Evidence of latter already occurs – conflicts between agriculturalists and pastoralists in the Sahel
Note that this interpretation of vulnerability is the “norm” for the global change community, but economists would have a different take on it. I like this interpretation, as it sees vulnerability as a characteristic of people and communities. So to look at it, and to see how to reduce it, you need info on the hazards faced (here, climate change) as well as on the features of vulnerability that define the populations you are looking at.
Informing targeted adaptation and mitigation investments for long term livestock sector development in Africa
Informing targeted adaptation and mitigationinvestments for long term livestock sectordevelopment in AfricaAbdou Fall9thConference of Ministers Responsible forLivestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19April 2013
OutlineBackgroundImpact of climate change on livestock systemsImpact of livestock on climate changeApproaches to adaptationApproaches to mitigationConclusions
– Livestock production systems in Africa are changingrapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed withshrinking natural resource base– Lots of drivers of future changes of livestock systems:– Population/ Urbanization– Growth in demand– Competition for natural resources– Climate change: warmer and more variableBackground
BackgroundIPCC (2007), Climate change projections, Africa Very likely increase in temperature, above globalmeans; Rainfall likely to decrease in Northern Africa andincrease in East Africa; inconsistent projections in theSahel (drier parts and wetter parts) Extreme events (very likely dry spells and flooding)
BackgroundRegions in Africa that will be most affected by climate changeare places with large numbers of vulnerable poor people thatdepend on livestock as a key livelihood strategyILRI has worked in the past:– To identify how are these regions likely to change– To identify the magnitudes of the expected impacts onlivestock systemsThis has informed the design and pilot testing of targetedadaptation an mitigation approaches framed in relation tovulnerability and risk management.5
Why is climate change so important to poorcountries?-80-60-40-200204060801982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000yearpercentage-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025rainfall variation around the meanGDP growth-80-60-40-200204060801982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000yearpercentage-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025rainfall variation around the meanGDP growthde Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)Ethiopia: Rainfall Variabilityand Growth in GrossDomestic Product (GDP)
Impact of climate change on livestock and livestocksystems• Will have important impacts at system levelwhich are poorly understood• Specific livestock system components that willbe affected include:• Feed and water availability• Disease distribution• Adaptation and survival of livestock
Climate change impacts on livestock and livestocksystemsFeed quantity, quality:Changes in land use systems, primaryproductivity, species composition andquality of the materials• Tradeoffs – conservation agriculture, feed, fuel• In semi-arid areas – importance of feed fromfood crop failures
NationalProductionMixed rainfedtemperateMixed rainfedhumidMixed rainfedarid2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050Burundi 9 9 14 18 -2 -9 - -Kenya 15 18 33 46 -5 -10 -1 -8Rwanda 11 15 13 19 5 4 1 3Tanzania -3 -8 7 9 -2 -6 -5 -11Uganda -2 -9 5 3 -5 -13 -1 -6There may be winners as well as losers …Simulated percentage pasture production changes to 2030 and 2050, bycountry and systemMean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenariosThornton et al. (2010)WinnersLosers
Animal Diseases and Climate Change•Climate change effect on disease iscomplex and difficult to predict.•Climate is an important but not the onlydriver of change in disease distribution(population, intensification of systems)Climate change impacts on livestock and livestocksystems
Tsetse Distribution and Climate ChangeModel predictions for to changes in tsetsedistribution to 2030 from current distributions formorsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right)tsetse groups as a result of changes in length ofgrowing periodNo change: AbsentPresence to AbsenceAbsence to PresenceNo change: PresentMcDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005
Impact of climate change on livestock and livestocksystems12Heat stress:Higher impact in high altitudes (reduced productivity);Lower impact in low altitudes where livestock ecotypeshave developed fitness traits to adapt to hot/dry orhot/humid ecosystemsBiodiversity :Loss of high value breeds/ ecotypes and their uniquegenes ( fitness traits).
Impact of Livestock on Climate changeA food chain perspective of GHG emissions(Livestock Long Shadow),Feed production: Fertilizer, fossil fuel, land usechange, firesLivestock rearing: Enteric ferm., manure mangt.Post-harvest:
Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa
Changes ingrowing conditionsto 2050Climate Change Risk / ImpactDifferent scenariosof the futureBiophysicalvulnerabilitySocialvulnerability14 indicatorsData reduction analysis 4 factors, combinedinto one “overall”vulnerability indicatorHot-spotsHot-spotsHot-spots of climate riskAND vulnerabilityVulnerability
Highest vulnerabilityquartile (4)Second-highest vulnerabilityquartile (3)Possibly severe LGPloss (>20% to 2050)• Some MRA systems inSahel• Mixed rainfed andhighland perennial systemsin Great Lakes region of EAfrica• LGA systems in parts ofE Africa• MRA, LGA systems in large partsof Sahel• Livestock systems and somemixed systems in parts of E andsouthern Africa• Coastal systems in E and parts ofsouthern AfricaPossibly moderate LGPloss (5-20% to 2050)• Mixed systems in parts ofE Africa• Coastal systems of parts of WAfrica• Tree crop systems in parts of WAfrica• Forest-based systems in centralAfrica• Root-based and root-mixedsystems in south central AfricaSynthesis of hot-spotsMRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems
18Adaptation approachesDiversification of livelihood strategies: Payment ofEnvironmental Services in rangelandsLargest land use systemPotentially a large C sinkCould be an important incomediversification sourceDifficulties in: Measuring and monitoringC stocks; Establishment of paymentschemes; Dealing with mobilepastoralists, non clear land use andproperty rights
19Adaptation approachesSecuring livestock assets: Index Based LivestockInsurance, IBLIInnovative index based insurance to manage weatherrelated risk; drought related livestock losses)… Piloted inKenya and Ethiopia•Protect productive assets of the poor•All insured clients in a geographical area are compensated whenan external independent indicator (NDVI) that predicts rangelandstate, reaches a strike point.Challenges to go at scale: Need for high quality data to designand price insurance contracts; Effective demand ; Cost effectivedelivery systems.
20Adaptation approachesResponsiveness of feeding systems•Assessment of feed resources a the national and locallevels•‘Moving megajoules’ feed surplus to feed deficit areas•Introduction of feed processing and storage technologies
Mitigation approachesAdaptation options can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa:– Increasing efficiency/productivity to producelower GHG per unit of product (milk, meat)through sustainable intensification:• Improved feeding systems; Superior breeds• Market incentives: Inputs and services provision• Managing negative environmental externalities
Conclusion Climate change is happening but we need to act evenif the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain Impacts of climate change on livestock in Africa isheterogeneous but potentially severe, especially inarid and semi-arid areas. Adaptation to climate change need to be consideredin the context of other significant drivers of change.22
ConclusionPES and IBLI are potential incomediversification and risk management options inthe face of climate change that need furtherinvestment in AfricaIf they are to be successful, both adaptationand mitigation options will require:– investments in terms of infrastructure (roads,market development, development of waterresources, market information, telecom)– Supportive policies, regulations and institutions 23
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