INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES ANDITS EFFECTS ON POWER GENERATION           Asok Dasgupta     President- Independent Power  Pro...
COST OF GENERATION OF ELECTRIC    POWER THROUGH THERMAL(COAL)             GENERATION  UNIT COST OFELECTRICITY=FIXED       ...
These Costs Depend On: Demand                                                Financialand Supply      Inflation           ...
Variable Cost Varies as per                 Cost of Consumables andCost of Coal                          Spares THESE COST...
Characteristics           of Coal                         Thermal                                          Properties     ...
•   Heat Rate for Thermal Generation•   Heat Input/Electricity Output•   KCAL/KWH•   Calorific Value•   Heat Content Per K...
World Production of Coal      2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                                         7         Colombo, ...
DEPENDENCE ON COAL FOR POWER                GENERATIONSouth Africa    93 %              Israel            65%Poland       ...
Coal: Proved Reserves 2010                                             Coal: Proved Reserves at end 2010 (Million Tonnes) ...
World Coal Production by Region 2008-2035 (Quadrillion Btu)                  2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:             ...
2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                                   11   Colombo, 1st March 2012
2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:   Colombo, 1st March 2012         13
2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:   Colombo, 1st March 2012         14
• It was forecasted that Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclear power will continue  to hold their importance as a primary energy s...
Reasons for Continuation of Coal Use Despite Existing and  Future Policies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas EmissionCoal is plen...
World Coal Consumption                          increases by 50 per cent                         (2008- 139 Quadrillion Bt...
World Coal Consumption by Region           (1980-2035)          2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                          ...
In 2008, Coal accounted for 28 per cent of world              energy consumption                   60% shipped to         ...
IEO projected that Electric Power Sector will witness adecline in Coal’s share of totalenergy consumption for Power       ...
International Coal Trade Growth : 21.2 quadrillion Btu in 2009 to  35.2 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The share of total world ...
COAL SHARE OF WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR           2008, 2020 AND 2035 (PERCENT)                2nd Asia Energy Se...
OECD COAL CONSUMPTION BY REGION      1980, 2008, 2020 & 2035         (Quadrillion Btu)        2nd Asia Energy Security Sum...
NON-OECD COAL CONSUMPTION BY REGION       1980, 2008, 2020 & 2035           (Quadrillion Btu)          2nd Asia Energy Sec...
International Coal Price      2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                                         25         Colombo,...
2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                                   26   Colombo, 1st March 2012
AFTER THAT THE RISEWILL DEPEND ONPOPULATION GROWTH             2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                           ...
International Coal Prices- Past & Present                     Coal Prices in USD Per Metric Ton (Approx)Countries         ...
AUSTRALIAN COAL INDEX      2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:         Colombo, 1st March 2012         29
AUSTRALIA Coal Price Change in 2011            2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:               Colombo, 1st March 2012     ...
INDONESIAN COAL INDEX      2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                                         31         Colombo, 1s...
2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:                                   32   Colombo, 1st March 2012
2nd Asia Energy Security Summit:   Colombo, 1st March 2012                                   33
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International coal prices and effect on power generation asok dasgupta

  1. 1. INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES ANDITS EFFECTS ON POWER GENERATION Asok Dasgupta President- Independent Power Producers Association of India (IPPAI) Sri Lanka, Colombo: 1st March, 2012
  2. 2. COST OF GENERATION OF ELECTRIC POWER THROUGH THERMAL(COAL) GENERATION UNIT COST OFELECTRICITY=FIXED FIXED COST IS DEPENDENT ON COST+VARIABLE COST COST OF INSURANCECAPITAL COST O&M COST DEPRECIATION MONEY COST 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 2 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  3. 3. These Costs Depend On: Demand Financialand Supply Inflation Market Position 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 3 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  4. 4. Variable Cost Varies as per Cost of Consumables andCost of Coal Spares THESE COSTS DEPEND ON DEMAND ANDSUPPLY SITUATION OF COAL WHICH IN TURN DEPEND ON DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF OTHER FUELS LIKE OIL,GAS AND NUCLEAR 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 4 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  5. 5. Characteristics of Coal Thermal Properties of Coal Composition Calorific Non Coking ValueCoking Coal Coal Carbon Ash Sulfur For Steel For Power Making Generation Moisture Volatile Matter 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 5 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  6. 6. • Heat Rate for Thermal Generation• Heat Input/Electricity Output• KCAL/KWH• Calorific Value• Heat Content Per Kg• KCAL/Kg• VARIABLE COST=HEAT RATE/CALORIFIC VALUE =KG/KWH – HIGHER THE CALORIFIC VALUE – LOWER THE INPUT OF COAL 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 6 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  7. 7. World Production of Coal 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 7 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  8. 8. DEPENDENCE ON COAL FOR POWER GENERATIONSouth Africa 93 % Israel 65%Poland 90% Czech Republic 56%China 79% Morocco 55%Australia 76% Greece 55%Kazakhstan 70% USA 45%India 69% Germany 44% 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 8 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  9. 9. Coal: Proved Reserves 2010 Coal: Proved Reserves at end 2010 (Million Tonnes) Anthracite Sub-bituminousCOUNTRIES and bituminus and lignite Total Share of Total R/P ratioAustralia 37100 39300 76400 8.9% 180China 62200 52300 114500 13.3% 35Czech Republic 192 908 1100 0.1% 22Greece - 3020 3020 0.4% 44India 56100 4500 60600 7.0% 106Indonesia 1520 4009 5529 0.6% 18Kazakhstan 21500 12100 33600 3.9% 303Poland 4338 1371 5709 0.7% 43South Africa 30156 - 30156 3.5% 119US 108501 128794 237295 27.6% 241Total World 404762 456176 860938 100.0% 118of which: OECD 155926 222603 378529 44.0% 184 Non-OECD 248836 233573 482409 56.0% 92 European Union # 5101 51047 56148 6.5% 105 Former Soviet Union 86725 141309 228034 26.5% 452 Source of reserves data: Survey of Energy Resources, World Energy Council 2010. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 9 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  10. 10. World Coal Production by Region 2008-2035 (Quadrillion Btu) 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 10 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  11. 11. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 11 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  12. 12. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: Colombo, 1st March 2012 13
