Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems
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Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems

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Presented by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero and A. Ayantunde at the Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) ...

Presented by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero and A. Ayantunde at the Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project Research Planning Meeting, Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Research Support Program (LCC CRSP), ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011.

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  • Points: explain NDVI; high variability; cyclical nature (ENSO); point out events.
  • Points: Kajiado dynamicsLaikpia dynamics and reasons for possible difference
  • Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.

Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems Presentation Transcript

  • Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems
    P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero, A. Ayantunde
    Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project: Research Planning Meeting
    ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011
  • Pastoralists and climate risk
    OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens
  • Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ.
  • Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ
  • Rainfall and NDVI
    Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.
  • Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality
    Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya
    Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya
  • Forage available (kg/ha) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS
  • Forage deviation (%) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS
  • Climate Change
    Image of the Future
  • Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event
    Ericksen et al, 2011
  • Unpublished IRLI analysis
  • East Africa:
    Simulated plant funtional types:
    (top) 20th century
    (bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)
    Doherty et al 2009
  • Adaptation research priorities
    • Context of rapidly changing production systems and livelihood strategies
    • Will CC mean more or less livestock production in marginal areas (CC to Livestock keepers)?
    • What do the exposure thresholds mean for dryland areas?
    • Constraints on social/ econ/ institutional issues of adaptive capacity
    • Safety nets
    • Markets
    • Land tenure
    • SCENARIOS as a planning tool
  • Thank you…
    Photo: P. Little 2011