Petrov, Williams, Shahumyan & Convery - input2012
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Laura Petrov, Brendan Williams, Harutyun Shahumyan and Sheila Convery on "National Borders and Transport Corridors in Europe: Dublin-Belfast corridor case study"

Laura Petrov, Brendan Williams, Harutyun Shahumyan and Sheila Convery on "National Borders and Transport Corridors in Europe: Dublin-Belfast corridor case study"

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Petrov, Williams, Shahumyan & Convery - input2012 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete: DATE National Borders and Transport Corridors in Europe: Dublin-Belfast corridor case studyLaura Petrov, Brendan Williams, Harutyun Shahumyanand Sheila Convery
  • 2. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTETRANSPORT CORRIDORS and their AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and TITLE Write or delete: DATEROLE:Development of transport corridors a result ofurbanization.ROLE:› Link the cities; Link urban and rural areas› Extensions of cities functionality› Improving the structure and functionality of the main cities;› Increase the economic importance of towns that exist along the axis;› Powerful stimulant for new development along the line.
  • 3. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEBENEFITS OF TRANSPORTCORRIDORS› IMPROVE CONNECTION› DEVELOP JOINT USE OF INFRASTRUCTURE› FACILITIES & COMFORT› ECONOMIC› COOPERATION› IMPROVE MOBILITY› IMPROVE COMMUNICATION NETWORKS› POLITICAL
  • 4. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEWhat about the ENVIRONMENT?› NEW residential areas, commercial and industrial activities URBAN SPRAWL ... Loss of agricultural land, structural changes (e.g. disappearance of open space), permanent grassland destruction;› Transport corridors creates the “barrier creation” effect degradeting the ecological functions of natural habitats LAND FRAGMENTATION, LOSS of BIODIVERSITY!› Transport corridors are leading to an increase of traffic and emission of CO2 NATURAL HAZARDS EVENTS and CLIMATE CHANGE!
  • 5. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEJust few questions› What is the future accessibility of Europe?› What is the impact on the economy?› What is its impact on the European land use changes and consequently the implicit effects on pollution and climate change?
  • 6. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEFew examples of transport corridors:52 cross-border cooperationprogrammes - Rotterdam – Lille is an area of long standing cooperation between FR, BE and NL. - Dublin – Belfast, cooperation became possible in the past decade with the resolution of political problems. - Dresden – Prague is an area that was part of Eastern block and underwent drastic changes after Berlin wall collaps. - Fehmern Bridge links Southern islands of DK to Northern of DE, enhancing the edge/localSource:http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/ developmentatlas2007/eu/crossborder/index_en.htm
  • 7. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEGreater Dublin Region Belfast andDublin – Belfast Transport 160 km Corridor Dublin
  • 8. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEStakeholders meeting Analysing the area Identify trends, constraints and issues Identify driving forces Building scenarios WHAT IF? - Balancing of advantages and burdens within the region which offers synergy effects - Role of Strategic Planning Guidelines Modelling, Translating the storylines into Quantitative scenarios
  • 9. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCHINSTITUTEAARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLE What IF? SCENARIOs : BU, CD, MD, R Key drivers Narrative of scenario Population Birth rate, Immigration/Out-migration, Ageing population, etc. Socio-Economic Trends GDP, Sectorial developments, Economic competitiveness, Growth and investment capacity, Regulatory and fiscal measures on location decision making, Drivers influencing markets/sub-markets, Research and innovation, Technology, etc. Urbanization/Spatial Polycentric, Growth and sprawl, Urban-region, Small- Planning scale development, etc. Transport and Transportation, Cross border networks, Accessibility, Infrastructure Provision Trans-European Transport Networks, etc. Policy Framework, Policies, Environmental sustainability, Climate ’Shock’ Clues and change, Natural hazards, Economic competitiveness, Overall Trends growth and investment capacity, etc.
  • 10. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCHINSTITUTEAARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATEThe work cycle between scientists and TITLE stakeholders/policy-makers
  • 11. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEWhy is MOLAND Useful?› A range of what-if scenarios can be explored› A variety of spatial planning policies can be assessed› The environmental impacts of different land-use policies can be quantified› Provide robust framework for comparing, discussing and visualizing a variety of spatial planning policies
  • 12. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEHow the model works? Accessibility The neighbourhood effectZoning status Land use Suitability • Population • Income • Production • Employment Future territorial scenario Socio-economic data
  • 13. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLENeighbourhood effect • A circular neighbourhood consisting of 196 cells is applied (radius eight pixels) • The effect in the central cell is calculated in a distance-decay way 1 cell = 200 x 200 m
  • 14. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLERegional level
  • 15. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLE Developing and using the model PAST NOW FUTURE Known history Unknown futureLand Use Land Use Land UseFacts on: Observed / Facts on: Scenarios / Scenarios on:Suitability Historical Suitability Forecasts on SuitabilityZoning Changes Zoning Spatial Claims ZoningAccessibility Accessibility AccessibilityPopulation Population PopulationJobs Jobs Jobs Calibration Exploration Validation
  • 16. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEGDR: 2006-2026
  • 17. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLE Indicators: urban development and loss of natural areas Urban development Urban areas vs. Natural areas Urban Scenarios (%) BU CD MD RTotal urban areas in GDR 86.2 89.2 89.3 51.8Loss of total natural areas in GDR -5.6 -5.8 -5.8 -3.4Total urban areas in Dublin Co. 41.8 53.4 45.6 20.8Loss of natural areas in Dublin Co. -21.1 -26.9 -23 -10.5
  • 18. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE Indicator: Urban growth and sprawl TITLE Residential discontinous sparse class Growth by Scenarios (%) Counties BU CD MD RLouth 216.5 223.4 218.0 173.5Meath 267.9 253.0 269.4 207.2Dublin 141.8 153.4 145.6 120.8Kildare 243.7 234.8 246.8 191.1Wicklow 256.5 241.2 259.0 203.1
  • 19. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEUrban Development Tab. 3 – Change in Services land use from 2006 to 2026 (%) Counties BU CD MD R Louth 129 194 129 0 Meath 144 278 167 44 Dublin 17 62 28 17 Tab. 1 – Change in Industrial land use Kildare 115 231 152 40 from 2006 to 2026 (%) Wicklow 100 300 190 10 Counties BU CD MD R Louth 122 154 122 52Tab. 2 – Change in Commercial land use Meath 98 201 97 49from 2006 to 2026 (%) Dublin 4 52 23 12Counties BU CD MD R Kildare 100 216 109 52Louth 118 262 148 0 Wicklow 120 182 119 57Meath 121 246 149 10Dublin 24 66 34 -9Kildare 119 237 143 22Wicklow 95 215 121 -3
  • 20. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLEConclusions:• Transport corridor is an important key driver for NEW urban development; Dublin-Belfast corridor can be projected as a key to the island’s future economic recovery.• How to manage the corridor and deliver a successful, sensitive and suitable outcome? Sensitive approach to the spatial planning; Integrated approach to land use planning and infrastructure; Policies; Integrated strategic management – economic growth points, residential settlements, rural areas.• Using scenarios and indicators is a way to evaluate future land use development and offer useful support to stakeholders/policy-makers; contribution to European territorial policy.
  • 21. NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCHINSTITUTEAARHUS UNIVERSITY Write or delete at the masterslide: YOUR NAME and Write or delete: DATE TITLE Thank you!!