Informing targeted adaptation and mitigationinvestments for long term livestock sectordevelopment in AfricaAbdou Fall9thCo...
OutlineBackgroundImpact of climate change on livestock systemsImpact of livestock on climate changeApproaches to adapt...
– Livestock production systems in Africa are changingrapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed withshrinking n...
BackgroundIPCC (2007), Climate change projections, Africa Very likely increase in temperature, above globalmeans; Rainf...
BackgroundRegions in Africa that will be most affected by climate changeare places with large numbers of vulnerable poor p...
Why is climate change so important to poorcountries?-80-60-40-200204060801982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931...
Impact of climate change on livestock and livestocksystems• Will have important impacts at system levelwhich are poorly un...
Climate change impacts on livestock and livestocksystemsFeed quantity, quality:Changes in land use systems, primaryprodu...
NationalProductionMixed rainfedtemperateMixed rainfedhumidMixed rainfedarid2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050Burundi ...
Animal Diseases and Climate Change•Climate change effect on disease iscomplex and difficult to predict.•Climate is an impo...
Tsetse Distribution and Climate ChangeModel predictions for to changes in tsetsedistribution to 2030 from current distribu...
Impact of climate change on livestock and livestocksystems12Heat stress:Higher impact in high altitudes (reduced productiv...
Impact of Livestock on Climate changeA food chain perspective of GHG emissions(Livestock Long Shadow),Feed production: F...
 Livestock:9- 18%anthropogenic emissions 80% agricultural emissionsContributors toclimate change
Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa
Changes ingrowing conditionsto 2050Climate Change Risk / ImpactDifferent scenariosof the futureBiophysicalvulnerabilitySoc...
Highest vulnerabilityquartile (4)Second-highest vulnerabilityquartile (3)Possibly severe LGPloss (>20% to 2050)• Some MRA ...
18Adaptation approachesDiversification of livelihood strategies: Payment ofEnvironmental Services in rangelandsLargest lan...
19Adaptation approachesSecuring livestock assets: Index Based LivestockInsurance, IBLIInnovative index based insurance to ...
20Adaptation approachesResponsiveness of feeding systems•Assessment of feed resources a the national and locallevels•‘Movi...
Mitigation approachesAdaptation options can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa:– Increasing efficiency/productivity to...
Conclusion Climate change is happening but we need to act evenif the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain Impacts of cl...
ConclusionPES and IBLI are potential incomediversification and risk management options inthe face of climate change that ...
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit isgiven t...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Informing targeted adaptation and mitigation investments for long term livestock sector development in Africa

5,455 views

Published on

Presented by Abdou Fall at the 9th Conference of Ministers Responsible for Livestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19 April 2013

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
5,455
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
5,035
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Evidence of latter already occurs – conflicts between agriculturalists and pastoralists in the Sahel
  • Note that this interpretation of vulnerability is the “norm” for the global change community, but economists would have a different take on it. I like this interpretation, as it sees vulnerability as a characteristic of people and communities. So to look at it, and to see how to reduce it, you need info on the hazards faced (here, climate change) as well as on the features of vulnerability that define the populations you are looking at.
  • Informing targeted adaptation and mitigation investments for long term livestock sector development in Africa

