Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Experimental Evidence on the
Effect of ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Introduction & Motivation
The goal of ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Introduction & Motivation
Several educ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Research Goal & Questions
Estimate the...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Empirical Approach
Using Project STAR ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Description of Project STAR
Tennessee ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Related Literature
Test score effects (...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Preview of Results
Assignment to a sma...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Estimating Equation
Yisg = β0 + β1SMAL...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Data on Educational Attainment
Nationa...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Fraction Ever Attended College Over Ti...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Controlling for FEs and Demographics
C...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Controlling for FEs and Demographics
C...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Timing of College Attendance
Ever Atte...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
College Completion
College completion ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Cumulative Number of Semesters Attende...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on Degree Receipt
...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Timing of Degree Receipt
Ever Receive ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Timing of Degree Receipt - By Degree T...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Timing of Highest Degree Earned - By D...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on Field of Degree...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Class Size and Inequality in Education...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on the Race Gap in...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on the Income Gap ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Heterogeneity by School Poverty
Total ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Heterogeneity in Treatment Effect or Do...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on Enrollment Usin...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Do Short-Term Effects Predict Long-Term...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Estimating Equations
Collisg = α0 + α2...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on College Attenda...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effect of Class Size on College Attenda...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Short-Term Gains in Test Scores Predic...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Do Early Interventions Pay off More Tha...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Figure from Carneiro and Heckman (2003...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Preschool Interventions: Effect on Coll...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
K-12 Interventions: Effect on College E...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Postsecondary Interventions: Effect on ...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Effects on College Entry Rate, by Age a...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Cost per Student Induced to Enter Coll...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Summary of Results
We find impacts of c...
Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra
Conclusions
Our results suggest that f...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Educación primaria: el impacto a largo plazo del tamaño del aula

1,539

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,539
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
12
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Educación primaria: el impacto a largo plazo del tamaño del aula"

  1. 1. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Childhood Investments on Postsecondary Attainment and Degree Completion Susan Dynarski and Joshua Hyman University of Michigan Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach Northwestern University March 7, 2014
  2. 2. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Introduction & Motivation The goal of educational interventions is to improve long-run outcomes, e.g. Educational attainment Earnings Health Most evaluations of educational interventions look only at test scores Data limitations Time horizon But do short-run gains in test scores translate into long-term impacts?
  3. 3. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Introduction & Motivation Several educational interventions have produced large test score effects that fade Abecedarian, Perry Preschool Head Start These same programs appear to have large, long-term impacts (Anderson, 2008; Deming, 2009) reduced crime increased labor force attachment increased health Unclear which aspect of these multi-pronged interventions produced the long-term effects
  4. 4. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Research Goal & Questions Estimate the effect of a clearly defined intervention on short-term and long-term outcomes What is the effect of reduced class size during early elementary school on test scores in childhood and postsecondary attainment in adulthood? Can we predict the long-term effects of class size from its short-term effects?
  5. 5. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Empirical Approach Using Project STAR we evaluate the impact of randomly assigned class size on college entry college persistence degree completion field of degree Advantages of Project STAR - Big, old and well designed - Manipulates single parameter in education production function - replicable
  6. 6. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Description of Project STAR Tennessee STAR randomly assigned kindergarten students and their teachers to Small class (13-17 students) or Regular class (22-25 students) Randomization conducted within 79 schools Students remained in their assigned class type through 3rd grade, then returned to regular classes in 4th grade. 11,571 students were involved in the experiment.
  7. 7. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Related Literature Test score effects (Krueger, 1999; Krueger & Whitmore, 2001) Contemporaneous scores rise 0.2 sd Score effects vanish with end of experiment Long-term effects (Chetty et al., 2011) Of kindergarten classroom Higher earnings, savings, home ownership, college quality Driven by variation in teacher quality, peer quality Of class size Small increase in college attendance at age 20, gone by age 27 No impact on college quality or earnings.
  8. 8. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Preview of Results Assignment to a small class increases College enrollment by 2.7 percentage points (pp) 6 pp for Blacks, 4 pp for poor students 7 pp for students at schools with highest poverty share Degree receipt by 1.6 pp Shifts students toward high earning fields (STEM, business and economics). Early test score gains completely predict long-term benefits. After comparing costs and impacts we conclude that early interventions are no more cost effective than later ones.
  9. 9. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Estimating Equation Yisg = β0 + β1SMALLis + β2Xis + αsg + isg (1) Yisg is outcome of student i, who entered the STAR experiment in school s and in grade g. SMALLis is a dummy for whether the student initially attended a small class. Xis is a vector of demographics. αsg is set of school-by-entry-wave fixed effects.
