Feeding the World in 2050
Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices
for the livestock sector
Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director Gene...
Key messages
3 Addressing
partial truths
and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector
will open opportunities
1 We’ll need ...
We need lots more food,
produced much more sustainably
1
By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat . . .
1bn tonnes more
cereals to 2050
1bn tonnes
dairy each yea...
The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional
cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands
Additional Grain...
Grown in more sustainable ways . . .
On the same amount of land . . .
And in face of big changes
- A hotter, often drier, more variable,
more unpredictable climate
- More stringent food qualit...
In brief,
we need
food systems
that are:
profitable
efficient
safe
nutritious
equitable
‘green’
For all
Roles of smallholders / livestock keepers
in global food security underestimated
2
Food insecurity and undernutrition remain persistent
Source: Frank Rijsberman/
CGIAR Consortium
4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
Per capita % animal-source foods in daily diets
Source: FAO, 2012 using 2005 data
Per capita global kilocalorie
availability from edible animal products
Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)
Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
Livestock demand is highest in developing countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Developing Countries Developed Countries
Meat
Mi...
Developing countries lead in global food production
Source: Herrero et al. 2009
Most global food
comes from crop-
and-live...
Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive
More than 70% of milk in India and 85% of milk in Kenya
is produced by small...
Growth scenarios for the livestock sector
Strong growth Fragile growth High growth
with externalities
Addressing partial truths / hard trade-offs
in livestock sector opens big opportunities
3
Food security is about staple cereals
• Food to many people means
staple cereals
(corn, rice, wheat)
• Grains, as well as ...
But . . .
• Animal-source foods
help meet global
nutritional & food needs
• Milk, meat, eggs provide
protein, energy,
micr...
Livestock compete with human food
• Half of the world’s
grain is used for
animal feed
• Feed crops are grown
on 0.5 billio...
But . . .
• Grazing systems, which
comprise 1/3 of the
Earth’s surface,
produce meat and milk
from grass and other
inedibl...
Importance of grazed biomass for livestock
Grass represents 50% of the biomass consumed by livestock
Herrero et al PNAS (i...
Meat and milk are bad for your health
More than
1 billion people
are overweight
and at risk from
associated cancers,
diabe...
But . . .
1 billion people
are
undernourished
Consumption of even
small amounts of
animal-source foods:
- combats undernut...
Livestock cause climate change
• Livestock contribute
12−18% of global GHGs
• Livestock emit methane,
the most potent GHG
...
But . . .
• Huge variations exist in
GHG emissions levels
• Developing countries
have as yet untapped
potential to mitigat...
Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the ...
Livestock production uses too much water
One-third of all
agricultural water
is used by the
livestock sector:
- 90% to gro...
But . . .
Developing countries
can greatly improve
‘livestock water productivity’
in production of milk and meat:
- By thr...
Livestock production degrades lands
65% of deforestation
in the Amazon is
caused by livestock-
related activities:
- 600,0...
But . . .
Rangelands, which cover
up to 40% of the Earth’s
surface, comprise a vast
carbon sink:
- With moderate
livestock...
Key messages
3 Addressing
partial truths
and hard trade-offs
in the livestock sector
will open opportunities
1 We’ll need ...
Last words
The developing world’s livestock
sector is diverse, changing, growing
This presents opportunities for
environme...
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given ...
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Feeding the World in 2050: Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices for the livestock sector

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Presented by Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General, at the 22nd International Grassland Congress, Sydney, Australia, 15−19 September 2013

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  • We need lots more food in the next 4 decadesand we need to produce it:- Profitably- Efficiently- SafelyEquitablyand- Without destroying the environment
  • All types of food are needed – diversity of foodSpecifically, the world will need: 1 billion tonnes more cereals to 2050 1 billion tonnes dairy products each year 460 million tonnes meat each year
  • How can we produce this new amount of food:Without damaging the environment?
  • On a fixed land base that is reaching its ecological limits,we will have to find ways to ‘intensify’ our agricultural production systems,getting more food from every bit of land.
