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Mandeep mann

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  • My Background Need for a better system. While in the Army we need better tech platform for whole lot of activities . Army has always remained manpower intensive, it needs to get smarter and look for intelligent solution based on scientific principles. Intelligence and Security Concerns
  • Moore's law precisely describes a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries
  • You know how many servers does Google use – Any guess 4 - 5 Lacs
  • Look what happened prior to 26/11 and we failed in so many instances ?????
  • A closer examination of the violence prone districts could possibly reduce the actual footprint by say another 20 to 30 per cent
  • Distinct difference in the strategy and operational concepts has been seen in Naxalism – But can we say the same what our security forces are doing ? I read an article recently on Gadichorly after 05 Oct incident in which 5 cops of ITBP were killed. The Maoists have infact come to the police post and given open challenge to them. Police forces have stopped doing patrolling in those areas. I do not blame them – they are not prepared and nor any one is thinking in trg them. We can continue to think that what can we do and do nothing as its best that we do not make any mistakes. Naxalite dominated areas will continue to remain as another place of posting to side line the potential trouble creators from police and bueracracy. How and when will we change
  • “ cripple India’s economic growth, destroy national confidence in its political system, attack its open society and provoke destabilizing communal rivalries”, all of which are seen as a hindrance to establishing an Islamic Caliphate (Tellis 2008). At the centre of this phenomenon are two Islamist militant groups – the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the HUJI-B, both of which are part of the International Islamic Front (IIF) of which al Qaeda is a founding member, and are committed to the cause of establishing an Islamic Caliphate.
  • Int agencies are faced with multiferious issues besides the turf battle for information and jurisdiction part. Data is assymmetrical form, it is humongous and therefore needs parallel computing on HPC platforms
  • Automate Int have a uniform platform on which you can add and analyse multi dimensional information seamlessly
  • Multiple sources as well levels makes sharing not only impossible, but is fraught with inter departmentmental turf battles and therefore another challenge for political leadership to decide. As a country we are argumentative for even a small idea and therefore it is a major challenge to take some hard decisions
  • Promote all source Info, its automation, Analysis based on technological platforms for technical as well as humint – thus arrive at better processed intelligence. We have very good analysts, but not many sources of information
  • The intelligence gaps can be reduced through various layers and also by using collective intelligence tools
  • Tgt Centric Int models can be created – which makes better visualization and prediction using trend analysis
  • Need of the hour is to converge the existing resources of HUMINT as well as technology to enhance real time intelligence and be able to predict the un foreseen by understanding patterns - which is humanly not possible and not achievable
  • This will make Intelligence more transparent as well as reduce redundancies and element of error. Humongous data can be analyzed and therefore better chances of quality analysis and prevent corrupt and age old archaic practices
  • UCIMS is designed for Uncon conflicts; but its data points can be suitably modified for any other Security and business intelligence environment for eg bank wants to monitor the loans. Traffic police wants to monitor accidents as well as time and location specific sensitivities. It can give various outputs, which can allow decision makers to take appropriate decisions
  • Warfare and intelligence is becoming very complexed and just having HUMINT is not enough and therefore needs more network based approach which collates as well as demistifies the intelligence from unstructured data bases to structured analyses to derive the intelligence – Helpful in 9/11 and 26/11 kind of investigations as well as bring actual perpetrators to their final destination or Karma
  • What it does is that it shows linkages and locations – which otherwise remain uncollated and mere another file to be lost in a fire or organizational inefficiencies. Long time ago we were told that government records are being automated. Even today except for Hyderabad which has done reasonably well under the CM Mr Naidu, rest of the states still function on the basis of “chirkut” in the names of land records and therefore allows corruption and greed to creep in allowing land scams and missing files. As aware citizens we need to be responsible as well as ask necessary questions in the right forum. So that decision makers do not shy away from their responsibilities as well as are forced to take hard decisions
  • This is the question I will leave it for you all to ponder and debate
  • Transcript

    • 1.
      • TACKLING INTERNAL SECURITY THREATS AND UNCONVENTIONAL CONFLICTS
      • ENHANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR INTELLIGENCE
      • AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
      Mandeep Mann Orkash Services Pvt Ltd
    • 2. Future Technological challenges © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
      • Technological advancement impacting the world as well as how we think .
      • Internet revolution, social networking sites as well as world is becoming increasingly networked and flat
      • Innovative ideas and Time to market (T2M) and to masses decreasing and is changing in geometric proportions – at a much faster pace. Interdicting an idea with better technology or exploiting it with using different tools makes or mars survival of a company
      • Flat world and connected world poses different challenges in the domain of security and Intelligence systems
      • Intelligence is no longer just physical source based , but it combines technology – as a backbone. Intelligence process has become tech innovative and savvy both in corporate as well as for security environment ; uses social networks and Twitter and facebooks have potential to break marriages as well as nations security infrastructure – Negative opinions or forcing decisions
      • It is faster, smarter and automated. Uses multiple tools and analytics from visual to thermal.