  10. 10. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Data on Educational Attainment National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Administrative data on ≈92% of enrollment - Name and state of college - School type (2/4 year, public/private) - Start and end date of semesters enrolled - Enrollment status - Whether a student graduates - Field of degree and major Economists have begun to use data for research purposes. States and districts use data to track educational attainment of HS graduates
  11. 11. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Fraction Ever Attended College Over Time Raw Means 0.1.2.3.4 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Difference Between Small and Regular −.04−.020.02.04.06.08 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Difference 95% Confidence Interval
  12. 12. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Controlling for FEs and Demographics Controlling for SxW Effects and Demographics 0.1.2.3.4 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Difference Between Small and Regular −.04−.020.02.04.06.08 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Difference 95% Confidence Interval
  13. 13. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Controlling for FEs and Demographics Controlling for SxW Effects and Demographics 0.1.2.3.4 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Difference Between Small and Regular −.04−.020.02.04.06.08 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Difference 95% Confidence Interval Ever Attend College 0.028 0.027 (0.012) (0.011) Demographics No Yes Control Mean 0.385 Sample Size 11,269
  14. 14. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Timing of College Attendance Ever Attend College 0.1.2.3.4 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Currently Attending College 0.05.1.15.2.25 FractionCurrentlyAttendingCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class
  15. 15. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra College Completion College completion rates declining in recent decades (Bound et al., 2010; Bailey and Dynarski, 2011) Important question: Do gains we see in college entry translate into increased persistence and completion?
  16. 16. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Cumulative Number of Semesters Attended Over Time # of Semesters 0.22 (0.13) Control Mean 3.07 Sample Size 11,269 0123 NumberofSemesters 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class
  17. 17. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on Degree Receipt Any degree 0.016 (0.009) 0.151 Highest Degree Associates 0.007 (0.004) 0.027 Bachelors or higher 0.009 (0.008) 0.124 Sample Size 11,269 Dependent variable
  18. 18. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Timing of Degree Receipt Ever Receive a Degree 0.05.1.15.2 FractionEverReceivedaaDegree 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Receive a Degree in Current Year 0.01.02.03.04.05.06 FractionReceivingaDegreeInCurrentYear 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class
  19. 19. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Timing of Degree Receipt - By Degree Type Associates 0.01.02.03.04.05.06 FractionReceivingaDegreeInCurrentYear 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Bachelors or Higher 0.01.02.03.04.05.06 FractionReceivingaDegreeInCurrentYear 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class
  20. 20. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Timing of Highest Degree Earned - By Degree Type Associates 0.05.1.15.2 FractionEverReceivedaaDegree 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class Bachelors or Higher 0.05.1.15.2 FractionEverReceivedaaDegree 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Small Class Regular Class
  21. 21. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on Field of Degree Any degree 0.016 (0.009) 0.151 Degree Type 0.013 (0.006) 0.044 All other fields 0.003 (0.006) 0.085 Sample Size 11,269 Dependent variable STEM, business or economics field
  22. 22. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Class Size and Inequality in Educational Attainment Inequality in postsecondary education has been increasing in recent decades (Bound et al., 2010; Bailey and Dynarski, 2010). Does class size reduction attenuate or exacerbate race and income gaps in postsecondary attainment?
  23. 23. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on the Race Gap in College Attendance Regular Class 0.1.2.3.4.5.6 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Whites Blacks Small Class 0.1.2.3.4.5.6 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Whites Blacks
  24. 24. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on the Income Gap in College Attendance Regular Class 0.1.2.3.4.5.6 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Not Free Lunch Free Lunch Small Class 0.1.2.3.4.5.6 FractionEverAttendedCollege 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Not Free Lunch Free Lunch
  25. 25. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Heterogeneity by School Poverty Total High Middle Low Middle & Low Dependent variable (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Ever Attend College 0.027 0.073 -0.010 0.022 0.006 (0.011) (0.021) (0.017) (0.018) (0.012) 0.385 0.262 0.417 0.476 0.446 Sample Size 11,269 3,681 3,784 3,804 7,588 Tercile of School Poverty Share
  26. 26. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Heterogeneity in Treatment Effect or Dosage? YEARSis = δ0 + δ1Zis + δsg + ψisg (2) COLLisg = α0 + α1YEARSis + αsg + isg (3) COLLisg is a dummy for whether student i, who entered the STAR experiment in school s and in grade g enrolls in college. YEARS is the number of years spent in a small class. Z is the potential number of years the student can be in a small class multiplied by an indicator for whether the student was assigned to a small class. αsg and δsg are school-by-entry-wave fixed effects.
