Asian Livestock Challenges, Opportunities     and the Response    August 16‐17, 2012 Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok
Health at the livestock‐policy           interface                Jimmy Smith                 Director General     Interna...
OUTLINEGlobal trends in meat and milkLivestock and their keepersMain drivers of demand and supplyLivestock and the “3 heal...
ILRI •a member of the CGIAR Consortium which conducts livestock, food and environmental research       to help alleviate p...
Outline• Global trends in meat and milk  – Livestock and their keepers  – Main drivers of demand and supply
Livestock in developing countries 70% of the world’s livestock (18.5 billion head) are in DCs       •   15 billion poultry...
Livestock keepers in developing countries  One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock  70% of the rural and ...
Role of poor livestock‐keepers as agriculture    transitions from traditional to urbanizedDevelopment       %agric in  %_L...
Structure of poultry sector in Cambodia,         Vietnam and Thailand                                                     ...
Into the future: demand driven revolutionThe 4 billion people wholive on less than $10 a day(primarily in developingcountr...
Global Meat Trends 1990-2009    Production       Trade
Outline•Livestock and the “3 healths”  – Human health & nutrition  – Animal health  – Ecosystem health
Health of people, livestock and       ecosystems are interdependent                              ONE HEALTH               ...
Health One a: Livestock and nutrition Across a range of developing countries, livestock contribute 6- 36% of protein and 2...
Health One b: Livestock and human                   health•   60% of human diseases shared with animals (Taylor et al, Woo...
Health two: livestock health•   Transboundary disease e.g. PPR, CSF, ND, FMD     – Most are controlled in developed countr...
Annual losses from selected diseases –         Africa and South Asia           Estimates from BMGF
Some more recent estimates of animal      disease costs & losses
Health Three: Agro-ecosystem health• Livestock a source of green house gases• Livestock feed competes with staple crops an...
Additional food needed                  1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to                  2050 to meet food...
Production efficiency – developed countries                  Feed, breed,                     health =                   4...
Climate change         What will happen to feed resources?              diseases? productivity?Average projected % change ...
Outline• Prescription: Sustainable intensification
Sustainable intensification:prescriptions for human healthManage disease at the animalsource not the human victimInvest in...
Sustainable intensification:prescriptions for animal healthSupport smallholder systems to improveproduction and productivi...
Sustainable intensification:prescriptions for ecosystem health Managing externalities Improvements in ruminant production ...
Key Advice to Policy-Makers• Surveillance: “Re-incentivise disease  reporting”• Resource allocation: “Base allocation  on ...
Conclusion   The big picture• Feeding the world  is possible• Sustaining the natural   resource base is possible• Reducing...
Health at the livestock‐policy interface
Health at the livestock‐policy interface
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Health at the livestock‐policy interface

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Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Workshop on Asian Livestock: Challenges, opportunities and the Response, Bangkok, 16‐17 August 2012

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Health at the livestock‐policy interface