      • This has posed even different challenges in the field of data mining and computation. No longer people are talking of CPU based computation - GPU and Cuda softwares are being talked to overcome the barrier of reducing the chip size to computation speed. How many of us are familiar with these three names
      • Moore’s law – Computation gets doubled in 18 months
      • Pranav Mistri’s – Presentation on using Sixth sense
      • Sabeer Bhatia’s - Revolution in Mail service
    • 3. 1982 – 2007 ( Advancement in Computation and reduction in Size © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Moore's law - Doubling of transistor counts every two years. It is driving technological and social change
    • 4. Technologically Smarter Solution in Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
        • Massively large Data for Voice and Video
        • Needs parallel data-mining and computing systems
        • Decision Support Analytics for Business Intelligence
        • Geographical Information Systems - GPU based
        • Clusters & cloud computing - cost of computing reduced
      Need to automate Intelligence
    • 5. About Orkash
      • Orkash is an India headquartered, international management-consulting and high-technology R&D company operating in the following areas:
        • Investment & Transaction Advisory Support
        • Operational Risk and Security Risk Management
        • Strategic Business & Market Intelligence
        • Battlefield Management, Intelligence, Decision Support & Homeland Security Platforms
      • On the technology side, ORKASH is focused on creating new technology applications (and the highly-scalable back-end infrastructure) to plug the gap between information access (search engines, etc.) and information analysis (human-intelligence). These are designed to support decision makers in the business, the government and the security agencies. The company has cutting edge technology and R&D expertise across:
        • AI systems, NLP and Expert Engines
        • Massively large and parallel data-mining systems
        • Automated Intelligence Analysis, Business Intelligence & Decision Support Analytics
        • Geographical Information Systems
        • Parallel computing, clusters & cloud computing
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 6. Agenda © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Part -1 Indian Security Scenario Overview Part -2 Automating Intelligence creation - Intelligence creation - Correlating the 'concept of operations' Part-3 Tackling unconventional conflicts in India - UCIMS
    • 7. Changing security landscape of India © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty India has experienced a continued and an almost consistent security problem pertaining to: -Naxalism - Insurgency -Extremism -Organized crime Drivers of Transition: -Operational Sophistication -Ideological Evolution India's internal security scenario is in a very 'delicate' and a 'vulnerable' stage Unconventional conflicts and deteriorating security mechanisms have forced us to think beyond the routine 'guard and police' protection Essentially non existent, it is high time that India focuses on homeland security protection Long history of terrorism Terrorism Transition Internal Security Security Evolution Homeland Security
    • 8. Success Ingredients of the Operational Strategy : Punjab
      • Three Pronged strategy
      • The Quality of Local Intelligence (police driven; with focus on grass root ‘Thana’ level operational int, collated together at State level for strategic picture)
      • A Capacity for Synchronized Operations (police led) - Stress was on Kinetic operations
      • Transformation of the Punjab Police, and the Degree of Political Resolve
      • Objective of strategy
      • Objective of operations was to break the collective mental paralysis of police through mass-psychological transformation and operational successes
      • Army was used as an " Anvil” and police was used as “Hammer”
      • Empowering of Police Stations; Proper Documentation of all crimes; Generated Information which was collated meticulously
      • Exceptional police leadership at the SPs level
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd . … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 9. The previous wave .. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Date of attack Location (Scope of the attack) LEGEND KEY 21 October 2008 Imphal, Manipur (One device) 13 May 2008 Jaipur, Rajasthan (Eight devices) 25 July 2008 Bengaluru, Karnataka (Eight Devices) 26 July 2008 Ahmedabad, Gujarat (21 devices) 29-30 July 2008 Surat, Gujarat (18 devices) 13 September 2008 New Delhi (Six devices) 29 September 2008 Modasa, Gujarat (One device) 29 September 2008 Malegaon, Maharashtra (Two devices) 01 October 2008 Tripura, Agartala (Five devices) 30 October 2008 Guwahati, Assam (18 devices) 26-29 November 2008 Mumbai, Maharashtra (Multiple Attacks & Blasts) 27 September 2008 New Delhi (One device) 01January 2008 Rampur, U.P (Two devices)
    • 10. Major Naxalites Areas © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 11.
