adding semantic metadata tags to the original unstructured data enables advanced correlation and data fusion capabilities. Enables concept , event and relationship extraction and automated metadata tagging. Commonsense Concepts Engine Engine D1 D2 Classification Semantically D3 Document Results . Classification Enriched . Concepts Tagged Documents Dn Documents +Documents (XML) Entities Semantic Enrichment© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 33
  • 33. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 34. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 35. Combining Data Mining and Link Analysis© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 36
  • 36. OLAP analysis© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 37
  • 37. Network Analysis and Data visualization Graphics- Manual Structured based (1) Manually creation of (1) Graphically representation of (1)Advanced analytical capabilities to assist association matrix by identifying insurgent networks using tools such investigation the relations through raw data as Link Analysis (2) It can help in identifying networks to (2) Helpful in investigation, (2) Helpful in visualization of large mining of large volumes of data to discover becomes ineffective where amount of relationship data but useful knowledge and create intelligence datasets are very large without analytical functionality. about the structure and organization of criminal networks - Data Mining - Social Network Analysis - Pattern Tracing and interactions© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 38
  • 38. Past historical factual information© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 39
  • 39. ORKASH-UCIMS on a geospatial platform© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 40. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 41. Intelligence & Operations Management© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 42
  • 42. Connecting the Dots..© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 43. Location Intelligence© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 44
  • 44. Tracking events news with location based search© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 45
  • 45. Advanced Search Techniques for Location Intelligence© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 46
  • 46. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 47. Monitoring Movement of Tactical Assets© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 48
  • 48. Air Surveillance© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 49
  • 49. Take Away for the Industry • Assess risks which organizations are faced with • Prepare and upgrade its Infrastructure • Ensure Training of its Personnels on a regular basis ( Basic, Orientation and Advanced) • Make Security resources more accountable and Technologically savvy ( Basic Steps needed) • Bring in visible change which is measurable for all security© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
  • 50. THANK YOU Orkash Services Pvt Ltd 75 C, Sector 18 Gurgaon 122 015 Haryana, India Phone: +91 124 4033773 +91 9833298292 Contact@Orkash.com www.orkash.com© 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. …ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty 52