Presented by Jimmy Smith (with Delia Grace, Fred Unger, Hung Nguyen, Purvi Mehta, Bernard Bett and Shirley Tarawali) at the 5th biennial conference of the International Association for Ecology and Health, Montreal, Canada, 11−15 August 2014
Healthy people, animals and ecosystems for global food and nutritional security
1. Healthy people, animals and ecosystems
for global food and nutritional security
5th biennial conference of the International Association for Ecology and Health
Montreal, Canada, 11−15 August 2014
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
With Delia Grace Fred Unger Hung Nguyen Purvi Mehta Bernard Bett Shirley Tarawali
2. The argument
• Finding ways to better feed and nourish a
population of some 10 billion people by 2050
daunts today’s agricultural scientists,
livestock scientists in particular
• We need to produce much more animal-
source foods and more sustainably − without
hurting our environment or threatening public
health
3. The argument (2)
• The health of people, animals and ecologies
depend utterly on each other − and in ways
we only partially yet understand
• Feeding our growing world sustainably requires
breaking down walls between the livestock, health,
environmental sectors
• Failure to use holistic approaches will fail
to find win-win-win solutions for all three sectors
• Disaster in any one sector impinges on the others
4. Some definitions
• Food security
‘All people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food that meets
their dietary needs and food prefer-
ences for an active and healthy life’
− WHO 1996
• As commonly used,
> ‘food security’ = food quantity
> ‘nutritional security’ = food quality
6. Is global food security and
sustainable food production possible?
How will the world feed itself sustainably
by the time the population stabilizes about 2050?
• 60% more food than is produced now will be needed
• 75% of this must come from producing more food from the
same amount of land
• The higher production must be achieved while reducing
poverty and addressing environmental, social and health
concerns
• This greater production will have to be achieved with
temperatures that may be 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s
7. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006
8. FAO 2012
Based on anticipated changes in absolute tonnes of product from 2000 to 2030
Percentage growth in demand
for livestock products: 2000−2030
9. Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bn
tonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bn
tonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m
tonnes meat each year
10. Much of the world’s livestock food comes from
small mixed farms in developing countries
Herrero et al. 2009
Developing-country
mixed crop-livestock
systems, most of them
smallholders, supply
much of the world’s
livestock products
11. What’s special about animal/smallholder food?
• 90% of animal products are
produced and consumed
in the same country or region
• Most are produced by smallholders
• Over 70% of livestock products
are sold ‘informally’
• 500 million smallholders produce
80% of the developing world’s food
• 43% of the agricultural workforce
is female
12. Various sources:
BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
meat
Sheep/goat
meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa
(≤ 6 milking
animals)
60-90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India
(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35
13. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd
• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers
Vietnam pig industry
• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 pigs
• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
14. Strong growth in developing-country
crop-livestock systems presents opportunities
• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers,
it’s expected that:
﹣One-third will find alternate livelihoods
﹣One-third may or may not remain part of
the transformation of the livestock sector
﹣One-third will succeed at market-oriented
livestock livelihoods
• The coming transitions and consolidations of today’s smallholder
crop-livestock systems present opportunities to increase food
production while benefiting the environment, socio-economic
equity and human health
15. Healthy people, animals and ecosystems
• Our health depends
on our food and
nutritional security
• Our food and nutritional
security (as well as our
health) in turn depends
on the health of our
animals and our
agro-ecosystems
16. The diverse ‘health’ aspects of food security
Food and
nutritional
security
Healthy
people
Healthy
animals
Healthy
eco-
systems
Balanced human diets
Food waste reduced
Judicious use of
natural resources
Minimal pollution
Food safe for
human consumption
Zoonotic diseases
stopped or controlled
More productive
animals
More animal-
source foods
Environmental
services protected
Food waste reduced
Reduced use of natural resources
Reduced GHG emissions per unit of commodity
18. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
hungry people
vulnerable to food
insecurity
inadequate diets
overconsumers
balanced diets
Malnutrition is costly.
FAO estimates the costs of malnutrition
to be as high as US$3.5 trillion a year
19. The double burden: hunger & obesity
• 2.1 billion people
suffer from over-
weight or obesity
• Two-thirds of obese
people live in poor
countries
• No country has had
significant decreases
in obesity in the last
33 years
Underweight females Overweight females
Ethiopia
Nigeria
South Africa
21. As countries get rich, more food is wasted
• Worldwide 1/3 of food, worth $1 trillion, is lost or wasted
• Half the food wasted in rich countries is fit for human consumption
FAO 2011
23. Steinfeld et al. 2006
Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal
health, persist between rich and poor countries
Some developing-country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
24. A few major diseases cause most losses
in Africa and South Asia
Estimates from
BMGF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Billion$lostyearly
South Asia
Africa
NB: No data exists for PPR in South Asia but it is known to be widespread in the region
25. Food safety in developing countries
• Most milk, meat and
eggs are sold in
informal markets
• Women predominate
food processing & sale
• Most food in wet
markets had high levels
of standards
• Food-borne disease is a
major cause of diarrhea
0 50 100
Lower resp. infect.