  • We also need to do all this (already a tall order!) in the face of big new challenges and drivers:A hotter, often drier, more variable, much more unpredictable climateMore stringent food quality, safety standardsWidening gaps between rich and poorIncreasing urbanizationIncreasing threats of animal-human diseases
  • In brief,we need food systems that are:- profitable- efficient- safe- nutritious- equitable&-‘green’for- allThe shift to ‘food systems’Alongside increased attention to how the world will feed itself in the coming decades, there have been two other shifts in emphasis:from quantity at all costs, to sustainable quantities at acceptable quality.(1) Production of enough food is not enough: in addition, we must ensure that that food is produced in ways that are environmentally, socially and economically sustainable.(2) Defeating hunger by providing enough energy is not enough; balanced, wholesome nutrition must also be part of the solution.
  • Both livestock systems and smallholder farmers and herders play large −and largely unknown and underestimated −roles in feeding the world
  • Frank Rijsberman’s slide showing that 20 countries have alarming or extremely alarming levels of hunger
  • Animal-source foods are a big part of meeting global nutritional as well as food needs and demands.Of the world’s 7 billion people, only a small percentage are fed and nourished.It is a shocking indictment of the global food system that, in the 21st century, most of the world’s population have sub-optimal diets:1 billion going to bed hungry2 billion are vulnerable to food insecurity1 billion have diets that do not meet all their nutritional requirements1 billion suffer the effects of over-consumption
  • Significant amounts of the world’s food supply, both crop and livestock products, comes from systems in which livestock are important.A considerable amount of food is produced by smallholders:500 million smallholders support more than 2 billion people.In South Asia, more than 80% of farms are less than 2ha.In sub-Saharan Africa, smallholders contribute more than 80% of livestock production.Farms with a few ruminants, such as two cattle and half-a-dozen sheep or goats and 2ha of land, contribute 50-75% of total global livestock production.
  • Tackling partial truths and hard trade-offs about livestockwill help ‘green’ the sector,allowing it to sustain as well as intensify food productionAddressing these will let us see and exploit new opportunities.
  • Grazed grass is 48% of the total feed resources globally and 73% of the feed resources in developing countries.The importance of grazing in mixed systems is underestimated.Livestock in these systems consume 1 billion tonnes of grazed grass,about one-fifth of the biomass eaten by animals
  • The methane produced by livestock can be halved by doing very simple things,such as:improving the quality of the crop residue feedprocessing the feedgiving a slightly more balanced diet to livestock.
  • This new map of greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced,made by Mario Herrero, an agricultural systems analyst formerly of ILRI and now at CSIRO,shows that the current large inefficiencies in livestock production in developing countriesoffers great opportunities to make smallholder livestock systemsboth more productive and environmentally friendly.
  • There is a huge range in the amount of water used to produce livestock commodities and its because of vastly different production systems.BUT: differences can be as great as ten-fold between intensive and small-scale production systems in rich and poor countries.
  • Feeding the World in 2050: Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices for the livestock sector

    1. 1. Feeding the World in 2050 Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices for the livestock sector Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General 22nd International Grassland Congress 15−19 September 2013, Sydney, Australia
    2. 2. Key messages 3 Addressing partial truths and hard trade-offs in the livestock sector will open opportunities 1 We’ll need lots more food grown much more sustainably over the next 4 decades 2 Roles of smallholders /livestock keepers in food security underestimated
    3. 3. We need lots more food, produced much more sustainably 1
    4. 4. By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts of cereals, dairy and meat . . . 1bn tonnes more cereals to 2050 1bn tonnes dairy each year 460m tonnes meat each year
    5. 5. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands Additional Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million MT (IAASTD 2009)
    6. 6. Grown in more sustainable ways . . .
    7. 7. On the same amount of land . . .
