Healthy people, animals and ecosystems
for global food and nutritional security
5th biennial conference of the Internation...
The argument
• Finding ways to better feed and nourish a
population of some 10 billion people by 2050
daunts today’s agric...
The argument (2)
• The health of people, animals and ecologies
depend utterly on each other − and in ways
we only partiall...
Some definitions
• Food security
‘All people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to sufficient,
safe and nutr...
Food
security
and
livestock
production
Is global food security and
sustainable food production possible?
How will the world feed itself sustainably
by the time t...
Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1990 2002...
FAO 2012
Based on anticipated changes in absolute tonnes of product from 2000 to 2030
Percentage growth in demand
for live...
Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bn
tonnes cereals each year...
Much of the world’s livestock food comes from
small mixed farms in developing countries
Herrero et al. 2009
Developing-cou...
What’s special about animal/smallholder food?
• 90% of animal products are
produced and consumed
in the same country or re...
Various sources:
BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition ...
Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dai...
Strong growth in developing-country
crop-livestock systems presents opportunities
• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallh...
Healthy people, animals and ecosystems
• Our health depends
on our food and
nutritional security
• Our food and nutritiona...
The diverse ‘health’ aspects of food security
Food and
nutritional
security
Healthy
people
Healthy
animals
Healthy
eco-
sy...
Healthy people
Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
hungry people
vulnerable to food
insecurity
inadequate diets
overconsumer...
The double burden: hunger & obesity
• 2.1 billion people
suffer from over-
weight or obesity
• Two-thirds of obese
people ...
The ‘Goldilocks approach’ to animal-source foods
Not too little
Not too much
Just right!
As countries get rich, more food is wasted
• Worldwide 1/3 of food, worth $1 trillion, is lost or wasted
• Half the food w...
Healthy
animals
Steinfeld et al. 2006
Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal
health, persist between rich and poor countries
So...
A few major diseases cause most losses
in Africa and South Asia
Estimates from
BMGF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Billion$lostyearly
S...
Food safety in developing countries
• Most milk, meat and
eggs are sold in
informal markets
• Women predominate
food proce...
Most (75%) emerging diseases come from animals
ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
...
Almost all losses are in developing countries
A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each year
kill 2.2 million people and sicke...
Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on
one billion poor livestock keepers
Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Ma...
Period
Cost
(conservative estimates)
6 outbreaks excluding SARS
− Nipah virus (Malaysia)
− West Nile fever (USA)
− HPAI (A...
199
8
2007
Diseases from poor countries threaten
global industries (ASF & $150 billion world pork)
Healthy
ecosystems
Livestock and ecosystem health
• Livestock emit greenhouse gases but
improving production efficiencies is
key to reducing ...
As much as half of the agricultural
GHG emissions come from animals
Herrero et al. 2013
GHG per kg of animal protein produ...
A global water crisis
• 2 billion people
lack access
• Demand is growing;
freshwater is getting
scarcer
• 70% of total
fre...
Ten
science
contributions
Option 1:
Balance consumption of animal-source foods
• Ensure undernourished
(poor) people have
regular access to modest
q...
Option 2:
Reduce food waste
• Reduce waste of
perishable milk,
meat and egg
products (mostly
from farm to market)
• Find s...
Option 3:
Make animal-source foods safer and fairer
• Simple and cheap interventions
can lead to substantial
improvements ...
Option 4:
Employ One-Health approaches to control zoonoses
• Control zoonoses in animal hosts
- Median benefit to cost rat...
Option 5:
Improve the health of farm animals
• Better control animal
diseases, which cause
1/3 of the productivity
gaps in...
Vaccines save lives of animals that both
increase food security and reduce poverty
Option 6:
Develop and improve livestock...
Option 7:
Provide innovations & incentives for managing disease
• Develop and test technologies
• Build on local capacity
...
Option 8:
Improve the efficiency/productivity of smallholders
Improve livestock
efficiency to produce
more product
per uni...
Developing countries can mitigate GHG emissions
without moving to industrial grain-fed systems:
e.g. through improved effi...
Option 10:
Provide improved feed that uses less water
30% reduction in
water needed for
1 litre of milk
by improving
sorgh...
ILRI use of Ecohealth Approaches: Examples
Predicting the risk of H7N9
infections
in live poultry markets in
Conclusions
• More food, especially animal-source food,
must be produced in new ways that don’t
harm our health or environ...