  1. 1. Asian Livestock Challenges, Opportunities  and the Response August 16‐17, 2012 Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok
  2. 2. Health at the livestock‐policy  interface Jimmy Smith Director General International Livestock Research Institute August 16‐17, 2012 Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok
  3. 3. OUTLINEGlobal trends in meat and milkLivestock and their keepersMain drivers of demand and supplyLivestock and the “3 healths”Human health & nutritionAnimal healthEcosystem healthSome prescriptions and policy advice
  4. 4. ILRI •a member of the CGIAR Consortium which conducts livestock, food and environmental research to help alleviate poverty and increase food security, while protecting the natural resource base. India Mali700 staff54% from developingcountriesmore than 30 scientificdisciplines China2012 budget USD 60 million VietnamILRI works with a range ofresearch & developmentpartners Laosacross 7 CGIAR researchprograms Nigeria Mozambique Kenya Ethiopia Thailand
  5. 5. Outline• Global trends in meat and milk – Livestock and their keepers – Main drivers of demand and supply
  6. 6. Livestock in developing countries 70% of the world’s livestock (18.5 billion head) are in DCs • 15 billion poultry: (70% in Asia) • 1.6 billion shoats: (44% in Asia) • 1.2 billion bovines: (49% in Asia) • 0.6 billion pigs: (84% in Asia) Density of poor livestock keepers Faostat, 2012
  7. 7. Livestock keepers in developing countries One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock 70% of the rural and 25% of the urban poor depend on livestock 600 million in south Asia 300 million in sub Saharan Africa 0 or no data Density of poor livestock keepers ILRI, 2012
  8. 8. Role of poor livestock‐keepers as agriculture  transitions from traditional to urbanizedDevelopment  %agric in  %_Livestock in  Demand for livestock  Smallholder rolesstage GDP agric GDP productsTraditional  30‐50 15‐45 Rural and urban poor – Smallholders agricultural  small quantities competitive; societies informal marketsTransforming 15‐25 18‐50 Increased quantity societies demandedUrbanized  6‐9 30‐50 Quantity but especially  Complex value societies quality demands chains; vertical  coordination; smallholders not  competitive unless  where labour and  inputs benefit Smallholders have  advantages – but not  everywhere 8
  9. 9. Structure of poultry sector in Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand Adapted from Otte et al., 2008 Cambodia Vietnam Thailand GDP $2,850 GDP $3,005 GDP $8,000 Ag GDP 39% Ag GDP 21% Ag GDP 11% But smallholder systems can persist even when intensive systems take off
  10. 10. Into the future: demand driven revolutionThe 4 billion people wholive on less than $10 a day(primarily in developingcountries), represent a foodmarket of about US$ 2.9trillion per year.(Hammond et al 2007).Consumption of meatand milk in developingcountries is forecast toincrease faster than thatfor any crop product(IAASTD 2007). Rosegrant et al. 2009
  11. 11. Global Meat Trends 1990-2009 Production Trade
  12. 12. Outline•Livestock and the “3 healths” – Human health & nutrition – Animal health – Ecosystem health
  13. 13. Health of people, livestock and ecosystems are interdependent ONE HEALTH EcoHealth Livestock Human health Human health Cultures health Societies Economies Institutions Wildlife health Agroecosystem healthAdapted from EstherSchelling, STI
  14. 14. Health One a: Livestock and nutrition Across a range of developing countries, livestock contribute 6- 36% of protein and 2-12% of calories (Nzuma & Randolph, 2008) Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber et al, 2007) Fish account for half the animal protein for the 400 million poorest people in Africa and South Asia (FAO, 2009). Small amounts of animal source foods have large benefits on child growth, cognition & pregnancy outcomes (Neumann et al, 2003) A small number of countries bear most of the burden of malnutrition One billion people are hungry but 2 billion are over-nourished:
  15. 15. Health One b: Livestock and human health• 60% of human diseases shared with animals (Taylor et al, Woolhose et al)• 75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic (Jones et al,)• 25% of the human infectious disease burden in least developed countries is zoonotic (12%) or recently emerged (13%) from animals (Grace et al,)• The top 13 zoonoses are responsible for at least 2.4 billion cases of illness and 2.2 million human deaths each year (ILRI, 2012)• Emerging zoonotic diseases associated with intensive systems with hotspots in western US and western Europe (ILRI, 2012)• High burden of neglected zoonotic diseases associated with poor livestock keepers with hotspots in India, Nigeria and Ethiopia (ILRI, 2012)
  16. 16. Health two: livestock health• Transboundary disease e.g. PPR, CSF, ND, FMD – Most are controlled in developed countries: avoidable losses – Massive under-reporting in poor countries: estimated 99.8% of notifiable disease cases are not reported (ILRI 2012)• Endemic disease e.g. parasites, viral diarrhoea and respiratory disease, reproductive disease, lameness, mastitis – Parasitic diseases are mainly a problem of smallholder systems, production diseases of intensive systems – Some estimate more costly than TAD (BMGF, 2012)• Emerging disease (most are TAD) e.g. HPAI, PRRS, BT in Europe – Exotic diseases are at home somewhere in the globe: many in Africa – As we speak, ASF in 2 European countries. Ebola outbreak E Africa – Cost $80 billion between 1997-2009 (World Bank 2012)
  17. 17. Annual losses from selected diseases – Africa and South Asia Estimates from BMGF
  18. 18. Some more recent estimates of animal disease costs & losses
  19. 19. Health Three: Agro-ecosystem health• Livestock a source of green house gases• Livestock feed competes with staple crops and biofuel and other uses of water• Livestock a source of disease spillover to wildlife• But an important source of organic matter for soil fertility• Permanent pastures potentially important for carbon sequestration• Production efficiency key to reducing C footprints
  20. 20. Additional food needed 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to  2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Additional grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 HumanLivestock consumption430 million MTMonogastrics mostly 458 million MT Biofuels 160 million MT
  21. 21. Production efficiency – developed countries Feed, breed,  health = 4 fold milk  increase 23 Capper et al., 2009
  22. 22. Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity?Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050 Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
  23. 23. Outline• Prescription: Sustainable intensification
  24. 24. Sustainable intensification:prescriptions for human healthManage disease at the animalsource not the human victimInvest in One Health systems forzoonoses prevention and controlPromote risk-based and incentive-based food safety system
  25. 25. Sustainable intensification:prescriptions for animal healthSupport smallholder systems to improveproduction and productivityAnimal health services Innovation, technology,multiple stakeholdersA whole-value-chain-development approach Consumers Major intervention with development partners Value chain development team + research partners
  26. 26. Sustainable intensification:prescriptions for ecosystem health Managing externalities Improvements in ruminant production – large production gaps for ruminants in developing world Reduced livestock-induced deforestation Manure management (feed additives, methane production, regulations for manure disposal) Livestock systems in PES –including carbon credits
  27. 27. Key Advice to Policy-Makers• Surveillance: “Re-incentivise disease reporting”• Resource allocation: “Base allocation on Multiple Burden Approach”• Delivery: “Health is too important to leave to doctors”• Cross-cutting: “Support innovations at all levels”
  28. 28. Conclusion The big picture• Feeding the world is possible• Sustaining the natural  resource base is possible• Reducing absolute  poverty is possible• Improving the health of  •Acknowledgements: ILRI research included in this presentation  people, animals and the was funded by a number of donors •Contributors: Delia Grace, Mario Herrero, Derek Baker, Tom  planet is possible Randolph, Shirley Tarawali, Jeff Gilbert and others
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