HIV/AIDS
Diarrheal diseases
Stroke
Ischaemic heart disease
Malaria
Preterm birth comp.
Tuberculosis
Birth asphysia
Protein/energy malnut.
Deaths per 100,000 population
Top 10 causes of death in low
income countries (2012)
26. Most (75%) emerging diseases come from animals
ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
Emerging zoonotic disease events, 1940−2012
27. Almost all losses are in developing countries
A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each year
kill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses
28. Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on
one billion poor livestock keepers
Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
29. Period
Cost
(conservative estimates)
6 outbreaks excluding SARS
− Nipah virus (Malaysia)
− West Nile fever (USA)
− HPAI (Asia, Europe)
− BSE (US)
− Rift Valley fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia)
− BSE (UK) costs 1997−09 only
1998−2009 38.7
SARS 2002−2004 41.5
Total over 12 years 1998−2009 80.2
Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks
(US$ billion)
World Bank 2012
Giving an annual average of US$6.7 billion
32. Livestock and ecosystem health
• Livestock emit greenhouse gases but
improving production efficiencies is
key to reducing their C footprints
• Livestock feed can compete with staple crops and
biofuels for water and other natural resources but
– Pastures can help store carbon
– Animals in smallholder systems consume crop wastes
and natural pasture, not grain
• Manure can pollute land and water but
is an important source of organic matter for soil fertility
33. As much as half of the agricultural
GHG emissions come from animals
Herrero et al. 2013
GHG per kg of animal protein produced varies hugely:
Big opportunities to mitigate
34. A global water crisis
• 2 billion people
lack access
• Demand is growing;
freshwater is getting
scarcer
• 70% of total
freshwater use is for
agriculture,
of which 31%
is for livestock
36. Option 1:
Balance consumption of animal-source foods
• Ensure undernourished
(poor) people have
regular access to modest
quantities of animal-
source foods for their
nutrition and health
• Help over-nourished
(rich) people whose
health is at risk to reduce
their consumption of
animal-source foods
37. Option 2:
Reduce food waste
• Reduce waste of
perishable milk,
meat and egg
products (mostly
from farm to market)
• Find safe ways
to utilize foods
contaminated
by aflatoxins
as animal feed
38. Option 3:
Make animal-source foods safer and fairer
• Simple and cheap interventions
can lead to substantial
improvements in food safety
• Branding & certification of milk
vendors in Kenya led to improved
milk safety & saves the national
economy $33 million per year
• Training butchers in Nigeria
led to better standards:
Cost = $9 per butcher
Savings = $780 per butcher per
year from reduced cost of illness
among consumers
39. Option 4:
Employ One-Health approaches to control zoonoses
• Control zoonoses in animal hosts
- Median benefit to cost ratio = 4:1
• Make timely responses to zoonotic outbreaks
− Can reduce costs by 90%
Adapted from IOM 2009
40. Option 5:
Improve the health of farm animals
• Better control animal
diseases, which cause
1/3 of the productivity
gaps in developing
countries losses worth
37% of the livestock
sector value
• Ensure that unhealthy
livestock do not make
for unsafe livestock
foods in the markets
1 of 4 calves & lambs and 7 of 10 chickens,
die from disease each year in Africa
41. Vaccines save lives of animals that both
increase food security and reduce poverty
Option 6:
Develop and improve livestock vaccines
An body technologies
Vaccine technologies
Cellular technologies
Diagnos c technologies
Genomic technologies
Contagiousbovine
pleuropneumonia
EastCoastfever
Africanswinefever
Consor a for research & product development and capacity development
Private sector
GALVmed
CRPs
NARS
Inter-gov
agencies
Improved vaccines and
diagnos c tools
Pestedespesruminants
RiValleyfever
Infec ous disease
research: basic & applied
ILVAC – a vaccine pla orm
42. Option 7:
Provide innovations & incentives for managing disease
• Develop and test technologies
• Build on local capacity
Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis
43. Option 8:
Improve the efficiency/productivity of smallholders
Improve livestock
efficiency to produce
more product
per unit of input
− land, water,
labour, capital −
and causing less
environmental harm
More livestock foods mean
more food and better nutrition
for the poor
44. Developing countries can mitigate GHG emissions
without moving to industrial grain-fed systems:
e.g. through improved efficiencies
such as better feeds and feeding systems
Option 9:
Provide improved feeds for fewer GHG
45. Option 10:
Provide improved feed that uses less water
30% reduction in
water needed for
1 litre of milk
by improving
sorghum stalk
digestibility by 5%
46. ILRI use of Ecohealth Approaches: Examples
Predicting the risk of H7N9
infections
in live poultry markets in
47. Conclusions
• More food, especially animal-source food,
must be produced in new ways that don’t
harm our health or environment
• Human, animal and ecological health are
inextricably linked and together form a
foundation for food and nutritional security
• Research is needed not only to produce new
knowledge and technologies but also to join up
diverse disciplinary and sector expertise in new
kinds of productive partnerships