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Climate change & variability and extreme events adaptation<br />What are the challenges for agriculture research in assist...
Helps to consider 2 main aspects<br />Role of agriculture in food systems<br />(multiple functions)<br />
“Food System” concept<br />integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes<br />Food System ACTIVITIES<br />Producing food:...
Ecosystem services
Access to natural capital</li></ul>Social<br /><ul><li>Income
Employment
Wealth
Social capital
Political capital
Human capital</li></ul>Food Security<br />FOOD UTILISATION<br />FOOD <br />ACCESS<br /><ul><li>Affordability
Allocation
Preference
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety</li></ul>FOOD <br />AVAILABILITY<br /><ul><li>Production
Distribution
Exchange</li></ul>Ericksen, P. Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (GEC: 2007)<br />
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Climate change and variability and extreme events adaptation: what are the challenges for agriculture research in assisting climate change/food security practice and policy?

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A presentation prepared by John Ingram for the workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.

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Transcript of "Climate change and variability and extreme events adaptation: what are the challenges for agriculture research in assisting climate change/food security practice and policy?"

  1. 1. Climate change & variability and extreme events adaptation<br />What are the challenges for agriculture research in assisting climate change / food security practice and policy?<br />Presented by John Ingram (ESSP-GECAFS, University of Oxford) at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008<br />
  2. 2. Helps to consider 2 main aspects<br />Role of agriculture in food systems<br />(multiple functions)<br />
  3. 3. “Food System” concept<br />integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes<br />Food System ACTIVITIES<br />Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology, …<br />Processing & packagingfood: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …<br />Distributing & retailingfood: transport, marketing, advertising, …<br />Consumingfood: acquisition, preparation, customs, …<br />Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:<br />Environment<br /><ul><li>Ecosystem stocks & flows
  4. 4. Ecosystem services
  5. 5. Access to natural capital</li></ul>Social<br /><ul><li>Income
  6. 6. Employment
  7. 7. Wealth
  8. 8. Social capital
  9. 9. Political capital
  10. 10. Human capital</li></ul>Food Security<br />FOOD UTILISATION<br />FOOD <br />ACCESS<br /><ul><li>Affordability
  11. 11. Allocation
  12. 12. Preference
  13. 13. Nutritional Value
  14. 14. Social Value
  15. 15. Food Safety</li></ul>FOOD <br />AVAILABILITY<br /><ul><li>Production
  16. 16. Distribution
  17. 17. Exchange</li></ul>Ericksen, P. Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (GEC: 2007)<br />
  18. 18. Helps to consider 2 main aspects<br />Role of agriculture in food systems<br />(multiple functions)<br />Food systems in the context of drivers and feedbacks (multiple stressors and consequences)<br />
  19. 19. Food Systems<br />in context of drivers and feedbacks<br />Environmental feedbacks<br />e.g. water quality, GHGs<br />Food System ACTIVITIES<br />Producing<br />Processing & Packaging<br />Distributing & Retailing<br />Consuming<br />GEC DRIVERS<br />Changes in:<br />Land cover & soils, Atmospheric <br />Comp., Climate variability & means, <br />Water availability & quality, <br />Nutrient availability & cycling, <br />Biodiversity, Sea currents <br />& salinity, Sea level<br />‘Natural’<br />DRIVERS<br />e.g. Volcanoes<br />Solar cycles<br />Food System OUTCOMES<br />Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental <br />Security, and other Societal Interests<br />DRIVERS’Interactions<br />Socioeconomic<br />DRIVERS<br />Changes in:<br />Demographics, Economics,<br />Socio-political context, <br />Cultural context<br />Science & Technology<br />Food<br />Access<br />Food<br />Utilisation<br />Food<br />Availability<br />Env<br />Social <br />Socioeconomic feedbacks<br />e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion <br />Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.<br />
  20. 20. Agriculture research faces<br />two major challenges in relation to CC<br />To help develop production systems that both improve food supply in the face of climate change while simultaneously reducing factors responsible for climate forcing [impacts, adaptation & mitigation]<br />
  21. 21. CLIMATE CHANGE<br />REDUCED CLIMATE FORCING<br />What will be the IMPACT of climate change on current production systems?<br />NEW PRODUCTION SYSTEMS<br />How can current production systems be ADAPTED to cope with climate change?<br />CURRENT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS<br />How can current production systems be developed to MITIGATE further climate change?<br />IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY<br />