  13. 13. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: Colombo, 1st March 2012 14
  14. 14. • It was forecasted that Coal, Natural Gas and Nuclear power will continue to hold their importance as a primary energy sources for electricity generation till 2015.• Total world power generation demand(P) – 24980 TWh (2015)• A growth from 18,920 TWh in 2006.• Coal-fired power stations increasing their share in total generation from 40% in 2006 to 44% in 2015.• Gas-fired generation dropping marginally from 20% to 19% in 2015, as a result of higher prices.• Oil use in power generation continuing to decline from 6% to 4%• Nuclear power suffering a fall in market share from 15% to 13% in 2015.• Conversely renewable generation (including hydro) is expected to rise from 18% in 2006 to 20% in 2015 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 15 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  15. 15. Reasons for Continuation of Coal Use Despite Existing and Future Policies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas EmissionCoal is plentiful, widely distributed and likely to be availableCoal has consistently outperformed oil and gas on an equivalent-energy basis, and despite a potential cost of carbon, coal is likely toremain the most affordable fuel for power generation in manydeveloping and industrialised countries for several decades.Coal is considered relatively affordable and has less price volatilitycompared to oil and gas.The use of indigenous reserves or the ability to access a well-provided and affordable international market can enhance acountry’s energy security and provide affordable reliable power todrive economies and development.The greatest increase in the demand for coal will be in thedeveloping countries, especially in developing Asia, where reservesare large and low-cost. OECD coal use is likely to grow modestly. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 16 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  16. 16. World Coal Consumption increases by 50 per cent (2008- 139 Quadrillion Btu 2035 – 209 Quadrillion Btu) As perInternational Energy Outlook (IEO), 2011 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 17 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  17. 17. World Coal Consumption by Region (1980-2035) 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 18 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  18. 18. In 2008, Coal accounted for 28 per cent of world energy consumption 60% shipped to Electricity Producers World production of Coal in 4% shipped to 36% shipped 2008 Residential & to Industrial Commercial consumers Sector 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 19 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  19. 19. IEO projected that Electric Power Sector will witness adecline in Coal’s share of totalenergy consumption for Power Generation From 43 per cent in 2008 To 37 per cent in 2010 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 20 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  20. 20. International Coal Trade Growth : 21.2 quadrillion Btu in 2009 to 35.2 quadrillion Btu in 2035. The share of total world coal consumption accounted for by internationally traded coal has increased from 15 percent in 2009 to a steady rate of 17 percent as per IEO projection. Stability on share of coal trade primarily reflects the ability of the world’s largest coal consumers, China and India, to meet substantial portions of their future coal demand with domestic production. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 21 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  21. 21. COAL SHARE OF WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR 2008, 2020 AND 2035 (PERCENT) 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 22 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  22. 22. OECD COAL CONSUMPTION BY REGION 1980, 2008, 2020 & 2035 (Quadrillion Btu) 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 23 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  23. 23. NON-OECD COAL CONSUMPTION BY REGION 1980, 2008, 2020 & 2035 (Quadrillion Btu) 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 24 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  24. 24. International Coal Price 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 25 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  25. 25. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 26 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  26. 26. AFTER THAT THE RISEWILL DEPEND ONPOPULATION GROWTH 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 27 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  27. 27. International Coal Prices- Past & Present Coal Prices in USD Per Metric Ton (Approx)Countries 2009 2010 2011 2012 Imp Exp Imp Exp Imp Exp Imp ExpAustralia -- $78.65 -- $78.8- -- $117- -- $115.14 $115 $141China $73 -- -- -- $130 -- $120 --India $38 -- $110 - -- $98- -- $79- -- $114 $128.5 $119Indonesia -- $66.46 -- $75 -- $ 119.03 -- $111.58South Africa -- -- -- $105.78 -- $106.3 -- $104.83USA $63.91 $101.44 $71.77 $120.41 $86- $139- -- -- $112 $155.8 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 28 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  28. 28. AUSTRALIAN COAL INDEX 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: Colombo, 1st March 2012 29
  29. 29. AUSTRALIA Coal Price Change in 2011 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: Colombo, 1st March 2012 30
  30. 30. INDONESIAN COAL INDEX 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 31 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  31. 31. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: 32 Colombo, 1st March 2012
  32. 32. 2nd Asia Energy Security Summit: Colombo, 1st March 2012 33

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