Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa, July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré
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Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa, July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré

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"Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa," July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré

"Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa," July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré

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Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa, July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa, July 2009, by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré Presentation Transcript

  • Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa C. Sere and M. Herrero The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium
  • Livestock and livelihoods (1) – Livestock systems occupy 45% or the global land area (Reid et al 2008) – Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008) – Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999) – Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities (Freeman et al 2007) – Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping area receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a)
  • Livestock and livelihoods (3) – Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) – Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber – Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World – . Europe - 2000 SSA - 2000 3% 3% 10% Meat Meat 24% 4% 11% Dairy Dairy 37% Fruit & Vegetables Fruit & Vegetables 5% Cereals Cereals 3% Roots & Tubers Roots & Tubers 47% 1% Dryland crops 16% Dryland crops 31% Others Others 5% Herrero et al 2008a
  • At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock ILRI 2009
  • Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2030) Population in 2000 Population in 2030 (1000 of people) (1000 of people) Farming system (Agro-)Pastoral 80,160 140,820 Mixed Extensive 258,680 484,750 Mixed Potentially Intensify 168,150 327,070 Other 109,180 190,310 Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa will nearly double to 2030!! Herrero et al 2009
  • Consumption of livestock products in the developing world is projected to increase even faster 70 60 cereals, food 50 cereals, all uses change 2001 - 2030 (%) 40 veg. oils, oilseeds and by-products meat 30 milk 20 10 0 developing countries industrial countries -10 IAASTD 2007
  • Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007
  • Cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000) Cereals Production 2000 3% 5% 24% AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other 68% Herrero et al 2009
  • Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints Annual changes in Cereal Production Rates lower than those of population 2000 - 2030 Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar growth to developed countries Catching up 6 5 4 3 % 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Herrero et al 2009
  • …but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates…. Herrero et al 2009 Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030 8 7 6 5 Increased consumption 4 Increased incomes % 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030 9 8 7 6 …but increased pressure on 5 % resources (land, feeds, etc) 4 3 2 1 Some industrialisation…. 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
  • Herrero et al 2009
  • 80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007 Dependence on green and blue water 2000
  • ILRI Small Scale Dairy Existing value chain Proposed value chain Plant breeders Water conservation/ Soil scientists supply Seeds Crop residues Fertilizers Micro-finance Monitoring / Fodder production Feed/Minerals Evaluation Pasture development Fodder producers / Traders Milk Milk processing/ Small holder/ Hub/ Consumer collection marketing Dairy cattle Local org. Breed selection Breeding services Superior germplasm Training / Performance evaluation Vaccinations Capacity building Deworming Paravet Disease Investigation Veterinarian Lab services Veterinary services Input supply National/ Regional Players Private Entrepreneurs Wider Replication Hedge 2009
  • Mean CC impacts on yields Calorie-based national mean change in crop productivity [%] 2050s compared to 1990s With CO2 fertilization Without CO2 fertilization % % n=15; n=15; 3SRES, 3SRES, 5GCM 5GCM PIK, Müller et al., preliminary results
  • Conclusions • Mixed crop-livestock systems will continue to be the backbone of agriculture and livestock production in Sub Saharan Africa • Domestic and regional markets – essential • Improved market access, competitiveness, reduction of transactions costs necessary • Significant room for intensification, particularly in areas of medium agricultural potential • More livestock due to climate change?