    1. 1. Informing targeted adaptation and mitigationinvestments for long term livestock sectordevelopment in AfricaAbdou Fall9thConference of Ministers Responsible forLivestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19April 2013
    2. 2. OutlineBackgroundImpact of climate change on livestock systemsImpact of livestock on climate changeApproaches to adaptationApproaches to mitigationConclusions
    3. 3. – Livestock production systems in Africa are changingrapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed withshrinking natural resource base– Lots of drivers of future changes of livestock systems:– Population/ Urbanization– Growth in demand– Competition for natural resources– Climate change: warmer and more variableBackground
    4. 4. BackgroundIPCC (2007), Climate change projections, Africa Very likely increase in temperature, above globalmeans; Rainfall likely to decrease in Northern Africa andincrease in East Africa; inconsistent projections in theSahel (drier parts and wetter parts) Extreme events (very likely dry spells and flooding)
    5. 5. BackgroundRegions in Africa that will be most affected by climate changeare places with large numbers of vulnerable poor people thatdepend on livestock as a key livelihood strategyILRI has worked in the past:– To identify how are these regions likely to change– To identify the magnitudes of the expected impacts onlivestock systemsThis has informed the design and pilot testing of targetedadaptation an mitigation approaches framed in relation tovulnerability and risk management.5
    6. 6. Why is climate change so important to poorcountries?-80-60-40-200204060801982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000yearpercentage-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025rainfall variation around the meanGDP growth-80-60-40-200204060801982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000yearpercentage-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025rainfall variation around the meanGDP growthde Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)Ethiopia: Rainfall Variabilityand Growth in GrossDomestic Product (GDP)
    7. 7. Impact of climate change on livestock and livestocksystems• Will have important impacts at system levelwhich are poorly understood• Specific livestock system components that willbe affected include:• Feed and water availability• Disease distribution• Adaptation and survival of livestock
    8. 8. Climate change impacts on livestock and livestocksystemsFeed quantity, quality:Changes in land use systems, primaryproductivity, species composition andquality of the materials• Tradeoffs – conservation agriculture, feed, fuel• In semi-arid areas – importance of feed fromfood crop failures
    9. 9. NationalProductionMixed rainfedtemperateMixed rainfedhumidMixed rainfedarid2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050Burundi 9 9 14 18 -2 -9 - -Kenya 15 18 33 46 -5 -10 -1 -8Rwanda 11 15 13 19 5 4 1 3Tanzania -3 -8 7 9 -2 -6 -5 -11Uganda -2 -9 5 3 -5 -13 -1 -6There may be winners as well as losers …Simulated percentage pasture production changes to 2030 and 2050, bycountry and systemMean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenariosThornton et al. (2010)WinnersLosers
    10. 10. Animal Diseases and Climate Change•Climate change effect on disease iscomplex and difficult to predict.•Climate is an important but not the onlydriver of change in disease distribution(population, intensification of systems)Climate change impacts on livestock and livestocksystems
    11. 11. Tsetse Distribution and Climate ChangeModel predictions for to changes in tsetsedistribution to 2030 from current distributions formorsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right)tsetse groups as a result of changes in length ofgrowing periodNo change: AbsentPresence to AbsenceAbsence to PresenceNo change: PresentMcDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005
    12. 12. Impact of climate change on livestock and livestocksystems12Heat stress:Higher impact in high altitudes (reduced productivity);Lower impact in low altitudes where livestock ecotypeshave developed fitness traits to adapt to hot/dry orhot/humid ecosystemsBiodiversity :Loss of high value breeds/ ecotypes and their uniquegenes ( fitness traits).
    13. 13. Impact of Livestock on Climate changeA food chain perspective of GHG emissions(Livestock Long Shadow),Feed production: Fertilizer, fossil fuel, land usechange, firesLivestock rearing: Enteric ferm., manure mangt.Post-harvest:
    14. 14.  Livestock:9- 18%anthropogenic emissions 80% agricultural emissionsContributors toclimate change
    15. 15. Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa
    16. 16. Changes ingrowing conditionsto 2050Climate Change Risk / ImpactDifferent scenariosof the futureBiophysicalvulnerabilitySocialvulnerability14 indicatorsData reduction analysis 4 factors, combinedinto one “overall”vulnerability indicatorHot-spotsHot-spotsHot-spots of climate riskAND vulnerabilityVulnerability
    17. 17. Highest vulnerabilityquartile (4)Second-highest vulnerabilityquartile (3)Possibly severe LGPloss (>20% to 2050)• Some MRA systems inSahel• Mixed rainfed andhighland perennial systemsin Great Lakes region of EAfrica• LGA systems in parts ofE Africa• MRA, LGA systems in large partsof Sahel• Livestock systems and somemixed systems in parts of E andsouthern Africa• Coastal systems in E and parts ofsouthern AfricaPossibly moderate LGPloss (5-20% to 2050)• Mixed systems in parts ofE Africa• Coastal systems of parts of WAfrica• Tree crop systems in parts of WAfrica• Forest-based systems in centralAfrica• Root-based and root-mixedsystems in south central AfricaSynthesis of hot-spotsMRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems
    18. 18. 18Adaptation approachesDiversification of livelihood strategies: Payment ofEnvironmental Services in rangelandsLargest land use systemPotentially a large C sinkCould be an important incomediversification sourceDifficulties in: Measuring and monitoringC stocks; Establishment of paymentschemes; Dealing with mobilepastoralists, non clear land use andproperty rights
    19. 19. 19Adaptation approachesSecuring livestock assets: Index Based LivestockInsurance, IBLIInnovative index based insurance to manage weatherrelated risk; drought related livestock losses)… Piloted inKenya and Ethiopia•Protect productive assets of the poor•All insured clients in a geographical area are compensated whenan external independent indicator (NDVI) that predicts rangelandstate, reaches a strike point.Challenges to go at scale: Need for high quality data to designand price insurance contracts; Effective demand ; Cost effectivedelivery systems.
    20. 20. 20Adaptation approachesResponsiveness of feeding systems•Assessment of feed resources a the national and locallevels•‘Moving megajoules’ feed surplus to feed deficit areas•Introduction of feed processing and storage technologies
    21. 21. Mitigation approachesAdaptation options can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa:– Increasing efficiency/productivity to producelower GHG per unit of product (milk, meat)through sustainable intensification:• Improved feeding systems; Superior breeds• Market incentives: Inputs and services provision• Managing negative environmental externalities
    22. 22. Conclusion Climate change is happening but we need to act evenif the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain Impacts of climate change on livestock in Africa isheterogeneous but potentially severe, especially inarid and semi-arid areas. Adaptation to climate change need to be consideredin the context of other significant drivers of change.22
    23. 23. ConclusionPES and IBLI are potential incomediversification and risk management options inthe face of climate change that need furtherinvestment in AfricaIf they are to be successful, both adaptationand mitigation options will require:– investments in terms of infrastructure (roads,market development, development of waterresources, market information, telecom)– Supportive policies, regulations and institutions 23
    24. 24. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit isgiven to ILRI.better lives through livestockilri.org

    ×