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Healthy people, animals and ecosystems for global food and nutritional security

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Presented by Jimmy Smith (with Delia Grace, Fred Unger, Hung Nguyen, Purvi Mehta, Bernard Bett and Shirley Tarawali) at the 5th biennial conference of the International Association for Ecology and Health, Montreal, Canada, 11−15 August 2014


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Healthy people, animals and ecosystems for global food and nutritional security

  1. 1. Healthy people, animals and ecosystems for global food and nutritional security 5th biennial conference of the International Association for Ecology and Health Montreal, Canada, 11−15 August 2014 Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI With Delia Grace  Fred Unger  Hung Nguyen  Purvi Mehta  Bernard Bett  Shirley Tarawali
  2. 2. The argument • Finding ways to better feed and nourish a population of some 10 billion people by 2050 daunts today’s agricultural scientists, livestock scientists in particular • We need to produce much more animal- source foods and more sustainably − without hurting our environment or threatening public health
  3. 3. The argument (2) • The health of people, animals and ecologies depend utterly on each other − and in ways we only partially yet understand • Feeding our growing world sustainably requires breaking down walls between the livestock, health, environmental sectors • Failure to use holistic approaches will fail to find win-win-win solutions for all three sectors • Disaster in any one sector impinges on the others
  4. 4. Some definitions • Food security ‘All people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food prefer- ences for an active and healthy life’ − WHO 1996 • As commonly used, > ‘food security’ = food quantity > ‘nutritional security’ = food quality
  5. 5. Food security and livestock production
  6. 6. Is global food security and sustainable food production possible? How will the world feed itself sustainably by the time the population stabilizes about 2050? • 60% more food than is produced now will be needed • 75% of this must come from producing more food from the same amount of land • The higher production must be achieved while reducing poverty and addressing environmental, social and health concerns • This greater production will have to be achieved with temperatures that may be 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s
  7. 7. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 Millionmetrictonnes developing developed FAO 2006
  8. 8. FAO 2012 Based on anticipated changes in absolute tonnes of product from 2000 to 2030 Percentage growth in demand for livestock products: 2000−2030
  9. 9. Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050 From 2bn−3bn tonnes cereals each year From 664m−1bn tonnes dairy each year From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
  10. 10. Much of the world’s livestock food comes from small mixed farms in developing countries Herrero et al. 2009 Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supply much of the world’s livestock products
  11. 11. What’s special about animal/smallholder food? • 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same country or region • Most are produced by smallholders • Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’ • 500 million smallholders produce 80% of the developing world’s food • 43% of the agricultural workforce is female
  12. 12. Various sources: BMGF, FAO and ILRI Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries Region (definition of ‘smallholder’) % production by smallholder livestock farms Beef Chicken meat Sheep/goat meat Milk Pork Eggs East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals) 60-90 Bangladesh (< 3ha land) 65 77 78 65 77 India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 71 Vietnam (small scale) 80 Philippines (backyard) 50 35
  13. 13. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers Vietnam pig industry • 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 pigs • Industrial pig production could grow to meet no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
  14. 14. Strong growth in developing-country crop-livestock systems presents opportunities • Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, it’s expected that: ﹣One-third will find alternate livelihoods ﹣One-third may or may not remain part of the transformation of the livestock sector ﹣One-third will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods • The coming transitions and consolidations of today’s smallholder crop-livestock systems present opportunities to increase food production while benefiting the environment, socio-economic equity and human health
  15. 15. Healthy people, animals and ecosystems • Our health depends on our food and nutritional security • Our food and nutritional security (as well as our health) in turn depends on the health of our animals and our agro-ecosystems
  16. 16. The diverse ‘health’ aspects of food security Food and nutritional security Healthy people Healthy animals Healthy eco- systems Balanced human diets Food waste reduced Judicious use of natural resources Minimal pollution Food safe for human consumption Zoonotic diseases stopped or controlled More productive animals More animal- source foods Environmental services protected Food waste reduced Reduced use of natural resources Reduced GHG emissions per unit of commodity
  17. 17. Healthy people
  18. 18. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today hungry people vulnerable to food insecurity inadequate diets overconsumers balanced diets Malnutrition is costly. FAO estimates the costs of malnutrition to be as high as US$3.5 trillion a year
  19. 19. The double burden: hunger & obesity • 2.1 billion people suffer from over- weight or obesity • Two-thirds of obese people live in poor countries • No country has had significant decreases in obesity in the last 33 years Underweight females Overweight females Ethiopia Nigeria South Africa
  20. 20. The ‘Goldilocks approach’ to animal-source foods Not too little Not too much Just right!