      • Critical area identified within this - Not more than 70,000 sq km. ( 35 Distts)
      • An operational coy can dominate 5X 5 Sq Km
      • At present deployment is 348 coy’s. Each Coy thus may be covering on an average of 150 - 200 Sq km i.e 6 times thinner than required.
      • Each police post in Chhattisgarh covers 450 Sq Km. Communication infrastructure does not exist, lacks resources to tackle any threat
      • We need to prioritise, if tactical weight of operations has to succeed
      Centre of Gravity of Naxalism Identified © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd . … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 12. Circa 2010: Transition Patterns - Naxalism © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Discontent among the 'strategic' arm of Naxals differences between groups supporting armed struggle and other, ready for negotiations Military arm of Naxals becoming aggressive Religion and caste becoming an issues Leveraging the political forces Ambiguous leadership Discontent among members Clash in recruitment and funding sources Naxalism in Transition Naxal Organization Indian government actions and 'reactions' Absence of constructive and 'crowd pulling' ideology
    • 13. Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Transition of terrorism in India (post 26/11) Organised Crime Linkages (local & international) Meticulous operational and strategic planning Recruitment is becoming local focusing on computer literate youth in big cities Emergence of India as a target of transnational terrorism Expanding logistical home base Mass scale Attack - Media Attention Impacted by neighborhood Geo-strategic forces
    • 14. Information Asymmetry - Mining for real time intelligence
      • Requirement for massive high-performance parallel-processing clusters/cloud computing - consisting of hundreds of servers
      • Network centric data mining platforms
      • Massive databases - very specialized database architecture
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Historical data analysis would train expert engines to raise triggers and red flags. Real time data mining will generate trends and patterns in the usage Multiple Sims Multiple Handsets Internet account Account: Hazi Al Password: Hazi_123 Location [email_address] [email_address] [email_address] IP address MAC address Metadata Email tracing Telephone Banking and Card Usage
    • 15. Challenges for the security forces © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Terrain & Demographic Information Intelligence collation from diverse sources Network centric operations & comd & control Technology Platforms Evolution of Organized crime Development of the Concept of Operations Strategic Challenges
    • 16. Intelligence for Ops – Major Challenge © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Information availability in multi agency envt Leveraging on predictive patterns Managing short term and long term op activities Planning and monitoring Information asymmetry Command and Control The single largest challenge is the creation of actionable intelligence for actual op execution
    • 17. Impetus on intelligence creation - why?
      • Develop and promote 'all source' information collection and analysis
      • Create operational integration
      • Automation of information collection to provide the necessary cue to strategists for future action
      • Facilitate the effective processing of large volumes of data, information tagging, archival and also retrieval
      • Identify and reduce collection of information redundancies, analysis of information etc
      • Improve counterintelligence support
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 18. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty The Intelligence Stack Strategic Intelligence Operational Intelligence Tactical Intelligence Tactical Intelligence Operational Intelligence Strategic Intelligence Intelligence Consumption Intelligence Creation
    • 19. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Technical Intelligence + Human Intelligence Predictive and Investigative Intelligence Intelligence Needs Granularity - Data Cubes WHEN WHO WHERE WHAT WHY
    • 20. The FOUR Pillars of Automated Intelligence Creation © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Information Extraction and Monitoring Semantic Analysis Geospatial Analysis Data Mining & Forensics
      • Extraction of data
      • from various
      • sources including
      • websites, blogs,
      • mobile phone,
      • emails and courier records
      • Banking
      • transactions, credit
      • card usage, travel
      • records
      • Monitoring of web
      • for any unusual
      • communication and
      • red flags
      Use of semantics to decipher the content Unstructured to structured data Using domain specific ontologies Network analysis Tools and analytics Analysis of the geospatial context and better data visualization Geospatial intelligence for effective decision making Location intelligence for better interpretation of networks & activities Data Mining on real time basis Analysis of trends and patterns of activities Internet & Cyber Forensics Target Centric Social Network Analysis Pattern Tracing and Tracking
    • 21. Automating Intelligence Creation - The Process Layers © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd . Information generation/extraction Semantic analysis Geospatial analysis Leverage ‘ collective int’
      • Where is the Intelligence Gap
          • access and extraction of information
            • language interpretation for the context, and removal of NOISE
              • search vs scan .
