Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems<br />P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenba...
Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ.<br />
Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ<br />
Rainfall and NDVI<br />Figure 1:  Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado distr...
Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
Forage available (kg/ha) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010).  Source of information:  GL CRSP LEWS<br />
Forage deviation (%) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010).  Source of information:  GL CRSP LEWS<br />
Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
Climate change exposure:  changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one clim...
Adaptation research priorities<br /><ul><li>Context of rapidly changing production systems and livelihood strategies
Will CC mean more or less livestock production in marginal areas (CC to Livestock keepers)?
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Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems

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Presented by P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero and A. Ayantunde at the Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project Research Planning Meeting, Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Research Support Program (LCC CRSP), ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011.

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  • Points: explain NDVI; high variability; cyclical nature (ENSO); point out events.
  • Points: Kajiado dynamicsLaikpia dynamics and reasons for possible difference
  • Points: IPCC, GCM downscaling; three impacts: temperature, change in precip, more CO2.
  • Climate variability and climate change in pastoral systems

    1. 1. Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems<br />P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero, A. Ayantunde<br />Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project: Research Planning Meeting <br />ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011<br />
    2. 2. Pastoralists and climate risk<br />OromiyaRegion, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens<br />
    3. 3. Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ.<br />
    4. 4. Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ<br />
    5. 5. Rainfall and NDVI<br />Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.<br />
    6. 6. Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality<br />Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya<br />Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya<br />
    7. 7. Forage available (kg/ha) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS<br />
    8. 8. Forage deviation (%) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS<br />
    9. 9.
    10. 10.
    11. 11. Climate Change<br />Image of the Future<br />
    12. 12. Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event<br />Ericksen et al, 2011<br />
    13. 13. Unpublished IRLI analysis<br />
    14. 14. East Africa:<br />Simulated plant funtional types:<br />(top) 20th century<br />(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)<br />Doherty et al 2009<br />
    15. 15.
    16. 16. Adaptation research priorities<br /><ul><li>Context of rapidly changing production systems and livelihood strategies
    17. 17. Will CC mean more or less livestock production in marginal areas (CC to Livestock keepers)?
    18. 18. What do the exposure thresholds mean for dryland areas?
    19. 19. Constraints on social/ econ/ institutional issues of adaptive capacity
    20. 20. Safety nets
    21. 21. Markets
    22. 22. Land tenure
    23. 23. SCENARIOS as a planning tool</li></li></ul><li>Thank you… <br />Photo: P. Little 2011<br />
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