  21. 21. As countries get rich, more food is wasted • Worldwide 1/3 of food, worth $1 trillion, is lost or wasted • Half the food wasted in rich countries is fit for human consumption FAO 2011
  22. 22. Healthy animals
  23. 23. Steinfeld et al. 2006 Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries Some developing-country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
  24. 24. A few major diseases cause most losses in Africa and South Asia Estimates from BMGF 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Billion$lostyearly South Asia Africa NB: No data exists for PPR in South Asia but it is known to be widespread in the region
  25. 25. Food safety in developing countries • Most milk, meat and eggs are sold in informal markets • Women predominate food processing & sale • Most food in wet markets had high levels of standards • Food-borne disease is a major cause of diarrhea 0 50 100 Lower resp. infect. HIV/AIDS Diarrheal diseases Stroke Ischaemic heart disease Malaria Preterm birth comp. Tuberculosis Birth asphysia Protein/energy malnut. Deaths per 100,000 population Top 10 causes of death in low income countries (2012)
  26. 26. Most (75%) emerging diseases come from animals ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012 Emerging zoonotic disease events, 1940−2012
  27. 27. Almost all losses are in developing countries A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each year kill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses
  28. 28. Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
  29. 29. Period Cost (conservative estimates) 6 outbreaks excluding SARS − Nipah virus (Malaysia) − West Nile fever (USA) − HPAI (Asia, Europe) − BSE (US) − Rift Valley fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) − BSE (UK) costs 1997−09 only 1998−2009 38.7 SARS 2002−2004 41.5 Total over 12 years 1998−2009 80.2 Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks (US$ billion) World Bank 2012 Giving an annual average of US$6.7 billion
  30. 30. 199 8 2007 Diseases from poor countries threaten global industries (ASF & $150 billion world pork)
  31. 31. Healthy ecosystems
  32. 32. Livestock and ecosystem health • Livestock emit greenhouse gases but improving production efficiencies is key to reducing their C footprints • Livestock feed can compete with staple crops and biofuels for water and other natural resources but – Pastures can help store carbon – Animals in smallholder systems consume crop wastes and natural pasture, not grain • Manure can pollute land and water but is an important source of organic matter for soil fertility
  33. 33. As much as half of the agricultural GHG emissions come from animals Herrero et al. 2013 GHG per kg of animal protein produced varies hugely: Big opportunities to mitigate
  34. 34. A global water crisis • 2 billion people lack access • Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarcer • 70% of total freshwater use is for agriculture, of which 31% is for livestock
  35. 35. Ten science contributions
  36. 36. Option 1: Balance consumption of animal-source foods • Ensure undernourished (poor) people have regular access to modest quantities of animal- source foods for their nutrition and health • Help over-nourished (rich) people whose health is at risk to reduce their consumption of animal-source foods
  37. 37. Option 2: Reduce food waste • Reduce waste of perishable milk, meat and egg products (mostly from farm to market) • Find safe ways to utilize foods contaminated by aflatoxins as animal feed
  38. 38. Option 3: Make animal-source foods safer and fairer • Simple and cheap interventions can lead to substantial improvements in food safety • Branding & certification of milk vendors in Kenya led to improved milk safety & saves the national economy $33 million per year • Training butchers in Nigeria led to better standards: Cost = $9 per butcher Savings = $780 per butcher per year from reduced cost of illness among consumers
  39. 39. Option 4: Employ One-Health approaches to control zoonoses • Control zoonoses in animal hosts - Median benefit to cost ratio = 4:1 • Make timely responses to zoonotic outbreaks − Can reduce costs by 90% Adapted from IOM 2009
  40. 40. Option 5: Improve the health of farm animals • Better control animal diseases, which cause 1/3 of the productivity gaps in developing countries losses worth 37% of the livestock sector value • Ensure that unhealthy livestock do not make for unsafe livestock foods in the markets 1 of 4 calves & lambs and 7 of 10 chickens, die from disease each year in Africa
  41. 41. Vaccines save lives of animals that both increase food security and reduce poverty Option 6: Develop and improve livestock vaccines An body technologies Vaccine technologies Cellular technologies Diagnos c technologies Genomic technologies Contagiousbovine pleuropneumonia EastCoastfever Africanswinefever Consor a for research & product development and capacity development Private sector GALVmed CRPs NARS Inter-gov agencies Improved vaccines and diagnos c tools Pestedespesruminants RiValleyfever Infec ous disease research: basic & applied ILVAC – a vaccine pla orm
  42. 42. Option 7: Provide innovations & incentives for managing disease • Develop and test technologies • Build on local capacity Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis
  43. 43. Option 8: Improve the efficiency/productivity of smallholders Improve livestock efficiency to produce more product per unit of input − land, water, labour, capital − and causing less environmental harm More livestock foods mean more food and better nutrition for the poor
  44. 44. Developing countries can mitigate GHG emissions without moving to industrial grain-fed systems: e.g. through improved efficiencies such as better feeds and feeding systems Option 9: Provide improved feeds for fewer GHG
  45. 45. Option 10: Provide improved feed that uses less water 30% reduction in water needed for 1 litre of milk by improving sorghum stalk digestibility by 5%
  46. 46. ILRI use of Ecohealth Approaches: Examples Predicting the risk of H7N9 infections in live poultry markets in
  47. 47. Conclusions • More food, especially animal-source food, must be produced in new ways that don’t harm our health or environment • Human, animal and ecological health are inextricably linked and together form a foundation for food and nutritional security • Research is needed not only to produce new knowledge and technologies but also to join up diverse disciplinary and sector expertise in new kinds of productive partnerships
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