              • pattern tracking, granularity & visualization
      Data mining
    • 22. Target Centric Intelligence Model © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 23. Convergence of Intelligence – Data Base Mining Intelligence Agencies - Databases Administrative - Databases Tech Intelligence Datamining Processing Raw Data into Usable form Better Information Collection Internet based information collection and investigation (Track Back) Enhanced Prevent-Prepare-Respond-Recover Structure Identifying Triggers & Patterns Automated analysis of structured & unstructured data Human Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 24. What needs to be done © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Automation of Intelligence from Tactical level upwards Integration of HUMINT and various sources of TECHINT Create Push Model for Flow of Information Display information sources and intelligence on one platform Create intelligence maps based on GIS platform
    • 25. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Unconventional Conflict & Intelligence Management System (UCIMS)
    • 26. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
      • Advanced intelligence analysis and intelligence management system
      • Integrated and networked information system - identifies patterns and trends in intelligence, socio-political events etc
      • Integrates ground and air surveillance systems
      • Tactical operations planning modules - 3-D terrain on GIS
      • Customizable network-centric command and control system
      ORKASH UCIMS FEATURES
      • Capable of automated visualization of operational and situational updates
 on maps and satellite imagery
      • Enables collaborative exchange of operational information amongst multiple teams operating from different locations

      • Seamless - Pattern analysis, Data-mining, OLAP, network-graphs and link-analysis
    • 27. Network Centric Command and Control System
      • Translates information advantage to competitive advantage through robust networking of well-informed geographically dispersed forces through a centralized Command and Control System
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Network diverse entities Allow information Sharing Enhance Situational Awareness Enable - C4I Increase mission effectiveness
    • 28. Intelligence Challenges and Connecting the Dots..
      • Intelligence is generated at multiple levels and consumed at operational level
      • Manual analysis of large data is difficult - with automation it can be quickly sorted and interpreted through link analysis
      • Linkages of historical data essential for better interpretation
      • GIS and 3 D imagery linked to database systems are powerful tools to interpret in real time
      • Pull Model of Intelligence is not efficient, it needs to be pushed down as a consumable commodity
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 29. Intelligence collaboration process © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Intelligence sources Socio political events Demographics Sat images, maps Technical inputs Data repository - Raw data - Analysis of data - Intelligence creation - Intelligence distribution Actionable intelligence Tactical decision making Intelligence collaboration process
    • 30. Semantic Enrichment
      • Semantic enrichmen t is the process of creating or associating semantic tags in unstructured data or text, usually involving concepts, entities, relationships, events and properties described in an ontology or rule based
      • Benefits :
        • Adding semantic metadata tags to the original unstructured data enables advanced correlation and data fusion capabilities.
        • Enables concept , event and relationship extraction and automated metadata tagging.
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty (XML) D1 D2 D3 . . Dn Document Classification Classification Results Commonsense Engine Concepts Engine Concepts Tagged Documents + Entities Semantic Enrichment Semantically Enriched Documents Documents
    • 31. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 32. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 33. Combining Data Mining and Link Analysis © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 34. OLAP analysis © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 35. Inferenced Information Representation © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 36. Deeper relations between entities © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 37. Association between events © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 38. Network Analysis and Data visualization (1) Manually creation of association matrix by identifying the relations through raw data (2) Helpful in investigation, becomes ineffective where datasets are very large (1) Graphically representation of insurgent networks using tools such as Link Analysis (2) Helpful in visualization of large amount of relationship data but without analytical functionality. (1)Advanced analytical capabilities to assist investigation (2) It can help in identifying networks to mining of large volumes of data to discover useful knowledge and create intelligence about the structure and organization of criminal networks - Data Mining - Social Network Analysis - Pattern Tracing and interactions © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty Manual Graphics-based Manual Structured
    • 39. Past historical factual information © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 40. Visualizing Semantic Data Analysis in GIS Context
      • Visualization of the meta-data and the content – Creation of 'Visual' layers
      • Role of contextual scan -semantic
      • and geospatial
      • User created content and collective intelligence
      © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 41. ORKASH-UCIMS on a geospatial platform © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 42. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 43. Intelligence & Operations Management © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 44. Connecting the Dots.. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 45. Location Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 46. Tracking events news with location based search © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 47. Advanced Search Techniques for Location Intelligence © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 48. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 49. Monitoring Movement of Tactical Assets © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 50. Air Surveillance © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
    • 51. Points to Ponder © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty
      • Technology is here to stay – We can not hide behind our ignorance
      • Nor deny the users, through inept practices
      • Need automation of data bases and records - reduce inefficiencies to make this process more accountable
      • All of us know homeland security and defense for a country are key to achieve inclusive growth as well as prevent another kargil like intrusion
      What are we then waiting for ! Another Kargil or 26/11 and many more Dantewada’s?
    • 52. © 2010 - Orkash Services Pvt. Ltd. … ensuring Assurance in complexity and uncertainty THANK YOU Orkash Services Pvt Ltd 75 C, Sector 18 Gurgaon 122 015 Haryana, India Phone: +91 124 4033773 +91 98102 36020 [email_address] www.orkash.com

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