    8. 8. And in face of big changes - A hotter, often drier, more variable, more unpredictable climate - More stringent food quality and safety standards - Widening gaps between rich and poor - Increasing threats of animal-to-human diseases - Increasing urbanization
    9. 9. In brief, we need food systems that are: profitable efficient safe nutritious equitable ‘green’ For all
    10. 10. Roles of smallholders / livestock keepers in global food security underestimated 2
    11. 11. Food insecurity and undernutrition remain persistent Source: Frank Rijsberman/ CGIAR Consortium
    12. 12. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
    13. 13. Per capita % animal-source foods in daily diets Source: FAO, 2012 using 2005 data
    14. 14. Per capita global kilocalorie availability from edible animal products Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)
    15. 15. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
    16. 16. Livestock demand is highest in developing countries 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Developing Countries Developed Countries Meat Milk Eggs Percentage increase 2000−2040 Source: IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
    17. 17. Developing countries lead in global food production Source: Herrero et al. 2009 Most global food comes from crop- and-livestock smallholders in developing countries
    18. 18. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive More than 70% of milk in India and 85% of milk in Kenya is produced by small-scale livestock keepers
    19. 19. Growth scenarios for the livestock sector Strong growth Fragile growth High growth with externalities
    20. 20. Addressing partial truths / hard trade-offs in livestock sector opens big opportunities 3
    21. 21. Food security is about staple cereals • Food to many people means staple cereals (corn, rice, wheat) • Grains, as well as tubers (potatoes, yams, cassava) and pulses (dried legumes), do dominate diets of the poor • They are relatively cheap and easy to store
    22. 22. But . . . • Animal-source foods help meet global nutritional & food needs • Milk, meat, eggs provide protein, energy, micronutrients • Livestock livelihoods are means to obtain: - Manure for soil fertility - Traction for cropping - Regular incomes - Employment for 1.3b
    23. 23. Livestock compete with human food • Half of the world’s grain is used for animal feed • Feed crops are grown on 0.5 billion ha • As much as 70% of the world’s agricultural land is related to livestock
    24. 24. But . . . • Grazing systems, which comprise 1/3 of the Earth’s surface, produce meat and milk from grass and other inedible materials • 70% of livestock diets on mixed farms are stover and other wastes / by-products of crop production
    25. 25. Importance of grazed biomass for livestock Grass represents 50% of the biomass consumed by livestock Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
    26. 26. Meat and milk are bad for your health More than 1 billion people are overweight and at risk from associated cancers, diabetes and cardiovascular disease
    27. 27. But . . . 1 billion people are undernourished Consumption of even small amounts of animal-source foods: - combats undernutrition - improves cognitive development - increases physical growth and activity
    28. 28. Livestock cause climate change • Livestock contribute 12−18% of global GHGs • Livestock emit methane, the most potent GHG • The developing world contributes 75% of global ruminant non-CO2 emissions: - 61% from mixed systems - 12% from grazing
    29. 29. But . . . • Huge variations exist in GHG emissions levels • Developing countries have as yet untapped potential to mitigate GHG emissions: - Through improved efficiencies (e.g., better feeds & feeding systems) - Through carbon sequestration on well- managed rangelands
    30. 30. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large livestock production inefficiencies in the developing world present an opportunity Herrero et al PNAS (in press)
    31. 31. Livestock production uses too much water One-third of all agricultural water is used by the livestock sector: - 90% to grow feeds - 10% for livestock drinking
    32. 32. But . . . Developing countries can greatly improve ‘livestock water productivity’ in production of milk and meat: - By three-fold through combinations of improved feed, water and animal management methods - By 45% through better management of rangelands
    33. 33. Livestock production degrades lands 65% of deforestation in the Amazon is caused by livestock- related activities: - 600,000 ha are deforested each year for planting crops that will feed livestock
    34. 34. But . . . Rangelands, which cover up to 40% of the Earth’s surface, comprise a vast carbon sink: - With moderate livestock grazing and good management, Africa’s rangelands alone could sequester 8.6 million tonnes of carbon each year
    35. 35. Key messages 3 Addressing partial truths and hard trade-offs in the livestock sector will open opportunities 1 We’ll need lots more food grown much more sustainably over the next 4 decades 2 Roles of smallholders /livestock keepers in food security underestimated
    36. 36. Last words The developing world’s livestock sector is diverse, changing, growing This presents opportunities for environmental harm and other ills It also offers us opportunities − perhaps our biggest opportunities − for influencing animal agriculture for the benefit of all
    37. 37. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org

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