Day2: Mr. Rk sinha dgh presentation ippai goa

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Day2: Mr. Rk sinha dgh presentation ippai goa

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  • In 2012, Asia accounted for 71% of global LNG demand compared to 64% in 2011.
  • MUM-ZXE332(GAIL)-20120312-(MS)-(SM) The growth rates in the traditional markets of JKT are low and the additional volumes in Japan would primarily result from stoppage of nuclear plants, rather than growth in economy, if any. China arguably has largest Shale gas reserve which could affect its LNG demand and hence the market has uncertainty. While LNG demand in the Rest of Asia (e.g., Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam) is increasing, it is relatively fragmented. Comparatively, India which is having fewer domestic resources and is growing is set to become one of Asia’s most important LNG destinations over the next 10 to 15 years.
  • Natural Gas is 24% of the World Primary Energy Mix. Source: BP Statistics 2012, Energy Outlook 2030
  • GAP = Total Demand - Domestic Supply ( in 2016-17) = 175 to185 MMSCMD = 64 to 68 bcm = 48.6 to 51.3 MMTPA This is the Total LNG Regas capacity needed in 2016-17 to meet the gap (Assuming no supply from transnational supplies)
  • Capacity of re-gasification facilities being augmented from 15 MMTPA to 50 MMTPA by 2016-17. GAIL is co-promoter of Dahej and Kochi terminals, and jointly owns the Dabhol Terminal with liquefaction rights
  • India needs considerable investment to build a reliable and adequate energy supply chain to provide modern energy to the large proportion of the Indian population whose energy demand is currently unmet. Investment in supporting infrastructure for energy is also indispensable; this includes transportation and import facilities, especially for gas and coal, and manufacturing base for equipment and components. Investment in this area should be aligned with the expected expansion of energy capacity from the planning stage.
  • Day2: Mr. Rk sinha dgh presentation ippai goa

    1. 1. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa Gas Availability Scenario Rajeev Kumar Sinha Chief Technical Officer
    2. 2. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa Growth in Primary Energy Demand Global Energy Demand increases by 1/3rd , India is a major contributor for the growth
    3. 3. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa Gas Consumption Growth – 2035 Major Contributor is Developing Economies
    4. 4. Demand for LNG almost doubling over the next decade. Asian Gas Scenario - LNG Demand
    5. 5. India – Emerging LNG Market SOURCE: Gas Industries; GIIGNL; Datamonitor; MoPNG; McKinsey analysis High case: 75% capacity utilisation Low case: 50% capacity utilisation LNG imports mtpa 86837671 +1% p.a. 202520152010 Japan 34333233 0.1% p.a. 202520152010 South Korea 17151311 +3% p.a. 202520152010 Taiwan 9 13% p.a. 2025 53 35 20 37 15 25 2010 India 564533 9 +13% p.a. 202520152010 China India has Large Incremental Demand Asian Gas Scenario
    6. 6. Natural gas currently ~11% of India’s energy mix; Expected to reach 20% by 2030 25% 20% 51% 2%2% 2030 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Evolving Energy Mix – Increasing Share of Gas 12 bcm 58 bcm 26 bcm 200 bcm India Gas Market Scenario
    7. 7. Gap Between Demand and Domestic Supply 60 80 22-26 102-106 120-124 16-20 (BCM) 64- 68GAP (At current coal & fertilizer pricing. Will change as power and fertilizer policy reforms progress) SOURCE: McKinsey, GAIL India Gas Market Scenario
    8. 8. Existing and Projected Re-gas Capacity Source: MOPNG, GAIL Existing Re-gas capacity : 14.8 MMTPA Projected Re-gas capacity: 48.5 MMTPA India Gas Market Scenario
    9. 9. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa Type Resources In Place Reserves Conventional Oil & Gas 206 Billions bbl 72 Billion bbl (35%) Unconventional CBM 92 TCF 9 TCF (10%) Gas Hydrate Under evaluation (~1894 TCM) Shale Gas Under evaluation (1000’s TCF) Oil Shale Under evaluation (~ 3000 MMBBL) INDIA’S HYDROCARBON RESOURCES
    10. 10. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa DEMAND-SUPPLY Projection
    11. 11. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa Total Discoveries : 180 On Production : 22 Under Development : 14 Commerciality Established : 25 Under Evaluation : 48 Other Stages : 71 Reserves accretion from new Discoveries (as on 01.04.12) :737 MMT (Considering Commercial Discoveries) (O+OEG) Development of Discoveries 158
    12. 12. Open Acreage Licensing Policy
    13. 13. •Crude Oil Pricing : International price for Crude Oil Actual Crude Oil price realization by NOCs under Nomination regime is less due to subsidy sharing •Gas Pricing and Utilization : APM/Non-APM Price for Gas produced by ONGC & OIL Gas Pricing Formula is approved by GoI under PSC /CBM Contract regime Allocation of Gas as per Gas Utilization Policy of Government ALLOCATION AND PRICING
    14. 14. • Gas should be supplied in the following orders of priority : Gas –Based Urea Fertilizer Plants LPG Plants Power Plants supplying power to the Grid/State utilities at regulated rates under PPA City Gas Distribution (CGD) Systems for Domestic and Transport Sectors Steels/Refineries/Petrochemicals for feedstock purposes CGD for Industrial and Commercial use Any other customers for captive and merchant power, feedstock or fuel purposes Guidelines introduced for selection of customers for domestic gas available from small/ isolated fields under NOCs GAS UTILIZATION POLICY
    15. 15. Dr. Rangarajan Committee’s recommendations on pricing of domestically produced gas: • Competitive domestic gas price currently does not exist in India • The recommended domestic gas price in India will be arrived at by averaging the following: - Henry Hub price in the US ( for North America) - National Balancing Point price in UK ( for Europe) - Netback price at the sources of supply for Japan - Netback price of Indian LNG import at the wellhead of the exporting countries The proposed formula to be applied prospectively across all sectors. Proposed Contractual Reforms
    16. 16. IEA estimates that India would need a total investment of USD 2306 billion on overall energy supply infrastructure from 2011- 2035 ( avg USD 92 billion p.a.) Investment Opportunities Required energy investment, 2011-35 (USD billion) Value through Partnerships
    17. 17. The 14th Regulators & Policymakers Retreat 1st – 4th August, 2013, Goa Marriott Resort & Spa, Goa

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