  27. 27. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on Enrollment Using Potential Years Instrument First Stage Reduced Form 2SLS Control Mean (1) (2) (3) (4) Everyone 0.643 0.006 0.009 0.385 (n=11,269) (0.016) (0.003) (0.005) Black 0.589 0.014 0.024 0.308 (n=4,109) (0.019) (0.006) (0.010) White 0.669 0.003 0.004 0.432 (n=7,160) (0.019) (0.004) (0.006)
  28. 28. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Do Short-Term Effects Predict Long-Term Effects? Could effects we find have been predicted based on short-term impacts? We guess effect on college enrollment based on relationship between test-scores and educational attainment. Use NLSY79 Mother-Child Supplement: One SD increase in scores associated with 16pp increase in college enrollment. Same as in STAR data. STAR increased K-3 test scores by 0.17 SD’s. 0.17*16=2.72 percentage points - identical to effect we find.
  29. 29. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Estimating Equations Collisg = α0 + α2TESTis + α4Xis + αsg + isg (4) Collisg = β0 + β1SMALLis + β2TESTis + β3SMALL ∗ TESTis + β4Xis + βsg + isg (5) TESTis is the average of student i s K-3 math and english test scores, normalized to mean zero and SD of one.
  30. 30. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on College Attendance Conditional on K-3 Test Scores (1) (2) Test score 0.169 0.169 (0.006) (0.006) Small class * test score -0.008 (0.010) Small class 0.002 (0.009) Control Mean 0.385 0.385 Sample Size 11,269 11,269
  31. 31. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effect of Class Size on College Attendance Conditional on Grade 6-8 Test Scores (1) (2) Test score 0.229 0.230 (0.005) (0.005) Small class * test score -0.014 (0.008) Small class 0.020 (0.010) Control Mean 0.385 0.385 Sample Size 11,269 11,269
  32. 32. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Short-Term Gains in Test Scores Predict Long-Run Impacts Test scores during K-3 predict college attendance to the same degree for students in small and regular-size classes. This suggests that short-term gains in test scores actually predict long-run impacts quite well. The fact that test-score impacts fade-out but human capital persists implies effects working through another channel.
  33. 33. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Do Early Interventions Pay off More Than Late Ones? Theory popularized by James Heckman and coauthors: Students more plastic when young so as they age, interventions are less effective. In this section we compare costs and effect on college attendance of interventions from throughout life-cycle.
  34. 34. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Figure from Carneiro and Heckman (2003) Preschool School Post-school Preschool programs Schooling Job training Age Rate of return to investment in human capital Figure 2.6 (a) Rates of return to human capital investment initially setting investment to be equal across all ages 0 Opportunity cost of funds r Rates of return to human capital investment initially setting investment to be equal across all ages
  35. 35. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Preschool Interventions: Effect on College Entry Rate Abecedarian (Anderson, 2008) Effect: +22 pp Cost per child: $90,000 Cost per child induced into college:$410,000 Head Start +6 pp (Deming, 2009) Effect: +6 pp Cost per child: $8,000 Cost per child induced into college:$133,000
  36. 36. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra K-12 Interventions: Effect on College Entry Rate Upward Bound (Seftor et al., 2009) Effect: +6 pp (among students with low educational aspirations) Cost per child: $5,620 Cost per child induced into college:$94,000 STAR (Dynarski et al., 2011) Effect: +3/+6 pp (total/black) Cost per child: $12,000 Cost per child induced into college:$400,000 to $200,000
  37. 37. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Postsecondary Interventions: Effect on College Entry Rate Simple Aid Programs (Dynarski, 2003 & 2008; Deming and Dynarski, 2011) Cost per high school student induced into college:$21,000 FAFSA Simplification (Bettinger et al., forthcoming) Effect: +7 pp Cost per applicant:$88 Cost per applicant induced into college:$1,300
  38. 38. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Effects on College Entry Rate, by Age at Intervention Abcedarian Head Start STAR Upward Bound Student aid FAFSA experiment 0510152025 PercentagePoints Preschool Primary/Secondary School College Age Effect on college enrollment Quadratic fitted line
  39. 39. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Cost per Student Induced to Enter College, by Age at Intervention Abcedarian Head Start STAR Upward Bound Student aid FAFSA experiment 0100200300400 ThousandsofDollars Preschool Primary/Secondary School College Age Cost/student induced to attend college Quadratic fitted line
  40. 40. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Summary of Results We find impacts of class size on college attendance, persistence, and completion, particularly for disadvantaged students. Degree receipt effects driven by increases in STEM and business/econ fields. Attending a small class cuts black-white college attendance gap in half and reduces SES gap by 12%. Early test-score gains completely predict long-term benefits.
  41. 41. Introduction & Motivation Data & Methodology Results Heterogeneity Discussion Extra Conclusions Our results suggest that fade-out of test score gains does not imply a policy or program is ineffective. Contemporaneous test score gains seem to be a good predictor of long-run improvements. Given declining college graduation rates and lack of effective interventions addressing this problem, it is particularly encouraging that we see impacts of class size on postsecondary completion.
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×