  22. 22. Agriculture research faces<br />two major challenges in relation to CC<br />To help develop production systems that both improve food supply in the face of climate change while simultaneously reducing factors responsible for climate forcing<br />To work more effectively with a range of other disciplines to help deliver agronomic outputs<br />better integrated within the overall context of food security<br />better tuned to the needs of food security policy formulation<br />
  23. 23. Plot<br />Farm<br />Nations<br />Regions<br />Landscape<br />Spatial<br />resolution<br />Crop<br />Stands<br />Cropping Systems<br />Food<br />Systems<br />Farming Systems<br />Crop Productivity<br />Crop Production<br />Food Security<br />Key<br />questions<br />How will climate change affect crop productivity?<br />How will climate change affect farm & regional production?<br />How will climate change affect food security?<br /><ul><li>Nutrient and water use efficiency
  24. 24. Micronutrients
  25. 25. Stand establishment
  26. 26. Losses to weed competition
  27. 27. Mechanistic coupling of pests and diseases
  28. 28. Simulation of quality
  29. 29. Linking “sole crop” models
  30. 30. Farm-level databases including management variables
  31. 31. Inclusion of other crops
  32. 32. Using model outputs to analyse system performance
  33. 33. Profitability for farmers
  34. 34. Food Systems and vulnerability concepts
  35. 35. Regional-level scenarios
  36. 36. Integrated socioeconomic-biophysical models
  37. 37. Feedbacks of management scenarios to socioeconomic and environmental conditions
  38. 38. Policies that facilitate adaptation adoption</li></ul>Key Research Issues<br />(Ingram, Gregory & Izac. AGEE, 2007)<br />
  39. 39. Key agriculture science issues<br />Better understand the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on production systems, in context of food system<br />Assess technical and policy options for both reducing the deleterious impacts and enhancing any benefits of climate change on production systems, while minimising further environmental degradation<br />Understand how best to address the information needs of farmers and policy makers, and report and communicate agriculture research results in a manner that will assist the development of food systems adapted to climate change<br />Couple research on impacts and adaptation more effectively to food security and environment policy<br />
  40. 40. Two important considerations<br />Spatial and temporal level of agriculture research in the context of climate change <br />Food production in the broader context of food security and other societal goals<br />
  41. 41. Integrated scenario approach can help<br /><ul><li>based on the broad rationale, assumptions and outcomes of global scenarios, but allowing for regional deviation where needed
  42. 42. includes social, political, economic and climate drivers (multiple stresses)
  43. 43. communicates interests, attitudes and expectations; builds stakeholder/science team for further work
  44. 44. identifies and discusses adaptation options and tradeoffs amongst outcomes
  45. 45. helps integrate factors across different scales and levels
  46. 46. helps understand and communicate uncertainty</li></li></ul><li>Emerging Alliance and ESSP Challenge Program<br />“Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security”<br />Objectives<br />Close critical gaps in knowledge of how to enhance – and manage the tradeoffs between – food security, livelihood and environmental goals in the face of a changing climate [Outputs]<br />Develop and evaluate options for adapting to a changing climate to inform agricultural development, food security policy and donor investment strategies [Outcomes]<br />Assist farmers, policymakers, researchers and donors to continually monitor, assess and adjust their actions in response to a changing climate [Impacts]<br />
  47. 47. Workshop Session<br />Possible Research Questions<br />Perceptions of CC and links to (confusion with?) other drivers<br />Historical coping and role of institutions<br />Implications for development policy, strategy and practice<br />Nature of adaptive strategies across diverse livelihood systems<br />Role of research<br />
  48. 48. Way forward?<br />How to help identify adaptation pathways based on managing current climate risk?<br />How to help identify adaptation pathways under progressive climate change?<br />How to contribute to integrated scenario analyses?<br />How to use linked long-term agricultural experimental sites as a platform for CGIAR and CCCP development?<br />
  49. 49.
  50. 50. CCCP Research Framework<br />and Science Themes<br />Climate Variability and Change<br />Current agricultural<br />& food systems<br />Improved<br />Environmental<br />Benefits<br />Improved<br />Livelihoods<br />1 Diagnosis, context and tradeoff analysis<br />2 Role of macro-level policies<br />Improved<br />Food Security<br />3 Researcher/stakeholder interactions <br />Trade-offs<br />ADAPTATION PATHWAYS<br />4 Managing climate risk<br />5 Progressive climate change<br />6 Adaptation through mitigation<br />Adapted agricultural<br />& food systems<br />
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