An approach to applied resilience

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Poster prepared May 2014

Poster prepared May 2014

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  • 1. AN APPROACH TO applied resilience Resilience is defined as a capacity that ensures stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences and enables support to trajectories enhancing growth and prosperity. HOW DO WE DEFINE RESILIENCE? Resilience pathways facilitate the development of long-term strategies and interventions. Monitoring and evaluation efforts focus on the causal relationship between investment and impact; whether the indicators that are assumed to reflect progress along a trajectory, both qualitatively and quantitatively, manifest change towards enhanced resilience and growth. This is not a linear process; instead there are multiple feedbacks which occur, and this methodology incorporates the dynamic change in behavior, relationships, networks, activities, people and organizations along the timescale of the resilience pathway. M&E: IMPACT THROUGH RESILIENCE PATHWAYS (EDE-MTP: Ending Drought Emergencies Medium Term Plan, ASAL: arid and semi-arid lands, APC: arid and pastoral county) SOCIAL • Land use support • Community support • Information • Health • Education • Governance • Social shocks ECONOMIC • Infrastructure • Trade access • Financial services • Wealth • Financial conditions • Livelihood / Income diversification • Economic shocks • Water resources • Land use • Ecosystem services • Population and per capita resources • Climate • Natural resource shocks ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMSEDE MTP Pillars PEACEAND SECURITY INFRASTRUCTUREHUMANCAPITAL (a)Education(b)Health LIVELIHOODSDROUGHTRISK MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT EDUCATION • Children enrolled • Years of schooling • Mean years of schooling • Expected years of schooling HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT INDICATORS REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH • Adolescent fertility • Maternal mortality • Labour force participation LABOUR MARKET EMPOWERMENT • Educational attainment (secondary and above) • Parliamentary representation HEALTH • Nutrition • Child mortality • Life expectancy at birth • Assets • Gross national income per capital • Floor, Electricity, Water, Toilet, Cooking Fuel LIVING STANDARDS PROJECT ACTIONS LIVELIHOODS • Establish and/or rehabilitate meat- processing factories • Strengthen disease control + surveillance systems along stock routes & trade markets • Adopt + implement the Draft Policy on Small Arms +Light Weapons • Build presence + capacity of police service + law enforcement agencies INFRASTRUCTURE • Construct + upgrade/rehabilitate 2,209km of priority roads to enhance connectivity and market access • Construct 20 solar-powered ICT centres EDUCATION • Recruit + deploy more teachers to schools in APCs and improve pupil/teacher ratio • Maintain scholarship places for girls’ education in APCs HEALTH • Equip all health facilities with basic medical equipment, strengthen outreach/mobile clinics among nomadic communities PEACE AND HUMAN SECURITY MID-TERM OUTCOMES • Reduction in violent conflicts in all regions within ASALs • Improvement in police/population ratio to UN standards • NER at all levels, disaggregated by gender • Quality grade at KCSE (C+ and above), disaggregated by gender • Proportion of fully immunized children • Proportion of mothers delivering with skilled provider and/or Maternal mortality rate • Early recovery and rapid return to sustainable development pathways are achieved post-drought • Long-term investments in safety-nets provide sustained protection of household assets • Response time for drought contingency fund • National and county plans and budgets mainstream drought risk reduction, climate change adaptation, social protection & EDE commitments. • Proportion of priority roads within the target regions that are paved and maintained • Rate of connection of social infrastructure, community infrastructure, small businesses & households (both grid & off- grid) Modeling for investment targeting; Decision support analysis; Monitoring for impact. NB: Please note that project actions within pillars can contribute to more than one system. Unit of measurement: householdUnit of measurement: coarser • Indicators of rangeland conditions • Indicators of herd dynamics - condition and size • Indicators of trade - volume, price, terms of trade • Indicators of peace and security - conflict, access to resources, mobility, etc. MEASURING hi IN DEVELOPMENT INDICES SYSTEMS-LEVEL INDICATORS For any queries, please contact Dr Katie Downie, Coordinator of the Technical Consortium for Building Resilience in the Horn of Africa. Direct line: +254 20 422 3066 Mobile: +254 708 985 664 Email: k.downie@cgiar.org Skype: kdowniengini www.technicalconsortium.org PROJECT 2 3-5 YEAR PROJECT CYCLE BASELINE PROJECT PROJECT1 R ESULTS FRAMEWOR K EXTERNAL INFLUENCES ACTIONS PROJECT-LEVEL MONITORING PROJECT 3 OUTPUTS Whether a relationship exists between project actions and outcomes IMPACT-LEVEL MONITORING 6-20 YEAR MONITORING PERIOD RESILIENCE PATHWAY: Learning cycle updates baseline CHANGES IN SYSTEMS e.g. hi in: rangeland indicators, trade indicators, peace and security indicators MID-TERM OUTCOMES MID-TERM REVIEWLC LC Barriers to decisions, institutional norms, capacities Reflects pre- project status of important indicators (health, education etc.) A project’s strategy for achieving a specific output Cumulative contributions towards outputs Learning cycle: CHANGES IN DEVELOPMENT INDICES e.g. hi in: health status, educational status, living standards Building Resilience in the Horn of Africa etc. ATTRIBUTIONGAP What is an attribution gap? It is critical that both attribution and contribution of individual projects, actions and processes are understood in their role toward achieving outcomes along designated impact pathways. The conceiving of these pathways needs to be supported by clear processes, actions and projects that can show verified contributions toward the pathway and transparent attribution in enhancing resilience. An ex post impact assessment, once an individual project is completed, allows an understanding and ‘plausible’ bridge linking a project’s direct benefits with wider level impacts. This requires a ‘persuasive case’, requiring triangulation with multiple data sources, quantitative analysis, qualitative data and verbal testimony to illustrate attribution toward resilience. These system- level indicators are examples that could be representative of those associated with production activities that contribute to changes in living standards. MEASURING hi IN INDICATORS Please note that the project actions and mid- outcomes in the table above are examples taken from IGAD member state investment planning documents - the Country Program Papers. PRACTICAL APPLICATION INTERNAL INFLUENCES • • • LOWER RESOLUTON HIGHER RESOLUTON Impact of investment to enhanced resilience is reflected over a longer timescale Stock-take of relationship between project and impact Reflection Action Monitoring Reflection Action Monitoring Reflection Action Monitoring